1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The restart of treasury bond trading is likely to enrich the liquidity injection structure rather than being a signal of further monetary easing. It helps enhance market confidence and avoid exacerbating the structural imbalance in the bond market demand. There is a possibility of the central bank buying long - term bonds for risk - prevention purposes, and the total scale of treasury bond purchases is expected to be lower than the same period last year [3]. - Without the boost of increased expectations of interest rate cuts, the market from November to December may show a downward trend with fluctuations. Interest rate decline space will be anchored at the lows after the interest rate cut in the first half of the year, with the yield floors of 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds (old bonds) around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On October 27, 2025, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced the restart of treasury bond trading in the open market [6]. - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. Sub - indices such as production and new orders also showed a downward trend [7]. - On October 30, 2025, leaders of China and the United States held a meeting, reaching a consensus on resolving important economic and trade issues and promoting cooperation in various fields [11]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Rate Movements - From October 27 to 31, 2025, the central bank injected 206.8 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 86.72 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 120.08 billion yuan. It is expected that 206.8 billion yuan of base currency will mature and be withdrawn from November 3 to 7 [13]. - The money market tightened due to the end - of - month effect, and the fund stratification phenomenon intensified. Policy rates and various short - term fund rates showed certain changes [16]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Movements and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs last week was 734.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 227.42 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing scale was 170.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 173.84 billion yuan. By the 44th week of 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of inter - bank CDs for the year had reached 28.44 trillion yuan [20]. - The issuance rates of inter - bank CDs of various banks decreased compared with the previous week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank CDs of all tenors showed a downward trend [23][26]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - In the last week of October, the supply of treasury bonds entered a window period. The total issuance scale of interest - rate bonds was 412.682 billion yuan, with a net financing of 324.196 billion yuan. From January to October, the net financing rhythm of local government bonds was generally faster than that of treasury bonds. As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds was about 5.40 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 6.15 trillion yuan [29][37]. - The issuance scale of special refinancing bonds as of last week was 2.05 trillion yuan, mainly long - term and ultra - long - term bonds. Regions with relatively large issuance scales include Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Henan [41]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - The restart of treasury bond trading triggered bullish sentiment in the market, with interest rates generally showing a downward trend. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds of various tenors changed, and the term spreads of 10Y - 1Y treasury bonds and 10Y - 1Y policy - bank bonds also changed. The implied tax rate of 10 - year policy - bank bonds was slightly compressed [43]. - The daily average turnover rates of the 10 - year treasury bond and 10 - year policy - bank bond active bonds decreased. The average spread between the 10 - year treasury bond active bond and the secondary active bond was 5.4BP, and the spread between the 10 - year policy - bank bond active bond and the secondary active bond slightly widened [47][49]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The scale of leveraged trading decreased last week, maintaining an average level of around 7 trillion yuan on the other four days except for the impact of the month - end factor on Friday. The buying intensity of state - owned banks in the cash bond market weakened, and rural commercial banks accelerated their profit - taking and selling. Securities firms, funds, and insurance companies were the main bond buyers [56][66][69]. - In September 2025, the overall leverage ratio of institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.68%, with the leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities firms, and other institutions being about 109.85%, 192.23%, and 133.25% respectively [57]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures increased by 0.80% week - on - week, wire rod futures decreased by 3.14%, cathode copper futures increased by 0.54%, the cement price index increased by 1.69%, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased by 0.82%. The CCFI index increased by 2.89%, and the BDI index decreased by 1.26%. Food prices such as pork and vegetables increased, while crude oil prices decreased. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.09 [77]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The restart of treasury bond trading is mainly to enrich the liquidity injection structure. If there is no increase in expectations of interest rate cuts, the market from November to December may decline with fluctuations. Interest rate decline space will be limited, and the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds (old bonds) are expected to be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [81][83]. - It is recommended to keep the portfolio duration in a moderately long range. In terms of allocation, high - quality coupon - bearing assets are preferred, and opportunities in 2 - year AA -/AA - rated credit bonds and 10 - year local bonds can be explored. In terms of trading, attention can be paid to the trading opportunities of medium - duration bonds such as secondary - tier capital bonds that have fallen significantly [84].