证券研究报告|社会服务 岛民免税政策落地，海南自贸港再迎利好 [Table_ReportType] ——社会服务行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] [事件Table_Summary] ： 2 月 5 日，财政部、海关总署、税务总局联合印发《关于海南自由 贸易港岛内居民消费的进境商品"零关税"政策的通知》，自公布 之日起实施。《通知》规定，对海南自由贸易港岛内居民在指定经 营场所购买的进境商品，在免税额度和商品清单范围内免征进口关 税、进口环节以及国内环节增值税和消费税。 投资要点： ⚫ 岛民免税政策正式出台，政策要点包括： 岛民享惠范围大幅提升，覆盖日常消费。与离岛免税政策中对海南 岛内居民的特殊政策相比，此次岛民免税政策惠及范围显著扩大。 政策商品种类覆盖岛民日常刚需消费品，无需具备离岛记录即可随 时购买，预计将与跨境电商及本地零售商超形成渠道竞争。在 202 项正面清单中，超半数商品为食品饮料类，包括生鲜、水果、婴幼 儿奶粉及食品、调味品、宠物食品等，其余则为日化用品、母婴用 品、家居用品、文体用品等类别。 3036 ⚫ 岛民免税与离岛免税政策形成有效互补，有望持续演进。离岛免税 政策主要面 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.64% to close at 4,075.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 1.44%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.55% [2][7] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.19 trillion RMB, with over 3,700 stocks declining [7] - In terms of industry performance, the beauty and personal care sector, along with the banking industry, led the gains, while the non-ferrous metals and electric equipment sectors faced declines [7] - Concept sectors such as horse racing and duty-free shops saw gains, whereas BC batteries and lead metal concepts experienced losses [7] - The Hong Kong market showed a slight increase, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.14% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.74% [7] - Internationally, US stock markets saw declines across all three major indices, with the Dow Jones down by 1.20%, the S&P 500 down by 1.23%, and the Nasdaq down by 1.59% [7] - European stock markets also experienced collective declines, while the Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed results [7] Important News - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration jointly announced a "zero tariff" policy for imported goods purchased by residents in Hainan Free Trade Port, allowing for a tax exemption on imports within a limit of 10,000 RMB per person per year, with no restrictions on purchase frequency [3][8] - The 2026 National Service Consumption and Service Trade Work Conference emphasized the shift in consumption structure from goods to services, aiming to cultivate new growth points in service consumption, support service exports, and innovate in digital trade [3][8]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a fluctuation with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% to close at 4102.2 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.4%. The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.50 trillion RMB, with over 3200 stocks rising [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, the coal and building materials sectors led the gains, while the media and telecommunications sectors lagged behind. Concept stocks related to combustible ice and coal saw significant increases, whereas stocks like Kuaishou, Xiaohongshu, and Sora experienced declines [2][7] - The Hong Kong market showed a slight increase with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.05%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.84%. In the overseas markets, the US stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.53%, the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.51%, and the Nasdaq dropping by 1.51% [2][7] Important News - The People's Bank of China held a meeting on the credit market for 2026, emphasizing the need to enhance quality financial services for major strategies, key areas, and weak links. The focus is on supporting consumption, expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [3][7]

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 04 日 星期三 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 [Table_MeetContact] 主持人: 李中港 Email: lizg@wlzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 周二，A 股探底回升，上证指数收涨 1.29%报 4067.74 点，深证成指 涨 2.19%，创业板指涨 1.86%。两市 A 股成交额 2.57 万亿元人民币， 超 4800 股上涨。申万行业方面，综合、国防军工、机械设备行业领 涨，仅银行行业下跌；概念板块方面，全面普涨，BC 电池、钙钛矿电 池概念领涨。港股方面，恒生指数涨 0.22%，恒生科技指数跌 1.07%。 海外方面，美国股市三大股指全线下跌，道指跌 0.34%，标普 500 指 数跌 0.84%，纳指跌 1.43%。欧洲股市全线下跌、亚太股市全线上涨。 【重要新闻】 【"十五五"首个中央一号文件公布】《中共中央 国务院关于锚定农业 农村现代化 扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》于 2 月 3 日正式发布， ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48% to 4015.75 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 2.69% [2][7] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.61 trillion RMB, with over 4600 stocks declining [2][7] - In the industry sectors, only food and beverage and banking sectors saw gains, while non-ferrous metals and steel sectors led the declines [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong decreased by 2.23%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 3.36% [2][7] - In international markets, all three major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones increasing by 1.05%, the S&P 500 by 0.54%, and the Nasdaq by 0.56% [2][7] Important News - The State Administration of Taxation has further adjusted and optimized the criteria for determining the value-added tax (VAT) threshold for individuals, raising the threshold for single-instance taxation from 500 RMB to 1000 RMB [3][8] - Specific scenarios, such as renting out real estate and selling scrapped products, will now follow a monthly sales threshold of 100,000 RMB instead of the per-instance threshold [3][8] Industry Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of service consumption growth, emphasizing its increasing importance in the economy [9][10] - The "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption" outlines 12 policy measures aimed at optimizing and expanding service