Group 1 - The overall A-share market increased by 0.06% this week, with the PE(TTM) decreasing by 0.02 to 17.35, and the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year percentiles changing to 52.7%, 37.7%, and 37.9% respectively [9][32] - The PB(LF) remained unchanged at 1.46, with the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year percentiles changing to 29.4%, 9.7%, and 5.9% respectively [9][32] - The risk premium for the overall A-share market increased by 0.01 percentage points to 3.38%, which is above the historical average plus one standard deviation, placing it at the 92.6th percentile over the past five years [9][39] Group 2 - Among major indices, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62%, with a PE(TTM) increase of 0.05 to 10.61, and the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year percentiles rising to 100%, 69.5%, and 64.8% respectively [9][22] - The Northbound 50 index experienced the largest decline of 1.89%, with a PE(TTM) decrease of 0.61 to 31.88, and the 1-year and 3-year percentiles rising to 94.1% and 97.1% respectively [9][34] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 3.11%, with a PE(TTM) rise of 0.32 to 10.04, and the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year percentiles changing to 100%, 60.4%, and 52.7% respectively [9][22] Group 3 - The top five performing sectors this week were real estate (+12.65%), building materials (+5.03%), construction decoration (+3%), banking (+2.94%), and light industry manufacturing (+2.76%) [9][46] - The sectors with the largest declines included household appliances (-2.36%), pharmaceuticals (-2.12%), coal (-2.1%), automobiles (-1.76%), and electric equipment (-1.68%) [9][46] - In terms of PE(TTM) changes, real estate (+2.28), building materials (+0.97), and light industry manufacturing (+0.69) saw the largest weekly increases, while defense and military (-0.98) and pharmaceuticals (-0.7) experienced the largest declines [9][46] Group 4 - Among the 25 popular sectors, the top gainers were low-altitude economy (+1.26%), liquor (+0.8%), cloud computing (+0.68%), and metaverse (+0.68%), while the largest decliners were CRO (-4.06%), energy storage (-3.18%), innovative drugs (-2.76%), photovoltaics (-2.52%), and power batteries (-2.16%) [9][54] - The sectors with the highest PE(TTM) weekly increases included aerospace and military (+0.62), metaverse (+0.47), and cloud computing (+0.21), while ChatGPT (-13.5) and semiconductors (-1.76) saw the largest declines [9][54]

Group 1 - The overall A-share market experienced a slight revenue increase of 0.1% year-on-year in Q1 2024, while net profit decreased by 4.6% year-on-year [9][63][101] - The main board's performance remains under pressure, with a net profit decline of 2.5% year-on-year in Q1 2024, while the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board showed significant recovery in profitability [10][159] - The gross profit margin for the overall A-share market increased by 0.32 percentage points to 17.7%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8% [79][106] Group 2 - The TMT sector showed the highest revenue growth at 11.5% in Q1 2024, indicating a recovery in this area [175] - The public utilities sector experienced a remarkable net profit growth of 46.9% in Q1 2024, the highest among all sectors [175] - The financial and real estate sectors are facing challenges, with the financial sector's performance at its lowest level since 2018 [175][178] Group 3 - The cash collection ratio for sales improved, indicating better overall cash flow for enterprises, with the ratio rising to 104.8% for the overall A-share market [81] - The asset turnover ratio continues to decline, suggesting that the economic recovery's impact on revenue has been partially released, but there is still room for improvement [78][105] - The overall profitability remains to be improved, with the net profit margin showing a downward trend despite some sectors experiencing recovery [2][30][63]

Core Viewpoints - The domestic new energy industry has entered a phase of overcapacity, leading to a significant decline in product prices and profit compression across the supply chain, resulting in a dual decline in earnings and valuations in the equity market [1] - The lithium battery industry chain is expected to see a wave of excess returns in the second half of the year, driven by cost reductions from falling lithium carbonate prices, strong demand for power batteries, and capacity control policies, similar to the "recessionary profit" period in the steel industry in 2014 [1] Industry Analysis Steel Industry Overcapacity Cycle (2013-2015) - The steel industry experienced five distinct phases during the overcapacity cycle from 2013 to 2015, with varying performance relative to the broader market [13] - Phase 1 (Jan 2013 - Feb 2014): Steel underperformed due to macroeconomic and industry pressures [4] - Phase 2 (Mar 2014 - Jun 2014): Steel performance was in line with the market as capacity reduction expectations began to emerge [13] - Phase 3 (Jul 2014 - Jan 2015): Steel rebounded sharply due to macroeconomic easing and "recessionary profit" improvements [13] - Phase 4 (Feb 2015 - Aug 2015): Steel performance was volatile, largely in line with the market [4] - Phase 5 (Sep 2015 - Dec 2015): Steel underperformed again due to renewed macroeconomic pressures and increased supply from overseas iron ore producers [134] - During the overcapacity cycle, the steel industry's pricing was influenced by alternating factors of demand and supply, with different segments (e.g., special steel vs. ordinary steel) showing varying levels of resilience [14] Lithium Battery Industry - The current lithium battery industry chain shows similarities to the steel industry's "recessionary profit" period in 2014, with potential for excess returns in the second half of the year [1] - The lithium battery supply chain is structurally similar to the steel industry, with upstream mining, midstream processing (e.g., cathode materials), and downstream battery production [62] Market Performance Steel Industry - In Phase 1 (Jan 2013 - Feb 2014), special steel stocks outperformed ordinary steel stocks, with companies like Yulong Co (+69%) and Jiuli Special Materials (+58%) leading the gains [81] - In Phase 3 (Jul 2014 - Jan 2015), the steel sector rose 87%, significantly outperforming the broader market, driven by expectations of improved real estate demand [93] - In Phase 5 (Sep 2015 - Dec 2015), steel stocks experienced a sharp decline, with special steel stocks (-17%) outperforming ordinary steel stocks (-26%) [142] Lithium Battery Industry - Lithium mining stocks began to decouple from lithium carbonate spot prices in late 2022, as investors anticipated a new capital expenditure cycle and increased supply [148] Supply and Demand Dynamics Steel Industry - The overcapacity in the steel industry was driven by a combination of increased supply from both domestic and international sources (e.g., Big 4 iron ore producers) and weakening demand from key sectors like real estate, home appliances, and automobiles [29] - Inventory pressures were most severe at the steel mill level, followed by midstream traders, with upstream iron ore inventories being the least pressured [78] Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry is currently experiencing a similar dynamic, with rapid demand growth post-pandemic leading to a surge in upstream mining capital expenditures, similar to the steel industry's expansion in 2012 [61] Policy Impact - A series of policies aimed at reducing steel capacity were introduced starting in September 2013, including the "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan," which targeted a reduction in crude steel capacity by 8% [52] - These policies led to market expectations of capacity reduction, which played a role in the steel industry's performance during the overcapacity cycle [52] Cost and Profit Analysis - In the steel industry, the 90th percentile production cost is a key support level for commodity prices, as seen in the case of copper and iron ore [152] - During the overcapacity cycle, steel mill profits were significantly compressed, with average simulated profits dropping to 350 yuan/ton in 2013, down from 880 yuan/ton in previous years [72] Capital Expenditure and Supply - The Big 4 iron ore producers (Vale, BHP, Rio Tinto, FMG) entered a new capital expenditure cycle in 2010, with capital expenditure growth peaking in Q4 2012 at a 58% year-on-year increase [11] - This increase in capital expenditure led to a significant expansion in iron ore supply, which contributed to the overcapacity in the steel industry [11] Inventory and Profitability - Inventory levels in the steel industry were a key indicator of profitability, with downstream inventory reductions in early 2014 leading to expectations of restocking and improved profitability [115] - However, if downstream demand did not materialize, the positive impact of low inventory levels on profitability would diminish [145]

Economic Performance - Industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year in the first four months, up 0.2 percentage points from January-March[15] - In April alone, industrial added value rose by 6.7%, a significant increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to March[15] - High-tech manufacturing saw an impressive growth of 11.3% in April, surpassing the previous month's 7.6%[15] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 143,401 billion yuan, growing by 4.2% year-on-year, but down 0.3 percentage points from January-March[17] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by 6.0%, a decline of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous period[7] - Manufacturing investment increased by 9.7% in the first four months, although this was a slight slowdown of 0.2 percentage points from January-March[21] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment fell by 9.8% year-on-year in the first four months, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points from January-March[18] - In April, the decline in real estate investment was 10.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to March[18] - New housing sales area dropped by 20.2% year-on-year in the first four months, with a further decline of 0.8 percentage points from January-March[18] Consumer Spending - Total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.1% year-on-year in the first four months, down 0.6 percentage points from January-March[23] - In April, retail sales increased by only 2.3%, marking a decline of 0.8 percentage points from March[24] - The retail sales of automobiles saw a significant drop, with a year-on-year decline of 5.6% in April[24]

