Core Viewpoints - The white liquor industry is currently under pressure, with high-end and mid-range products affected by economic and policy influences, leading to a decline in prices from approximately 2200 yuan to around 1850 yuan since the Spring Festival of 2025 [4][29] - The beer industry is expected to benefit from a low base effect in 2025, with a recovery in overall demand as the summer approaches, supported by favorable weather conditions and government consumption incentives [4][42] - The dairy industry is in a transitional phase, with prices expected to stabilize as demand improves and production levels off, leading to enhanced profitability for upstream and downstream companies [4][58] - The seasoning industry is experiencing steady demand, with a focus on high-end products and a resilient consumer base, despite short-term pressures from the restaurant sector [4][76] White Liquor - The high-end liquor segment remains a long-term investment opportunity, with leading brands maintaining market share despite current pressures [4][34] - The mid-range liquor market is facing intensified competition and declining sales, particularly in the business dining sector [4][36] - The overall valuation of leading white liquor companies is currently at historical lows, with expected valuations between 13-19 times for 2025 [4][4] Beer - The beer market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in production and sales during the summer months, particularly benefiting national brands [4][42] - The industry is moving towards a high-end product strategy, with significant growth in premium beer segments [4][47] - The overall market structure is becoming more concentrated, with the top five companies controlling over 90% of the market [4][47] Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a rebound in profitability as raw milk prices stabilize and consumer demand for high-quality products increases [4][58] - The long-term growth potential for dairy products remains strong, driven by rising disposable incomes and changing consumer preferences [4][63] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards premium products, with a focus on high-end milk and cheese offerings [4][74] Seasoning Products - The seasoning industry is characterized by stable demand, with a focus on health and premiumization trends [4][76] - The restaurant sector's recovery is anticipated to positively impact seasoning sales, particularly in the B2B market [4][76] - Cost reductions in raw materials are expected to support profitability in the seasoning industry [4][76] Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is projected to maintain strong growth, driven by the increasing chain restaurant market and consumer demand for convenience [4][41] - Leading companies in the frozen food industry are expected to capture market share from smaller competitors due to their scale and distribution advantages [4][41] Food Additives - The food additives market is experiencing significant growth potential, with a trend towards natural and healthy ingredients [4][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market's performance was mainly influenced by changes in the capital market and the stock - bond "seesaw" effect. The central bank's actions to smooth out liquidity fluctuations sent a positive signal, while the strong performance of the equity market led to weaker long - term bond performance in the second half of the week. Short - duration assets with better defensive properties performed relatively well [3][96]. - The traditional factors such as fundamentals, liquidity, fiscal supply, and external shocks may not be the main constraints for the bond market to show "seasonal weakness" in the third quarter. Currently, the loose liquidity pattern and the central bank's decision to cancel the freeze on bond repurchase collateral may revitalize more bonds and provide a better foundation for restarting treasury bond trading. The bond market may maintain a volatile and relatively strong situation with "less downward resistance and more upward pressure" [3][98]. - With the implementation of the insurance's predetermined interest rate cut, the allocation motivation of insurance funds is expected to further increase, which may be an important force driving the bond market to rise. In terms of strategies, an investment portfolio of "short - credit + long - term local bonds" can be considered. For trading, the current 10 - year (250011) and 30 - year (2500002) treasury bond active bonds can be selected as the main trading targets [3][99]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On July 14, the central bank announced a 1400 - billion - yuan open - market outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan in July, and the balance of outright reverse repurchases after deducting maturities was 4.8 trillion yuan [6]. - On July 14, the central bank official mentioned that small and medium - sized banks' bond investment should maintain a reasonable "degree" [9]. - On July 16, it was announced that China's GDP growth rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, with the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries growing at 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% respectively [9]. - On July 19, the central bank drafted a decision to modify some regulations, including clarifying the legal status of Shanghai Clearing House, canceling the freeze on bond repurchase collateral, and modifying information disclosure regulations for financial bonds [12]. - From July 14 - 15, the Central Urban Work Conference was held, deploying seven key tasks for urban work [13]. - On July 19, it was reported that China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established to promote the construction of a 1.2 - trillion - yuan hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River [16]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations and Fund Rate Trends - From July 14 - 18, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of 130.11 billion yuan. From July 21 - 25, it is expected that 204.68 billion yuan of base currency will mature and be withdrawn [17][18]. - During the tax period last week, the central bank's actions led to a change in the capital market from tight to loose. As of July 11, compared with July 4, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by 3.88BP, 0.86BP, 2.81BP, and 0.58BP respectively [22]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situation - In the primary market, last week, CDs ended three consecutive weeks of net outflows, with a net financing of 144.37 billion yuan. The state - owned banks had the largest CD issuance scale, with a net financing of 64.84 billion yuan [24][28]. - Affected by the tax period, the average issuance rate of 1 - year CDs of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased by about 2.94BP compared with the previous week. In the secondary market, due to the stock - bond "seesaw" effect, short - duration assets were more defensive, and CD yields were generally declining [30][34]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - On July 14, the 4th and 5th ultra - long - term special treasury bonds were issued, with marginal interest rates of 1.92% and 1.9% respectively. The net financing rhythm of local government bonds was slower than that of treasury bonds. As of July 18, the cumulative net financing of various treasury bonds in 2025 was about 3.83 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 4.70 trillion yuan. The supply of local government bonds in the third quarter may be postponed [36][37]. - Last week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds decreased, while that of local bonds increased. The total net financing of interest - rate bonds was 200.565 billion yuan, with treasury bonds at 58.15 billion yuan, local bonds at 207.795 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds at - 65.38 billion yuan [45]. - As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 had reached 1.83 trillion yuan, mainly in long - and ultra - long - term maturities [47]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - The central bank's actions eased the tight capital market, but the stock - bond "seesaw" effect made short - rate bonds perform better, and the term spread widened. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 2.12BP, - 1.15BP, - 0.36BP, - 1.10BP, - 0.01BP, and 1.44BP respectively [50]. - The liquidity premium between the active and sub - active 10 - year treasury and policy - bank bonds narrowed. The long - and ultra - long - term treasury - local bond spread narrowed, mainly due to the increase in long - term treasury bond supply [58][66]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the leveraged trading scale decreased due to the tax period, with an average of about 7.24 trillion yuan. Rural commercial banks, funds, and insurance were the top three buyers in the interest - rate bond market. Rural commercial banks preferred defensive assets within 10 years, funds implemented a "dumbbell strategy", and insurance increased the allocation of long - term local bonds [67][81]. - In May 2025, the overall leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.46%, with commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions at about 110.53%, 183.89%, and 131.06% respectively [67]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar futures increased by 0.92% week - on - week, wire rod futures decreased by 4.29%, cathode copper futures decreased by 1.01%, the cement price index decreased by 2.10%, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 4.44%. The CCFI index decreased by 0.77%, and the BDI index increased by 42.66%. The pork wholesale price increased by 0.63%, and the vegetable wholesale price increased by 0.23%. Brent crude oil futures increased by 3.76%, and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.23%. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.15 [91][95].

Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is experiencing a turning point and structural market trends in the first half of 2025, with a focus on innovative drugs and their supply chain, AI healthcare, and brain-computer interfaces as structural opportunities [3][5] - The A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index has increased by 10.10% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.90 percentage points, ranking 4th in industry performance [3][22] - Among 480 listed pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, 348 have seen their stock prices rise, accounting for 72.5%, with 17 stocks doubling in value [3][40] Investment Logic - The innovative drug sector is accelerating its value reconstruction through business development (BD) overseas, research and commercialization progress, and policy support. In the first half of 2025, over 50 BD transactions for innovative drugs occurred, totaling over $48 billion [5] - Significant clinical data releases and commercialization progress for major drug candidates are expected to drive stock price increases [5] - Policy initiatives, such as the March 2025 government work report emphasizing the support for innovative drugs and medical devices, are providing strong backing for the industry's long-term development [5] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation has seen a short-term recovery but remains at a long-term low, with a PE ratio of 29 times as of mid-2025, slightly above the 50th percentile of the past four years [3][43] - Public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector have increased, with the proportion of public funds in A+H shares rising to 9.05% in Q1 2025, a 0.37 percentage point increase [3][58] Sub-industry Performance - The best-performing sub-industries in the pharmaceutical sector include chemical preparations and other biological products, with increases of 25.8% and 24.0%, respectively [3][22] - The pharmaceutical industry is witnessing a structural market trend, with innovative drugs leading the charge, while traditional sectors like vaccines and traditional Chinese medicine have seen slight declines [3][29] Recommended Stocks - A robust portfolio is suggested, including companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, BeiGene, and United Imaging Healthcare, among others [10]

