- The GAN_GRU factor is based on the GAN_GRU model, which utilizes a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) for processing volume-price time series features and then uses a GRU model for time series feature encoding to derive the stock selection factor[4][13][14] - The GAN_GRU model includes two GRU layers (GRU(128, 128)) followed by an MLP (256, 64, 64), with the final output prediction return (pRet) used as the stock selection factor[22] - The GAN model consists of a generator and a discriminator. The generator aims to generate data that appears real, while the discriminator aims to distinguish between real and generated data. The generator's loss function is $L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))]$[23][24][25] - The discriminator's loss function is $L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{data}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))]$[27][28][29] - The GAN_GRU model's training process involves alternating training of the generator and discriminator until convergence[30] - The GAN_GRU factor's performance from January 2019 to September 2025 shows an IC mean of 0.1136, an annualized excess return of 22.58%, and a recent IC of 0.1053 as of September 28, 2025[41][42] - The GAN_GRU factor's IC mean for the past year is 0.0982, with the highest IC values in the coal, building materials, social services, non-bank finance, and food & beverage industries[42][44] - The top-performing long portfolios in September 2025, based on the GAN_GRU factor, include sectors like building materials, steel, social services, coal, and non-bank finance, with excess returns of 5.78%, 5.13%, 1.91%, 1.55%, and 1.21%, respectively[45] - Over the past year, the top-performing long portfolios based on the GAN_GRU factor include home appliances, building materials, food & beverage, utilities, and textiles & apparel, with average monthly excess returns of 5.04%, 4.96%, 3.92%, 3.53%, and 3.10%, respectively[46] - The top stocks in each industry based on the GAN_GRU factor as of September 28, 2025, include companies like Baolaite, Yutaiwei-U, Cangge Mining, Tuowei Information, Hengtong Co., Angang Co., and others[49][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may break through its downward space in the fourth quarter. After experiencing multiple "stress tests" in the third quarter, the bond market has shown strong resilience. With the improvement of the bond market's adaptability to the strengthening of the equity market and the decline of the excessive trading of long - term bonds, a more rational pricing logic may dominate the market again, and the stable allocation demand will become the "ballast stone" for the interest rate to decline. The interest rate is expected to be in a "moderate" downward state [8][46]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Can the Bond Market Break Through the Sideways Trend in the Fourth Quarter? 3.1.1 The Bond Market Fluctuated Widely in September, with Bulls and Bears in a Fierce Battle and a Wavy Uptrend - The valuation yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has basically completed the anchoring to the "new bond". The spread between the new bond (250016) and the old bond (250011) is basically stable at 5 - 8BP, and the yield - to - maturity compensation due to value - added tax is about 2.8% - 4.5% [1][11]. - The capital interest rate fluctuated significantly due to the cross - quarter effect, and the central level increased to some extent. The increase in the central level of the capital interest rate led to an upward trend in the bond market interest rate and a compression of the Carry space, resulting in bond market selling pressure [1][14]. - The bond cashing demand of the bank's OCI account is one of the factors pressuring the bond market. From September 1st to 26th, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were the main sellers in the bond market [2][18]. - Regulatory policy adjustments and the increasing expectation of restarting treasury bond trading also drove the bond market trend. The "new rule" led to a rapid correction in the bond market in early September, while the increasing expectation of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading supported the rebound in mid - September [2][21]. 3.1.2 The Bond Market May Break Through the Downward Space in the Fourth Quarter - The "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds weakened in September. If the equity market turns into a slow - bull pattern in the fourth quarter, the suppression on the bond market from the equity market may ease [3][23]. - The price level is still in the repair stage, with PPI bottoming out and rising, but CPI has not shown signs of recovery. If the economic recovery slope is lower than expected or Sino - US economic and trade relations deteriorate unexpectedly, there is still a possibility of another interest rate cut this year [5][28]. - From the supply side, the fourth quarter is usually the "off - season" for government bond supply, but attention should be paid to the possible advance issuance of the special bonds for replacing hidden debts in 2026. Even if the supply pressure increases, the impact on the market may be relatively controllable, and the central bank may use open - market operations for hedging [6][33]. - From the demand side, even if the "new rule" is implemented in the fourth quarter, its impact on the bond market is likely to be short - term and frictional, not a trend - based decline in demand. The demand from core bond - market allocators such as wealth management and insurance remains strong [7][40]. 