Domestic Economic Policy - The issuance of special long-term bonds totaling 1 trillion yuan is set to begin on May 17, aimed at supporting major national strategies and key areas of security capability construction[5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1,250 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation at a rate of 2.50%, maintaining the previous level, indicating continued support for the real economy[39] Inflation and Consumer Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April increased by 3.4% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.5% in March, while core CPI rose by 3.6%, matching expectations[46] - U.S. retail sales for April showed no growth month-on-month, falling short of the expected 0.4% increase, indicating weakened consumer demand for non-essential goods[22] International Relations and Market Impact - Japan's central bank reduced its bond purchase amount from 4,750 billion yen to 4,250 billion yen, potentially increasing bond yield pressures and affecting the yen's value against the dollar[19] - The ongoing strategic cooperation between China and Russia is expected to deepen, with trade between the two countries reaching 240.11 billion USD in 2023, a 26.7% increase year-on-year[40] Commodity Prices and Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.69% week-on-week, while copper prices increased by 1.49%, reflecting mixed trends in commodity markets[24] - The average price of iron ore fell by 1.20% week-on-week, indicating a downward trend in raw material costs[24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (9888.HK) [1][17] Core Insights - Baidu's core business shows steady growth, with AI becoming a significant driver of business expansion. In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 31.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 7 billion RMB, up 22% year-on-year. The profit growth outpaced revenue growth, primarily due to high-quality growth in AI business and improved operational efficiency [2][18] - The online advertising revenue grew steadily, reaching 17 billion RMB in Q1 2024, a 3% increase year-on-year. Baidu is transitioning its advertising user experience from traditional mobile products to generative AI experiences, which is expected to enhance ad conversion rates and attract more advertisers. The Baidu APP's monthly active users (MAU) reached 676 million in March 2024, a 3% increase year-on-year [2][18] - Demand for intelligent cloud services is increasing, and advancements in autonomous driving capabilities are notable. The non-marketing revenue for Q1 2024 was 6.8 billion RMB, a 6% year-on-year increase, driven by intelligent cloud services. As of mid-April 2024, the Baidu PaddlePaddle platform has gathered 13 million developers. In autonomous driving, Baidu's ride-hailing service "Luobo Kuaipao" provided over 6 million rides by April 19, 2024, with a 25% year-on-year increase in Q1 2024 [2][18] - AI tools have been updated to enhance development efficiency. The Wenxin large model has over 200 million users, with a daily API call volume of 200 million. In Q1 2024, several lightweight large language models were launched, along with three major development tools: AgentBuilder, AppBuilder, and ModelBuilder, to assist developers and enterprises in creating intelligent applications and custom models [2][18] Financial Forecast and Rating - The company is expected to achieve adjusted EPS of 10.56 RMB, 11.10 RMB, and 11.69 RMB for the years 2024-2026, with Non-GAAP net profit projected to continue growing over the next three years. As a leading provider of comprehensive internet services, Baidu is actively building a new AI ecosystem, enhancing its AI capabilities to empower advertising, intelligent cloud, and autonomous driving business development. The order volume is expected to continue growing in 2024, maintaining the "Buy" rating [3][19][20]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the vaccine industry Core Insights - The vaccine industry experienced mixed performance in Q1 2024, with some products showing growth while others declined. Overall, the majority of vaccine batches saw a decrease in approvals compared to the previous year [3][4][10] Summary by Category Multi-Component Vaccines - In Q1 2024, the five-component vaccine saw a year-on-year decline in batch approvals, while the four-component