时的科技斩获 350 架海外订单， 国际低空经济博览会召开在即 投资要点 西南证券研究院 [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 443 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 38,945.10 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 37,382.11 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 33.2 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 13.4 | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 -10% 2% 14% 26% 38% 50% 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 25/3 25/5 25/7 机械设备 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据 [Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 07 月 20 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 低空经济行业双周报（0707-0720） 气象保障服务能力，推动气象科技赋能低空经济发展，助力低空经济实现"快 起步、飞得起、管得住、发展好"的良好局面，为全国低空气象服务贡献"成 都方案"。实验室由四川省气象局联合中国气象科学研究院，依托 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1]. Core Insights - The robot index outperformed the market, with a 4.5% increase during the week of July 14-20, 2025, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.8 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 3.5 percentage points [5][12]. - The launch of the Walker S2 by UBTECH, the world's first humanoid robot with a hot-swappable battery system, allows for 24/7 operation without human intervention, enhancing productivity and reducing maintenance costs [17][18]. - NVIDIA's CEO Huang Renxun stated that the next wave of AI will be in robotics, emphasizing the integration of AI in manufacturing and human-robot collaboration [21]. - The establishment of a one-stop intelligent public service platform for humanoid robots in Beijing aims to integrate technology development, data collection, and testing capabilities [22]. - Yushutech has initiated its IPO process, with annual revenue exceeding 1 billion RMB [23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The robot index increased by 4.5% from July 14 to July 20, 2025, outperforming major indices [5][12]. Industry Dynamics - UBTECH's Walker S2 features a unique battery swapping technology that allows for seamless operation and reduces downtime [17][18]. - The platform launched in Beijing aims to support the development and application of humanoid robots [22]. Financing Dynamics - Yushutech has started its IPO process, with significant control held by its founder [23].

Core Views - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, copper, and aluminum, emphasizing the importance of strategic metals [1][3] - In H1 2025, domestic economic indicators show signs of bottoming out, with improvements in real estate construction and a gradual shift towards new economic drivers [4][8] - The global economic landscape is being reshaped by fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and the impacts of trade wars, leading to significant changes in resource sectors [4][8] Investment Strategies - **Main Line 1: Expansion on the Denominator Side - Gold and Silver**: Focus on gold and silver, with specific attention to the performance of gold stocks and the potential for silver due to its high price ratio to gold [4][5] - **Main Line 2: Improvement on the Numerator Side - Aluminum, Copper, Tin**: Anticipate continued high profitability in aluminum due to falling costs, while remaining cautious of potential short-term demand weakness [4][7] - **Main Line 3: Key Strategic Metals**: Highlighting opportunities in rare earths and other strategic metals amid US-China tensions, particularly in six key strategic metals [4][7] - **Main Line 4: Supply-Side Disruptions from Anti-Competition**: The report suggests that supply-side constraints in sectors like lithium carbonate may present attractive bottom-fishing opportunities [4][7] Market Performance - The CRB metal spot index increased by 7.08% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in metal prices [9][10] - Gold prices surged by 23.93% during the same period, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [12][14] - Industrial metals, particularly tin and copper, saw significant price increases of 19.91% and 15.59% respectively, while zinc prices fell by 5.55% [16][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with LME copper stocks decreasing by 66.17% by June 30, 2025 [21][69] - The report anticipates limited growth in global copper supply due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, projecting only a 2.3% increase in global copper production in 2025 [62][64] - The refined copper market is expected to remain slightly short, with a projected demand growth of 7.1% for 2025, supporting a high price center for copper [69] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.17% from January to June 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [38][40] - Sub-sectors such as tungsten, gold, and rare earths performed particularly well, with respective increases of 39.64%, 33.57%, and 31.88% [42][44] - Companies closely tied to resource price fluctuations, particularly in gold and rare earths, showed strong performance, while midstream processing companies faced challenges due to weak downstream demand [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry as of July 15, 2025 [1] Core Insights - The potassium fertilizer prices are experiencing a continuous recovery, benefiting companies with abundant resources [2] - Domestic production of potassium chloride has decreased year-on-year, while inventory levels remain low, indicating a tightening supply [3] - The potassium fertilizer market is characterized by an oligopoly, with geopolitical conflicts introducing uncertainties that may affect supply and pricing [4] Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer Price Trends - As of July 11, 2025, domestic prices for potassium chloride have risen significantly, with prices at 3339 CNY/ton and 3000 CNY/ton, marking increases of 823 CNY/ton and 450 CNY/ton since the beginning of the year [2] - In Q2 2025, the average price for domestic potassium chloride was 2993.95 CNY/ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 105.50 CNY/ton and a year-on-year increase of 597.50 CNY/ton [2] Domestic Production and Inventory - In the first half of 2025, China's potassium chloride production totaled 2.53 million tons, a decrease of 17.1% year-on-year, with June's production at 416,300 tons, down 27.9% year-on-year [3] - Domestic market inventory stands at 1.768 million tons, down 820,000 tons since the beginning of the year, indicating a tight supply situation [3] Market Structure and Geopolitical Risks - The global potassium fertilizer market is dominated by a few countries, primarily Canada, Russia, and Belarus, creating an oligopolistic structure [4] - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S. imposing tariffs on potassium fertilizer imports from Canada and Mexico, and conflicts involving Israel, pose risks to supply and pricing stability [4] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that companies with rich potassium resources are likely to benefit from the ongoing market recovery, with specific companies mentioned as potential investment targets [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market has likely fully priced in policy expectations. In May 2025, both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were fully implemented, and with a 90 - day exemption for Sino - US tariff issues, Q2 economic data may be good. There is little possibility of the market trading monetary policy easing in the short term. Fiscal policy is adopting a "debt resolution + development" dual - wheel drive strategy, and the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies will likely continue. For real estate policies, although comprehensive stimulus measures have been introduced, the key lies in the substantial recovery of consumer demand, and the policy transmission efficiency may be in the stage from "quantitative change" to "qualitative change" [5][38]. - In 2025, an abundant liquidity environment will be maintained. Since 2025, the monetary policy's statement on liquidity has changed from "maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity" to "maintaining abundant liquidity". After correcting the bond market's over - reaction in Q1, the money market was relatively loose in Q2. The central bank ensured market liquidity through various measures during special periods. With the downward trend of bank - based fund lending last week, the central bank may use outright reverse repurchases to ease market liquidity next week [5][39]. - The supply shock in Q3 may be relatively controllable. The net financing rhythm of national debt in 2025 is faster than the same period. As of July 11, its net financing accounted for 56.66% of the whole year. Local debt supply may impact the market, and the new special bond issuance scale in Q3 may be large. However, due to the market's increased adaptability to supply shocks and the alleviation of the pumping effect by accelerated fiscal expenditures, fiscal supply may not be the core factor causing the bond market to weaken [5][40]. - In 2025, external interference factors have increased, but the impact of tariffs on pricing has marginally weakened. Although the external environment is more complex, the RMB exchange rate has stabilized after the Fed's interest rate cuts. The impact of tariffs on the domestic market's pricing may become dull, and the constraints of overseas factors on the bond market will be better than previous years [7][43]. - The traditional factors causing the "seasonal weakness" of the bond market in Q3 may have limited impact on the Q3 2025 bond market. Currently, the market trading sentiment is active. With institutions like state - owned banks and rural commercial banks supporting the market and the possible decline of insurance companies'预定利率 in Q3, the bond market may show a trend of "easy to fall, hard to rise". But the downward space of long - term interest rates may need more factors to catalyze. The investment portfolio of "short - term credit + long - term local bonds" can be considered for allocation, and the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond active bonds can be selected for trading [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "Seasonal Weakness" of the Bond Market in Q3 - From 2021 - 2024, the bond market in Q3 showed intensified fluctuations. From 2021 - 2023, it presented a typical "V - shaped" trend, while in 2024, it had multiple staged rebounds in a downward trend [2][11]. - In 2021, the bond market in Q3 had a "first down, then up" pattern, affected by "RRR cut driving interest rates down → economic data and policy expectation correction → supply pressure disturbance" [2][12]. - In 2022, the core logic of the bond market's weakness in Q3 was "economic expectation improvement + marginal tightening of the money market + Fed's interest rate hikes" [2][19]. - In 2023, the bond market in Q3 was mainly affected by "exchange rate pressure + neutral liquidity + stabilization of the fundamentals", leading to increased volatility [2][29]. - In 2024, the core driving factor for the multiple staged rebounds of the bond market in Q3 was "policy expectation changes" [2][33]. 