Investment Rating - Key companies rated as "Buy": Ningde Times, Dongfang Cable [1] - Key companies rated as "Hold": XJ Electric, Sungrow Power Supply, Trina Solar [1] Core Insights - Ningde Times reported a 28.6% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3, indicating strong profitability and growth potential [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the industry, particularly in the context of improving market sentiment and the potential for price recovery in certain segments [7] - The report suggests a focus on the electric grid equipment sector, highlighting the ongoing transition towards new power systems and the expected increase in demand for high-voltage and digital equipment [7][20] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the ongoing growth in the lithium battery sector, with Ningde Times achieving a revenue of 259.04 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, despite a 12.1% year-on-year decline [8] - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a decline in export values, with a 40.3% year-on-year drop in solar cell exports in September 2024 [10] - The wind power sector is seeing a revival in project approvals and construction, with significant contracts awarded for offshore wind projects [17][18] Key Company Performance - Ningde Times' Q3 revenue was 92.28 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.14 billion yuan, reflecting a 26% year-on-year increase [8] - Dongfang Cable secured a contract worth 909 million yuan for a 550kV submarine cable project, indicating strong demand in the wind power sector [17] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong market positions and profitability, such as Ningde Times and XJ Electric [9][20] Market Trends - The electric grid sector is expected to see increased investment, with the State Grid planning to invest over 600 billion yuan in 2024, indicating robust growth prospects [20] - The report notes that the wind power sector is poised for a recovery, driven by low valuations and increasing project activity [18][19] - The hydrogen energy sector is also highlighted, with ongoing improvements in policy and significant overseas planning [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the electronic industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The launch of the vivo X200 series, featuring AI-centric enhancements and advanced hardware, is expected to drive demand in the mobile sector, benefiting upstream components like passive components, digital SoCs, RF chips, storage, and packaging [3][22]. - Intel's new PC processors, including the Core Ultra series with built-in NPU, are anticipated to boost the AI market, with significant growth potential in edge AI applications [3][22]. - Dell is set to release servers equipped with NVIDIA's Blackwell AI accelerators, indicating a recovery in chip production and a surge in demand for AI-related computing power [3][23]. - TSMC forecasts Q4 revenue between $26.1 billion and $26.9 billion, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 30%, driven by technological advancements and AI applications [3][24]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From October 14 to October 18, the electronic industry index rose by 9.65%, outperforming the overall market, which saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 1.36% [7][8]. Sub-industry News Semiconductor - TSMC's Q4 revenue is projected to grow by 35% year-on-year, with capital expenditures expected to remain above $30 billion [11][24]. - ASML reported a net sales of €7.5 billion in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 50.8% [12]. - The South Korean government plans to invest approximately 8.8 trillion KRW (around 457.81 billion RMB) in the semiconductor industry by 2025 [13]. AI, IoT, and Automotive Electronics - Dell will begin shipping servers with NVIDIA's Blackwell AI chips in November, indicating a recovery in production [14][23]. - AI servers accounted for 29% of the global server market in Q2 2024, with a market value of $45.42 billion, reflecting a 35% year-on-year growth [15]. Innovative Electronics & Wearables - XPANCEO showcased new AR smart contact lens prototypes, aiming for initial testing by 2026 [16]. Mobile & 5G - The iPhone 16 series saw a 20% increase in sales compared to its predecessor in the first three weeks post-launch [17][18]. - ODM/IDH smartphone shipments grew by 6% in the first half of 2024, driven by local and overseas market demand [19]. LCD and LED - OLED monitor shipments are expected to reach 1.44 million units in 2024, marking a 181% year-on-year increase [20]. Industry Investment Strategy - The report highlights the potential for growth in various sectors, including passive components, RF chips, and digital SoCs, driven by AI demand and inventory replenishment in mobile and PC markets [3][22].

