Core Views - The report suggests that after the A-share index breaks through 3400 points, the market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend due to ample liquidity and continuous policy support, with a focus on verifying economic fundamentals and policies [3][17][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of technology and consumer sectors as key factors for the sustainability of the market rally [3][17][19] Market Overview - Last week, the A-share market showed a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year at 3419.56 points, up 1.81% [7][19] - The consumer sector saw significant gains, particularly in dairy, food and beverage, and financial sectors, while technology stocks remained relatively subdued [3][10][19] Sector Analysis - **Consumer Sector**: The report highlights the collective rise in consumer stocks, driven by policies aimed at stimulating consumption, including increased credit support for retail and hospitality sectors [3][10][19] - **Financial Sector**: The financial sector is expected to benefit from a favorable monetary policy environment, with expectations of valuation recovery [3][10][19] - **Technology Sector**: While the long-term bullish logic for technology stocks remains intact, there is a cautionary note regarding potential short-term volatility and the need for performance verification during the earnings season [4][9][18] Investment Strategy - The report recommends investors to strategically increase positions in cyclical, high-dividend, or undervalued consumer stocks, while being cautious with high-valuation technology stocks that may face correction pressures [4][18] - It suggests a focus on stocks with strong earnings certainty during the upcoming earnings season, particularly in the technology sector [4][18] Economic Indicators - The report notes that the recent CPI data indicates a cooling inflation environment, which may lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially benefiting gold prices and traditional safe-haven assets [11][12] - The report also mentions the ongoing development of new industries such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, which are expected to grow significantly in the coming years [13][15]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周四晨报提醒，周三 A 股尾盘小幅翻绿，显示目前多空双方仍有分歧，或有 以下几个方面的原因：一是大盘 3400 点附近是前期密集成交区间，这个位置的 压力仍需化解；二是财报季的业绩分化。3 月中下旬至 4 月进入年报密集披露期， 企业盈利兑现度将成为试金石。当前市场对 AI 等科技股的估值已反映预期，但 部分标的业绩能否匹配高估值存在不确定性。 市场走势如我们预期，周四沪深三大指数集体调整，盘面上看，人行机器人、 人工智能等科技股大面积下跌，市场分化明显，煤炭、电力、公用事业等红利板 块走强。周四科技股的下挫核心还是阶段的上涨之后获利回吐的需求提升，另外， 一季度末至二季度初为财报密集披露期，部分高估值或缺乏业绩支撑的个股面临 回调压力。 整体上看，海外扰动以及国内基本面验证期之际，短期科技股或迎来分化回 落，不过，科技股中长期牛市逻辑未变，而板块也正从此前的题材炒作逐步向业 绩兑现过度。在此期间，投资者可减少波动大的科技股仓位，适当增持顺周期、 高股息率或低估值消费板块，同时，如果在此期间指数回调，则可布局业绩确定 性 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 3 月 14 日 市场进入业绩验证期，短期科技股或分化回落，择机配置高股息率股 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周四晨报提醒，周三 A 股尾盘小幅翻绿，显示目前多空双方仍有分歧，或有 以下几个方面的原因：一是大盘 3400 点附近是前期密集成交区间，这个位置的 压力仍需化解；二是财报季的业绩分化。3 月中下旬至 4 月进入年报密集披露期， 企业盈利兑现度将成为试金石。当前市场对 AI 等科技股的估值已反映预期，但 部分标的业绩能否匹配高估值存在不确定性。 市场走势如我们预期，周四沪深三大指数集体调整，盘面上看，人行机器人、 人工智能等科技股大面积下跌，市场分化明显，煤炭、电力、公用事业等红利板 块走强。周四科技股的下挫核心还是阶段的上涨之后获利回吐的需求提升，另外， 一季度末至二季度初为财报密集披露期，部分高估值或缺乏业绩支撑的个股面临 回调压力。 整体上看，海外扰动以及国内基本面验证期之际，短期科技股或迎来分化回 落，不过，科技股中长期牛市逻辑未变，而板块也正从此前的题材炒作逐步向业 绩兑现过度。在此期间，投资者可减少波动大的科技股仓位 ...