supply, focusing on key and potential areas for development [9][10] - Service consumption accounted for 46.15% of per capita consumer spending in 2025, showing a steady increase from 2024, with service retail sales growing by 5.5%, outpacing the overall retail sales growth by 1.8 percentage points [10] Investment Recommendations - The shift in consumption structure from goods to a balanced focus on goods and services is expected to position service consumption as a primary growth engine [11][12] - The report suggests monitoring companies in the travel chain benefiting from policy catalysts and improving consumer confidence, as well as leading duty-free companies capitalizing on the Hainan Free Trade Port opportunities [12] - Attention is also drawn to chain restaurant leaders in a critical phase of expansion and the early-stage value of emerging experiential sectors like sports events and concerts [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [4][7]. Core Insights - Service consumption is experiencing rapid growth and its importance is continuously increasing. The "Work Plan" released by the State Council on January 29, 2026, aims to optimize and expand service supply, focusing on key and potential areas to cultivate new growth points in service consumption. By 2025, service consumption expenditure is projected to account for 46.15% of per capita household consumption expenditure, showing a steady increase from 2024. Service retail sales are expected to grow by 5.5% year-on-year, outpacing the overall retail sales growth by 1.8 percentage points, indicating strong growth momentum [2]. - The "Work Plan" categorizes supported areas into key and potential sectors, each with distinct characteristics and targeted policies. Key sectors focus on current main service consumption areas, aiming to enhance quality supply to directly stimulate demand, covering transportation services, domestic services, online audio-visual services, travel services, automotive aftermarket, and inbound consumption. This is beneficial for the travel chain and duty-free related sectors within the social service segment. Potential sectors emphasize emerging business formats with strong synergy effects and significant growth potential, including performance services, sports event services, and experiential services, creating long-term investment opportunities in new consumption sectors [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections - The investment suggestion indicates that China's consumption structure is shifting from a product-led model to a balanced approach between goods and service consumption, with experience-based service consumption expected to become a major growth engine. The outlook for 2026 suggests that consumption promotion policies will remain stable, but recovery in the fundamentals will take time due to adjustments in household balance sheets. The social service sector is expected to focus on structural opportunities in the first half of the year. The upcoming 9-day holiday during the Spring Festival is anticipated to further boost the tourism market [3]. - Specific investment opportunities include: (1) companies in the travel chain benefiting from policy catalysts and gradually recovering consumer confidence; (2) duty-free leaders poised to take advantage of the Hainan Free Trade Port's operational opportunities and the new airport duty-free landscape; (3) chain restaurant leaders in a critical phase of scaling and market share growth; (4) early-stage investment value in emerging experiential sectors such as sports events and concerts [3].

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.96% to 4117.95 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.66%. The ChiNext Index, however, rose by 1.27% [1][7] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was 2.86 trillion RMB, with nearly 2900 stocks declining. The communication sector led the gains, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw the largest losses [1][7] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 2.08%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.1%. In the overseas markets, all three major U.S. stock indices declined, with the Dow Jones down by 0.36%, the S&P 500 down by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.94% [1][7] Important News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the acceleration of the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, highlighting the importance of leveraging comparative advantages to promote breakthroughs in future industries [2][8] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI for January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, indicating a decline in business activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [2][8] Sector Analysis - In the social services sector, the proportion of heavy positions in funds increased, with 286 funds holding shares, up by 109 from the previous quarter. The total market value of holdings reached 5.57 billion RMB, an increase of 0.975 billion RMB [9][10] - The heavy position ratio for the social services sector was 0.06%, up by 0.01 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 sectors, indicating potential for rebound as it remains below the 5-year average of 0.34% [9][10] - The hospitality and restaurant sectors showed slight recovery, while the education sector saw a significant decline in heavy position ratios [9][10] Individual Stocks - Leading stocks in the social services sector saw increased holdings, with the top ten stocks' combined heavy position