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汽车行业周报:汽车报废回收增速明显提升,“金九”表现值得期待
Southwest Securities· 2024-09-02 06:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry as of September 1, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant increase in the growth rate of vehicle scrapping and recycling, with expectations for strong performance in September, traditionally known as the "Golden September" [2]. - The implementation of policies supporting the replacement of old commercial vehicles is expected to stimulate demand, with a notable increase in subsidy applications for vehicle scrapping [2]. - The report highlights investment opportunities arising from the acceleration of the new car cycle and the enhancement of old-for-new vehicle policies, particularly in the smart vehicle sector led by companies like Huawei [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The automotive sector index rose by 2.7% last week, with passenger vehicles retailing at 1.305 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5% [7][21]. - The wholesale of passenger vehicles reached 1.267 million units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2% but an 11% increase month-on-month [21]. 2. Policy Developments - The Ministry of Transport and other departments issued a notice to enhance the scrapping and updating of old commercial vehicles, with central and local governments sharing the financial burden [2][22]. - Various provinces, including Beijing and Hunan, have introduced specific plans to support the replacement of old vehicles, with increased subsidy amounts for consumers [22]. 3. Sales Performance - For the period from August 1 to 25, 2024, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 718,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 48% [2][21]. - Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 5.707 million units, reflecting a 35% year-on-year growth [21]. 4. Key Companies and Investment Targets - Recommended companies include GAC Group, BYD, and others involved in the new energy vehicle sector, as well as those benefiting from the old-for-new vehicle policies [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the potential of companies involved in the smart vehicle technology space, particularly those collaborating with Huawei [2][3]. 5. New Vehicle Launches - Several new models were launched, including the Mercedes-Benz V-Class and various electric and hybrid vehicles from different manufacturers [27][28].
匠心家居:业绩表现亮眼,自主品牌持续拓展
Southwest Securities· 2024-09-02 06:00
[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 31 日 证券研究报告•2024 年中报点评 持有 (维持) 当前价:51.20 元 匠心家居(301061)轻工制造 目标价:——元(6 个月) 业绩表现亮眼,自主品牌持续拓展 [Table_Summary 事件:公司发布] 2024年中报。2024年 H1公司实现营收12.1亿元,同比+27.7%; 实现归母净利润 2.9亿元,同比+41.8%;实现扣非净利润 2.6亿元,同比+48.1%。 单季度来看,2024年 Q2公司实现营收 6.5亿元,同比+25.2%;实现归母净利 润 1.6亿元,同比+31.9%;实现扣非后归母净利润 1.4亿元,同比 28.9%。24 年 Q2 公司营收利润保持较快增长趋势。 费控良好,盈利能力保持较高水平。报告期内,公司整体毛利率为 33.2%,同 比+1.8pp;其中 2024 年 Q2 毛利率为 33.1%,同比+0.5pp;分产品看,2024 年 H1公司智能电动沙发毛利率为 33.9%(+1.7pp),智能电动床毛利率为 33.3% (+0.8pp),配件毛利率为 27.8%(+7.2pp)。分销售区 ...
蒙牛乳业:2024年半年报点评:经营利润率持续提升,回购注重股东利益
Southwest Securities· 2024-09-02 05:59
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) with a target price of HKD 16.25 [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 447 billion for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, and an operating profit of RMB 31.2 billion, down 4.8% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to inventory digestion and controlled shipment pace to maintain reasonable inventory levels at the terminal [2]. - The gross margin improved to 40.3%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw milk prices [2]. - The company plans to repurchase up to HKD 2 billion of its shares and increase the dividend payout ratio, emphasizing shareholder interests [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 447 billion, down 12.6% year-on-year, with operating profit at RMB 31.2 billion, a decrease of 4.8% [2]. - The revenue breakdown by product categories shows liquid milk at RMB 362 billion (-12.9%), ice cream at RMB 33.7 billion (-21.8%), milk powder at RMB 16.4 billion (-13.7%), and cheese at RMB 21.1 billion (-6.3%) [2]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 40.3%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, and an operating profit margin of 7%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is RMB 45.0 billion, RMB 50.2 billion, and RMB 55.8 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.14, RMB 1.28, and RMB 1.42 [3][4]. - The dynamic PE ratios for the same period are projected at 11x, 9x, and 9x [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing shareholder returns through share buybacks and increasing dividend payouts [2]. - The FIRST strategy will continue to drive high-quality development in operations and management [2]. - The company is addressing the supply-demand imbalance in raw milk through various support measures to stabilize dairy farming operations [2].
