ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 01 月 26 日 证券研究报告•宏观专题报告 宏观专题 地缘博弈之西半球变局 ——解析关键矿产安全与大宗定价 趋势：地缘政治与大宗商品价格。全球大国竞争的升温让战略性矿产的安全性 与稀缺性愈发凸显，其作为博弈核心资产的价值持续重估，美国将铜、硅等新 增矿物纳入关键矿产清单，还计划建立 25亿美元的"战略韧性储备"，欧盟、 澳大利亚也纷纷通过战略储备、产业链建设等举措布局关键矿产。预计战略性 资源（包括铜、银、锂、钴、镍、镓、锗、钯、硅、钨、锑和稀土等）价格将 围绕较高中枢宽幅波动，且在地缘风险加剧时期波动性将进一步上升。此外， 由于目前特朗普因中期选举支持率偏低，亟需通过推进西半球战略转移国内矛 盾，地缘政治风险抬升，叠加财政扩张压力，尽管短期波动率受限，但后续催 化事件频发，贵金属价格有望维持震荡上行态势。 风险提示：国际地缘局势变化，全球经济大幅波动。 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：叶凡 执业证号：S1250520060001 电话：010-57631106 邮箱：yefan@swsc.com.cn 分析师：刘彦宏 ...

传媒行业2026年投资策略 AI应用全面开花，游戏电影持续复苏 西南证券研究院 传媒和新消费研究团队 2026年1月 swsc.com.cn 核心观点 AI应用：AI应用生态持续繁荣，AI+游戏、漫剧、陪伴、广告、教育、医疗持续迭代升级。各大厂商加快布局步伐，多模态交互、视频生成等技术 加速演进。蚂蚁灵光、腾讯混元游戏2.0、快手可灵、易点天下 AdsGo.ai等产品推动AI在内容创作、游戏、视频创作、营销等场景加速渗透。重 点关注用户增长、技术迭代与商业化进展。 游戏：2025年游戏市场呈现稳健增长态势，优质内容和IP驱动行业发展。政策鼓励态度明显,版号供给保持充裕态势，全年共计发放1772个版号， 创近年来新高，为行业注入持续活力。产品侧亮点频现，玩法创新成为重要驱动力，"搜打撤"模式（如《三角洲行动》《超自然行动组》）和 SLG融合玩法等创新形态表现突出，有效拓展了用户群体。重点关注新品上线节奏与创新玩法带来的用户增长。 影视：短剧与AI漫剧持续火爆，长视频有望复苏。漫剧在2025年迎来爆发，全年上线近4.7万部，各平台漫剧扶持计划激励与AI的深度介入，2025 年中国免费微短剧市场规模约533亿元，较 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 01 月 26 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（1.19-1.23） 部分科创债 ETF 纳入长久期券 摘要 西南证券研究院 [分析师：杨杰峰 Table_Author] 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 联系人：李茂怡 电话：15528164673 邮箱：limaoyi@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况：净流出态势延续但幅度收窄，资金面有望回 归常态。上周利率债类 ETF、信用债类 ETF、可转债类 ETF净流入资金分别 -63.01亿元、-116.48亿元、+23.05亿元，债券ETF市场合计净流入金额-156.44 亿元。展望后市，当前资金连续流出主要受年末冲量资金撤退的惯性影响。考 虑到近两周债市回暖迹象明显，叠加一季度"开门红"配置需求的释放，预计 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market showed significant structural differentiation, influenced by macro - economic data and central bank liquidity operations. The "broad money" expectation may become the short - term trading focus, and the "stabilizer" effect of banks continues to work, with bonds within 10 years likely to be more stable. Liquidity abundance is expected to support the bond market to stabilize [2]. - In the context of the macro - economy still in the recovery stage and the need to boost the upward slope of prices, the central bank needs to maintain sufficient liquidity to support the real economy effectively [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Important Matters - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% in real terms, with the fourth - quarter real GDP growing by 4.5% and the nominal GDP growing by 3.85%, and the gap between nominal and real GDP growth rates narrowed [5]. - In January 2026, the central bank's MLF net injection was 70 billion yuan, and the medium - and long - term base money net injection in January reached 1 trillion yuan [2][8]. - Six major banks announced the optimization of personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policies, including extending the implementation period, expanding the scope of support, and increasing subsidy standards [12][13]. - The central bank governor said that in 2026, the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [14]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Funds Rate Trends - From January 19 to 23, 2026, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net injection of 22.95 billion yuan. It is expected that 138.1 billion yuan of base money will be withdrawn from circulation from January 26 to 30 [16]. - Towards the end of January, the money market tightened marginally, and DR001 briefly exceeded the 1.3% - 1.4% operating range. As of January 23, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by 9.20BP, 2.23BP, 7.84BP, and 5.05BP respectively compared with January 16 [18]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, last week, the CD issuance scale was 589.49 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 116.9 billion yuan. The CD issuance scale of city commercial banks was the largest, with a net financing of 72.72 billion yuan. The CD issuance interest rates of most institutions decreased compared with the previous week [24][28][30]. - In the secondary market, last week, CD interest rates generally declined under the background of loose liquidity. The 1Y - 3M spread of AAA - rated CDs was at the 47.07% quantile level [34]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - In early 2026, the issuance rhythm of national bonds accelerated compared with the same period in 2025, and the net financing scale of national bonds over 10 years was also higher than that from 2023 - 2025. The supply rhythm of central finance accelerated, mainly due to the issuance of discount national bonds and coupon - bearing national bonds in 2026 and the re - issuance of some coupon - bearing national bonds in 2025 [36]. - Last week, the supply scale of interest - rate bonds increased significantly. The net