3.2 Important Matters - The net MLF injection was 300 billion yuan in September. On September 25th, the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a maturity scale of 300 billion yuan in September [48]. 3.3 Money Market 3.3.1 Open - Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends - From September 22nd to 26th, the central bank injected a total of 2.4674 trillion yuan through reverse repurchase operations, with a maturity of 1.8268 trillion yuan, and the net injection was 640.6 billion yuan. It is expected that 516.6 billion yuan of base money will be recalled from September 29th to 30th [50]. - The inter - bank liquidity was tight first and then loose last week, mainly due to the central bank's protection of liquidity. As of September 26th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by - 16.49BP, 3.78BP, - 14.62BP, and 2.17BP respectively compared with September 19th [54]. 3.3.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, commercial banks' inter - bank certificates of deposit showed a net outflow, with a net financing scale of - 188.79 billion yuan last week. The issuing scale of state - owned banks was the largest, but they also had the largest net outflow [59][63]. - The issuing interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased last week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit at all maturities showed an upward trend [64][67]. 3.4 Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply of interest - rate bonds was relatively small last week. The total actual issuance was 60.834 billion yuan, with a maturity of 9.2 billion yuan and a net financing of 51.634 billion yuan [68]. - In the secondary market, the bond market sentiment was relatively weak last week, showing an upward trend in the shock, and the curve shape became steeper. The average daily turnover rates of the 10 - year treasury bond and 10 - year CDB bond active bonds decreased, and the liquidity premium of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond increased [68][77]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The institutional leverage ratio increased seasonally in August but was at a seasonal low year - on - year. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased last week, with an average of about 7.27 trillion yuan [94][99]. - In the cash bond market, state - owned banks increased their purchases of treasury bonds within 5 years and 5 - 10 years; rural commercial banks continued to sell but with a reduced intensity; insurance institutions continued to increase their holdings of treasury bonds and local bonds over 10 years; securities firms and funds sold significantly [104]. - The current average cost of major trading desks for adding positions in 10 - year treasury bonds is around 1.85% [107]. 3.6 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar and wire rod futures decreased, while those of cathode copper, cement, and glass increased. The CCFI index decreased, and the BDI index increased [117]. - In terms of food prices, the pork wholesale price decreased, and the vegetable wholesale price increased. The settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased [117]. - The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.12 last week [117].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The listing of the second batch of Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs led to a sharp increase in the share of credit - bond ETFs, while other types of bond ETFs faced different challenges. The performance of existing ETFs was under pressure, possibly due to the diversion of funds by new - issued ETFs, and the net value of bond ETFs adjusted due to the upward pressure on bond market yields [2][4][9]. Summary by Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - The listing of the second batch of 14 Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs on September 24, 2025, led to a significant increase in the share of credit - bond ETFs. Other types of bond ETFs, such as treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs, either had small changes or declines in share. As of September 26, 2025, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs were 684.71 million, 443.12 million, 80.18 million, 6869.38 million, and 5310.15 million respectively, with a total of 13387.53 million shares for bond - type ETFs. Compared with September 19, 2025, the changes were 12.28 million, - 17.61 million, no change, 1193.45 million, and - 78.70 million respectively, with a total change of 1109.42 million shares [2][4][9]. 1.2 主要债券 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The performance of existing major bond ETFs was under pressure, possibly because the market focused more on new - issued Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs, causing a siphon effect on funds. As of September 26, 2025, the shares of selected major bond ETFs (30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial - bond ETF, 5 - year local - bond ETF, urban - investment - bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF) changed by - 0.14 million, - 17.72 million, no change, 0.10 million, and - 11.80 million respectively compared with September 19, 2025. - Due to the upward pressure on bond market yields, the net value of major bond ETFs adjusted. As of September 26, 2025, the net values of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial - bond ETF, 5 - year local - bond ETF, urban - investment - bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF changed by - 0.48%, - 0.17%, - 0.03%, - 0.13%, and 0.88% respectively compared with September 19, 2025 [12][15]. 