Core Views - The main trend in the market remains a slow bull market, with the need to resolve pressure around the 3400-point level, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high [2][8][9] A-Share Market Analysis - On Wednesday, despite the decline in US markets, A-shares demonstrated resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, although it could not maintain the upward momentum and closed slightly lower, indicating a divergence between bulls and bears [4][8] - The market is currently facing pressure around the 3400-point level, which is a previous area of concentrated trading, and this needs to be addressed [2][8] - The upcoming earnings season, particularly from mid-March to April, will be critical for assessing corporate profitability, which could lead to performance differentiation among stocks [2][8] - The market has already priced in expectations for AI and tech stocks, but there is uncertainty regarding whether some stocks can meet these high valuations [2][8] Sector Performance - The computing power sector saw a collective surge, driven by news of an AI and cloud computing industry conference in Hangzhou, indicating a potential acceleration in the digital economy [6] - The cultural media sector experienced significant gains, particularly in gaming and media, with a noted 42.75% increase in the first half of 2023, validating previous investment recommendations [7] - Despite a strong performance, the cultural media sector faced setbacks due to regulatory changes affecting gaming stocks, highlighting the volatility in this space [7] Market Sentiment - Overall, the market sentiment remains moderate, with a general trend of more stocks rising than falling, but the profitability effect is average, as indicated by a total trading volume of 16,838 billion [5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In February, the CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with urban and rural areas both showing a decline of 0.7%[2] - Food prices fell by 3.3% year-on-year, while non-food prices decreased by 0.1%[2] - The CPI experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.2% in February, with food prices down 0.5% and service prices down 0.4%[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI dropped by 2.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month in February[2] - Prices for production materials decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, while living materials saw a decline of 1.2%[2] - The prices in the electricity and heat production sector fell by 0.5% month-on-month, influenced by international oil price adjustments[2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The negative CPI growth is attributed to seasonal factors and is expected to rebound with consumer promotion policies[2] - Industrial production is gradually recovering, and the PPI year-on-year decline is anticipated to narrow[2] - The report highlights risks from global trade tensions and geopolitical instability affecting commodity prices and manufacturing costs[1]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market," indicating a positive outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index in the next six months [21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, which fell by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth since January 2024. This decline is attributed to various factors, including a high base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival [2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also saw a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% in February, with production material prices dropping by 2.5%. The report suggests that the PPI decline may continue to narrow as industrial demand recovers [2]. - The report anticipates that with the implementation of consumption promotion policies, the CPI is expected to rebound, despite the current negative growth [2]. Summary by Sections Macro Research - February CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with food prices down by 3.3% and non-food prices down by 0.1%. The CPI also fell by 0.2% month-on-month [2]. - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, with significant drops in production material prices [2]. - The report notes that the industrial production is gradually recovering, and the PPI's year-on-year decline may continue to narrow [2]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into various price trends, including a notable decrease in fresh vegetable prices by 3.8% month-on-month due to warmer weather and a drop in pork prices by 1.9% [2]. - The report also mentions that prices in the new energy and artificial intelligence sectors are experiencing upward trends, with certain metal prices increasing [2].

2025 年 3 月 12 日 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 策 略 晨 报 A 股市场凸显韧性，震荡慢牛仍是主基调，短期关注业绩支撑股 观点： 总量视角 研报内容 总量研究 【A 股大势研判】 一、周二市场综述 【A 股大势研判】 受特朗普政府关税政策升级、经济衰退预期升温，以及美联储降息预期的反 复等利空因素的影响，美股"黑色星期一"，周一道琼斯指数暴跌 2.08%，纳斯达 克指数重挫 4%，受此影响，全球资本市场遭遇波动。不过，虽然周二沪深三大指 数跳空低开，但 A 股逆势表现下体现出整体的稳定和韧性，三大指数尾盘均红盘 报收。盘面上看，航天航空、农林牧渔等板块逆势走强，内部结构性机会表现不 错。 因此，美股暴跌对 A 股的短期影响主要集中在情绪层面，实际影响有限。中 国经济处于新旧动能转换期，政策储备丰富。财政积极托底经济（今年赤字率拟 按 4%左右安排，比上年提高 1 个百分点。拟安排地方政府专项债券 4.4 万亿元， 比上年增加 5000 亿元。合计新增政府债务总规模 11.86 万亿元，比上年增加 2.9 万亿元。特别国债方面，拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元，比上年增加 3000 亿元），为 ...