financing of national bonds, local bonds, and policy - bank bonds was 344.3 billion yuan, 222.37 billion yuan, and 187.5 billion yuan respectively. As of January 23, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2026 reached 250 billion yuan, mainly in long - term and ultra - long - term bonds [43][45]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - Large - scale banks continued to prefer national bonds within 10 years, which supported medium - and short - term interest rates. The central bank's continuous large - scale MLF injection maintained abundant liquidity, and the term spread was compressed. The yields of national bonds and policy - bank bonds of various maturities changed to different degrees, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year policy - bank bonds decreased slightly [48]. - The average daily turnover rates of the 10 - year national bond active bond (250016) and the 10 - year policy - bank bond active bond (250215) decreased. The average spread between the 10 - year national bond active bond (250016) and the secondary - active bond (250022) increased by 0.03BP, indicating that the liquidity premium is tilting towards 250022 [50][52]. - The 10 - 1 - year and 30 - 1 - year national bond term spreads narrowed, and the long - term and ultra - long - term local - national bond spreads also narrowed [56][57]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - In December 2025, the institutional leverage ratio increased seasonally. Banks and other institutions increased their leverage, while securities firms reduced their leverage. The 20 - day moving average of the single - day trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.87 trillion yuan last week, showing a "first rising, then falling" trend [63][65]. - In the cash - bond market, large - scale banks still preferred to increase their holdings of 5 - 10 - year national bonds, but the net purchase scale decreased significantly. Small - and medium - sized banks continued to reduce their holdings of 5 - 10 - year national bonds and policy - bank bonds. Insurance companies significantly increased their holdings of national bonds and local bonds over 10 years, and funds increased their holdings of 5 - 10 - year policy - bank bonds and national bonds over 10 years [63][72]. - The replenishment willingness of small - and medium - sized banks, securities firms, funds, and other institutions was relatively weak last week. The current replenishment costs of major trading desks vary significantly [75]. - Considering capital occupation and tax costs, commercial banks and insurance companies can obtain relatively higher returns by investing in local bonds due to the relatively high spread between local bonds and national bonds [84]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar, wire rod, and cathode copper futures, the cement price index, and the South China Glass Index decreased compared with the previous week. The CCFI index decreased slightly, while the BDI index increased by 12.44%. The wholesale prices of pork and vegetables increased, and the settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased slightly. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.99 [88][89]. 3.6 Future Outlook - The "stabilizer" effect of banks continues to work, and bonds within 10 years are likely to be more stable. Although the ultra - long - term interest rate theoretically has more room, its stability is weaker than that of bonds within 10 years [90]. - Abundant liquidity is expected to support the bond market to stabilize. In the short term, the bond market is mainly in a recovery phase, with a low possibility of a trend - like decline. It is recommended to gradually take profits from band trading and choose national bonds within 10 years, especially the 10 - year national bond active bond (250016) [91].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "Buy" rating for several companies within the pharmaceutical sector, including 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 百济神州-U (BeiGene), and others [22]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry has seen a significant increase in BD (business development) activities, with Chinese pharmaceutical companies securing upfront payments exceeding $7.03 billion in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of over 226.8% [15][20]. - The industry has a total market capitalization of approximately 544.85 billion yuan, with a TTM (trailing twelve months) P/E ratio of 38.5, significantly higher than the 14.1 P/E ratio of the CSI 300 index [3][6]. - The best-performing sub-sectors this week include offline pharmacies, hospitals, and medical R&D outsourcing, with year-to-date increases of 17.2%, 14.8%, and 10.7%, respectively [6][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical index decreased by 0.39% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points. Year-to-date, the pharmaceutical sector has risen by 6.66%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 5.10 percentage points [6][24]. - The current valuation level (P/E-TTM) for the pharmaceutical industry stands at 30.31 times, with a premium of 65.36% over the entire A-share market [6][26]. Business Development Trends - In 2025, the domestic dual-antibody BD projects achieved upfront payments of $3.5 billion, a staggering increase of 414.7%, accounting for 49.8% of all BD upfront payments for the year [16]. - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) sector has also seen substantial growth, with upfront payments reaching $1.63 billion, a 676.2% increase year-on-year [17]. - The GLP-1RA (Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists) segment reported upfront payments of $470 million, reflecting a 109.8% increase compared to 2024 [18]. Notable Collaborations - The report highlights significant collaborations, such as 舶望制药 (Bohua Pharmaceutical) partnering with Novartis to explore the potential of siRNA in hypertension treatment, securing an upfront payment of $160 million [19]. - The MNC (Multinational Corporation) procurement model remains dominant, with local companies securing $4.71 billion in upfront payments from MNCs, representing 67.0% of total BD upfront payments [20]. Recommended Companies - The report suggests a robust investment strategy focusing on companies like 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 百济神州-U (BeiGene), and others, which are expected to benefit from innovation and international expansion [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on smart vehicles, new energy vehicles, commercial vehicles, and humanoid robots, indicating significant growth potential in these sectors [1][2]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is entering a transformative phase driven by policies that support the development of smart vehicles and the expansion of new energy vehicles. The report highlights the acceleration of intelligent driving technology and the increasing market penetration of new energy vehicles [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Smart Vehicles - The report emphasizes that the intelligent vehicle sector is experiencing rapid advancements due to policy support, with L3 vehicle standards expected to be implemented by 2026. The adoption of advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS) is increasing, with new vehicle models showing significant growth in features like highway and urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) [4][68]. - The financing landscape for autonomous driving is booming, with 35 companies in the sector raising over 582 billion yuan in 2025, nearly three times the amount raised in 2023 [4][80]. New Energy Vehicles - The continuation of vehicle replacement policies is expected to bolster sales, with wholesale volumes of new energy passenger vehicles projected to reach 18.16 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 18% [4][34]. - Exports of new energy vehicles have shown remarkable growth, with a 102.5% year-on-year increase in 2025, indicating strong demand in international markets [4][34]. Commercial Vehicles - The heavy truck sector is supported by ongoing vehicle replacement policies, with sales expected to reach 1.196 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [4][34]. - The report notes that the heavy truck market is benefiting from both domestic and international demand, with significant growth anticipated due to the continued penetration of new energy heavy trucks [4][34]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is poised for rapid growth, with applications in automotive manufacturing expected to enhance production efficiency. The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate of approximately 85% in humanoid robot shipments from 2024 to 2035 [4][34]. - The cost of humanoid robots is expected to decrease significantly, with projections indicating that the price of a standard humanoid robot could drop from $80,000-$90,000 to $15,000-$20,000 by 2030 [4][34]. Policy Environment - The report highlights a favorable policy environment that is increasingly supportive of the automotive industry's transition towards smart and electric vehicles. Key policies include the approval of L3 autonomous vehicle models and the establishment of unified standards for vehicle replacement subsidies [4][53]. Market Trends - The automotive market is witnessing a shift towards intelligent and electric vehicles, with consumer preferences evolving towards higher levels of automation and connectivity in vehicles. The report indicates that the penetration rate of intelligent driving features is expected to increase significantly in the coming years [4][68]. Capital Market Activity - The report notes a surge in investment activity within the autonomous driving sector, indicating a strong belief in the future growth of this industry. The capital market's enthusiasm is reflected in the substantial funding raised by various companies, signaling a robust outlook for the sector [4][80].