1.3 做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The share of 8 existing market - making credit - bond ETFs continued to flow out. As of September 26, 2025, the share changes compared with September 19, 2025 were - 2.00 million, - 5.20 million, - 0.30 million, no change, - 3.00 million, 3.10 million, no change, and - 2.30 million respectively. - The net - value decline of 8 credit - bond ETFs narrowed marginally. As of September 26, 2025, the net - value changes compared with September 19, 2025 were - 0.24%, - 0.24%, - 0.26%, - 0.20%, - 0.34%, - 0.32%, - 0.34%, and - 0.32% respectively. - Last week, the repeated inclusion of individual bonds in the PCF list of credit - bond ETFs was 24 Zhongmei K2. The product of the excess - return change and the corresponding duration of each expanded bond was the highest for 24 Jingtou K6 (1.93%) and the lowest for 24 Zhongmei K2 (- 0.25%) [19][20][22]. 1.4 科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - On September 24, 2025, the second batch of 14 Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs were officially listed, with a total issuance scale of 40.786 billion yuan. The ETFs tracking the CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond, SSE AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond, and Shenzhen AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond indexes were 10, 3, and 1 respectively. - The net - purchase scale of the second - batch Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs showed differentiation. Since the listing on the 24th, the market activity of the second - batch products was significantly higher than that of the first - batch products. The three - day average turnover rates of the first and second batches were 26.0% and 66.7% respectively, and the total net - purchase shares were 72 million and 690 million respectively. The top three products with the most net - purchase inflows last week were Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Industrial Bank, Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF ICBC, and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Huatai - PineBridge, with net - purchase amounts of 10.2 billion, 8.48 billion, and 8.11 billion yuan respectively. - The products corresponding to the CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond index performed relatively better. In terms of premium and discount, in the first 3 working days after listing, the overall performance of the second - batch Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs was better than that of the first - batch products, with a three - day average premium - discount rate of - 0.02%, 0.15bp higher than that of the first batch. - The share increase of Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs came from new - issued funds. As of September 26, 2025, the top three products in terms of share were Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Harvest, Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Penghua, and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF China Merchants, with shares of 198.23 million, 191.38 million, and 184.67 million respectively, and the share changes compared with September 19, 2025 were - 0.38 million, 17.60 million, and 39.05 million respectively. As of September 26, the cumulative share of new - issued products was 1296.6 million. - The net values of the second - batch products were generally in the forefront. As of September 26, 2025, the top three products in terms of net value among 24 Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs were Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Yongying, Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Yin Hua, and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Taikang, with net values of 0.9988, 0.9984, and 0.9983 respectively [25][26][28]. 1.5 部分债券 ETF 净流入情况 - In terms of weekly inflows, the top three bond ETFs with the highest cumulative inflows this week were Treasury - bond ETF Dongcai, Benchmark Treasury - bond ETF, and National - Development - Bond ETF, with inflows of 8.98 million, 8.42 million, and 0.17 million yuan respectively. - In terms of monthly inflows, the top three bond ETFs with the highest cumulative inflows this month were Urban - investment - bond ETF, 30 - year Treasury - bond ETF, and Benchmark Treasury - bond ETF, with inflows of 84.65 million, 15.31 million, and 14.37 million yuan respectively. - In terms of cumulative inflows in trading days, the top three bond ETFs with the highest cumulative inflows in the past 10 trading days were Treasury - bond ETF Dongcai (9.59 million yuan), Benchmark Treasury - bond ETF (6.02 million yuan), and Urban - investment - bond ETF (4.58 million yuan); the top three in the past 20 trading days were Urban - investment - bond ETF (84.65 million yuan), 30 - year Treasury - bond ETF (15.31 million yuan), and Benchmark Treasury - bond ETF (14.37 million yuan) [5][30].

