Group 1 - The report highlights significant achievements in China's financial industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on reforms, support for the real economy, technological development, and risk management [3][4]. - A total of 170 trillion yuan was provided to the real economy through various financial instruments over the past five years, with the balance of inclusive loans to small and micro enterprises reaching 36 trillion yuan, 2.3 times that of the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the strong support for the technology sector, with annual growth rates exceeding 20% for loans to technology SMEs, inclusive small and micro loans, and green loans [4]. Group 2 - Financial risk management has been effectively addressed, with measures taken to resolve risks in key areas, including local government financing platforms and small financial institutions [4]. - The report notes that the A-share market's resilience and risk resistance have improved, with the annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index decreasing by 2.8 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [4]. - The monetary policy remains supportive, with an emphasis on maintaining liquidity and reducing financing costs to support economic development in the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [4].

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 09 月 23 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 3218 周一 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.22%，深成指收 涨 0.67%，创业板指收涨 0.55%。沪深两市成交额 21212.46 亿元。申 万行业方面，电子、计算机、有色金属领涨，社会服务、美容护理、 商贸零售领跌；概念板块方面，同花顺果指数、AI 手机、智能音箱概 念涨幅居前，中韩自贸区、高压氧舱、免税店概念跌幅居前。港股方 面，恒生指数收跌 0.76%，恒生科技指数收跌 0.58%；海外方面，美 国三大指数集体收涨，道指收涨 0.14%，标普 500 收涨 0.44%，纳指 收涨 0.7%。 【重要新闻】 【我国资本市场实现量的稳步增长和质的有效提升】9 月 22 日国新 办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。"十四五" 时期，我国资本市场实现了量的稳步增长和质的有效提升，为"十五 五"高质量发展打下坚实基础。中国证监会主席吴清在会上表示，"十 四五"时期，面 ...

证券研究报告|计算机 [Table_Title] SW 计算机行业 2025 上半年业绩向好，盈利 能力及经营质量均有所提升 [Table_ReportType] ——计算机行业跟踪报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： Table_Summary] SW 计算机行业 2025 上半年业绩显著修复，营收、归母净利润同比增 长，盈利能力有所提升，业绩表现分化。2025 上半年，SW 计算机行业 实现营业收入 6,114.08 亿元，同比增长了 11.77%，增速同比提升了 4.56pct，增长态势向好；若按中位数法计算同比增速为 2.99%，低于 整体法的同比增速，反映出计算机行业标的营收表现分化较为明显， 部分中大规模的头部优质企业营收表现较优，带动了行业整体营收稳 健增长，而超半数中小规模企业营收表现则劣于行业整体水平；行业 实现归母净利润 128.59 亿元，同比大幅增长了 40.99%，增速由负转 正，且明显超过同期营收同比增速，反映出行业盈利能力有所提升； 若按中位数法计算同比增速为 9.41%，同样低于整体法下的同比增速， 反映出计算机行业的归母净利润也呈现分化特征，部分中大规模 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a collective decline last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.3%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.16%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 23,234.81 billion yuan [1][7] - In terms of industry performance, coal, non-ferrous metals, and building materials led the gains, while the automotive, pharmaceutical, and computer sectors faced declines. Concept sectors such as photolithography machines, civil explosives, and lithium extraction from salt lakes saw significant increases, while sectors like reducers, PEEK materials, and humanoid robots experienced notable declines [1][7] Industry Analysis Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel industry reported a total revenue of 2,359.10 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.34%, ranking 25th among Shenwan's primary industries. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 146.79 billion yuan, down 8.63%, ranking 24th [9] - The textile manufacturing sector achieved a revenue of 595.69 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.28% year-on-year, while the net profit increased by 0.38% to 49.82 billion yuan. The sector's return on equity (ROE) was 4.20%, with a gross margin of 19.36% and a net margin of 8.55% [9][10] - The apparel and home textile sector generated 767.63 billion yuan in revenue, down 4.81%, with a net profit of 64.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.81%. The sector's gross margin was 46.09%, while the net margin was 8.46% [10] - The accessories sector reported a revenue of 995.78 billion yuan, down 8.51%, with a net profit of 32.68 billion yuan, down 8.10%. The sector's gross margin was 10.49%, and the net margin was 3.66% [10] Investment Recommendations - For the textile manufacturing sector, it is suggested to focus on upstream textile manufacturing companies with cost and scale advantages as tariff agreements improve [12] - In the apparel and home textile sector, companies with strong brand power are expected to see performance recovery due to improving downstream demand [12] - In the accessories sector, despite short-term demand suppression due to high gold prices, long-term growth is anticipated as craftsmanship improves, suggesting a focus on leading jewelry companies with strong brand presence and wide distribution channels [12]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.64%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 31,347.7 billion yuan [2][8] - In the industry sectors, electronics, communications, and social services led the gains, while non-ferrous metals, comprehensive sectors, and non-bank financials lagged behind. Concept sectors such as FSG concept, co-packaged optics (CPO), and copper cable high-speed connections saw gains, while lead, zinc, and gold concepts declined [2][8] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.35%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 0.99%. In overseas markets, the three major U.S. indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.27%, S&P 500 up 0.48%, and Nasdaq up 0.94% [2][8] Market Performance - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 396.68 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, which is an improvement of 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year, although it decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to July [10] - The retail sales growth of goods continued to decline, while the growth of catering revenue saw a slight rebound compared to the previous month. In August, the retail sales of goods increased by 3.6% year-on-year, while catering revenue increased by 2.1% [10][11] - Online retail sales from January to August 2025 totaled 998.