Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the securities industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in the securities industry index outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, indicating a significant rebound in the market, although this does not necessarily imply a resolution of valuation pressures [3][26] - The report highlights the importance of matching industry growth rates with valuations in the short term [3][26] - The People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have initiated measures to stabilize the capital market, including a focus on stock buybacks and increased financing options for listed companies [9][10] Market Review - For the week of January 13-17, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 2.14%, while the securities industry index increased by 3.96%, with all stocks in the sector showing gains [11][12] - The top five performing stocks in the securities sector were Guosheng Jinkong, Jinlong Co., Dongfang Caifu, Northeast Securities, and Hatou Co. [12][13] Weekly Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the recent rise in the securities industry is likely a reflection of overall market recovery rather than a decrease in valuation pressure, emphasizing the need to consider growth and valuation alignment [3][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China showed stable growth, with December 2024 sales reaching 1.596 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and an annual total of 12.865 million units, up 35.5% [11][12] - The penetration rate of NEVs reached 45.7% in December 2024, with an annual penetration rate of 40.9% [11] - The total installed capacity of power batteries in December 2024 was 75.4 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57%, with a cumulative total of 549 GWh for the year, up 41% [12] - The report expresses optimism for the NEV market's development in 2025 as manufacturers accelerate their transition to new energy [11] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicle Sales - NEV sales in December 2024 were 1.596 million units, a 34% increase year-on-year, with a total of 12.865 million units sold in 2024, marking a 35.5% increase [11] 2. Power Battery Installation - The power battery installation volume in December 2024 was 75.4 GWh, a 57% year-on-year increase, with a total of 549 GWh for the year, reflecting a 41% growth [12] 3. Types of Power Batteries - In December 2024, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery installations reached 61 GWh, accounting for 81% of total installations, with a year-on-year growth of 95%. In contrast, ternary battery installations were 14.3 GWh, down 13.9% [18] - For the entire year, LFP battery installations totaled 409 GWh (75% of total), up 57%, while ternary batteries reached 138.9 GWh (25% of total), up 10% [18] 4. Leading Companies in Power Battery Installation - In December 2024, CATL's battery installation volume was 34.3 GWh (45% of total), up 61% year-on-year, while BYD's was 17.5 GWh (23% of total), up 59% [29] - For 2024, CATL's total battery installations were 246 GWh (45% of total), a 47% increase, and BYD's were 135 GWh (25% of total), up 28% [29] 5. Market Performance - The power equipment industry experienced a weekly increase of 3.66%, ranking 15th among 31 primary industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index [42] - The weekly performance of sub-sectors included significant gains in electric motors, other power equipment, photovoltaic equipment, and wind power equipment [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [7] Core Insights - The increase in banquet reservations is expected to support the consumption of liquor during the Spring Festival, with a notable growth in wedding bookings across various regions in 2025, ranging from 20% to 70% compared to 2024 [1][20] - The white liquor industry is currently facing price and inventory pressures, with a trend towards differentiation among brands. The market is expected to undergo a destocking cycle despite short-term sales increases during peak seasons [2][20] - The report highlights a cautious attitude from foreign investors towards the macro consumption outlook, as evidenced by a decrease in holdings in the food and beverage sector [3][22] Summary by Sections Market Review - The food and beverage index fell by 3.46% in the week of January 6-10, ranking 29th among 31 industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.33% [12] - Year-to-date, the food and beverage index has also decreased by 6.63%, ranking 18th among 31 industries [12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests identifying investment targets in the white liquor sector based on scene engagement, regional optimization, channel clearing, and dividend rate enhancement. Key brands to watch include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [5][31] - It also recommends focusing on beer companies like Yanjing Beer that may benefit from operational improvements and cost reductions [31] - In the condiment sector, companies like Haitian Flavoring and Angel Yeast are highlighted for their resilient performance [31] Industry Dynamics - The report notes a significant increase in the opening of new outlets for Wuliang Spring in Xi'an, with a 117% growth in bottle openings compared to 2023 [32] - The report also mentions that the overall price of liquor