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农林牧渔行业研究周报:商品猪出栏均价走弱,我国对美农产品加征关税-2025-03-12
Shengang Securities· 2025-03-12 15:08
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The average price of commodity pigs has weakened, with a week-on-week decline of 0.07%, currently at 14.45 CNY/kg. The average price of piglets remained stable after three weeks of decline [8][18] - The planned slaughter volume for March is expected to increase by 2.74% month-on-month, indicating increased market supply pressure [3][27] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on certain agricultural products, which may affect domestic prices and increase costs for downstream industries [4][32] Summary by Sections Commodity Pig Prices - The average price of commodity pigs has decreased by 0.07% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets has remained stable [8][18] - The average weight of commodity pigs at slaughter has increased, with an average of 123.61 kg, up 0.08% week-on-week [26] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, with a total of 40.62 million sows reported in January, down by 160,000 from the previous month [3][27] - The planned slaughter volume for March is 11.4759 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.74% [3][27] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The average profit for self-bred pigs is 33.56 CNY/head, down by 9.52 CNY from the previous week, while the average loss for purchased piglets is 12.52 CNY/head, a decrease of 21.91 CNY [28] - The price ratio of culling sows to commodity pigs is 0.71, indicating a slight decline from the previous week [18][26] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies with scale and cost advantages in pig farming, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe [11][33] - In the poultry sector, consider companies with proprietary white feather chicken breeding sources [11][33]
电力设备行业研究周报:顶层强调加快社会绿色转型,光伏产品价格有望持续修复-2025-03-12
Shengang Securities· 2025-03-12 09:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [10] Core Views - The top-level emphasis on accelerating the green transition in society is expected to lead to a continuous recovery in photovoltaic product prices [12][6] - The government work report for 2025 indicates a target of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by approximately 3% and ongoing improvements in ecological environment quality [10][12] - The overall production of photovoltaic components increased by 35% month-on-month in March, with a notable rise in orders and a slight decrease in inventory [5][12] - The report suggests that as downstream components and battery prices rise, upstream silicon wafers and silicon materials are also likely to increase in price, leading to a recovery in profitability for industry chain enterprises [6][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The report highlights the government's commitment to green transformation and the expected price recovery in photovoltaic products [12] - It notes the increase in production and demand for photovoltaic components, which has led to rising prices [5][12] Market Review - The electric equipment industry experienced a weekly change of 0.64%, ranking 23rd among 31 primary industries [14] - The industry underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, which had a weekly increase of 1.39% [14] Investment Strategy - Continuous domestic policies are expected to help eliminate outdated production capacity and prevent disorderly expansion on the supply side, accelerating the bottoming out of the photovoltaic industry [7][13] - Technological advancements are anticipated to expand the application scale of granular silicon, reducing the cost of polysilicon and improving profitability [7][13] - Recommended companies to focus on include Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar, which are leading in integrated operations and BC battery technology [7][13] Price Changes in Key Materials - Current market prices for photovoltaic components show an increase, with N-type 182mm modules priced at 0.685-0.695 CNY/W and N-type 210mm modules at 0.705-0.718 CNY/W [10][15] - Topcon 183 battery cells are priced around 0.29-0.30 CNY/W, with similar pricing for other models [10][15] - Silicon wafer prices remain stable, with recent high transactions for 210R wafers at 1.35 CNY/piece [10][15]
农林牧渔行业研究周报:商品猪出栏均价走弱,我国对美农产品加征关税
Shengang Securities· 2025-03-12 09:27
行 业 研 究 商品猪出栏均价走弱 我国对美农产品加 征关税 ——农林牧渔行业研究周报 投资摘要: 每周一谈:商品猪出栏均价走弱 我国对美农产品加征关税 商品猪出栏均价周环比下跌,仔猪均价周环比持平 商品猪出栏均重和宰后均重周环比上涨,标肥价差周环比收窄 3 月计划出栏量月环比增加 2.74%,市场供给压力增加,能繁母猪存栏缓慢去 化。根据钢联 173 家规模养殖场样本数据,2025 年 2 月实际出栏量月环比减少 18.07%,3 月计划出栏量 1147.59 万头、月环比增加 2.74%。农业农村部口径 1 月能繁母猪存栏 4062.00 万头,较前一月减少 16.00 万头,月环比减少 0.39%。在目前商品猪出栏均价低迷情况下,预计后续能繁母猪产能有望缓慢去 根据 wind 截至 3 月 7 日数据,自繁自养头均养殖利润 33.56 元/头,利润较前一 周环比减少 9.52 元/头,外购仔猪头均养殖亏损 12.52 元/头,利润较前一周环 比减少 21.91 元/头。 生猪养殖建议关注具有养殖规模和成本优势的龙头企业牧原股份、温氏股份、 巨星农牧、新五丰、华统股份。 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 证券研究 ...
