股价涨跌幅前五名为：华创云信、锦龙股份、国金证券、华林证券、天风证券。 股价涨跌幅后五名为：海通证券、国泰君安、兴业证券、东方证券、广发证券。 本周投资策略： 活跃中或孕育着调整 ——证券行业周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈 2025 年 1 月份居民消费价格同比上涨 0.5% 2025 年 1 月份，全国居民消费价 格同比上涨 0.5%。其中，城市上涨 0.6%，农村上涨 0.3%；食品价格上涨 0.4%， 非食品价格上涨 0.5%；消费品价格上涨 0.1%，服务价格上涨 1.1%。1 月份，全 国居民消费价格环比上涨 0.7%。其中，城市上涨 0.8%，农村上涨 0.5%；食品 价格上涨 1.3%，非食品价格上涨 0.6%；消费品价格上涨 0.6%，服务价格上涨 0.9%。 市场回顾： 上周（2.5-2.7）沪深 300 指数的涨跌幅为 1.98%，申万二级行业指数证券行业涨 跌幅为 4.04%。板块内个股 49 家上涨，1 家下跌。 证券板块个股周度表现： 上周证券行业指数涨跌幅领先于沪深 300 指数，行业内个股 49 家上涨，显示证 券类个股依然高度活跃。我们认为证券行业上周的上涨来自于市场预期的转暖， ...

行 业 研 究 新能源上网电价改革 助推行业新发展 ——电力设备行业研究周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈：新能源上网电价改革 助推行业新发展 一是有利于推动新能源行业高质量发展。新能源上网电价全面由市场形成，存量 增量分类实施支持措施，有利于形成真实的市场价格，促进电力资源高效配置， 引导新能源行业健康有序发展。 二是有利于促进新型电力系统建设。新能源入市交易后，将公平承担电力系统调 节成本，各类电源在电力系统中的价值将得到更充分体现，更好引导新能源与调 节电源、电网协调发展，助力构建更加高效协同的新型电力系统。 三是有利于加快建设全国统一电力市场。改革后，新能源与煤电等一样进入电力 市场、上网电价均由市场形成，电力市场化交易进一步扩围，同时各地电力市场 规则将按照国家要求相应完善，能够极大促进全国统一电力市场建设。 行情回顾： 电力设备行业本周涨跌幅为 4.18%，在申万 31 个一级行业中，排在第 7 位。 电力设备行业本周跑赢沪深 300。本周上证指数、沪深 300、深证成指、创业板 指的涨跌幅分别为 1.63%、1.98%、4.13%、5.36%。 在细分行业中，电机 II、其他电源设备 II、光伏设备、风 ...

行 业 研 究 节后商品猪出栏均价承压 仔猪均价连续 周环比上涨 每周一谈： 节后商品猪出栏均价承压 仔猪均价连续周环比上涨 商品猪出栏均价周环比下跌，仔猪均价周环比上涨 商品猪出栏均重周环比上涨，标肥价差较春节前走阔 钢联样本养殖场 1 月实际出栏量月环比减少 9.06%，2 月计划出栏量月环比减少 12.90%。根据钢联 173 家规模养殖场样本数据，2025 年 1 月实际出栏量月环比 减少 9.06%，2 月计划出栏量 1117.00 万头、月环比减少 12.90%，预计与春节 错期等因素有关。 根据 wind 截至 1 月 24 日数据，自繁自养头均养殖利润 134.32 元/头，利润较前 一周环比减少 23.00 元/头，外购仔猪头均养殖亏损 28.52 元/头，亏损较前一周 减少 15.13 元/头。 投资策略： ——农林牧渔行业研究周报 | | | 投资摘要： 王伟 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1660524100001 行业基本资料 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-02 2024-05 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料 ...

市场有所回暖 ——申港证券策略周报 投资摘要： 投资策略： 上周跟踪的市场五大指数全面收涨，显示春节之后市场低位买入力量有所增 强，DeepSeek 引发投资热情高涨。我们认为当前市场受到春节档假期电影消 费娱乐市场和大模型的双重提振，后市有望推动指数进一步上行拓展空间。 风险提示：市场波动风险、政策风险。 2025 年 2 月 10 日 | 徐广福 分析师 | | --- | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1660524030001 | 大盘基本资料 | 股票家数 | 5405 | | --- | --- | | 大盘平均市盈率 | 12.55 | 大盘表现走势图 -16% -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 2024-02 2024-05 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 上证指数 沪深300 资料来源： wind ，申港证券研究所 相关报告 1、《节前交易或趋于平稳：申港证券策略 周报》2025-01-22 2、《关注业绩支撑：申港证券策略周报》 2025-01-20 3、《弱势格局或将延续：申港证券策略周 报》2025-01-13 4、《临近年末 稳健操作：申港证券策略周 报》20 ...

