建议相对谨慎 ——申港证券策略周报 投资摘要： 投资策略： -16% -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 2024-03 2024-06 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 上证指数 沪深300 资料来源： wind ，申港证券研究所 相关报告 1、《进入"两会"时间：申港证券策略周 报》2025-03-04 2、《注意业绩的影响：申港证券策略周报》 2025-02-24 3、《或有调整：申港证券策略周报》2025- 02-18 4、《市场有所回暖：申港证券策略周报》 2025-02-11 5、《节前交易或趋于平稳：申港证券策略 上周跟踪的市场五大指数全面收涨，市场情绪有所恢复，我们认为短期市场或 仍然将面临未来财报的考验，建议保持相对谨慎的态度，控制仓位。 风险提示：市场波动风险、政策风险。 2025 年 3 月 10 日 | 徐广福 分析师 | | --- | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1660524030001 | 大盘基本资料 | 股票家数 | 5404 | | --- | --- | | 大盘平均市盈率 | 12.62 | 大盘表现走势图 港 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 ...

A 股的战略机遇与价值重估 ——国内科技突破浪潮下的 A 股投资价值分析 投资摘要： 核心逻辑：科技自立自强重塑 A 股价值中枢。在"十四五"规划明确科技 强国战略、全球产业链重构加速的背景下，中国科技企业正经历从"跟随者" 向"引领者"的跃迁。半导体、人工智能、新能源、高端装备等领域的突破， 不仅标志着技术能力的质变，更是推动 A 股科技板块从"题材驱动"转向 "业绩驱动"，成为新一轮价值重估的核心引擎，也是新质生产力的具体体 现。 国内科技突破的三大驱动力： 1、 政策红利密集释放。 顶层设计强化：在特有的制度优势下，集成电路大基金三期（3440 亿元）、 人工智能专项政策等持续加码。 资本市场改革：科创板"硬科技"门槛提升、并购充足绿色通道。 2、 产业链自主可控提速 光刻设备实现 0 到 1 的突破；刻蚀设备、薄膜设备正在加速替代国外产 品。华为宣布自主可控的操作系统，打破国外垄断。中国已连续 11 年成 为全球最大工业机器人市场，近三年新增装机量占全球一半以上。 3、 全球竞争格局重塑 英伟达，亚马逊和微软同日宣布接入 DeepSeek-R1 模型，据报道 DeepSeek 在研发大模型时绕过了 C ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [2] Core Insights - Geely has launched the "Qianli Haohan" advanced intelligent driving system, which covers various models under its brand, aiming to enhance the driving experience across the country [1][10] - The "Qianli Haohan" system includes five versions (H1, H3, H5, H7, H9), with the H9 version featuring a fully redundant L3 level architecture for comprehensive driving scenarios [5][10] - The pre-sale prices for the 2025 models of the AITO M8 and M9 are set at 368,000 yuan and 478,000 yuan respectively, with the M9 model achieving significant sales milestones in the luxury segment [5][12] Investment Strategy and Key Focus - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies in the vehicle and parts sectors due to performance improvements, as well as core targets in the new energy and intelligent vehicle sectors [6][11] - Recommended companies include BYD, Li Auto, and Top Group, each with a 20% weight in the investment focus [14] - The automotive sector is expected to rebound as economic conditions normalize and stimulus policies take effect, with production and sales likely to continue rising [11][13] Market Review - The automotive sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.39% [7][14] - In the sub-sectors, automotive services and parts saw notable weekly gains of 2.21% and 5.00% respectively [7][14]