三全食品:2024年半年报点评:短期业绩承压,期待后续调整
Southwest Securities· 2024-09-02 05:56
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [1] Core Views - The company's short-term performance is under pressure, with expectations for future adjustments [1] - The company reported a revenue of 3.67 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 330 million yuan, down 23.8% year-on-year [1][2] - The decline in revenue is attributed to weak consumer demand in the frozen food sector, while the catering market showed stable growth [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.67 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 330 million yuan, down 23.8% year-on-year [1] - The revenue for Q2 2024 was 1.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 103 million yuan, down 34.6% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 25.9%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Product and Market Analysis - Revenue from frozen rice and noodle products in H1 2024 was 3.14 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, with traditional rice and noodle products generating 2.06 billion yuan, down 7.8% [1] - The catering market revenue increased by 8.1% year-on-year to 680 million yuan, driven by new product launches targeting chain restaurants [1][2] Cost and Expense Management - The sales expense ratio increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 12.6% in H1 2024, reflecting increased investment in channel and brand promotion [2] - The net profit margin for H1 2024 was 9.1%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance profit contribution from traditional rice and noodle products while increasing the introduction of healthier and personalized new products [2] - There is a focus on expanding the hot pot ingredient segment and increasing resource allocation for hot pot meat products [2] - The company aims to improve its direct sales and distribution systems while accelerating online channel development [2] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.74 yuan, 0.78 yuan, and 0.83 yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 14x, 13x, and 12x [2]
中鼎股份:2024半年报点评:国内落地项目成绩亮眼,增量业务势头良好
Southwest Securities· 2024-09-02 05:56
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.669 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.08%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 716 million yuan, up 34.83% year-on-year [2] - The company has shown strong growth in its smart chassis systems and sealing systems, with significant revenue increases across various segments [2][3] - The company is actively expanding its presence in the new energy sector, with revenue from this area reaching 3.34 billion yuan, accounting for 36.38% of total automotive revenue in H1 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.977 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.96% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.07%. The net profit for the same period was 355 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.17% [2] - The overall gross margin for Q1 and Q2 2024 was 22.42% and 22.05%, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase [2] Business Segments - Revenue from the smart chassis air suspension system, lightweight materials, rubber products, cooling systems, and sealing systems for H1 2024 was 570 million, 1.43 billion, 1.93 billion, 2.54 billion, and 1.94 billion yuan, respectively, with notable year-on-year growth rates [2] - The sealing business, through overseas acquisitions, has seen steady growth, with KACO China reporting a revenue of 403 million yuan in H1 2024, up 19.3% year-on-year [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a leading position in the domestic air suspension market through the acquisition of AMK, with significant orders from various domestic automakers [3] - The lightweight system segment has also seen global expansion, with orders totaling approximately 4.6 billion yuan in H1 2024 [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.9% in net profit from 2024 to 2026, supported by ongoing business expansion and order growth [5]
伊利股份:2024年半年报点评:渠道库存调整基本到位,期待下半年轻装上阵
Southwest Securities· 2024-09-02 05:56
[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 30 日 证券研究报告•2024 年半年报点评 买入 (维持) 当前价:22.63 元 伊利股份(600887)食品饮料 目标价:——元(6 个月) 渠道库存调整基本到位,期待下半年轻装上阵 [Table_Summary 事件:公司发布] 2024 年半年报,上半年实现营业总收入 599 亿元,同比下滑 9.5%;实现归母净利润 75.3亿元,同比增长 19.4%。其中 24Q2实现营业总收 入 273亿元,同比下滑 16.5%;实现归母净利润 16.1亿元,同比下滑 40.2%。 液奶渠道库存调整基本到位,奶粉及奶制品增速领先。2024H1液体乳、奶粉及 奶制品、冷饮产品分别实现营业收入 369亿元(-13%)、145亿元(+7.3%)、 73.2 亿元(-20%)。1)液体乳:渠道库存调整已基本到位,终端表现好于行 业整体,零售额继续稳居行业第一。白奶表现领先,低温液奶逆势增长。2)奶 粉及奶制品:公司整体婴幼儿奶粉、成人奶粉零售额市场份额分别达到 16.9%、 24.3%;奶酪线下零售额市场份额约 18.8%(+1.2pp)。3)冷饮:受天 ...
帝科股份:2024年半年报点评:扣非净利同比高增,研发有望持续赋能
Southwest Securities· 2024-09-02 05:56
[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 31 日 证券研究报告•2024 年半年报点评 买入 (维持) 当前价:35.75 元 帝科股份(300842)电力设备 目标价:——元(6 个月) 扣非净利同比高增,研发有望持续赋能 [Table_Summary 业绩总结:公司发布 ] 2024 年半年度报告。24H1 公司营收 75.9 亿元,同比 +118.3%;归母净利润 2.3 亿元,同比+14.9%;扣非净利润 3.5 亿元,同比 +154.2%。其中 24Q2 营收 39.4 亿元,环比+8.2%;归母净利润 0.6 亿元,环 比-67.5%;扣非净利润 1.6亿元,环比-19.9%。24Q2公司计提资产减值+信用 减值损失 3400 万元。 N型 TOPCon 电池基本完成迭代,公司 TOPCon银浆出货同比大幅增长。24H1 下游电池环节 TOPCon成为出货主流,根据 SMM 数据至 6月 PERC 排产占比 不到 20%。TOPCon电池银耗较 PERC 更高,电池产量同比增长,因此行业对 银浆需求同比大幅增长。24H1 公司光伏导电银浆销量 1132.05 吨,同比增长 ...
