Wanlian Securities

Search documents
4月经济数据点评:经济分化延续,关注未来需求端变化
Wanlian Securities· 2024-05-23 13:30
Economic Performance - In April 2024, the industrial added value year-on-year growth rate increased by 2.2 percentage points to 6.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.97%[19] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth rate for January-April 2024 was 4.2%, down from 4.5%[19] - Manufacturing investment growth rate was 9.7%, while real estate investment fell to -9.8%[19] Industrial Sector Insights - High-tech industries led the growth, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3% in April, outperforming the overall manufacturing growth[20] - Industrial product exports continued to rise, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.3% in April, up from 1.4% in March[11] - Downstream high-end manufacturing sectors, such as automotive manufacturing, saw significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 16.3%[21] Real Estate Market Trends - Real estate investment continued to decline, with new construction and sales showing negative growth, although the rate of decline is narrowing[36] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales area increased to -20.2%[31] - Policies to relax purchase restrictions and lower mortgage costs were implemented to stabilize the real estate market[38] Consumer Behavior - Social retail sales growth slowed to 2.3% in April, down from 3.1% in March, with high base effects impacting performance[44] - Consumer confidence is gradually recovering, but daily consumption remains subdued, particularly in dining and retail sectors[44] - Online retail sales growth has decreased, but the proportion of online goods and services in total retail sales is increasing[59] Employment and Labor Market - The urban unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 5.0% in April, indicating seasonal recovery[54] - The employment outlook among businesses improved, with the hiring expectation index rising to 57.8%[54]
商贸零售行业跟踪报告:4月印度培育钻石毛坯进口额同比跌幅缩小,进口端渗透率提升
Wanlian Securities· 2024-05-21 01:02
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the broader market within the next six months [23]. Core Insights - In April, the import value of lab-grown diamonds in India decreased by 1.79% year-on-year, with a total import value of $0.59 million, showing a reduced decline. Conversely, the export value of lab-grown diamonds turned negative, decreasing by 18.20% year-on-year to $0.84 million [1][9]. - The penetration rate for lab-grown diamonds in imports increased to 4.70%, up by 1.23 percentage points year-on-year, while the export penetration rate slightly decreased to 6.76%, down by 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [1][11]. - For natural diamonds, the import value in April was $11.91 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 19.27%, which is an expanded decline compared to the previous month. The export value was $11.55 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 16.76%, showing a reduced decline compared to the previous month [2][14]. - The international polished diamond price index fell slightly to 107.03 points as of April 30, down 0.51 percentage points from March, indicating a low price range due to insufficient market demand recovery [2][16]. - Short-term outlook suggests a decline in demand for lab-grown diamonds, while long-term prospects remain positive due to macroeconomic recovery and changing consumer preferences, which may enhance the penetration rate of lab-grown diamonds [2][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Lab-Grown Diamond Data Tracking - The import value of lab-grown diamonds in April was $0.59 million, with a year-on-year decline of 1.79%, while the export value was $0.84 million, with a year-on-year decline of 18.20 [1][9]. - The penetration rates for lab-grown diamonds showed an increase in imports and a slight decrease in exports [1][11]. 2. Natural Diamond Data Tracking - The import value of natural diamonds in April was $11.91 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 19.27%, while the export value was $11.55 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 16.76% [2][14]. - The international polished diamond price index decreased to 107.03 points, reflecting a slight decline in prices [2][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of India's diamond import and export data for assessing downstream market conditions. It suggests that while short-term demand for lab-grown diamonds may decline, long-term demand is expected to recover, particularly for lab-grown diamonds due to their cost advantages [2][20].
通信行业周观点:2024世界电信和信息社会日大会召开
Wanlian Securities· 2024-05-21 01:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry, indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The telecommunications industry index rose by 0.54% from May 13 to May 17, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.22 percentage points [1][11]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in segments such as 5G construction and applications, computing power, data centers, and satellite communications [1][26]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the RAN market revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 15% to 30% in Q1 2024, marking the largest drop in the history of the sector [7][9]. - Global cloud infrastructure service spending increased by 21% year-on-year in Q1 2024, reaching $79.8 billion, with major cloud providers showing substantial growth [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - 5G roaming services have been launched by major telecom operators in China, marking a new phase in 5G development [5]. - Beijing has deployed over 1,500 5G-A base stations, significantly enhancing network speeds [6]. - China Mobile's AI server procurement project has a total winning bid amount of approximately 19.104 billion yuan [6]. - The RAN market is experiencing significant revenue declines, with a forecasted annual revenue drop of 5% to 8% [7][9]. - Cloud service spending is accelerating, with Microsoft showing a growth rate nearly double that of AWS [10]. Market Performance - The telecommunications industry index has underperformed the broader market since the beginning of 2024, with a cumulative increase of 4.45% compared to a 7.19% increase in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [11][14]. - The average daily trading volume in the telecommunications sector decreased by 7.70% compared to the previous week [16]. - Among 134 stocks in the telecommunications sector, 81 stocks increased in value, indicating a positive trend [18]. Valuation - The current PE (TTM) ratio for the telecommunications industry is 18.81, significantly below the historical average of 34.98 [14][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the satellite communication industry chain, AI computing power industry chain, digital applications, and 5G construction for medium to long-term investment opportunities [26].