行 业 研 究 春节消费平稳回升 龙头酒企控货显理性 ——食品饮料行业研究周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈：春节消费平稳回升 龙头酒企控货显理性 春节出行数据同比回升，餐饮等消费稳定复苏。根据交通运输部数据，2025 年 1 月 14 日春运首日至 2 月 2 日春运第 20 天，中国全社会跨区域人员流动 量预计达到 48 亿人次，较 2024 年同期总量增长 7.2%。根据新华网援引商务 部数据，2025 年春节假期前四天，全国重点零售与餐饮企业销售额同比提升 5.4%、略超过 2024 年国庆假期表现（同比增长 4.5%），重点监测的餐饮企业 营业额同比增长 5.1%。春节假期前四天，重点监测零售企业家电、通讯器材 销售额同比增长 10%以上，或部分受益此前促消费补贴政策拉动。预计整体 春节消费同比稳定增长，我们认为后续宏观增量政策空间或主要在于促消费领 域，食品饮料各子行业需求改善可期。同时，宏观经济指标中社零和 CPI 等 有望提振，或将带动消费板块投资情绪回升。 龙头企业春节销售季控货显理性，行业延续分化趋势。根据酒业家消息，在 2025 年开年之际，五粮液在多地对第八代五粮液（普五）停止供货。另外， 公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - TSMC's fourth-quarter performance is strong, driven by high-performance computing and smartphones, with revenue reaching NT$868.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.3% [2][28] - TSMC's AI-related revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 40% over the next five years [3][31] - The U.S. has intensified sanctions on semiconductor exports to China, particularly targeting advanced processors, which may accelerate the domestic semiconductor industry's development [4][32] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shenwan Electronics Industry Index rose by 4.08% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.94% [1][12] - Among the sub-industries, analog chip design, semiconductor materials, discrete devices, brand consumer electronics, and electronic chemicals showed strong performance, exceeding the CSI 300 Index by 8.12%, 6.22%, 5.48%, 4.20%, and 3.29% respectively [1][18] Company Performance - TSMC's Q4 2024 gross margin reached 59.0%, exceeding the upper limit of its performance outlook, with a net profit margin of 49.0% [2][28] - The sales proportion of 7nm and below processes increased to 74% in Q4 2024, up from 69% in Q3 2024, indicating a strong trend towards advanced manufacturing processes [2][28] Industry Dynamics - The U.S. has implemented new export controls on chips with over 30 billion transistors produced at 14nm/16nm nodes, affecting major manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung [4][32] - The report suggests that these sanctions will likely shift high-performance chip manufacturing towards domestic firms, benefiting local equipment and advanced packaging sectors [4][32] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on leading foundries, semiconductor equipment, and materials companies such as North Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and others, driven by domestic substitution and AI demand [4][32]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industry, particularly focusing on the recovery of pig prices and the profitability of leading farming enterprises [29][30]. Core Insights - The price of piglets has rapidly increased week-on-week, while daily slaughter volumes are slightly lower than the same period last year [10][29]. - The average selling price of commodity pigs has decreased by 0.64% week-on-week, currently at 15.58 CNY/kg, while the average price of piglets has risen by 10.71% to 448.10 CNY/head [16][29]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the actual slaughter volume, which rose by 11.14% week-on-week, indicating a strong demand ahead of the Spring Festival [24][29]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The actual slaughter volume in December increased by 13.29% month-on-month, with a planned slaughter volume of 12.82 million heads in January, reflecting a 1.39% month-on-month growth [25]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs is reported at 157.32 CNY/head, although it has decreased by 45.24 CNY from the previous week [27]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on leading enterprises with scale and cost advantages in pig farming, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [30][32]. - In the poultry sector, it suggests monitoring companies with proprietary breeding sources like Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [32]. Market Performance - The agricultural sector index rose by 3.89%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.75% during the week [34]. - The report notes that the feed sector and aquaculture have shown significant gains, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural market [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [7] Core Viewpoints - The current downtrend in raw milk prices has been more severe than expected, leading to continuous pressure on the performance of listed dairy and livestock companies. However, since Q3 2024, there has been a gradual improvement in raw milk prices, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [6][18] - The supply-demand imbalance has been a significant challenge, with milk consumption growth slowing down post-pandemic, resulting in negative growth in 2022 and 2023. The report anticipates that the oversupply situation will gradually ease, leading to a more balanced supply-demand dynamic in 2025 [2][3][41] Summary by Sections 1. Raw Milk Price Downtrend and Performance Pressure - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.12 RMB/kg as of January 2, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.80%. The current downtrend has lasted nearly three and a half years, with prices dropping by 28.77% from their peak [15][18] - The performance of listed dairy companies has been adversely affected, with significant inventory write-downs and credit impairment losses impacting profitability [20][21] 2. Review of Raw Milk Cycle - The report identifies three cycles in the domestic raw milk market, with the current cycle starting in mid-2021. The previous cycles were marked by significant events such as the melamine scandal and rapid import growth, which have shaped the industry's dynamics [30][31] - The current cycle has seen a substantial increase in milk production capacity, leading to an oversupply situation exacerbated by declining consumer demand [37][39] 3. Supply Reduction and Industry Recovery Outlook - The report indicates that the gap between raw milk supply and demand is beginning to narrow, with expectations for a gradual recovery in the industry as supply constraints take effect. The number of dairy cows has been decreasing, and the overall supply is projected to decline in 2024 [3][41] - The performance of listed dairy companies showed signs of marginal improvement in Q3 2024, with revenue declines slowing and net profit showing a slight increase compared to previous quarters [4][22] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Yili and New Dairy Industry, which are expected to benefit from valuation recovery and ongoing performance improvements. The potential for dividend income is also highlighted as a key investment consideration [6][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [3] Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing a strong performance with 2024 sales expected to reach a historical high, driven by continuous new model releases and sustained consumer demand [1][9] - Total vehicle sales in December reached 3.489 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, with cumulative sales for 2024 projected at 31.436 million units, reflecting a 4.5% growth [1][9] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 45.8% in December, with NEV sales for 2024 expected to be 12.866 million units, a 35.5% increase year-on-year [1][9] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Discussion: 2024 Automotive Sales Reach New Highs - December 2024 saw nationwide automotive sales of 3.489 million units, up 10.5% year-on-year [1][9] - Cumulative sales for 2024 are projected at 31.436 million units, marking a 4.5% increase [1][9] - The inventory situation shows a comprehensive dealer inventory coefficient of 1.1, down 5% year-on-year [1][9] - NEV sales in December were 1.596 million units, a 34% increase, with a penetration rate of 45.8% [1][9] 2. Investment Strategy and Key Focus - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies in the automotive sector, particularly in the NEV space, such as BYD, Changan Automobile, and Li Auto [2][22] - Key companies to watch include those with stable performance and low valuations, like Huayu Automotive and Fuyao Glass [2][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of strong automakers driving demand for core components, highlighting companies like Top Group and Wencan [2][22] 3. Market Review - The automotive sector's weekly performance was a 4.57% increase, ranking 8th among 31 sectors [7][24] - The automotive industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, which saw a 2.14% increase [7][24] - The top-performing stocks in the automotive sector included Jun Chuang Technology and Tai Xiang Shares [7][24]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the five major indices tracked last week all experienced gains, reflecting strong buying power at low levels, and the market remains in a broad oscillation pattern [2][10][20] - It is noted that as the year-end approaches and with the long holiday for the Spring Festival, increased uncertainty may lead to a generally stable trading performance before the holiday [2][20] - The average price-to-earnings ratio of the market is reported at 12.44, with a total of 5,399 stocks listed [5][21] Group 2 - Last week, the performance of major indices was as follows: CSI 300 increased by 2.14%, Shanghai Composite Index by 2.31%, Shenzhen Component Index by 3.73%, ChiNext Index by 4.66%, and CSI 500 by 4.06% [10][11] - All 31 first-level industry indices tracked by Shenwan experienced gains, with the top five performing industries being social services, media, computer, communication, and machinery equipment [11][12] - The total trading volume was 5,185.25 billion shares, with a trading value of 60,041.56 billion yuan, and 4,924 stocks rose while 444 fell [12][13] Group 3 - As of last weekend, 11 stocks reached historical highs while 5 reached historical lows, with 237, 115, and 71 stocks hitting new highs over the past 30, 60, and 120 days respectively [14][15] - The margin trading data shows a weekly increase in financing balance of approximately 6.9 billion yuan and a decrease in the margin balance of about 0.1 billion yuan [14][15]