千禾味业:2024年半年报点评:高基数下收入承压,期待后续经营改善
Southwest Securities· 2024-09-02 05:56
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Qianhe Flavor Industry (603027) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.59 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 250 million yuan, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 690 million yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, and net profit was 96 million yuan, down 14.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The competitive intensity in the zero-additive market has increased, leading to revenue pressure in Q2 due to high base effects from the previous year. The soy sauce segment faced challenges, while other segments maintained stable growth [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing trend towards healthier products, with a focus on expanding its zero-additive product line and enhancing its distribution channels [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 35.6%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year. The Q2 gross margin was 35.2%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix and increased costs [1] - The sales expense ratio in Q2 2024 was 16%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting increased marketing expenditures. The management expense ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 3.4% [1] Product and Channel Strategy - The company plans to continue enriching its zero-additive product line and actively expand categories such as vinegar and cooking wine, with a focus on increasing the proportion of high-margin products [2] - The company is enhancing its distribution network and channel penetration, particularly in underdeveloped markets, which is expected to accelerate growth [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.56 yuan, 0.66 yuan, and 0.76 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24x, 20x, and 18x [2]
新乳业:2024年半年报点评:坚定新五年战略规划,盈利能力持续提升
Southwest Securities· 2024-09-02 05:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 300 million yuan, up 25.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company's "Fresh Cube Strategy" continues to drive growth, particularly in the high-end fresh milk segment, which saw a year-on-year growth of approximately 15% [1]. - The company aims to double its net profit margin over the next five years through a focus on low-temperature products, technological innovation, and strategic acquisitions [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.75 billion yuan, a decline of 0.9% year-on-year, while the net profit was 210 million yuan, an increase of 17.7% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 29.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw milk prices and product mix optimization [1]. - The net profit margin for H1 2024 was 5.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point [1]. Business Strategy - The company is committed to its new five-year strategic plan, focusing on strengthening its core business and enhancing corporate value [1]. - The company has secured 60% of its raw milk supply through self-owned and equity-held sources, aligning with its Fresh Cube Strategy and reinforcing its market position in low-temperature dairy products [1]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 540 million yuan for 2024, 640 million yuan for 2025, and 760 million yuan for 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.63 yuan, 0.75 yuan, and 0.88 yuan [2][3]. - The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 14 times for 2024, 12 times for 2025, and 10 times for 2026 [2].
森麒麟:2024半年报点评:Q2净利率创新高,摩洛哥工厂预计Q4投产
Southwest Securities· 2024-09-02 05:54
Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 10.77 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 77.71%, with a net profit margin of 28.76% in Q2, reaching a historical high [2] - The company's semi-steel tire and export demand remain strong, with a production volume of 16.09 million tires in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.90% [2] - The Morocco factory is expected to start production in Q4 2024, which will further enhance the company's growth potential [2][8] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue reached 41.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.21%, with a gross profit margin of 35.27% in Q2, the highest since 2021 [2][3] - The company's net profit in Q2 was 5.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.11%, with a net profit margin of 28.76%, the highest in history [2] - The company's financial expenses decreased by 46.88% year-on-year in H1 2024, mainly due to increased interest income [3] Production and Sales - In H1 2024, the company produced 16.09 million tires, a year-on-year increase of 18.90%, with semi-steel tire production reaching 15.60 million, up 17.90% year-on-year [2] - The company sold 15.10 million tires in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.35%, with semi-steel tire sales reaching 14.61 million, up 9.06% year-on-year [2] - The operating rate of semi-steel tires remained high at 79% as of August 29, 2024 [2] Overseas Expansion - The company's Thailand plant achieved a revenue of 2.61 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42.36%, with a net profit of 708 million yuan, up 109.73% year-on-year [8] - The Morocco factory, with an annual production capacity of 12 million high-performance passenger and light truck radial tires, is expected to start production in Q4 2024 [8] - The company is also steadily advancing the Spain project, which will further boost its performance [8] Profitability and Valuation - The company's gross profit margin in Q2 2024 was 35.27%, a year-on-year increase of 12.82 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 28.76%, a year-on-year increase of 9.81 percentage points [3] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 10.13 in 2024, with a PB ratio of 1.78 [9] - The company's ROE is expected to be 17.55% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 24.76% [9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% in net profit from 2024 to 2026 [8] - The company's overseas base construction is progressing steadily, and future performance is expected to grow significantly [8] - The company's profit level is leading the industry, and the significant reduction in the anti-dumping tax rate for PCR in Thailand will further enhance profitability [8]