计算机行业周观点:继续关注AI产业大模型及算力的迭代更新
Wanlian Securities· 2024-05-21 01:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry, indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [53]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on investment opportunities in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, particularly in product technology updates, AIGC applications, and digital intelligence ecosystem applications [1][31]. - The computer industry has seen a decline in attention, with trading volume dropping by 18.82% compared to the previous week, and the industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (PE) at 37.43, below the historical average of 48.47 [1][37]. Industry Dynamics - **5G Developments**: Huawei launched the world's first F5G-A optical application innovation center in Wuhan during the 2024 China Optics Valley Photonic Information Industry Innovation Development Conference [25]. - **AI Standards**: The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has approved the establishment of the first international standard for AI-based code generation technology, which aims to enhance the capabilities and standardized application of code large models [26]. - **5G-A Testing**: China Unicom and Huawei successfully completed the first outdoor large-scale network verification of 5G-A, achieving a downlink speed of 4.6 Gbps [27]. - **Autonomous Driving**: Baidu introduced the world's first L4-level autonomous driving large model, Apollo ADFM, claiming it is ten times safer than human drivers [28]. - **AI Chip Advancements**: Google announced its sixth-generation AI chip, Trillium, which boasts a performance increase of 4.7 times and a doubling of memory bandwidth [30]. Market Performance - The report notes that the computer industry underperformed the broader market, with a 0.01% decline compared to a 0.32% increase in the CSI 300 index, ranking 17th among the primary industries [31][33]. - Year-to-date, the computer industry has decreased by 16.33%, significantly lagging behind the CSI 300 index, which has increased by 7.19% [33]. Sub-industry Performance - The report highlights that the computer equipment and IT services sectors saw slight increases of 0.36% and 0.22%, respectively, while software development declined by 0.45% [35]. - Cumulatively, the computer equipment sector has decreased by 6.20%, IT services by 19.38%, and software development by 20.10% in 2024 [35]. Valuation Insights - The computer industry is currently valued below its historical average, with a PE ratio of 37.43, indicating a potential undervaluation compared to the historical mean of 48.47 [37]. Trading Activity - The report indicates a decrease in trading activity, with a total trading volume of 250.8 billion yuan over the past week, averaging 50.2 billion yuan per day [37]. - Among 355 stocks in the computer sector, 181 stocks rose while 166 fell, indicating a mixed performance [39]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the dual themes of digitalization and intelligence, particularly in the context of the emerging "信创" (Xinchuang) industry ecosystem [50].
食品饮料行业周观点:白酒小幅下跌,食饮企业逐步推进2024目标计划
Wanlian Securities· 2024-05-21 01:00
[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|食品饮料 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 白酒小幅下跌,食饮企业逐步推进 2024 目 强于大市 研 (维持) 究 标计划 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——食品饮料行业周观点(05.13-05.19) 2024年05月20日 [行Ta业ble核_S心um观m点ar:y] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 上周食品饮料板块下跌0.39%,于申万31个子行业中位列第18。上周 食品饮料 沪深300 (2024年5月13日-2024年5月19日),沪深300指数上涨0.32%, 5% 申万食品饮料指数下跌 0.39%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.71 个百分点,在 0% 行 申万31个一级子行业中排名第18。年初至今沪深300指数上涨7.19%, -5% 业 申万食品饮料指数上涨 1.22%,跑输沪深 300 指数 5.97 个百分点,在 -10% -15% 周 申万31个一级子行业中排名第16。上周食品饮料子板块多数下跌,其 -20% 观 中零 ...