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, accounting for 30.82% of the total retail sales of consumer goods [13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the food and beverage sector, particularly the liquor industry, which is expected to be in a bottoming phase with low valuations and high dividends providing strong support for stock prices [14] - In the social services sector, the report highlights the potential for growth in tourism, duty-free, hotels, catering, and education sectors due to favorable policies [14] - For the retail sector, the report recommends attention to gold and jewelry companies, which are expected to benefit from the rising attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, and cosmetics companies that have shown strong growth despite industry demand weakness [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [4][7]. Core Insights - The net profit growth of 42 listed banks turned positive in Q2, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% for the quarter and 0.8% for the first half of 2025, benefiting from a comprehensive improvement in revenue [1]. - The net interest margin (NIM) decline has narrowed, with a NIM of 1.53% for the first half of 2025, down 8 basis points from the beginning of the year, showing an improvement compared to the 14 basis points decline in the same period last year [1]. - The overall asset growth rate of the industry has increased, with total assets of 42 listed banks growing by 9.6% year-on-year as of the end of the first half of 2025, reflecting a 2.1 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [2]. - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.23% as of the end of the first half of 2025, remaining largely unchanged from the previous quarter [2]. - The report suggests that the improvement in bank performance in Q2 2025 reflects strong operational resilience, with expectations for stability in performance increasing [3]. Summary by Sections Profitability - The net profit of listed banks showed a year-on-year growth of 3.0% in Q2 2025, with a 0.8% increase in the first half of 2025, reversing the negative trend observed in Q1 2025 [1]. - Revenue for listed banks increased by 1.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a notable improvement in non-interest income [1]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio for the industry was 1.23% as of the end of the first half of 2025, with a slight decrease in the attention rate and an increase in the overdue rate [2]. - The provision coverage ratio stood at 287.29%, reflecting a minor decrease from the previous quarter [2]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the current dividend yield of the banking sector remains attractive, and regulatory encouragement for increased market participation by insurance funds is expected to support the sector's valuation [3]. - Future incremental capital is anticipated to sustain the sector's market performance [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that service consumption in China is set to rebound, with service consumption expenditure expected to reach 46% of total consumption in 2024, returning to pre-pandemic levels and approaching the critical 50% mark [2][4]. - The joint policy measures introduced by nine government departments aim to enhance service consumption, showcasing a strong commitment from the government to boost service consumption quality and quantity [2][3]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures - The new policy measures include 19 specific actions across various sectors such as culture, tourism, sports, education, and health, focusing on enhancing service consumption through platform construction, supply-side improvements, demand-side stimulation, and financial support [2][3]. - Key highlights include the launch of "Service Consumption Seasons" to promote activities in high-demand service areas, and measures to expand supply by relaxing restrictions and attracting external capital [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors that will benefit from the policy measures, including: - **Cultural Tourism**: Emphasizing inbound tourism and youth travel, with recommendations to monitor leading travel agencies and scenic spots [4][9]. - **Trendy Toys**: Noting the rapid growth of the trendy toy market, with a focus on companies with strong IP resources and broad channel layouts [9]. - **Sports**: Highlighting the significant potential in event-driven consumption, recommending attention to companies involved in event operations and related services [9]. - **Education**: Encouraging investment in non-academic training and vocational education sectors, particularly those positioned to benefit from supportive policies [9].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw collective gains on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.95%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 23,764.76 billion yuan. The leading sectors included power equipment, automobiles, and home appliances, while agriculture, retail, and social services lagged behind [2][8] - The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%. This marks the first rate cut of 2025 and follows three cuts in 2024. The Fed noted a slowdown in economic activity and rising inflation, with high uncertainty in the economic outlook [3][9] - The Hong Kong government introduced measures to enhance the stock market, including support for tech companies to raise funds in Hong Kong and optimizing listing regulations. These initiatives aim to boost the market's vitality and competitiveness [4][10] Industry Insights Banking Sector - In August, the social financing stock growth rate was 8.8%, a decrease of 0.2% from July. New social financing totaled 2.57 trillion yuan, down by 0.47 trillion yuan year-on-year. The decline was attributed to a slowdown in government bond issuance and credit growth [11][12] - The M1 growth rate was 6%, with M2 growing by 8.8%. The anticipated smooth deployment of fiscal funds may continue to support economic growth, although the increase in monetary growth is expected to narrow [12][14] - The banking sector is expected to see gradual recovery in revenue and profit growth, supported by attractive dividend yields and regulatory encouragement for insurance funds to increase market participation [14] Media Sector - The media industry reported a revenue