ratio rising to 0.058%, an increase of 0.013 percentage points from the previous quarter. Notable stocks include Huace Testing, Shoulv Hotel, and JiuHua Tourism [10][11] - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the upcoming long holiday and those positioned to take advantage of the Hainan Free Trade Port's opportunities [11] Beauty and Personal Care Sector - The beauty and personal care sector saw a decrease in fund allocation, with the total market value of A-shares at 255.096 billion RMB, down by 10.43% from the previous quarter. The fund allocation ratio was 0.14%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points [12][13] - The personal care and cosmetics segments remain in a low allocation zone, while the medical beauty segment is in an over-allocated position [12][13] - Key stocks in the beauty and personal care sector include Jinbo Biological, Aimeike, and Baiya Shares, with their heavy position ratios declining compared to the previous quarter [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the beauty and personal care industry is "outperforming the market" [4][22]. Core Insights - The fund allocation ratio for the beauty and personal care industry decreased to 0.14% in Q4 2025, down 0.06 percentage points from Q3 2025, indicating a continued low allocation status [1][3][9]. - The total market capitalization of the beauty and personal care industry reached 255.096 billion yuan in Q4 2025, reflecting a 10.43% decrease from Q3 2025 [1][9]. - The medical beauty sector remains in an over-allocated position, while personal care and cosmetics are in a low allocation zone [2][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In Q4 2025, the fund allocation ratio for personal care products was 0.03%, down 0.01 percentage points from Q3 2025, with an over-allocation ratio of -0.04% [2][13]. - The cosmetics sector saw a fund allocation ratio of 0.02% in Q4 2025, down 0.02 percentage points from Q3 2025, with an over-allocation ratio of -0.1% [2][13]. - The medical beauty sector's fund allocation ratio was 0.09% in Q4 2025, down 0.03 percentage points from Q3 2025, with an over-allocation ratio of 0.02% [2][13]. Individual Stocks - The top three stocks in the beauty and personal care sector by fund allocation in Q4 2025 were Jinbo Biological, Aimeike, and Baiya Shares, with a total heavy holding ratio of 0.05%, down 0.02 percentage points from Q3 2025 [2][15][19]. - Jinbo Biological had a heavy holding ratio of 0.0163%, Aimeike at 0.0156%, and Baiya Shares at 0.0040% in Q4 2025, all showing a decline compared to Q3 2025 [15][19]. Investment Recommendations - In the context of stabilizing the economy and expanding domestic demand, it is recommended to focus on: 1. Cosmetics and medical beauty: There is significant demand potential in the medium to long term, supported by regulatory policies favoring compliant companies [3][20]. 2. Personal care products: The growing emphasis on health and wellness among consumers suggests opportunities for leading companies with strong R&D capabilities [3][20].

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 30 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周四 A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.16%，深成指收 跌 0.3%，创业板指收跌 0.57%。沪深两市成交额 32297.14 亿元。申 万行业方面，食品饮料、传媒、房地产领涨，电子、国防军工、电力 设备领跌；概念板块方面，白酒、小红书、赛马概念涨幅居前，光刻 机、国家大基金持股、中芯国际概念跌幅居前。港股方面，恒生指数 收涨 0.51%，恒生科技指数收跌 1%；海外方面，美国三大指数涨跌不 一，道指收涨 0.11%，标普 500 收跌 0.13%，纳指收跌 0.72%。 【重要新闻】 【贵金属市场再度上演"过山车"行情】1 月 29 日，黄金、白银在亚 市、欧市交易时段强势走高，现货黄金一度逼近 5600 美元/盎司关 口，现货白银则连续突破 117、118、119、120 和 121 美元/盎司五道 关口。纽约市场交易时段金银价格急转直下，现货黄金直线跳水跌近 6%失守 5100 美元/ ...

Market Overview - In January, the A-share market showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,122.58 points, up 3.87% from the end of 2025. The STAR 50 and CSI 500 indices experienced significant gains [3][10] - The market liquidity improved, with a notable increase in average daily trading volume and a decrease in the scale of major shareholder reductions. The scale of locked-up shares released also declined [3][21] Market Liquidity and Risk Sentiment - As of January 22, the average daily trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 30,329.76 billion yuan, reflecting a 61.26% increase month-on-month. The net reduction in major shareholders was 445.42 billion yuan, which was a slight decrease compared to the previous month [21][26] - Investor sentiment remained high, with increased trading activity in small and mid-cap stocks. The commercial aerospace sector experienced significant volatility [30] Valuation Levels - As of January 22, the dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the STAR 50 index was at a historical high, positioned at the 99.23 percentile. Most major indices saw an increase in their historical valuation percentiles compared to the previous month [36][37] - Among the 27 industries, valuation levels increased, with 19 industries exceeding the historical 50th percentile in dynamic P/E ratios, indicating a general uplift in valuation levels across sectors [38][41] Policy Analysis - The macroeconomic environment showed resilience, with China's GDP surpassing 140 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 5.0% year-on-year. The government emphasized the need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate consumption and investment [42][44] - Recent policies focused on promoting green consumption and enhancing service sector capabilities, which are expected to activate consumption potential across various sectors, including home appliances and automotive [44][45]