英大策略专题（2024年第7期，总第52期）策 略 研 究 英大证券研究所-研究报告-宏观点评 报告日期：2024年12月2日 需求改善幅度较大 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Market Overview - The market is expected to experience a rebound after recent adjustments, with opportunities for year-end positioning [1][10] - Last week's trading volume increased from 1.3 trillion to 1.7 trillion, indicating a gradual recovery in market activity [10][12] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3326.46 points, up 30.76 points, with a gain of 0.93% [1][3] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks have shown continuous strength, with significant gains in dairy, light industry, food and beverage, and retail sectors [5][11] - The tourism and hotel sector has also seen a rise, supported by China's expanding visa-free policies for several countries [5][6] - The textile and apparel sector is expected to improve as winter clothing sales peak, aided by consumption vouchers and subsidies [5][6] - Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) concepts have gained traction, particularly following Shenzhen's action plan to promote high-quality M&A development [6][7] Investment Opportunities - Focus on consumer goods, particularly affordable options in beverages, dairy, and snacks, as they present good value at current valuations [5][11] - The robotics sector is highlighted for its long-term growth potential, driven by strong internal growth momentum and supportive government policies [9][11] - The AI theme remains active, with investments expected to shift towards companies demonstrating solid performance and application of AI technologies [9][10] Future Outlook - Investors are advised to position themselves for potential year-end market opportunities, particularly in sectors benefiting from debt restructuring and new productivity initiatives [10][12] - Continued monitoring of the dollar and yuan exchange rates is recommended to capture subtle changes in market volume [1][10]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed signs of recovery, regaining the 3300-point level, with important meetings approaching potentially boosting market sentiment [1][3] - On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3309.78 points, up 50.02 points, a rise of 1.53%, with total trading volume reaching 145.87 billion [3] - The market saw a broad-based increase in individual stocks, with significant gains in sectors such as gaming, wind power equipment, consumer goods, and cultural media [1][3] Sector Performance - The IP economy concept stocks continued to rise, with "millet economy" related stocks showing strong performance, indicating a growing interest in IP-derived products [3][4] - The cultural media sector experienced substantial growth, driven by advancements in AI technology and the popularity of interactive content such as short dramas and games [4][5] - The AI theme stocks were notably active, with developments from OpenAI indicating a shift towards more interactive AI applications, which could lead to significant investment opportunities [5][6] Future Market Outlook - Following recent market adjustments, the overall market activity is gradually increasing, with sectors like consumption and pharmaceuticals showing signs of recovery [6] - The upcoming important meetings and the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate are expected to enhance market sentiment and potentially drive a short-term rebound [6] - Investors are advised to consider low-cost entry points for cross-year market trends and to focus on sectors that may benefit from debt resolution plans and new productivity areas [6]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a slight lack of trading volume, indicating that the adjustment phase may be nearing its end, and there is an opportunity to position for the year-end market rally [1][6] - On Thursday, the three major indices opened lower and experienced fluctuations, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% in the first half of the day. The overall sentiment in the market remains average, with a total trading volume of 14.9 billion [1][3] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks showed resilience, with significant gains in retail, commercial retail, food and beverage, and dairy sectors. This trend is expected to continue, driven by favorable policies aimed at boosting consumption [3][4] - Shenzhen local stocks surged following the announcement of a plan to promote high-quality mergers and acquisitions, aiming for a total market value of over 15 trillion yuan by the end of 2027 [3][4] - The IP economy concept stocks experienced a pullback after a recent surge, indicating volatility in this sector [4][5] Future Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to recover as it approaches the end of the adjustment phase, with potential for a year-end rally as important meetings draw near, which may boost market sentiment [6][7] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan, as well as the subtle changes in trading volume, to identify potential investment opportunities [6][7] - Key investment themes include sectors benefiting from debt resolution plans, new productivity areas, and opportunities in mergers and acquisitions as well as domestic consumption [6][7]

Profit Trends - The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first ten months of the year reached 5.87 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%[2] - The total operating income for these enterprises was 110.96 trillion yuan, with a cumulative growth rate of 1.9%, down from 2.1%[2] - The total operating costs for these enterprises amounted to 94.75 trillion yuan, with a cumulative growth rate of 2.3%, down from 2.4%[2] Inventory and Pricing - As of October, the finished goods inventory for industrial enterprises was 6.53 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.9%[2] - The increase in finished goods inventory suggests a potential willingness for enterprises to replenish stock[2] - The upward pressure on finished goods prices is weakening, impacting enterprise revenue and profit growth[2] Sector Performance - State-owned industrial enterprises reported a total profit of 1.85 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%, marking three consecutive months of negative growth[2] - Foreign-funded industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 1.46 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, down from 1.5%[2] - The operating income for foreign-funded enterprises showed a year-on-year decline of 0.6%, indicating two consecutive months of negative growth[2] Economic Outlook - The anticipated U.S. economic slowdown is affecting global markets, which in turn impacts domestic stock performance and economic recovery[2] - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may enhance domestic growth policy space[2] - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued service sectors benefiting from domestic demand growth and emerging strategic industries with "hard technology" capabilities[2]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to significant shrinkage in trading volume, external pressures such as RMB depreciation and geopolitical risks, and a lack of incremental capital [1][3] - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3259.76 points, down 4 points or 0.12%, with a total trading volume of 509.49 billion; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10333.23 points, down 87.29 points or 0.84%, with a total trading volume of 795.48 billion [3][4] Sector Performance - The IP economy concept stocks surged, with several stocks experiencing consecutive gains, driven by the popularity of "Guzi" economy-related stocks, which are derived from various cultural IPs [3][4] - The tourism and hotel sector saw significant gains, bolstered by China's expansion of visa-free policies for several countries, effective from November 30, 2024, which is expected to enhance inbound