Domestic Developments - The steel industry has set a target for an average annual growth of around 4% in value added for 2025-2026, as outlined in the "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan" issued on September 22[6] - The financial sector has achieved significant growth, with total assets of the banking industry reaching approximately 470 trillion yuan, ranking first globally, and the stock and bond markets ranking second[9] - The service trade policy aims to enhance quality and expand capacity, focusing on five key areas including capital utilization and international market expansion, with service exports growing by 15.3% year-on-year from January to July 2025[14] International Developments - U.S. President Trump announced a new fee of $100,000 for H-1B visa applications, which may hinder the recruitment of tech talent[15] - The Eurozone's composite PMI rose to 51.2 in September, the highest in 16 months, indicating economic expansion, although concerns about growth sustainability remain due to weak new orders[17] - Freeport-McMoRan announced a supply contract entered into "force majeure" status due to a significant landslide at its Grasberg mine, which may reduce copper production by approximately 35% in 2026[21] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.57% week-on-week, while iron ore and cathode copper prices rose by 0.48% and 0.12%, respectively[23] - Rebar prices increased by 0.32%, cement prices rose by 1.85%, and thermal coal prices went up by 1.69% week-on-week[28] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 19.73% week-on-week, with first-tier cities seeing a 21.50% increase[38]

Group 1 - The core investment philosophy of the fund manager emphasizes "value investment + absolute return," focusing on valuation, cash flow, and fundamental certainty to achieve long-term stable returns [1][14] - The fund adopts a "core + satellite" allocation framework, avoiding trends and focusing on undervalued assets, with a balanced sector allocation to mitigate risks [1][14] - The fund manager has a strong track record, with a total return of 10.71% since taking over the fund, ranking in the top 28.96% among peers [2][23] Group 2 - The fund's asset allocation primarily consists of high-grade credit bonds, with a significant portion (50%-87%) allocated to credit bonds, and a recent increase in interest rate bonds to 21.33% [3][35] - The equity allocation remains below 20%, with an average historical stock position of 13.14%, focusing on large-cap, undervalued, and high-quality stocks [2][40] - The fund's industry allocation is heavily weighted towards electricity and public utilities, maintaining a proportion of 17.84%-28.06% from Q4 2023 to Q2 2025 [2][48] Group 3 - The fund has demonstrated strong performance in controlling drawdowns, with a maximum drawdown of -1.29%, significantly better than the peer average [2][24] - The probability of making a profit after holding the fund for three months is 92.41%, indicating a high success rate for investors [2][29] - The fund manager employs a dynamic stock selection strategy, focusing on large-cap stocks with low valuations and high quality, while maintaining a balanced growth style [2][40]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 15.40 CNY for the next six months, based on a current price of 12.11 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the company's focus on expanding its new energy vehicle (NEV) offerings, alongside its globalization and smart technology initiatives, which are expected to create new growth opportunities [1][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 72.69 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.29 billion CNY, down 19.1% year-on-year [6][22]. - The company’s sales volume increased by 1.6% to 1.355 million units, marking the highest level for the same period in eight years [6][22]. - The gross margin improved to 14.6%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability in core operations [6][22]. Business Analysis - The company’s NEV sales reached 452,000 units in the first half of 2025, representing a 49.1% year-on-year increase, outperforming the industry average [6][22]. - The company plans to launch 35 new smart NEV models over the next three years, establishing a strong product pipeline for long-term growth [6][22]. - The traditional fuel vehicle segment remains stable, with key models maintaining market leadership, while overseas sales grew by 5.1% to 299,000 units in the first half of 2025 [6][22]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts EPS of 0.77 CNY, 0.95 CNY, and 1.12 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][68]. - Given the anticipated rapid growth in NEV sales and the expansion of overseas markets, the report assigns a 20x PE ratio for 2025, leading to a target price of 15.40 CNY [6][68].