and beverages has seen a decline, with a 1.2% year-on-year decrease in December 2024 [35]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the automotive industry, indicating a recovery trend supported by government policies and market conditions [4][12]. Core Insights - The recent policy announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance aims to enhance the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement program, particularly for electric buses and battery updates, increasing subsidies from 60,000 yuan to 80,000 yuan per vehicle [1][9]. - The scope of vehicle scrappage subsidies has been expanded to include certain fuel vehicles meeting the National IV emission standards, with specific subsidies for consumers trading in older vehicles for new energy or low-displacement fuel vehicles [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued leading companies in the automotive sector, particularly those involved in electric and intelligent vehicle technologies, as well as domestic replacement opportunities arising from the "domestic circulation" strategy [12][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Updates - The government has increased subsidies for electric buses and battery replacements, with an average subsidy of 80,000 yuan per vehicle for those over 8 years old [1][9]. - The eligibility for scrappage subsidies has been broadened to include older fuel vehicles, with specific subsidy amounts for new energy vehicles and low-displacement fuel vehicles [2][10]. 2. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on undervalued leading companies in the automotive sector, including BYD, Changan Automobile, and Geely, as well as stable component manufacturers like Huayu Automotive and Fuyao Glass [4][12]. - Key investment targets include companies with a first-mover advantage in the new energy sector and those benefiting from domestic replacement trends [12][14]. 3. Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 1.31%, while major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 saw declines [15][18]. - The report highlights the top-performing stocks in the automotive sector, indicating a positive market sentiment [15][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the securities industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The securities industry is currently facing high valuation pressures and future performance growth challenges, indicating a need for short-term digestion of these pressures [3][25] - The recent meeting held by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the importance of capital market reform and development, aiming for a stable and healthy market environment [11][12] Market Review - During the week of January 6 to January 10, the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.13%, while the securities industry index fell by 2.22%, with 4 stocks rising and 46 stocks declining within the sector [2][14] - The top five performing stocks in the securities sector were Dongxing Securities, Hongta Securities, Tianfeng Securities, Haitong Securities, and Changjiang Securities, while the bottom five were Jinlong Co., Harbin Investment, Huaxi Securities, Shouchuang Securities, and Huaxin Securities [15][16] Industry Fundamentals - The industry consists of 50 listed companies, with an average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.25, compared to the market average P/E ratio of 12.26 [6][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The price of silicon wafers continues to rise due to supply shortages, with N-type G10L wafers reaching an average transaction price of 1.18 yuan per piece, a 7.27% increase, and N-type G12 wafers at 1.55 yuan per piece, a 9.15% increase [1][10] - The increase in silicon wafer prices is primarily driven by strong demand from downstream buyers and accelerated inventory turnover among suppliers [1][10] - Battery prices are also rising, with M10 single crystal TOPCon battery prices increasing to 0.29 yuan/W, a 1.75% increase, while module prices remain stable due to high inventory levels [2][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Silicon wafer prices are experiencing significant increases due to supply-demand imbalances, with various sizes showing notable price hikes [1][10] - Integrated companies are resuming production due to favorable profit margins from previously accumulated raw materials [1][10] Market Review - The electric equipment industry saw a weekly decline of 1.33%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and other major indices [6][16] - Specific segments within the industry, such as electric motors and photovoltaic equipment, showed varying performance, with some segments experiencing gains [6][16] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that ongoing domestic policies aimed at eliminating outdated production capacity will benefit the photovoltaic industry, potentially leading to cost reductions in silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules [5][14] - Recommended companies to watch include Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar, which are well-positioned in the integrated supply chain and battery technology [5][14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the agricultural, forestry, and fishery industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that piglet prices have risen for two consecutive