行 业 研 究 吉利发布高阶智驾系统 问界 M8 和 M9 2025 款预售 ——汽车行业研究周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈：吉利发布高阶智驾系统 问界 M8 和 M9 2025 款预售 据中国证券报消息，近期，吉利汽车集团举办吉利 AI 智能科技发布会，正式发布 了"千里浩瀚"安全高阶智能驾驶系统。 吉利控股集团首席智驾科学家陈奇在发布会上表示，"千里浩瀚"安全高阶智能 驾驶系统，覆盖吉利控股集团旗下各品牌车型，实现全国都能开的智驾体验。 | 评级 | 增持（维持） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 年 2025 03 | 月 | 10 | 日 | | 刘宁 分析师 | | --- | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1660524090001 | 行业表现走势图 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-03 2024-06 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 汽车 沪深300 资料来源： Wind ，申港证券研究所 "千里浩瀚"安全高阶智驾系统分为 H1、H3、H5、H7、H9 五个版本，覆盖从 基础辅助到全场景高阶自动 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the food and beverage industry, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector as consumer expectations are expected to gradually recover [1][18]. Core Insights - Consumer expectations are anticipated to improve, with leading liquor manufacturers adjusting their growth strategies. The food and beverage index has shown significant gains recently, and low-valuation cyclical sectors are likely to gain market attention [1][18]. - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with increased supply, viewing, and transaction volumes in key cities post-Spring Festival, which may boost consumer sentiment and spending [1][18]. - The report highlights that major liquor companies have announced inventory control measures, which may stabilize prices in the white liquor sector. However, price and inventory pressures still exist, and the industry is expected to undergo a destocking phase [2][18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The food and beverage index rose by 1.77% in the last week, ranking third among 31 sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.99%. For the month, the index increased by 4.14%, ranking 11th, and year-to-date, it has decreased by 2.98%, ranking 24th [11][17]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends identifying investment targets in the white liquor sector based on scene engagement, regional optimization, channel clearing, and dividend rate enhancement. Specific companies to watch include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [4][29]. - It also suggests focusing on beer companies like Yanjing Beer that may benefit from operational improvements and cost reductions. Additionally, companies in the seasoning and frozen food sectors, such as Haitian Flavoring and Anqi Yeast, are highlighted for their resilient performance [4][29]. - The report emphasizes the potential of snack food companies like Youyi Food and Three Squirrels, as well as dairy companies like Yili Group, to benefit from channel expansion and new product development [4][29]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the price of fresh milk has stabilized after a 0.3% increase in January, ending a 16-month decline, which may positively impact the dairy sector [3][27]. - The performance of the beer sector is under pressure, with Budweiser Asia's revenue expected to decline by 8.9% in 2024, and a 14.8% drop in net profit is anticipated [3][27].

行 业 研 究 消费预期有望逐步回升 关注大众品修复 ——食品饮料行业研究周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈：消费预期有望逐步回升 关注大众品修复机会 消费预期有望逐步回升，白酒龙头厂家主动调整增长节奏。上周食品饮料指数 涨幅居前，在近期市场整体回升背景下，低估值的顺周期板块有望逐步受到市 场重视。政策把提振消费摆到更加突出位置，我们认为后续宏观增量政策空间 或主要在于促消费领域，食品饮料各子行业需求改善可期。根据 21 世纪经济 报道消息，房地产市场有所复苏，春节后重点一二线城市的供应量、看房量、 交易量等在快速回升，部分城市房价有所提升。同时，宏观经济指标中社零和 CPI 等有望提振，或将带动消费板块投资情绪回升。 部分酒企核心大单品前期相继宣布停货、控货，我们认为酒企控货动作或逐步 推动批价企稳回升。目前白酒行业价格及库存压力仍存，旺季短期上量后渠道 仍将处于去库存周期中，龙头厂家主动调整增长节奏，年内报表压力或逐季度 得到释放。分场景看，宴席和商务场景在 2025 年的回补有望带动各价位带全 国化代表品牌、地产酒和大众价位的出货。白酒板块建议从场景承接、区域格 局优化、渠道率先出清、分红率提升角度寻找白酒投资 ...

特斯拉智驾升级 小米 SU7 Ultra 发布 ——汽车行业研究周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈：特斯拉智驾升级 小米 SU7 Ultra 发布 据第一财经消息，2 月 25 日，特斯拉官方推送软件更新消息，称 2024.45.32.12 已开始分批次推送，本次软件更新主要升级内容包括城市道路 Autopilot 自动辅助 驾驶（优化现有 NOA 自动辅助导航驾驶功能）。 特斯拉方面表示，此项软件更新支持车辆在通行受控道路（道路使用者通过匝道 入口和匝道出口进出的主干道）和城市道路上使用 Autopilot 自动辅助驾驶，车辆 会根据导航路线引导车辆驶出匝道和交叉口，在路口识别交通信号灯进行直行， 左转，右转，掉头等动作。并根据速度和路线自动进行变道动作。在不设置导航 路线时，会根据道路实际情况选择最优道路行驶。 今年以来，中国汽车行业的"智驾大赛"竞争态势升级，各大车企纷纷加大在高 阶智能驾驶领域的投入和普及，以比亚迪喊出"全民智驾"口号以及宣布全系车 型将搭载"天神之眼"高阶智驾系统为标志性事件，此后长安汽车、岚图汽车、 零跑汽车等车企纷纷跟上。 2 月 27 日，小米 SU7 Ultra 正式发布，定价 52 ...