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The differences in central bank systems between domestic and overseas are systematic in deposit reserve systems, accounting system frameworks, and financial regulatory mechanisms, reflecting different economic structures, financial market development stages, and policy goals [3][75]. - These differences are rational choices based on each country's economic development stage, financial market structure, legal system tradition, and policy goal priorities. Developed countries tend to adopt market - led institutional arrangements, while emerging market countries focus more on policy execution, risk prevention, and system stability [75]. - In the future, with the further integration of global financial markets and enhanced macro - policy coordination, central banks may learn from each other's experiences while maintaining their own characteristics to optimize monetary policy frameworks and financial regulatory systems [75]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1海内外存款准备金制度的异同 - **Historical and Current Significance of Deposit Reserve System** - Historically, it was a fundamental tool for quantitative regulation, controlling inflation and preventing bank runs by limiting banks' lending capacity [8]. - Currently, it serves as a tool for structural regulation and liquidity management, with functions such as adjusting liquidity, supporting key areas, performing counter - cyclical regulation, and guiding market expectations [8]. - **Overseas Deposit Reserve System Status** - **Countries with 0% Reserve Requirement**: The US, UK, Australia, and Canada have a 0% legal deposit reserve requirement. Their monetary policy has shifted from quantitative to price - based, with the marginal role of legal reserves significantly reduced [9][13]. - **Japan and South Korea**: They still maintain the legal deposit reserve system, with rates ranging from 0% - 1.3% in Japan and 0% - 7% in South Korea. They keep it as a "base" and operational support for payment and settlement stability and special - period adjustments [19]. - **Domestic Deposit Reserve System Status** - **"Implicit Lower Limit" of 5%**: It reflects the central bank's "psychological bottom line" in the quantitative monetary policy framework. The reserve system has shifted from a "strong constraint" to a "weak constraint" on bank leverage [23]. - **Significance**: It provides a macro - level buffer for the indirect - financing - based financial system, offers policy space for counter - cyclical adjustment, and is suitable for the current monetary policy operation framework [23]. - **Potential Directions**: The system is likely to be retained. A more feasible short - term path is to unify standards before discussing breaking the "implicit lower limit." Introducing inventory cash as a reserve alternative could release liquidity [26]. 3.2海内外央行会计制度的异同 - **Differences in Central Bank Balance Sheet Items** - **Asset Side**: China's central bank's assets are mainly foreign exchange assets and claims on financial institutions, while those of the US, EU, and Japan are more concentrated in bond holdings, due to different money - issuing mechanisms [28]. - **Liability Side**: China includes currency issuance and financial institution deposits in the "Reserve Money" item, and currently has no "reverse repurchase agreement" item. Its main way of base - money injection is through adjusting the deposit reserve ratio [41]. - **Differences in Accounting Element Measurement Attributes** - **China**: It mainly uses historical cost for asset measurement, which helps maintain financial market stability and reduces workload [52]. - **Overseas**: Central banks use various methods such as amortized cost, historical cost, and fair value. The reasons include differences in policy goals, fiscal relationships, profit - distribution mechanisms, and legal systems [57]. 3.3海内外金融监管体系中宏观审慎与微观审慎的差异 - **US Financial Regulatory System** - **Macro - Prudence**: The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) is the core coordinating body, with the Fed providing stress - test data and other agencies providing relevant risk data [65]. - **Micro - Prudence**: Different agencies are responsible for the micro - prudential supervision of different financial sub - sectors, such as the OCC for national banks and the Fed for bank - holding companies [65]. - **China's Financial Regulatory System** - **Macro - Prudence**: Under the overall coordination of the Central Financial Commission, the People's Bank of China is the core executive department, responsible for most capital - market macro - prudential management outside the on - exchange market, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission is responsible for on - exchange market supervision [68]. - **Micro - Prudence**: Different agencies are responsible