weeks, while the average price of commodity pigs has decreased [1][16] - The average price of commodity pigs fell by 2.55% week-on-week, reaching 15.68 CNY/kg as of January 10 [19] - The average price of piglets increased by 4.42% week-on-week, reaching 404.76 CNY/head, indicating a recovery in the breeding sector's sentiment [19][32] - The report suggests that companies with cost advantages and scale in pig farming will have a competitive edge as pig prices stabilize and improve [34] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average price of commodity pigs decreased by 2.55% week-on-week, while piglet prices increased by 4.42% [19][32] - The average price of culling sows rose by 2.20% week-on-week, reaching 11.60 CNY/kg [19] Production and Slaughter Data - The average weight of commodity pigs at slaughter decreased by 0.28% week-on-week, with an average weight of 122.98 kg [29] - Daily slaughter volume has decreased by 3.39% week-on-week, although it remains higher than the same period last year [29] Profitability Insights - The average profit for self-bred pigs is 202.56 CNY/head, an increase of 33.74 CNY/head from the previous week, while losses for purchased piglets decreased to 33.62 CNY/head [32] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in pig farming such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others that have scale and cost advantages [35][10] - In the poultry sector, it suggests looking at companies with proprietary breeding sources like Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [36] - For the animal health sector, it recommends companies benefiting from the upward pig cycle, including Biocause and other leading veterinary drug firms [37]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is experiencing a weak trend, with major indices showing a decline, suggesting a cautious and conservative investor sentiment [2][21]. - The five major indices tracked last week all experienced declines, with the CSI 300 down by 1.13%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.02%, the ChiNext Index down by 2.02%, and the CSI 500 down by 1.08% [10][21]. - Among the 31 primary industry indices, 8 showed an increase while 23 declined, with the top five performing sectors being comprehensive, home appliances, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and machinery equipment [11][21]. Group 2 - The total trading volume last week was 522.133 billion shares, with a trading value of 5.71044 trillion yuan, indicating a significant market activity [12][13]. - The number of stocks reaching historical highs was 10, while 6 stocks reached historical lows, with 98, 67, and 56 stocks hitting new highs over the past 30, 60, and 120 days respectively [15][16]. - Margin trading data shows a weekly decrease in financing balance of approximately 21.5 billion yuan, while the margin short balance increased by about 600 million yuan [16][21].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 13.60 CNY based on a 20x PE for 2025 [4][6]. Core Views - The report indicates that 2024 will be a year of bottoming out for the photovoltaic industry, with a need for breakthroughs as pessimism continues to release [1][55]. - Demand for photovoltaic power generation is expected to continue to be released due to its economic viability [1][62]. - The battery and component segments are anticipated to rebound first, with the company positioned as a leader in BC battery technology [2][3][77]. Summary by Sections 1. Photovoltaic Industry Sentiment - The report highlights a significant decline in prices for polysilicon, silicon materials, and battery cells in the first half of 2024, with stabilization expected in the second half [12][13]. - The photovoltaic battery and component sectors experienced a revenue drop of 24.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit loss of 103.5 billion CNY [23][24]. 2. Policy Constraints and Supply - Recent domestic policies aim to eliminate outdated production capacity and prevent disorderly expansion in supply, which may accelerate the industry's bottoming out and lead to high-quality development [59][60]. 3. Economic Viability of Photovoltaic Power - The cost of photovoltaic power generation (LCOE) has decreased significantly, making it more competitive than fossil fuels, which is expected to stimulate demand [61][62]. - Global photovoltaic installations reached 345.8 GW in 2023, a 74% increase year-on-year, indicating strong industry demand [66][67]. 4. Rebound in Battery and Component Segments - Battery prices have started to rebound, with TOPCon battery prices increasing by 1.9% and 1.1% for different models between October and December 2024 [77]. - The report emphasizes that the cost reductions in industrial silicon and polysilicon will likely enhance profit margins for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [84].

2024 年 12 月 30 日 大盘平均市盈率 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-01 2024-04 2024-06 2024-09 2024-12 上证指数 沪深300 1、《谨防高位波动 注意仓位控制：申港证 券策略周报》2024-12-24 2、《短期或高位整理：申港证券策略周报》 2024-12-19 3、《短期或高位整理 提防波幅加大：申港 证券策略周报》2024-12-12 4、《短期市场或高位整理：申港证券策略 周报》2024-12-04 5、《谨慎心态占据上风：申港证券策略周 报》2024-11-26 上周申万 31 个一级行业中，10 个一级行业指数上涨，21 个一级行业指数 下跌。涨跌幅排名前五的行业分别是银行、石油石化、公用事业、交通运输、 家用电器。涨跌幅排名后五的行业分别是传媒、社会服务、计算机、纺织服 饰、房地产。 风险提示：市场波动风险、政策风险。 内容目录 2 / 7 上周各主要指数表现分别为：沪深300涨跌幅为1.36%，上证指数涨跌幅为0.95%， 深证成指涨跌幅为 0.13%，创业板涨跌幅为-0.22%，中证 500 涨跌幅为-0.30%。 ...