Domestic Economic Outlook - The IMF has raised China's GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 0.2% and 0.3% to 5% and 4.5% respectively, citing improved external trade conditions and robust growth in emerging industries like AI[8] - The Chinese government has committed to increasing fiscal spending in 2026, with a focus on policies to boost domestic demand through lower credit costs and support for private investment[10] - In 2025, China's industrial output increased by 5.9%, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.4%, indicating a stable industrial economy[12] International Economic Developments - Japan's 40-year bond yield has surpassed 4% for the first time, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability following the announcement of expansionary fiscal policies[16] - The U.S. housing market faced a significant downturn, with December's existing home sales index dropping 9.3%, marking the largest decline since the pandemic began[20] - Tensions between the U.S. and Europe escalated over tariffs related to Greenland, impacting market stability and leading to a surge in gold and silver prices[18] Commodity Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.15% week-on-week, while iron ore and copper prices decreased by 3.67% and 2.17% respectively[24] - In emerging industries, prices for lithium iron phosphate rose by 11.52%, while prices for hexafluorophosphate lithium decreased by 3.97%[24]

Core Insights - The report highlights a bullish outlook for the metals sector, driven by macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a recovering global economy, particularly in China [3][44] - Key investment themes for 2026 include expanding demand for precious metals like gold and silver, improving fundamentals for aluminum and copper, strategic opportunities in rare earths, and supply-side disruptions due to overcapacity in certain sectors [3][4] Group 1: Precious Metals - The report suggests a long-term bullish view on gold, with expectations of price increases driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, which enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][44] - Silver is also highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to its high price ratio to gold, indicating potential for significant price appreciation [3] - Specific companies to watch include Shandong Gold (600547.SH) and Zijin Mining (601899.SH), which are expected to benefit from increased production and operational efficiencies [4] Group 2: Industrial Metals - The report notes that aluminum and copper are set to see improved profitability due to lower production costs and increased demand, particularly in the context of infrastructure investments [3][4] - Companies such as Zhongfu Industrial (600595.SH) and Zijin Mining (601899.SH) are identified as having strong positions in the copper market, with expected profit growth [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain dynamics, particularly in copper, where inventory levels are shifting significantly [18][58] Group 3: Rare Earths and Strategic Metals - The report identifies rare earth elements as a critical area for investment, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions between the US and China, which may create opportunities for companies involved in rare earth mining and processing [3][4] - Companies like Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) and China Rare Earth (000831.SZ) are highlighted for their potential to benefit from price increases in rare earth materials [4] Group 4: Energy Metals - The report discusses the rebound in lithium and nickel prices, driven by strong demand from the battery sector, with specific mention of companies like Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) [4][27] - The expected growth in energy storage solutions is also noted as a significant driver for demand in these metals [4] Group 5: Overall Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is noted to have outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 96.46% in 2025 compared to a 21.65% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [33][35] - The report indicates that while the sector has seen significant gains, valuations are currently at historical averages, suggesting potential for further growth [35]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the medical equipment industry, with an expected year-on-year growth of 25% for the year 2025 [22]. Core Insights - The medical equipment industry is experiencing a slight decline in December data year-on-year, attributed to a high base effect from the previous year. However, there is a significant month-on-month increase of 38% due to accelerated budget spending at year-end [3]. - The report highlights that the current round of medical equipment upgrades is nearing its end, with expectations for a new round of equipment replacement in 2025, which is projected to be no less than the previous round [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies, including the issuance of long-term special bonds to support large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer replacement programs [15]. Summary by Relevant Sections Medical Imaging - December figures for medical imaging reached 9.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 11%, while the forecast for 2025 is 69.3 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 37% [5]. Life Information and Support - In December, life information and support equipment generated 2.6 billion yuan, an increase of 8%, with a projected total of 16.7 billion yuan for 2025, marking a 28% growth [5]. Endoscopes - Soft endoscopes reported 1.1 billion yuan in December, down 9%, while hard endoscopes reached 1.2 billion yuan, down 7%. The 2025 projections for both are 7.8 billion yuan for soft endoscopes (+12%) and 7.8 billion yuan for hard endoscopes (+3%) [5]. Radiation Therapy - December figures for radiation therapy stood at 1.6 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1%, with a forecast of 9.6 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 32% [48]. Surgical Robots - Surgical robots saw a significant decline in December, with figures at 600 million yuan, down 24%, but are expected to reach 5.2 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a robust growth of 54% [51]. Key Companies - Major companies in the sector include Mindray, which reported 1.9 billion yuan in December (+20%) and is projected to reach 11.2 billion yuan in 2025 (+35%), and United Imaging, with December figures of 2.2 billion yuan (0% change) and a forecast of 12.6 billion yuan (+37%) for 2025 [55][58].

Core Insights - The automotive industry is entering a critical phase of globalization, with significant advancements in smart technology and robotics expected to drive growth [1][4] - The report highlights the acceleration of smart vehicle development due to favorable policies, technological convergence, and increased consumer demand for intelligent features [4][68] Smart Vehicles - Policy support is enhancing the development of smart driving technologies, with L3 vehicle standards expected to be implemented by 2026, facilitating the growth of the autonomous driving industry [4][53] - The adoption of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) is increasing, with new vehicle models showing a significant rise in the installation rates of highway NOA and urban NOA, reaching 30.20% and 34.82% respectively in early 2025 [4][79] - The capital market is witnessing explosive growth in autonomous driving financing, with 35 companies raising over 582 billion yuan in 2025, nearly three times the amount raised in 2023 [4][80] New Energy Vehicles - The continuation of vehicle replacement policies is expected to support sales, with wholesale volumes of new energy passenger vehicles projected to reach 18.16 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 18% [4] - Exports of new energy vehicles showed robust growth, with 2.238 million units exported from January to November 2025, marking a 102.5% increase year-on-year [4] Commercial Vehicles - Heavy truck sales are supported by ongoing replacement policies and expected to reach 1.196 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [4] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is poised for rapid growth, with applications in automotive manufacturing expected to enhance production efficiency [4] - The cost of humanoid robots is projected to decrease significantly, from approximately $80,000-$90,000 to $15,000-$20,000 by 2030, driven by advancements in AI and production scale [4] Policy Environment - The policy landscape is becoming increasingly favorable for the automotive industry, with initiatives aimed at promoting smart and connected vehicles, including the approval of L3 autonomous driving models [4][53] Supply Side Dynamics - Automakers are accelerating the rollout of intelligent driving features, transitioning from high-end options to standard offerings across various price segments, thereby meeting consumer preferences for smart technology [4][68][73]