for the micro - prudential supervision of different financial sectors, such as the People's Bank of China for specific areas and the National Financial Regulatory Administration for most non - securities financial institutions [68]. - **Similarities and Differences between China and the US** - **Similarities**: Both countries have established higher - level committees for overall management, involve central banks in macro - prudence, and have commonalities in micro - prudential regulatory goals and indicators [73]. - **Differences**: China emphasizes centralized and unified management, with administrative coordination and window guidance in macro - prudence, while the US has a multi - agency, market - oriented, and legalized regulatory system [73]. 3.4结语 The differences in central bank systems between domestic and overseas are profound and diverse, which are rational choices based on different national conditions. In the future, international cooperation in the fields of digital economy, cross - border capital flow, and systemic risk prevention will be crucial for the construction of a more resilient and inclusive global financial system [75].

Domestic Developments - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced reforms to enhance cross-border investment and financing, increasing the convenience and limits for such activities[7] - Nine government departments released 19 specific measures to boost service consumption, aiming to direct public finance and market capital towards key infrastructure and emerging industries[9] - From January to August, national public budget revenue reached 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while expenditure grew by 3.1%[11] International Developments - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, marking a total reduction of 125 basis points in the current easing cycle[22] - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone rose to 26.1 in September, indicating improved investor confidence in the European economy[18] - U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 2.1% after adjusting for CPI[20] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.70% week-on-week, while iron ore and copper prices rose by 0.33% and 0.80%, respectively[25] - Real estate sales saw a significant week-on-week increase of 10.31%, indicating a rebound in the housing market[30] - The average price of rebar rose by 0.58% week-on-week, while cement prices slightly decreased by 0.05%[30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on innovative drugs, AI healthcare, and brain-computer interfaces [1]. Core Insights - The report analyzes 362 pharmaceutical listed companies, including those on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, reporting a total revenue of 1,084.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 103.64 billion yuan, down 1.1%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 88.905 billion yuan, down 9.4% [3][17]. - In H1 2025, 165 companies achieved revenue growth, accounting for 46% of the total, while 165 companies also reported positive net profit growth, also 46% [17]. Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical industry faced pressure from policies and macroeconomic conditions, leading to a decline in performance in H1 2025 [19]. - The overall revenue for the industry decreased by 2.1%, with a net profit decline of 1.1% [46]. Subsector Analysis - **Innovative Drugs and Formulations**: Revenue was 194.6 billion yuan (-2.0%), with net profit at 25.8 billion yuan (+1.2%) [5]. - **Medical Devices**: Revenue decreased to 96.8 billion yuan (-5%), with net profit down 16.9% [5]. - **CXO Services**: Revenue increased by 13.8% to 44.85 billion yuan, with net profit rising 64.6% [5]. - **Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients**: Revenue remained stable at 52.88 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 19.1% [5]. - **Life Sciences**: Revenue was 3.9 billion yuan (-1.8%), with net profit down 3.6% [7]. - **Medical Services**: Revenue grew by 0.9% to 28.3 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 10.2% [7]. - **Blood Products**: Revenue was approximately 11.7 billion yuan (-0.3%), with net profit down 14.4% [7]. - **Retail Pharmacies**: Revenue was 57.8 billion yuan (+0.1%), with net profit up 0.9% [9]. - **Pharmaceutical Distribution**: Revenue increased by 0.9% to 404.57 billion yuan, with net profit rising 12.4% [9]. - **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: Revenue decreased by 4.8% to 173 billion yuan, with net profit slightly up by 0.6% [9]. - **Vaccine Sector**: Revenue plummeted by 58.0% to 10.5 billion yuan, with a net loss of 0.5 billion yuan [11]. Financial Metrics - The overall gross margin for the industry was 32.4%, with a decline in the four expense ratios [46][49]. - The report highlights that the