社会服务行业周观点:“中国旅游日”出台利好措施,旅游市场注入新活力
Wanlian Securities· 2024-05-20 12:00
[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|社会服务 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 “中国旅游日”出台利好措施,旅游市场注 强于大市 研 (维持) 究 入新活力 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——社会服务行业周观点(05.13-05.19) 2024年05月20日 [行Ta业ble核_S心um观m点ar:y] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 上周(5月13日-5月19日)沪深300指数上涨0.32%、申万社会服务 指数上涨0.22%,社会服务指数跑输沪深300指数0.1个百分点,在申 社会服务 沪深300 10% 万 31 个一级行业指数涨跌幅排第 15。年初至今沪深 300 指数上涨 5% 0% 7.19%、申万社会服务指数下跌9.27%,申万社会指数跑输沪深 300指 -5% 行 -10% 数16.46个百分点,在申万31个一级子行业中涨跌幅排名第27。上周 -15% 业 -20% -25% 社会服务子板块涨跌不一,酒店餐饮0.31%、旅游及景区0.13%、教育 周 -30% ...
纺织服饰行业2023&2024Q1业绩综述报告:2023年行业出口承压,关注珠宝板块量价齐升
Wanlian Securities· 2024-05-20 11:01
[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|纺织服饰 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 2023 年行业出口承压,关注珠宝板块量价 强于大市 研 (维持) 究 齐升 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——纺织服饰行业 2023&2024Q1 业绩综述报告 2024年05月20日 [Table_Summary] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 行业核心观点: 2023 年纺织服饰行业行情表现较好,跑赢沪深 300指数,需求端恢复 纺织服饰 沪深300 5% 偏弱,但盈利水平同比好转。从二级子行业来看,纺织制造行业 2023 0% 行 年表现一般,主因2023年市场需求收缩、订单外流,地缘政治冲突不 -5% 业 断和海外通胀影响终端消费需求,叠加供应链调整加速等因素,纺织制 -10% -15% 跟 造行业出口订单情况不佳。服装家纺行业2024年一季度归母净利润同 -20% 踪 比负增长,主因受全球高通胀高利率、外需疲弱、贸易环境复杂等因素 -25% 报 的影响,行业出口压力增加。饰品行业收入表 ...
农林牧渔行业2024Q1业绩综述报告:盈利能力回升,养殖业亏损收窄
Wanlian Securities· 2024-05-20 09:00
[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|农林牧渔 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 强于大市 研 盈利能力回升,养殖业亏损收窄 (维持) 究 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——农林牧渔行业 2024Q1 业绩综述报告 2024年05月20日 [投Ta资ble要_S点um:m ary] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 行业整体:2024 年一季度农林牧渔板块营业收入合计 2,784.80 亿元, 农林牧渔 沪深300 同比下降4.28%,在申万一级行业中排名第25;归母净利润合计-16.55 5% 亿元,同比减亏59.98%,在申万一级行业中排名第1。板块ROE及毛 0% 行 -5% 利率、净利率有所回升,其中板块ROE为-0.32%,同比+0.53pct,毛利 业 -10% 率、净利率分别为6.70%、-0.82%,同比分别+1.04pct、+0.85pct。 -15% 跟 -20% 踪 ⚫ 种植业板块:2024年一季度板块实现营收238.73亿元,同比+32.69%, -25% ...
房地产行业快评报告:政策端持续加码,关注地产链行情
Wanlian Securities· 2024-05-20 05:32
[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|房地产 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 强于大市 研 政策端持续加码,关注地产链行情 (维持) 究 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——房地产行业快评报告 2024年05月20日 [行Ta业ble核_S心um观m点ar:y] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 随着房地产行业持续调整,政策力度显著加强,此次需求端 政策三箭齐发,力度略超预期;供给端,对于保交楼以及房 房地产 沪深300 20% 企融资支持工作持续稳定推进;库存去化方面,明确了政府 10% 行 收储具体安排,政策层面从多维度给予房地产行业支持,助 0% 业 力行业筑底企稳,后续需要持续关注行业成交量以及房价情 -10% 快 况。在政策推动下建议关注地产产业链β行情、受益于保交 -20% 评 楼政策进一步加强下竣工端板块等。 -30% 报 -40% 告 事件:(1)2024年5月17日,国新办举行国务院政策例行吹 数据来源:聚源,万联证券研究所 风会介绍切实做好保交房工作配套政策有关 ...
策略跟踪报告:上市公司分红意愿有所提高
Wanlian Securities· 2024-05-20 03:02
[Table_RightTitle] 策略研究|策略跟踪报告 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...