vaccine experienced growth. Specifically, the four-component vaccine from Minhai Biological had 6 batches approved (+50%), while the five-component vaccine from Sanofi Pasteur had 17 batches approved (-23%) [3][6][8] Pneumonia Vaccines - Pneumonia vaccines showed significant growth in Q1 2024, with total batch approvals reaching 33, a 106% increase year-on-year. The 13-valent pneumonia vaccine had 19 batches approved (+138%), while the 23-valent pneumonia vaccine had 14 batches approved (+75%) [10][12][21] HPV Vaccines - The HPV vaccine sector saw a substantial decline in batch approvals, with a total of 35 batches approved in Q1 2024, representing an 80% decrease year-on-year. The two-component HPV vaccine faced the most significant drop, with only 9 batches approved (-93%) [28][31] Influenza Vaccines - Influenza vaccines had a mixed performance in Q1 2024, with a total of 8 batches approved, reflecting a 33% increase year-on-year. The three-component influenza vaccine had 5 batches approved (+150%), while the four-component vaccine had 3 batches approved [37][45] Rabies Vaccines - The rabies vaccine sector remained stable in Q1 2024, with a total of 163 batches approved, unchanged from the previous year. The market is shifting towards freeze-dried products, which accounted for all approved batches [58][62] Varicella Vaccines - The varicella vaccine saw a decline in batch approvals in Q1 2024, with 60 batches approved, representing a 17% decrease year-on-year. The largest contributor was Baike Biological, with 16 batches approved (-53%) [68][71]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (9888.HK) [1] Core Insights - Baidu Group reported a revenue of 31.5 billion RMB in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1%. The Non-GAAP net profit reached 7 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 22% [2] - The growth in profit outpaced revenue growth, primarily driven by high-quality growth in AI business and improved operational efficiency [2] - Core online advertising revenue was 17 billion RMB in Q1 2024, up 3% year-on-year, with an increase in user engagement on Baidu APP, which reached 676 million monthly active users, a 3% increase year-on-year [2] - Non-marketing revenue, driven by intelligent cloud services, reached 6.8 billion RMB, a 6% year-on-year growth, with significant advancements in smart driving capabilities [2] - The AI tools have been updated to enhance development efficiency, with the Wenxin large model user base exceeding 200 million and daily API calls reaching 200 million [2] Financial Forecasts - The adjusted EPS for Baidu Group is projected to be 10.56 RMB, 11.10 RMB, and 11.69 RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to continue growing over the next three years, with the company actively building an AI ecosystem to empower its advertising, intelligent cloud, and smart driving businesses [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are 143.6 billion RMB, 153.2 billion RMB, and 162.3 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 6.69%, 6.71%, and 5.91% [4]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The domestic new energy sector has entered a phase of oversupply, with product prices halved, leading to profit clearance across all segments and a dual hit on earnings and valuations in the equity market[1] - Stakeholders are uncertain about when and how the oversupply in the industry will be resolved[1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The black industry is experiencing a supply surplus, with demand and supply factors alternating in pricing[1] - The Big 4 iron ore producers account for approximately 30% to 50% of global production, with their marginal production costs being among the lowest in the industry, positioning them as strong price setters[8] Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current lithium battery supply chain environment shares similarities with the "declining profit" period of the black chain in 2014[36] - The steel sector's performance can be divided into five phases from 2013 to 2015, with significant fluctuations in profitability and market performance[40] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Risks - The report highlights risks such as potential global economic volatility and the unreliability of historical data in predicting future market conditions[1] - The steel industry has shown a significant decline in demand from key sectors like real estate, home appliances, and automobiles since 2013, leading to a prolonged down cycle[13]

[Table_Summary] 转债市场表现回顾（2024.04.17-2024.05.17） 转债表现整体弱于正股。过去一个月（2024.04.17-2024.05.17），中证转债 指数上涨 3.87%，涨幅低于上证指数 4.89%和深证成指 6.06%。分风格来看， 万得可转债双低指数上涨 4.38%，偏股转债指数上涨 3.77%。在偏债转债和平 衡转债中，可转债收益率涨幅不及正股。 过去一个月，在转债市场，国防军工、商贸零售、环保行业的可转债涨幅居前， 美容护理、交通运输、电力设备行业的可转债涨幅最小。 可转债估值情况 [Table_ReportInfo] 2024 年 05 月 20 日 证券研究报告•金融工程动态报告 可转债量化月报系列 隐含波动率、YTM、波动率因子表现较好 ——可转债因子量化跟踪（2024.4.17-5.17） 过去一个月，全市场可转债加权的转股溢价率估值高位下降，纯债溢价率估值 低位修复。分风格来看，低价可转债，特别是 110-120元价格可转债转股溢价 率估值抬升；高价可转债转股溢价率估值压缩。 低价可转债数量减少，100元以下可转债由 53只减少至 27只，110-110 ...