2025 年 3 月 12 日 A 股市场凸显韧性，震荡慢牛仍是主基调，短期关注业绩支撑股 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 策 略 晨 报 受特朗普政府关税政策升级、经济衰退预期升温，以及美联储降息预期的反 复等利空因素的影响，美股"黑色星期一"，周一道琼斯指数暴跌 2.08%，纳斯达 克指数重挫 4%，受此影响，全球资本市场遭遇波动。不过，虽然周二沪深三大指 数跳空低开，但 A 股逆势表现下体现出整体的稳定和韧性，三大指数尾盘均红盘 报收。盘面上看，航天航空、农林牧渔等板块逆势走强，内部结构性机会表现不 错。 因此，美股暴跌对 A 股的短期影响主要集中在情绪层面，实际影响有限。中 国经济处于新旧动能转换期，政策储备丰富。财政积极托底经济（今年赤字率拟 按 4%左右安排，比上年提高 1 个百分点。拟安排地方政府专项债券 4.4 万亿元， 比上年增加 5000 亿元。合计新增政府债务总规模 11.86 万亿元，比上年增加 2.9 万亿元。特别国债方面，拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元，比上年增加 3000 亿元），为市场稳定运行筑牢根基。市场震荡慢牛的主基调没变。 不过，鉴 ...

策 略 晨 报 2 月通胀数据疲软，A 股市场窄幅震荡，短期回踩不改中期向好格局 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周一晨报提醒，虽然近期指数表现较好，但仍有多方扰动。首先，外部美联 储降息节奏不确定性、中美关税博弈或阶段性压制风险偏好；其次，技术面上， 沪深三大指数上方可能面临前期密集成交区间的重要阻力，能否突破这一区域将 成为市场的重要看点；最后，财报季的业绩分化。3 月中下旬至 4 月进入年报密 集披露期，企业盈利兑现度将成为试金石。当前市场对 AI 板块的估值已反映预 期，但部分标的业绩能否匹配高估值存在不确定性，需警惕回调风险。消费、医 药等现金流稳定的板块可能因防御属性受到青睐。 市场走势如我们预期，周一沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，两市成交额明显萎缩， 医药等防御性板块走强，人工智能概念股大面积调整。除了周一晨报提醒的因素 之外，市场出现分歧可能还有通胀数据疲软引发的经济预期压力。2 月通胀数据 低于预期，反映出内需修复仍存在不确定性。尽管政策面持续释放稳增长信号， 但通胀低迷可能压制企业盈利预期，数据公布后，人民币汇率承压，加剧了短期 市场波动。因此，虽然短期市场可能面临估值压力以及数据波动预期的 ...

【A 股大势研判】 周一晨报提醒，虽然近期指数表现较好，但仍有多方扰动。首先，外部美联 储降息节奏不确定性、中美关税博弈或阶段性压制风险偏好；其次，技术面上， 沪深三大指数上方可能面临前期密集成交区间的重要阻力，能否突破这一区域将 成为市场的重要看点；最后，财报季的业绩分化。3 月中下旬至 4 月进入年报密 集披露期，企业盈利兑现度将成为试金石。当前市场对 AI 板块的估值已反映预 期，但部分标的业绩能否匹配高估值存在不确定性，需警惕回调风险。消费、医 药等现金流稳定的板块可能因防御属性受到青睐。 市场走势如我们预期，周一沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，两市成交额明显萎缩， 医药等防御性板块走强，人工智能概念股大面积调整。除了周一晨报提醒的因素 之外，市场出现分歧可能还有通胀数据疲软引发的经济预期压力。2 月通胀数据 低于预期，反映出内需修复仍存在不确定性。尽管政策面持续释放稳增长信号， 但通胀低迷可能压制企业盈利预期，数据公布后，人民币汇率承压，加剧了短期 市场波动。因此，虽然短期市场可能面临估值压力以及数据波动预期的变化，但 在多方支撑和提振下，市场中期向好的逻辑和趋势未变，即便市场出现阶段的震 荡调整或仍是整体上 ...