3.2 Traditional Factors May Have Limited Impact on Q3 2025 Bond Market - Market has fully priced in policy expectations. Monetary policy easing is unlikely to be traded in the short term. Fiscal and real estate policies are in a stage of effectiveness accumulation [5][38]. - An abundant liquidity environment will be maintained. The central bank will ensure market liquidity through various measures, and may use outright reverse repurchases next week [5][39]. - Supply shock in Q3 may be controllable. National debt net financing rhythm is faster, and local debt supply may impact the market, but overall, fiscal supply may not be the core factor for the bond market's weakness [5][40]. - External interference factors have increased, but the impact of tariffs on pricing has weakened. The RMB exchange rate has stabilized, and the constraints of overseas factors on the bond market will be better [7][43]. 3.3 Important Matters - In June 2025, CPI turned from a decline to an increase year - on - year, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. PPI continued to decline year - on - year [44]. - The Ministry of Finance extended the assessment cycle of state - owned commercial insurance companies' performance indicators, adjusting the "net asset yield" assessment method [45]. 3.4 Money Market - Last week, the central bank's net open - market reverse repurchase operation was - 226.5 billion yuan, and 100 billion yuan of MLF will mature next week. The money market was relatively loose, with DR001 below the policy rate [46][47]. - In the inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) market, city commercial banks had the largest issuance scale last week. Except for rural commercial banks, other commercial banks were net lenders. The term spread between 1Y and 3M NCD issuance rates widened, and the 1Y state - owned bank NCD issuance rate reached around 1.6% [46][59]. 3.5 Bond Market - At the beginning of July, the issuance and net financing of national debt were stable, while local debt net financing was slow. New 20 - year and 30 - year special treasury bonds will be issued next week [67]. - Last week, the bond market was in an adjustment stage under the stock - bond seesaw effect. The yield spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds and national development bank bonds changed, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year national development bank bonds increased slightly [78]. - The liquidity premium of the 10 - year treasury bond active and sub - active bonds returned to 2 - 3BP. The term spread of 10 - 1 year treasury bonds narrowed slightly, and the long - term and ultra - long - term treasury - local bond spreads narrowed [81][85][88]. 3.6 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading decreased but remained at around 8 trillion yuan. In the cash bond market, state - owned banks and rural commercial banks increased their positions, while securities firms and funds reduced their positions [92][101]. - In May 2025, the overall leverage ratio of institutions in the inter - bank market was basically flat month - on - month and slightly increased year - on - year [92].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhujiang Beer (002461) with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company reported a strong profit growth in Q2, with the flagship product 97 Pure Draft showing robust momentum. The overall beer industry demand has been recovering well since Q2, with a 2.9% year-on-year increase in domestic beer production from April to May 2025. Zhujiang Beer, as a leading player in Guangdong, is expected to outperform the industry [7]. - The company has solidified its leading position in the Guangdong market, with a market share that has been steadily increasing despite competition. The non-draft channel accounts for over 70% of sales, significantly above the industry average, indicating a successful adaptation to the trend of high-end upgrades in the beer market [7]. - There is substantial room for product structure upgrades, with a clear "3+N" brand strategy aimed at enhancing high-end offerings. The company is expected to capture market share in higher price segments while maintaining its position in the 8 yuan and above price range [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2024A to 2027E, the projected revenue growth rates are 6.56%, 8.88%, 9.34%, and 9.09%, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 8.10 billion yuan in 2024 to 14.22 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 29.95%, 25.42%, 20.15%, and 16.48% [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.37 yuan in 2024 to 0.64 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 31 to 18 over the same period [2][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 7.85% in 2024 to 11.24% in 2027, indicating improving profitability and efficiency [2][8].

Domestic Developments - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3,317.4 billion, an increase of $32.2 billion (0.98%) from May[8] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, with reserves reaching 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons) by the end of June, up 70,000 ounces from May[9] - The State Council introduced 19 measures to stabilize employment, aiming to support businesses and market expectations amid a declining urban unemployment rate of 5% in May[15][16] International Developments - On July 7, 2025, President Trump signed a tariff order imposing tariffs of 25% to 40% on products from 14 countries, effective August 1, which may impact international trade confidence[18] - Eurozone retail sales grew by 1.8% year-on-year in May, surpassing expectations but slowing from a revised 2.7% in April, indicating a weakening consumer spending momentum[20] - The U.S. Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves from approximately $313 billion to $500 billion by the end of July, with further increases expected in September, raising concerns about debt sustainability[22] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.70% week-on-week, while iron ore prices rose by 2.22%, and copper prices fell by 1.49%[27] - The price of rebar rose by 0.56% week-on-week, while cement prices decreased by 1.23%[33] - The unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group remains high at 14.9%, indicating ongoing challenges in the job market despite overall improvements[16]