increase of 3.86% in H1 2025, totaling 254.86 billion yuan, with net profit rising by 28.85% to 21.78 billion yuan. The gross margin remained stable at 32.90% [15][16] - The gaming sector showed significant growth, with revenue reaching 54.45 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 22.17% increase, and net profit soaring by 74.95% to 8.05 billion yuan [15][16] - The film and television sector experienced a revenue increase of 15.24% in H1 2025, driven by successful releases, although Q2 saw a decline in revenue and an increase in losses [16][19] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage industry saw a revenue increase of 2.41% in H1 2025, totaling 5,806.35 billion yuan, but net profit decreased by 0.56% to 1,275.08 billion yuan. The sector's growth rates ranked 14th and 20th among 31 sub-industries [22][23] - The beverage segment, particularly soft drinks and condiments, showed strong revenue growth, while the beer segment maintained positive growth in both revenue and profit [23][24] - The liquor industry faced challenges, with a slight decline in revenue and profit, particularly in the mid-range segment, while high-end brands remained resilient [25][26] Electronics Sector - The SW electronics industry reported a revenue increase of 19.10% in H1 2025, totaling 1,846.095 billion yuan, with net profit rising by 29.29% to 84.04 billion yuan [30][31] - The semiconductor sector performed well, driven by AI demand and domestic substitution, while consumer electronics benefited from government subsidies [31][32] - The optical and electronic sectors saw significant profit growth, particularly in the panel segment, which experienced a 193.31% increase in net profit [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a significant slowdown in performance, with a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders. The sector's revenue for H1 2025 reached 580.635 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 127.508 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.56% [2][16] - The report highlights that the growth rates of revenue and net profit have declined compared to H1 2024, with revenue growth down by 1.30 percentage points and net profit growth down by 14.52 percentage points. The sector's gross margin and net margin have also decreased year-on-year [2][16] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The food and beverage sector's revenue growth has slowed significantly, ranking 14th among 31 sub-industries, while net profit growth ranked 20th [2][16] - The sector's gross margin and net margin have decreased year-on-year, although the expense ratio remains relatively stable [3][21] Sub-sector Performance - Snack foods, soft drinks, and fermented seasonings showed the highest revenue growth rates, with increases of 36.36%, 9.08%, and 4.66% respectively. In terms of net profit growth, beer, fermented seasonings, and soft drinks led with increases of 12.06%, 8.04%, and 4.89% respectively [2][25] - The beer sector achieved positive growth in both revenue and net profit, with revenue increasing by 2.75% and net profit by 12.06% in H1 2025. Major beer companies like Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer performed well, with net profit growth exceeding 22% [8][41] Wine Sector - The wine sector experienced a slight decline in revenue and net profit, with H1 2025 revenue at 241.508 billion yuan, down 0.86% year-on-year, and net profit at 94.561 billion yuan, down 1.18% year-on-year. This marks the first negative growth since H1 2014 [4][28] - High-end wines showed resilience, with revenue growth of 6.17% and net profit growth of 5.49%. The market share of leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye remained strong [34][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests structural investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the beverage, snack, and health food industries. It emphasizes the potential in energy drinks and innovative snack brands [10] - The beer, seasoning, and dairy sectors are identified as areas for marginal improvement, while the wine sector is viewed as being in a bottoming phase, with limited downside risk [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][25]. Core Insights - In August, the total social financing (社融) stock grew by 8.8%, a decrease of 0.2% compared to July. The new social financing added was 2.57 trillion yuan, which is 0.47 trillion yuan less year-on-year. This decline is attributed to a slowdown in government bond issuance and a year-on-year decrease in credit [3][11]. - The net financing scale of new credit and government bonds in August was 0.63 trillion yuan and 1.37 trillion yuan, respectively, both showing a year-on-year decrease [3][11]. - The total social financing stock reached 433.66 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.8% [3][11]. - For the first eight months of 2025, the total new social financing amounted to 26.6 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 4.66 trillion yuan year-on-year [3][11]. - The net financing amount of government bonds reached 10.3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.63 trillion yuan, indicating that government bonds are a crucial support for the year-on-year increase in social financing [3][11]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit - In August, the new credit increased by 0.59 trillion yuan, which is 0.31 trillion yuan less year-on-year. The overall credit demand remains weak [16][13]. - The M1 money supply grew by 6% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.4%, primarily due to a low base from the previous year [4][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the weak credit demand and low loan rates will continue, with a focus on the progress of fiscal deposit deployment. The bank sector's revenue and profit growth are expected to gradually recover due to the positive contribution of deposit repricing to interest margins [22][4]. - The current dividend yield of the banking sector remains attractive, and regulatory encouragement for insurance funds to increase market participation is expected to support the sector's valuation floor [22][4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that incremental funds will help sustain the sector's market performance in the future [22].