电力设备行业研究周报:顶层强调加快社会绿色转型,光伏产品价格有望持续修复
Shengang Securities· 2025-03-12 09:27
顶层强调加快社会绿色转型 光伏产品价 格有望持续修复 ——电力设备行业研究周报 投资摘要: 每周一谈:顶层强调加快社会绿色转型 光伏产品价格有望持续修复 2025 政府工作报告中提出: 单位国内生产总值能耗降低 3%左右,生态环境质量持续改善。 据 SMM 光伏视界消息,光伏组件整体 3 月排产环比上升 35%,订单交付较增 多,分布式抢装订单显现,库存小幅降低,Topcon 电池片和硅片排产亦提升明 显。在需求旺盛的影响下,部分光伏产品价格也持续上涨。 我们认为,在政策导向、行业自律、成本压力、供需格局等因素影响下,随着产 业链下游组件、电池片涨价,产业链上游硅片、硅料等也有望随之涨价,产业链 企业盈利有望迎来修复。 投资策略: | 刘宁 分析师 | | --- | | SAC 执业证书编号:S1660524090001 | 行业表现走势图 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-03 2024-06 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源: Wind, 申港证券研究所 国内不断出台相关政策,助力淘汰落后产能、防止供给端"无序扩张",光伏行业 有望加速筑底 ...
申港证券策略周报:建议相对谨慎-2025-03-11
Shengang Securities· 2025-03-11 12:31
Market Overview - The five major indices tracked last week all experienced gains, indicating a recovery in market sentiment. However, the market may still face challenges from upcoming earnings reports, suggesting a cautious approach and position control is advisable [2][18]. - Last week's performance of major indices was as follows: CSI 300 increased by 1.39%, Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.56%, Shenzhen Component Index gained 2.19%, ChiNext Index went up by 1.61%, and CSI 500 saw a rise of 2.63% [10][11]. Industry Performance - Among the 31 primary industry indices tracked last week, 26 saw increases while 5 experienced declines. The top five performing industries were non-ferrous metals, defense and military, computers, machinery, and media. Conversely, the bottom five were oil and petrochemicals, comprehensive, real estate, public utilities, and construction decoration [11][12]. Trading Data - The total trading volume last week was 6,217.36 million shares, with a total transaction value of 85,046.34 billion yuan. There were 3,933 stocks that rose and 1,382 that fell [12][13]. - As of last weekend, 54 stocks reached historical highs, while 3 stocks hit historical lows. The number of stocks reaching new highs over the past 30, 60, and 120 days were 774, 714, and 284 respectively. For new lows, the figures were 88, 38, and 30 [14][15]. Margin Trading Data - Margin trading data indicated that the weekly financing balance increased by approximately 12.1 billion yuan, while the weekly margin balance rose by about 0.7 billion yuan [14].
策略周报:建议相对谨慎
Shengang Securities· 2025-03-11 12:26
建议相对谨慎 ——申港证券策略周报 投资摘要: 投资策略: -16% -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 2024-03 2024-06 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 上证指数 沪深300 资料来源: wind ,申港证券研究所 相关报告 1、《进入"两会"时间:申港证券策略周 报》2025-03-04 2、《注意业绩的影响:申港证券策略周报》 2025-02-24 3、《或有调整:申港证券策略周报》2025- 02-18 4、《市场有所回暖:申港证券策略周报》 2025-02-11 5、《节前交易或趋于平稳:申港证券策略 上周跟踪的市场五大指数全面收涨,市场情绪有所恢复,我们认为短期市场或 仍然将面临未来财报的考验,建议保持相对谨慎的态度,控制仓位。 风险提示:市场波动风险、政策风险。 2025 年 3 月 10 日 | 徐广福 分析师 | | --- | | SAC 执业证书编号:S1660524030001 | 大盘基本资料 | 股票家数 | 5404 | | --- | --- | | 大盘平均市盈率 | 12.62 | 大盘表现走势图 港 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 ...
国内科技突破浪潮下的A股投资价值分析:A股的战略机遇与价值重估
Shengang Securities· 2025-03-11 09:14
A 股的战略机遇与价值重估 ——国内科技突破浪潮下的 A 股投资价值分析 投资摘要: 核心逻辑:科技自立自强重塑 A 股价值中枢。在"十四五"规划明确科技 强国战略、全球产业链重构加速的背景下,中国科技企业正经历从"跟随者" 向"引领者"的跃迁。半导体、人工智能、新能源、高端装备等领域的突破, 不仅标志着技术能力的质变,更是推动 A 股科技板块从"题材驱动"转向 "业绩驱动",成为新一轮价值重估的核心引擎,也是新质生产力的具体体 现。 国内科技突破的三大驱动力: 1、 政策红利密集释放。 顶层设计强化:在特有的制度优势下,集成电路大基金三期(3440 亿元)、 人工智能专项政策等持续加码。 资本市场改革:科创板"硬科技"门槛提升、并购充足绿色通道。 2、 产业链自主可控提速 光刻设备实现 0 到 1 的突破;刻蚀设备、薄膜设备正在加速替代国外产 品。华为宣布自主可控的操作系统,打破国外垄断。中国已连续 11 年成 为全球最大工业机器人市场,近三年新增装机量占全球一半以上。 3、 全球竞争格局重塑 英伟达,亚马逊和微软同日宣布接入 DeepSeek-R1 模型,据报道 DeepSeek 在研发大模型时绕过了 C ...