CXO sector showed the highest growth in both revenue and net profit, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [34][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the context of unchanged risk preferences, deposit "migration" follows a sequence from pure - bond wealth management products and money market funds to bond funds and equity funds. Pure - bond wealth management products are the main recipients of migrated deposits, followed by money market funds. Bond - type funds have a complex attractiveness structure, and equity funds are mostly outside the deposit migration path. As the equity market strengthens, the order of deposit outflow choices and the bank - to - bank liquidity structure change. The effectiveness of quantity - based indicators such as excess reserves decreases, while the risk of short - term shock to inter - bank liquidity increases, but the central bank's attitude towards liquidity is supportive [1][34][44]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1 Capital Cross - market Rotation and Its Impact on Bond Market Liquidity 1.1 Cost - effectiveness as an Important Consideration for Deposit "Migration" - Due to the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, both household and corporate deposits are migrating. Households are affected by the decline in deposit interest rates, while enterprises are more affected by the ban on manual interest - supplement policies. Insurance products, pure - bond wealth management products, and bond funds have attracted migrated funds due to their yield advantages [12][15][16]. 1.2 Risk Preferences May Disturb the Direction of Deposit "Migration" - When risk preferences are stable, pure - bond wealth management products have the strongest ability to absorb migrated deposits, with a correlation coefficient of 0.87 between the spread of their yields over deposits and the difference between their scale growth rate and deposit growth rate. Money market funds rank second with a correlation of 0.64. Bond - type funds have a complex attractiveness, and equity funds are less involved in deposit migration. As the equity market strengthens, the order of deposit outflow changes, and the bank - to - bank liquidity structure becomes more complex [1][23][34]. 2 Important Matters - In August 2025, CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year; PPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.9% year - on - year. In August, M1 growth continued to pick up, and government bonds were the main support for social financing. The central bank will conduct a 6 - month 6000 - billion - yuan buy - out reverse repurchase operation on September 15, 2025 [55][56][59]. 3 Money Market 3.1 Open - market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From September 8 to 12, 2025, the central bank net - injected 1961 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. It is expected that 13845 billion yuan of base money will be withdrawn from September 15 to 19. Bank - to - bank liquidity tightened marginally last week, and DR001 first rose and then fell [61][67]. 3.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, commercial banks' inter - bank certificates of deposit had a net financing scale of - 4680.1 billion yuan last week. The issuance scale of joint - stock banks was the largest, but they also had a net financing deficit. The issuance interest rate of certificates of deposit increased compared with the previous week. In the secondary market, the yields of certificates of deposit at all tenors increased due to the marginal tightening of the money market [70][74][79]. 4 Bond Market - In the primary market, the main supply of interest - rate bonds last week was still treasury bonds, with a total issuance scale of 5663.7 billion yuan and a net financing scale of 4155.9 billion yuan. The net financing rhythm of local government bonds from January to August was faster than that of treasury bonds. As of September 12, the cumulative net financing scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 was 1.97 trillion yuan. In the secondary market, the bond market was in a weak mood last week, with the curve becoming steeper. The daily average turnover rate of active bonds increased, and the liquidity premium of 10 - year treasury bonds widened [83][90][95]. 5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.31 trillion yuan, and the average leverage trading scale was about 7.49 trillion yuan. In the cash bond market, state - owned banks increased their purchases of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years, rural commercial banks turned from selling to buying, insurance companies bought long - term treasury bonds and local bonds, while securities firms and funds sold bonds. In July 2025, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market decreased seasonally [111][119][122].