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to perform within a range of -10% to 10% relative to the market index over the next six months [12][13]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, but cost reduction and structural optimization are expected to drive long-term resilience [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 60.88 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.13%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.71 billion yuan, an increase of 32.93% [7]. - The company aims to reduce breeding costs to below 14 yuan per kilogram by the end of the year, with a target of 13 yuan per kilogram [7]. - The slaughtering segment is showing steady growth, contributing stable profits, with a national expansion strategy in place [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 9,092 million yuan in 2024, 8,687 million yuan in 2025 (a decrease of 4.46%), 9,543 million yuan in 2026 (an increase of 9.86%), and 12,753 million yuan in 2027 (an increase of 33.64%) [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 73 million yuan in 2024, 77 million yuan in 2025, 318 million yuan in 2026, and 551 million yuan in 2027, reflecting significant growth rates [2][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.12 yuan in 2024, 0.10 yuan in 2025, 0.40 yuan in 2026, and 0.68 yuan in 2027 [2][9]. Business Segments - The slaughtering and meat processing business is projected to see revenue growth of 0% in 2025, 5% in 2026, and 35% in 2027, with a price decrease of 5% in 2025 followed by a 5% increase in 2026 [8][9]. - The livestock breeding segment is expected to maintain stable development, with revenue projected to be 234.46 million yuan in 2024, increasing gradually to 271.42 million yuan by 2027 [9]. - Other business segments are also expected to show stable growth, with revenue increasing from 173.06 million yuan in 2024 to 230.34 million yuan in 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated continuous improvement in profitability, with a third-quarter dividend declared [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.1 billion yuan, up 29.4% year-on-year [7]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 54.4%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 36.3%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company is focusing on product development and expanding its presence in the screw rod sector, diversifying raw materials and applications [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 680.28 million yuan, 856.32 million yuan, 1,122.33 million yuan, and 1,507.60 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 16.63%, 25.88%, 31.06%, and 34.33% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 211.61 million yuan, 276.42 million yuan, 380.63 million yuan, and 490.83 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 14.76%, 30.63%, 37.70%, and 28.95% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.55 yuan, 2.03 yuan, 2.79 yuan, and 3.60 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E, respectively [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 15.72% in 2024A to 21.21% in 2027E [2]. Dividend Policy - The company has announced a cash dividend of 2.50 yuan per 10 shares for the third quarter of 2025, with a cumulative dividend payout ratio of 35.6% for the year [7].

Domestic Developments - The People's Bank of China maintained the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, indicating room for monetary policy easing as demand for stable growth rises in Q4[6] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the continuous optimization of the business environment for foreign enterprises, with actual foreign investment reaching $708.73 billion by mid-2025, surpassing the target six months early[9] - The total scale of foreign-related receipts and payments reached $1.16 trillion in the first three quarters, a record high for the same period, reflecting a resilient foreign exchange market[10] International Developments - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, with potential impacts on Q4 economic growth estimated at a reduction of 0.1% to 0.2% per week[15] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, announced an economic stimulus package potentially exceeding ¥13.9 trillion to address inflation and government debt pressures[17] - International gold prices saw a significant drop, with London gold falling over 6% to below $4,100 per ounce, driven by profit-taking and easing geopolitical risks[18] Commodity Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.17% week-on-week, while iron ore prices fell by 1.34%[22] - The price of thermal coal increased by 4.58% week-on-week, indicating mixed trends in commodity prices[26] - Real estate sales in major cities increased by 2.42% week-on-week, but the average daily retail sales of passenger cars fell by 3% year-on-year[37]

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has entered a global strategic partnership with Takeda to co-develop three therapies, including IBI363 and IBI343, with a total potential deal value of up to $11.4 billion [5] - IBI363 is a next-generation immune checkpoint inhibitor that has shown promising results in clinical trials for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) [5] - IBI343 targets CLDN18.2 and is being developed for pancreatic and gastric cancers, with ongoing clinical trials showing encouraging results [5] - The company aims to become a leading global biopharmaceutical enterprise, leveraging its expertise in IO and ADC fields alongside Takeda's commercialization capabilities [5] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 114.4 billion, 149.7 billion, and 201.1 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 21.4%, 30.9%, and 34.3% [6][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 864.68 million, 1,643.79 million, and 2,749.81 million CNY for the same years, reflecting significant growth [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.06 CNY in 2024 to 1.60 CNY by 2027 [7] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the oncology pipeline is projected to grow from 80.