汽车行业研究周报:吉利发布高阶智驾系统,问界m2和M92025款预售-2025-03-11
Shengang Securities· 2025-03-11 08:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [2] Core Insights - Geely has launched the "Qianli Haohan" advanced intelligent driving system, which covers various models under its brand, aiming to enhance the driving experience across the country [1][10] - The "Qianli Haohan" system includes five versions (H1, H3, H5, H7, H9), with the H9 version featuring a fully redundant L3 level architecture for comprehensive driving scenarios [5][10] - The pre-sale prices for the 2025 models of the AITO M8 and M9 are set at 368,000 yuan and 478,000 yuan respectively, with the M9 model achieving significant sales milestones in the luxury segment [5][12] Investment Strategy and Key Focus - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies in the vehicle and parts sectors due to performance improvements, as well as core targets in the new energy and intelligent vehicle sectors [6][11] - Recommended companies include BYD, Li Auto, and Top Group, each with a 20% weight in the investment focus [14] - The automotive sector is expected to rebound as economic conditions normalize and stimulus policies take effect, with production and sales likely to continue rising [11][13] Market Review - The automotive sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.39% [7][14] - In the sub-sectors, automotive services and parts saw notable weekly gains of 2.21% and 5.00% respectively [7][14]
汽车行业研究周报:吉利发布高阶智驾系统,问界M8和M9 2025款预售
Shengang Securities· 2025-03-11 08:25
行 业 研 究 吉利发布高阶智驾系统 问界 M8 和 M9 2025 款预售 ——汽车行业研究周报 投资摘要: 每周一谈:吉利发布高阶智驾系统 问界 M8 和 M9 2025 款预售 据中国证券报消息,近期,吉利汽车集团举办吉利 AI 智能科技发布会,正式发布 了"千里浩瀚"安全高阶智能驾驶系统。 吉利控股集团首席智驾科学家陈奇在发布会上表示,"千里浩瀚"安全高阶智能 驾驶系统,覆盖吉利控股集团旗下各品牌车型,实现全国都能开的智驾体验。 | 评级 | 增持(维持) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 年 2025 03 | 月 | 10 | 日 | | 刘宁 分析师 | | --- | | SAC 执业证书编号:S1660524090001 | 行业表现走势图 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-03 2024-06 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 汽车 沪深300 资料来源: Wind ,申港证券研究所 "千里浩瀚"安全高阶智驾系统分为 H1、H3、H5、H7、H9 五个版本,覆盖从 基础辅助到全场景高阶自动 ...
食品饮料行业研究周报:消费预期有望逐步回升,关注大众品修复机会-2025-03-06
Shengang Securities· 2025-03-06 05:17
行 业 研 究 投资摘要: 每周一谈:消费预期有望逐步回升 关注大众品修复机会 消费预期有望逐步回升,白酒龙头厂家主动调整增长节奏。上周食品饮料指数 涨幅居前,在近期市场整体回升背景下,低估值的顺周期板块有望逐步受到市 场重视。政策把提振消费摆到更加突出位置,我们认为后续宏观增量政策空间 或主要在于促消费领域,食品饮料各子行业需求改善可期。根据 21 世纪经济 报道消息,房地产市场有所复苏,春节后重点一二线城市的供应量、看房量、 交易量等在快速回升,部分城市房价有所提升。同时,宏观经济指标中社零和 CPI 等有望提振,或将带动消费板块投资情绪回升。 消费预期有望逐步回升 关注大众品修复 部分酒企核心大单品前期相继宣布停货、控货,我们认为酒企控货动作或逐步 推动批价企稳回升。目前白酒行业价格及库存压力仍存,旺季短期上量后渠道 仍将处于去库存周期中,龙头厂家主动调整增长节奏,年内报表压力或逐季度 得到释放。分场景看,宴席和商务场景在 2025 年的回补有望带动各价位带全 国化代表品牌、地产酒和大众价位的出货。白酒板块建议从场景承接、区域格 局优化、渠道率先出清、分红率提升角度寻找白酒投资标的,关注徽酒苏酒等 地产 ...