tourism [3][4] - Consumer stocks, particularly in dairy, light household goods, food and beverage, and commercial retail, performed well, indicating potential investment opportunities in mass consumer goods due to favorable pricing and government initiatives to boost consumption [4][5] Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that despite the current market adjustments, there are signs of potential rebounds, especially if trading volumes can increase again after the current phase of adjustment [5][6] - Investors are advised to consider strategic positions for the upcoming year, focusing on sectors that may benefit from debt resolution plans, new productive forces, and opportunities in mergers and acquisitions as well as domestic consumption [5][6]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a phase of adjustment and differentiation, with performance driven by earnings becoming a key factor for stock price movements [1][5] - Recent market fluctuations are attributed to profit-taking near previous high points, lack of substantial fiscal stimulus from important meetings, a strong US dollar pressuring the RMB, and a decline in trading volume [1][5] - Trading volume has decreased significantly, dropping below 2 trillion, indicating a potential shift to a consolidation phase in the market [1][5] Sector Performance - The banking sector, along with coal, aviation, steel, electricity, insurance, and real estate, showed strong performance, while sectors like education, software development, gaming, cultural media, computer equipment, and consumer electronics faced declines [1][3] - High dividend stocks, particularly in banking, oil and gas, and infrastructure, are gaining attention as the market weakens, with a focus on state-owned enterprises in essential industries [3][5] - The real estate sector has seen a significant rise due to government policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with recent data indicating a narrowing decline in housing prices across major cities [3][5] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its downward adjustment, with large-cap stocks providing support, particularly those in banking and infrastructure sectors [5][6] - As policy uncertainties diminish and trading volume declines, market dynamics may shift, with industry conditions and individual company performance becoming crucial for stock price support [5][7]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed signs of recovery with major indices rebounding after a dip, indicating potential short-term rebound opportunities [1][6] - The strong performance of large-cap stocks, particularly in the banking, real estate, and infrastructure sectors, was driven by policy stimuli, including market value management guidelines [1][3] - Despite the positive sentiment, the report cautions that even with favorable conditions, the performance of "broken net" stocks may not be sustainable if their fundamentals remain weak [1][4] Industry Insights - Energy metals, electronic chemicals, semiconductors, optical electronics, motors, batteries, power equipment, photovoltaic equipment, electronic components, consumer electronics, software development, and general equipment sectors saw significant gains [3][4] - The lithium battery and new energy sectors experienced a notable rebound after a prolonged decline since November 2021, with expectations for continued strength in Q4 2024 due to ongoing global demand for lithium, photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage [3][4] - The robotics sector, particularly in industrial robots, is expected to grow rapidly, supported by strong internal growth momentum and favorable government policies, with an annual revenue growth rate exceeding 20% as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][6] Investment Strategy - For short-term investors, the report suggests a strategy of buying on dips and selecting quality stocks, while long-term investors are advised to maintain positions in a favorable policy environment with ample liquidity [8][9] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring industry fundamentals and company performance, especially for stocks that have recently experienced significant price fluctuations [1][4]

Market Overview - The report indicates that after a significant adjustment, there is a potential demand for a rebound in the market. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3300 points due to factors such as a strong US dollar and concerns over tariffs and domestic economic conditions [1][5] - The market experienced a collective decline on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3263.76 points, down 3.43 points or 0.10%, and total trading volume reaching 1490.2 billion [2][3] Sector Performance - The textile and apparel sector saw a strong increase, driven by improved sales expectations as winter clothing sales peak and various consumer incentives are expected to boost demand. The leading companies in this sector are currently at historically low valuation levels, indicating potential for future growth [3][4] - The tourism and hotel sector also experienced significant gains, attributed to China's expansion of visa-free policies for several countries, which is expected to enhance inbound tourism [3][4] - The solid-state battery sector showed strong performance, with a rebound following a period of significant decline since November 2021. The report highlights ongoing demand for lithium batteries and other renewable energy technologies as global efforts to achieve carbon neutrality continue [4][5] Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that despite external pressures and challenges, there is a necessity for increased policy measures to counteract market adjustments. The current market liquidity is relatively abundant, indicating that a rebound could occur after the recent adjustments [5][6] - Investors are advised to consider positioning for the upcoming cross-year market trends while carefully planning for next year's allocations. Key areas to monitor include industries benefiting from debt resolution plans and sectors related to new productive forces, as well as opportunities in mergers and acquisitions and domestic consumption [6][7]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a short-term upward trend but may still face fluctuations. The three major indices collectively rose, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 3% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3367.99 points, up by 21.98 points, a rise of 0.66%, with a total trading volume of 6278.58 billion [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw increases, with respective rises of 0.78% and 0.50% [3] Sector Performance - The fertilizer industry saw significant gains, driven by new regulations aimed at controlling pollution from phosphogypsum, which could lower production costs for companies in this sector [3][5] - AI-related stocks, including those focused on ChatGPT and virtual digital humans, experienced substantial increases following news of OpenAI's upcoming AI agent release, indicating a shift towards more practical applications of AI technology [3][5] - The telecommunications services sector also performed well, with notable interest in Huawei's new smartphone, which is expected to be unveiled soon [5] Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that investors should be cautious but may find short-term rebound opportunities. The market's recent performance is attributed to supportive policies and liquidity injections from the central bank [6][9] - Despite the positive sentiment, there are concerns regarding the weak performance of large-cap stocks and declining trading volumes, which could hinder sustained market growth [6][10] - Investors are advised to selectively enter quality stocks during dips, while long-term investors may continue to hold positions as the overall market trend remains positive [7][10]