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 133.1 billion CNY in 2027, with a stable gross margin of around 85% [9] - Non-oncology pipeline revenues are expected to increase significantly, from 2 billion CNY in 2024 to 60 billion CNY in 2027, with a gross margin of 78% [9] - Licensing income is forecasted to stabilize at around 7 billion CNY annually from 2025 to 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential increase in stock price relative to the market index over the next six months [12][13]. Core Insights - The company is advancing its research pipeline into the 2.0 era, with key products expected to catalyze growth soon [7]. - CS2009 has shown good safety and tolerability in Phase I clinical trials, with promising anti-tumor activity and a high disease control rate (DCR) [7]. - The company has initiated Phase II dose expansion studies for CS2009 in specific tumor types, aiming to optimize dosing regimens and gather more data for regulatory submissions [7]. - CS5001 is under investigation for both monotherapy and combination therapy in hematological and solid tumors, with ongoing global multi-center clinical trials [7]. - Strategic collaborations are expanding the international reach of the company's products, particularly for Shugli monoclonal antibody, which is expected to cover multiple indications [7]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 2.2 billion, RMB 5.1 billion, and RMB 8.6 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]. - The projected revenue breakdown includes contributions from various products, with significant growth anticipated for Shugli monoclonal antibody starting in 2026 [8][9]. - The company expects to achieve a positive net profit of RMB 165.95 million by 2027, following substantial losses in the preceding years [2][10]. Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The report outlines a projected revenue decline of 12.21% in 2024, followed by a significant recovery with growth rates of 131.82% and 68.63% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to turn positive by 2027, indicating a turnaround in profitability [2][9]. - The net asset return rate (ROE) is projected to improve significantly, reaching 304.32% by 2027 after a period of negative returns [2][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guobang Pharmaceutical (605507) with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company's profit growth rate has significantly improved in the third quarter, indicating a recovery in profitability. Despite a slight decline in revenue, the net profit for Q3 increased by 23.17% year-on-year, showcasing enhanced profitability driven by improved gross margins and effective cost control [7]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the animal health raw materials business, which is entering a favorable cycle. The core product, Florfenicol, has seen a recovery in profitability due to industry capacity reduction, with shipments exceeding 2,000 tons in the first half of the year [7]. - The company's global market presence and high-value product strategy are enhancing its competitive edge, with products sold in 117 countries and regions, and partnerships established with over 5,000 clients and suppliers [7]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.17%, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 15.78% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.44 billion yuan, down 5.39% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 23.17% [7]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates an EPS of 1.88 yuan, 2.23 yuan, and 2.52 yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The bond ETF market has experienced the largest redemption wave this year, with all bond - related ETFs showing net outflows. The net outflows of treasury - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs reached new highs this week. Only corporate bond ETFs and urban investment bond ETFs had small net inflows. Different types of bond ETFs presented various trends in share and net value changes [4][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Various Bond ETF Fund Inflow Situations - Bond - related ETFs had net outflows across the board. Last week, the net inflows of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 49.60 billion yuan, - 74.56 billion yuan, and - 9.41 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of - 133.57 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. As of October 17, 2025, the bond ETF fund scale was 6778.33 billion yuan, down 2.00% from the previous week's close, up 277.05% from the beginning of the year, and accounting for 12.27% of the total market ETF scale, a 43 - basis - point decrease from the previous weekend [4][7]. - Treasury - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs had record - high weekly net outflows. Only corporate bond ETFs (+1.09 billion yuan) and urban investment bond ETFs (+1.89 billion yuan) had small net inflows last week, while the net inflows of other types of bond ETFs were negative. The net outflows of sci - tech bond ETFs and treasury - bond ETFs were relatively large, at - 49.52 billion yuan and - 48.59 billion yuan respectively, both reaching new highs in weekly net outflows since the beginning of 2024 [7]. 3.2 Various Bond ETF Share Trends - The shares of treasury - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs had significant outflows. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs changed by - 45.47 million shares, - 0.93 million shares, no change, - 55.97 million shares, and - 71.20 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025, with a total change of - 173.57 million shares for bond - related ETFs [20]. 3.3 Main Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - Among the representative products, only the urban investment bond ETF had positive share growth. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the shares of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial - bond ETF, 5 - year local - bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF changed by - 5.33 million shares, - 0.46 million shares, no change, 18.60 million shares, and - 51.70 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [24]. - The net values continued to rise, except for the convertible - bond ETF. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the net values of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial - bond ETF, 5 - year local - bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF changed by 1.47%, 0.37%, 0.16%, 0.10%, and - 2.26% respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [28]. 3.4 Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - The shares had an overall outflow. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the shares of 8 existing credit - bond ETFs changed by no change, - 2.00 million shares, - 1.80 million shares, 0.01 million shares, no change, 0.10 million shares, - 2.90 million shares, and - 1.80 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [31]. - The net values continued the upward trend. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the net values of 8 credit - bond ETFs changed by 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.13%, 0.16%, and 0.13% respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [34]. 3.5 Sci - Tech Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - The shares generally had outflows. Among the 24 existing sci - tech bond ETFs, the top three in terms of share size were Sci - Tech Bond ETF Harvest, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Penghua, and Sci - Tech Bond ETF China Merchants. The top three products in terms of share net inflow last week were Sci - Tech Bond ETF E Fund, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Penghua, and Sci - Tech Bond ETF Taikang, with changes of 0.30 million shares, 0.30 million shares, and 0.04 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [37]. - The net values generally increased. The top three sci - tech bond ETFs in terms of net - value increase last week were Sci - Tech Bond ETF Dacheng, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Harvest, and Sci - Tech Bond ETF Huaxia, with increases of 0.16%, 0.15%, and 0.14% respectively [38]. 3.6 Single Bond ETF Market Performance - The net values of long - term interest - rate bond ETFs rebounded, and only the net values of convertible - bond ETFs declined. Last week, the net - value increases of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF and 30 - year treasury - bond ETF Boshi led, while only the net values of convertible - bond ETF and Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible - Bond ETF adjusted downward, expected to be affected by the decline of the equity market in the second half of the week [40]. - In terms of premium/discount rates, the benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs had significantly higher discounts than other products. Credit - Bond ETF Boshi, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Invesco, and Corporate Bond ETF E Fund had the highest discount rates [40]. - In terms of scale changes, urban investment bond ETFs and corporate bond ETFs had positive net inflows, while short - term financing ETFs, Treasury - Bond ETF Dongcai, and 30 - year Treasury - Bond ETF Boshi had the largest net outflows last week [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry as of October 20, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a mixed performance with a decline in retail sales for passenger vehicles in October, while cumulative sales for the year show growth. The report highlights significant developments in the smart vehicle sector, including international expansion and technological advancements [1][6][55]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - From October 1 to 12, 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 686,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8% but a month-on-month increase of 12%. Cumulatively, 17.694 million units have been sold this year, reflecting an 8% increase year-on-year [6][55]. New Energy Vehicles - During the same period, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles totaled 367,000 units, down 1% year-on-year but up 1% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 53.5%. Cumulative sales for the year reached 9.236 million units, marking a 23% year-on-year increase [6][55]. Smart Vehicles - The report notes that companies are advancing in technology and expanding into international markets. For instance, the Xiaopeng MONA series has been launched in the Middle East and Africa, making it the first Chinese brand to introduce pure electric models in Egypt and Africa. Tesla has also upgraded its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system to enhance traffic efficiency [6][55][57]. Heavy Trucks - The report mentions that China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation announced a cumulative export of 111,000 heavy trucks this year, representing a 24.5% year-on-year increase. In September, exports surpassed 15,000 units for the first time, setting a new monthly record for the industry [6][55]. Robotics - The robotics sector is highlighted with the company UBTECH winning a contract worth 126 million yuan for humanoid robots, with orders for the Walker series exceeding 630 million yuan for the year [6][55]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies that are accelerating their smart technology and international expansion in the passenger vehicle sector. It also recommends monitoring component manufacturers with advantages in market, technology, and customer relations in the smart vehicle space [6][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since October, the bond market has shown a divergence in the term structure. The ultra - long - term interest rate varieties had a lagged increase in the first week of October but a concentrated catch - up in the second week, with the market style shifting from "spreading yield spread" to "compressing yield spread" [2][6]. - The catch - up of ultra - long bonds has pushed the spread between new and old bonds to compress, and the liquidity premium may determine the subsequent compression space. The spread between new and old bonds mainly depends on the "tax valuation anchor" and "liquidity premium", and the latter may play a more important role in the future [2][11][12]. - The deep - seated reason for the strong catch - up of ultra - long bonds last week is that the yield spread between ultra - long interest rates and other term interest rates has shown cost - effectiveness, attracting both allocation and trading desks [2][15]. - The bond market may see a downward space in the fourth quarter, but the rhythm may vary at different time points. In late October, it may enter a volatile period, and from November to December, it will be determined by the game between macro - fundamentals and policy expectations, with two scenarios presented [2][3][20]. - In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to position the portfolio duration in the medium - to - long range, select high - quality coupon assets as the bottom position, and pay attention to trading opportunities in medium - duration varieties such as secondary perpetual bonds [3][103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 How to View the Sustainability of the 30 - year Treasury Bond Catch - up Market - **Market Performance in October**: In the first week of October, the 10 - year Treasury bond outperformed the 30 - year Treasury bond in both the spot and futures markets. In the second week, the ultra - long - end assets took over, with the 30 - year Treasury bond yield accelerating downward and the catch - up momentum of ultra - long bonds being released [2][6]. - **New and Old Bond Spread**: The catch - up of ultra - long bonds drove the spread between new and old 30 - year special Treasury bonds (2500002 and 2500006) to compress. As of October 17, the spread had narrowed by 3.05BP. The subsequent spread trend may depend more on the liquidity premium [11][12]. - **Reason for Catch - up**: The yield spread between 30 - year and other - term Treasury bonds has reached a high level, attracting both allocation and trading desks. The trading desks, mainly represented by brokers and funds, played a leading role in the catch - up market [15][17]. - **Market Outlook**: The bond market may have a downward space in the fourth quarter. In late October, it may enter a volatile period due to important events. From November to December, two scenarios are presented based on the development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [2][3][20]. 3.2 Important Matters - **Central Bank's Reverse Repurchase**: In October, the central bank carried out 6000 billion yuan of 6 - month term buy - out reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 4000 billion yuan for 3 - month and 6 - month term buy - out reverse repurchases [27]. - **CPI and PPI Data**: In September, CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month; PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points, and was flat month - on - month [29]. - **Credit Data**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan [32]. - **Sino - US Tariff Tension**: On October 14, the US Treasury Secretary said that the 100% tariff on China "may not happen" and the communication channels between the two countries have reopened [33]. 3.3 Money Market - **Open Market Operations and Fund Rates**: From October 13 to 17, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operations had a net injection of - 3479 billion yuan. The bank - to - bank liquidity remained loose, and the policy rate of 7 - day open - market reverse repurchase was 1.40%. As of October 17, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed compared with October 11, and the interest rate centers also changed slightly [37][41]. - **Certificate of Deposit Rates and Repurchase Transactions**: In the primary market, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) last week was 2246.60 billion yuan, and the annual issuance scale as of the 42nd week of 2025 had reached 26.88 trillion yuan. The issuance interest rates of NCDs decreased compared with the previous week. In the secondary market, the yields of NCDs of all terms showed an upward trend [43][49][52]. 3.4 Bond Market - **Primary Market**: In the second week of October, the net supply of interest - rate bonds weakened, with a net financing of 218.71 billion yuan. The issuance of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds in 2025 ended last week. As of October 17, the cumulative net financing of national bonds in 2025 was about 5.40 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 6.15 trillion yuan. The issuance scale of special refinancing bonds as of last week was 2.01 trillion yuan [55][56][63]. - **Secondary Market**: Sino - US economic and trade games led to a weakening of the equity market, and interest rates showed a downward trend, with the long - end and ultra - long - end performing better. The 10 - 1 - year term spread further compressed. The average daily turnover rates of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond (250011) and the 10 - year CDB bond active bond (250215) increased, and the liquidity premium between the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond and the secondary - active bond decreased to 5.20BP [55][66][70]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Leveraged Trading**: Last week, the leveraged trading scale returned to a high level with the relatively loose capital, with an average of about 8.04 trillion yuan. The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 6.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.15 trillion yuan compared with the previous week [86]. - **Cash Bond Market Transactions**: State - owned banks increased their holdings of bonds, mainly focusing on Treasury bonds within 5 years and policy - financial bonds between 5 - 10 years. Rural commercial banks reduced their buying and showed a net - selling profit - taking operation. Brokers and funds, as important trading desks, increased their holdings of Treasury bonds of all terms and 5 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds. Insurance companies increased their holdings of local bonds over 10 years [78][90]. 3.6 High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Futures and Commodity Prices**: Last week, the settlement prices of rebar futures decreased by 1.69% week - on - week, wire rod futures increased by 6.55%, cathode copper futures decreased by 2.09%, the cement price index decreased by 0.22%, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased by 9.28%. The CCFI index decreased by 4.11%, and the BDI index increased by 5.68% [98]. - **Food and Crude Oil Prices**: The wholesale price of pork decreased by 4.35% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 3.89%. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 2.66% and 2.44% respectively [98]. - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB last week was 7.09 [101]. 3.7 Market Outlook - **Market Trend**: The bond market may see a downward space in the fourth quarter, but the rhythm may vary at different time points. In late October, it may enter a volatile period, and from November to December, it will be determined by the game between macro - fundamentals and policy expectations, with two scenarios presented [2][3][20]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to position the portfolio duration in the medium - to - long range, select high - quality coupon assets as the bottom position, and pay attention to trading opportunities in medium - duration varieties such as secondary perpetual bonds [3][103].