行 ＃title＃ 北 行 बार 周报 | --- | --- | |----------|-------| | 相关公司 | | | 相关公司 | 评级 | | 宝钢股份 | 增持 | | 华菱钢铁 | 增持 | | 南钢股份 | 增持 | | 河钢资源 | 增持 | | 久立特材 | 增持 | | 甬金股份 | 增持 | | | | 来源：iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究 院 ＃相关rel报ate告dReport＃ 《【兴证金属】钢铁：财政政策 有望持续发力，继续看好钢铁股 修复行情》2024-10-13 《【兴证金属】钢铁：宏观与产 业共振，重视钢铁股修复行情》 2024-09-29 《【兴证金属】钢铁：钢价先扬 后抑，关注宏观刺激政策进度》 2024-09-21 S0190522050001 投资要点 ＃sum政ma策ry预＃ 期导致钢价大幅波动，短期黑色商品做多情绪降温 近期黑色商品估值修复明显，周初螺纹钢期货主力合约价格在 3500 元附近震荡。随着近两 周央行、财政部等多个重要部门针对房地产、地方化债、民生工程等方面发布重要政策举 措后，商品市场从前期由政策预期和情绪脉冲所主导的单边上行行情 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue guidance for 2024 revised upwards. The company reported Q3 revenue of NT$759.7 billion (YoY +39.0%, QoQ +12.8%), surpassing the consensus estimate of NT$750.6 billion. Net profit attributable to shareholders was NT$325.3 billion (YoY +54.2%, QoQ +31.2%), also exceeding the consensus estimate of NT$298.4 billion. This strong performance was driven by increased wafer shipments and average prices, with Q3 shipments reaching 3,338 thousand equivalent 12-inch wafers (YoY +15.0%, QoQ +6.8%) [1][2]. - Strong demand for AI is driving growth, with the N3 process accounting for 20% of wafer revenue for the first time. High-performance computing contributed 51% of wafer revenue (YoY +9 percentage points, QoQ -1 percentage point). Management estimates that revenue from AI processors (data center GPUs, AI accelerators, CPUs) will triple compared to last year, expected to account for about 15% of total revenue. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for advanced process foundry services [1][2]. - Key competitors are facing bottlenecks, solidifying the company's advantages in advanced processes and packaging. Competitors like Intel and Samsung are undergoing strategic adjustments, with Intel reducing its 2024 capital expenditure by over 20% and Samsung considering delays in purchasing lithography machines due to issues at its Texas plant. The company is expected to continue gaining outsourcing orders from competitors and improve bargaining power with upstream and downstream partners [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are NT$28,757 billion, NT$36,715 billion, and NT$43,580 billion, respectively, with net profits of NT$11,704 billion, NT$15,505 billion, and NT$18,597 billion [3][4]. - Key financial metrics include a projected gross margin of 56% in 2024, increasing to 58% by 2026, and a return on equity (ROE) of 27% in 2024, reaching 28% by 2026 [3][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ASML has been downgraded to "Neutral" due to adverse factors such as headwinds in the mature process market and adjustments in key customer production plans [3]. Core Views - ASML's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations with revenues of €7.467 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 19.6%. Net profit for the same period was €2.077 billion, up 9.7% year-over-year and 31.6% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - However, the company reported a significant drop in new orders, totaling €2.633 billion, which is a 52.7% decrease quarter-over-quarter and below the consensus estimate of €5.896 billion. The total order backlog at the end of the quarter was €36 billion, down from €39 billion in the previous quarter [1][3]. - For Q4 2024, ASML provided revenue guidance of €8.8-9.2 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of €8.751 billion [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for ASML are adjusted to €28.07 billion for 2024, €31.84 billion for 2025, and €38.00 billion for 2026, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [3]. - Net profit estimates are revised to €7.409 billion for 2024, €9.406 billion for 2025, and €11.701 billion for 2026 [3]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 50.5% in 2024, improving to 51.6% in 2025 and 53.3% in 2026 [3][12]. Market Data - As of October 17, 2024, ASML's closing price was $700.60, with a total share capital of 393 million shares and net assets amounting to €16.152 billion [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be €19.00 in 2024, increasing to €24.37 in 2025 and €30.62 in 2026 [12]. Industry Outlook - The long-term outlook remains positive due to anticipated demand for AI infrastructure and terminals, although short-term challenges persist due to slow recovery in the mature process semiconductor supply-demand relationship [3]. - Key customers, including Intel and Samsung, have announced reductions in capital expenditures, which may negatively impact ASML's performance in the near term [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanhua Futures, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [2][5]. Core Insights - Nanhua Futures' net interest income has become the main support for performance growth, with net interest income increasing by 25.3% year-on-year to 5.20 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies in the domestic futures market, which is projected to enhance