英伟达发布季报 存储供需有望好转 ——电子行业研究周报 投资摘要： TrendForce 集邦咨询调查显示，2024Q4 因 PC、智能手机等消费性电子产品 厂商持续去化库存，供应链大幅调整采购订单，造成 NAND Flash 价格反转向 下，平均销售价格季减 4%。2025Q1 尽管供应商已开始积极减产，仍难以避 免传统淡季效应，包括 Server 等各项终端产品备货速度已放缓，预估在订单 量、合约价皆大幅衰退的情况下，2025Q1 NAND Flash 整体产业营收可能季 减高达 20%。 根据芯智讯消息，截至 2 月 28 日，通用 NAND Flash 产品（128Gb 16Gx8 MLC）的平均固定交易价格上涨至 2.29 美元，环比上涨 5.29%。得益于 NAND Flash 大厂的减产，以及中国大陆的消费补贴政策刺激了智能手机的销售，导 致 NAND Flash 库存的降低，价格已出现回暖迹象。 TrendForce 集邦咨询认为，NAND Flash 市场供需结构将有望在下半年显著 改善，包含原厂减产、智能手机库存去化、AI 及 DeepSeek 效应等因素将推 升 NAND Flash 需 ...

Market Overview - The electronic industry index of Shenwan fell by 4.87% last week (2.24-2.28), ranking 28th among 31 industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.64% [1][13] - In February (2.1-2.28), the electronic industry index rose by 8.31%, ranking 4th among 31 industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.39% [1][13] - Year-to-date (1.1-2.28), the electronic industry index increased by 8.02%, ranking 4th among 31 industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.16% [1][13] Nvidia Quarterly Report - Nvidia reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of $39.3 billion, a 78% year-over-year increase, with data center revenue at $35.6 billion, up 93% year-over-year [2][33] - The company delivered $11 billion worth of Blackwell chips, with net profit reaching $22.09 billion, a growth of 80% year-over-year [2][33] - For Q1 FY2026, Nvidia expects revenue in the range of $43 billion, indicating strong demand for AI chips, although gross margin is projected to drop to 71% due to increased Blackwell chip production [2][33] Storage Market Outlook - The storage supply-demand situation is gradually improving, with NAND Flash prices expected to rebound in the second half of the year, while DRAM prices may improve quarter by quarter [2][34] - In Q4 2024, the global NAND Flash market size is expected to decrease by 8.5% to $17.41 billion, while the DRAM market size is projected to grow by 13.5% to $29.345 billion [2][34] - The overall global storage market size is anticipated to grow by 4.2% to $46.755 billion in Q4 2024 [2][34] NAND Flash Price Trends - TrendForce indicates that NAND Flash prices may decline by 5% in Q2 2025 but could rebound by 10-15% in Q3 2025 and continue to grow by 8-13% in Q4 2025 [4][37] - As of February 28, the average trading price for general NAND Flash products rose to $2.29, a 5.29% increase month-over-month, attributed to production cuts by major manufacturers and consumer subsidies in China [3][36] DRAM Market Insights - The average trading price for general DRAM products remained stable at $1.35 as of February 28, with expectations of a slight decline of 3-5% in consumer-grade DRAM prices in Q1 2025 [5][38] - High-density DRAM demand is expected to surge due to AI servers, HPC, and autonomous vehicles, with price increases projected for HBM DRAM in Q2 and consumer electronics in Q3 [5][38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on storage module companies such as Baiwei Storage, Lanke Technology, and Demingli, as well as chip design firms like Zhaoyi Innovation and Beijing Junzheng, due to anticipated improvements in storage prices and demand [6][39]

进入"两会"时间 ——申港证券策略周报 投资摘要： 投资策略： 上周跟踪的市场五大指数全面收跌，随着进入 3 月份市场也来到了"两会"时 间，我们建议短期多关注"两会"相关主题，做好投资研究，减少操作频率。 风险提示：市场波动风险、政策风险。 1、《或有调整：申港证券策略周报》2025- 02-18 2、《市场有所回暖：申港证券策略周报》 2025-02-11 3、《节前交易或趋于平稳：申港证券策略 周报》2025-01-22 4、《关注业绩支撑：申港证券策略周报》 2025-01-20 2025 年 3 月 3 日 | 徐广福 分析师 | | --- | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1660524030001 | 大盘基本资料 | 股票家数 | 5404 | | --- | --- | | 大盘平均市盈率 | 12.55 | 大盘表现走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-02 2024-05 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 上证指数 沪深300 资料来源： wind ，申港证券研究所 相关报告 策 略 研 究 5、《弱势格局或将延续：申港证券策略周 报》2025 ...