trading activity and support long-term growth [1]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 and 2025 is forecasted to be 4.79 billion yuan and 5.30 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 19.2% and 10.7% [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2024, Nanhua Futures achieved total revenue of 44.61 million yuan, a decrease of 8.0% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 20.1% to 3.58 million yuan [3]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) increased by 0.77 percentage points to 9.33% [3]. Income Breakdown - The company reported net income from fees and commissions of 4.00 million yuan, down 9.4% year-on-year, while net interest income was 5.20 million yuan, up 25.3% [1]. - Investment income and fair value changes were significantly lower, at 0.10 million yuan, down 86.8% year-on-year [1]. Future Projections - The forecast for operating income in 2024 is 63.59 million yuan, with net profit projected at 4.79 million yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.2 times based on the closing price on October 18 [4]. - For 2025, net profit is expected to reach 5.30 million yuan, with a PE ratio of 14.7 times [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - Revenue decline has slightly narrowed, while profit growth has slowed. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.6% and increased by 0.2% year-on-year, respectively [4][6]. - Retail AUM and high-quality customer base continue to grow steadily. As of the end of Q3 2024, retail AUM reached 4.15 trillion yuan, up 2.9% from the end of the previous year [4][6]. - Credit growth has slowed, and retail structure continues to be optimized. Total assets increased by 4.2% year-on-year, while loans decreased by 1.1% [2][4]. - The net interest margin decreased by 4 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 1.87% in Q3 2024 [5][6]. - The retail non-performing loan ratio is expected to stabilize gradually, with a slight decline in the provision coverage ratio [5][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 111.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, and a net profit of 39.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [4][6]. - Breakdown of revenue sources shows net interest income down 20.6%, fee income down 18.5%, and investment-related income up 57.9% [4][6]. Asset and Loan Structure - As of Q3 2024, total assets increased by 4.2% year-on-year, with loans down 1.1% [2][4]. - Public loans contributed to the main incremental growth, with a 17.0% increase year-on-year, while retail loans decreased by 9.6% [2][4]. Interest Margin and Costs - The net interest margin for Q3 2024 was 1.87%, down 4 basis points from the previous quarter [5][6]. - The cost-to-income ratio for the first three quarters was 27.4%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points year-on-year [4][6]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio as of Q3 2024 was 1.06%, stable compared to the end of the previous year, while the retail non-performing loan ratio was 1.43% [5][6]. - The provision coverage ratio decreased to 251% [6]. Earnings Forecast - The EPS forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been slightly adjusted to 2.36 yuan and 2.40 yuan, respectively [3][6]. - The estimated book value per share at the end of 2024 is 22.86 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-book ratio of 0.53 times [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The upcoming quarterly earnings reports are expected to show significant volatility and differentiation among companies in the computer sector, with 336 stocks in the Shenwan computer index, of which only 17 have disclosed earnings forecasts or reports so far [3][8]. - The report highlights a historical high in risk appetite, with notable performance in the securities IT sector, where companies like Hengsheng Electronics and Tonghuashun have seen average weekly gains of 18.7% [3][8]. - There is a strong long-term upward trend in the computer industry, driven by policies supporting domestic demand and debt, particularly in the G-end market [3][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The report anticipates increased volatility and differentiation as the quarterly earnings disclosure window approaches, with a significant number of companies set to report in the coming weeks [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor marginal changes in industries and individual stocks due to the current high-risk appetite [3][8]. Intel's Business in China - Intel remains the global leader in CPU market share, with a 61% share in Q1 2024, while AMD holds 35.8%, together accounting for 96.8% of the market [10][11]. - Intel's revenue in mainland China exceeded 100 billion RMB, although it has seen a decline from 20 billion USD in 2019 to 14.9 billion USD in 2023 [10][11]. Domestic CPU Performance - Domestic CPU manufacturers are rapidly improving their product performance, with leading products nearing international standards [14][17]. - The revenue of domestic CPU companies has significantly increased, with Haiguang's revenue growing from 400 million RMB in 2019 to 6 billion RMB in 2023 [17]. Investment Opportunities in the Xinchuang Industry Chain - The report suggests focusing on the Xinchuang industry chain, highlighting key segments such as chips, basic software, and complete machines [19]. - Recommended companies include Haiguang Information, Longxin Zhongke, and China Software among others [19]. Market Performance Review - The computer index rose by 11.15% from October 13 to October 19, outperforming both the ChiNext index and the Shanghai Composite index [21][22]. - The report provides a detailed performance review of major indices, indicating strong growth in the computer sector [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook based on expected market performance relative to benchmark indices [2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent introduction of two innovative policy tools by the central bank aimed at enhancing market liquidity and investor confidence, specifically the Securities, Fund, and Insurance Company Swap Facility (SFISF) and the Stock Buyback and Increase Re-loan [4][6]. - A series of macroeconomic policies have been implemented to support high-quality economic development, including interest rate cuts and new monetary policy tools, which are expected to significantly boost market sentiment [3][4]. - The SFISF is expected to bring in incremental funds to the capital market, with an initial operation scale of 500 billion yuan, and the first batch of 20 companies has already applied for over 200 billion yuan [4][6]. - The Stock Buyback and Increase Re-loan has an initial quota of 300 billion yuan at a low interest rate of 1.75%, aimed at supporting listed companies in repurchasing and increasing their shares [4][6]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - On September 24, a series of financial support policies were announced, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, aimed at stabilizing the stock market [5]. - The central bank and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) have jointly issued guidelines to facilitate long-term capital inflow into the market [5]. Market Impact - The introduction of the SFISF and Stock Buyback and Increase Re-loan is expected to enhance market liquidity and investor confidence, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite [4][6]. - The report emphasizes that brokerages, as intermediaries in the capital market, will benefit from the anticipated increase in trading activity as market conditions improve [4][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the combination of the SFISF and Stock Buyback and Increase Re-loan will provide substantial support for equity investments, encouraging various market participants to increase their holdings in equity assets [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from increased water storage capacity, which is projected to sustain profit growth. The report highlights a year-on-year increase in water storage levels at key power stations, suggesting a favorable environment for electricity generation in the upcoming quarter [1][3]. - The company's investment in Yalong River Hydropower is anticipated to enhance its profitability, with ongoing projects expected to contribute significantly to revenue [1][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported revenue of 1,482 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%. Projections for 2024 and 2025 indicate revenues of 1,682 million yuan and 1,781 million yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 13.4% and 5.9% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 4,400 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 25.2%. Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 suggest net profits of 5,136 million yuan and 5,509 million yuan, representing growth rates of 16.7% and 7.3% [2][3]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 46.4% in 2023 to 52.5% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [2][3]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable, with estimates of 11.9% for 2023 and slightly declining to 12.2% by 2026 [2][3]. Investment Highlights - The company has a strong stake in Yalong River Hydropower (48%) and Dadu River Hydropower (20%), which are expected to provide stable investment returns and further enhance profitability [3]. - The report notes that the company's electricity generation volume increased by 8.46% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a corresponding rise in electricity prices contributing to improved margins [2][3]. - Financial expenses have decreased due to lower interest rates and the conversion of convertible bonds, leading to a reduction in the debt ratio to 32.17% [2][3].