Core Views - The recent market rebound in A-shares is attributed to external factors, particularly the U.S. court's halt on Trump's trade policy, which has raised questions about the sustainability of this rebound [2][8][10] - Despite the short-term rebound, the overall adjustment trend in the A-share market has not been clearly concluded, suggesting a cautious optimism among investors [3][9] Market Overview - On the day of the report, all three major indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened higher and experienced a collective rise, with significant gains in sectors such as digital economy and autonomous driving [4][5] - The total trading volume reached 11,854 billion, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,363.45 points, up 0.70%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10,127.20 points, up 1.24% [5] Sector Analysis - The digital economy sector saw substantial gains, driven by government initiatives and the ongoing development of data-related policies, with expectations for continued growth in this area [6][7] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector also experienced a surge, with a favorable commercial environment and increasing domestic production capabilities, indicating potential for investment in this field [7] Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that while the current market environment shows signs of recovery, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, and the sustainability of the rebound is uncertain [8][9] - Long-term strategies should focus on high-quality stocks with stable performance and reasonable valuations, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, as well as potential mergers and acquisitions [9]

Core Views - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a short-term adjustment due to six factors, including insufficient domestic economic recovery and external uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies and Federal Reserve monetary policy dilemmas [2][7][9] - Despite the short-term downward trend, the report suggests that this may present a mid-term opportunity for low-cost buying and positioning, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the market and increasing liquidity [2][8] Market Overview - On the day of the report, the A-share market saw a collective decline in the three major indices, with the total trading volume falling below 1 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of market confidence [4][5] - The report highlights that sectors such as food and beverage, as well as certain agricultural stocks, showed resilience and upward movement despite the overall market decline [6][7] Sector Analysis - The pesticide and veterinary drug sectors, particularly glyphosate stocks, experienced significant gains due to rising prices and industry consolidation driven by policy and market pressures [6] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from domestic consumption recovery, with potential growth in areas such as the "silver economy" for the elderly and "self-indulgent consumption" among younger consumers [6][7] Investment Strategy - The report advises against impulsive trading and suggests a strategy of high selling and low buying, focusing on high-quality stocks with stable performance and reasonable valuations [3][8] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring sectors like technology growth and consumer recovery, particularly in robotics, semiconductors, and AI, as well as potential opportunities in mergers and acquisitions [3][8]

2025 年 5 月 26 日 短期调整趋势或将延续 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 每 周 投 资 早 参 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 上周五晨报提醒，目前市场依旧面临内外部的压力，外部层面，美国财政困 局逼近推升美债利率上行预期，全球金融系统不确定性增加。内部方面， 4 月公 布的制造业数据重回荣枯线下方，而 4 月人民币贷款不及预期，说明国内经济修 复不强。内忧外患之下，谨防短期调整趋势的延续。市场走势如我们预期，上周 五沪深三大指数集体调整，盘面上看，医药、贵金属等防御性板块走强。 展望后市，短期调整趋势或将延续，当然，这里提到的是短期节奏，若阶段 调整延续，或是中期低吸以及布局的好时机。如果从中期看，政策托底与流动性 宽松仍是主基调。降准释放的万亿资金将逐步流入实体经济，叠加险资入市放宽、 中长期资金引入等政策，市场底部支撑较强，整体向好的趋势相对明显。 操作上，避免盲目追涨杀跌，高抛低吸或是占优策略。对前期涨幅较大的个 股可逐步减持，重点逢低关注业 ...

Core Views - The report indicates that the recent 10 basis points reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is expected to stimulate consumption and economic recovery, which is favorable for the A-share market [3][9][11] - The market is experiencing a collective rise, driven by consumer policies and the anticipation of the 618 shopping festival, particularly benefiting sectors like beauty care and retail chains [3][9][10] A-share Market Analysis - On May 20, the LPR was lowered for the first time this year, with both the 1-year and 5-year LPR down by 10 basis points, alongside a reduction in deposit rates by major banks, signaling further liquidity easing [3][9][11] - The market showed collective gains on Tuesday, with significant activity in beauty care and retail sectors, reflecting a positive response to consumption policies [3][9][10] - Despite the overall market rise, there is a divergence in high-priced stocks, indicating potential volatility and a continuation of a fluctuating market pattern [4][10] Sector Performance - The beauty care sector saw substantial gains, driven by ongoing government support for consumption upgrades and increasing consumer demand for beauty products [7][9] - Consumer stocks remain active, with food and beverage sectors continuing to perform well, suggesting that domestic consumption will be a key driver for economic recovery in 2025 [7][9] - The cultural media sector is also on the rise, with advancements in AI technology benefiting downstream applications in gaming and media, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [8][9] Investment Strategy - The report advises caution against blindly chasing high-performing stocks and suggests gradually reducing positions in stocks that have seen significant gains [4][5] - It emphasizes focusing on high-quality stocks with stable performance and reasonable valuations, particularly in sectors like technology growth and consumer recovery [4][10] - The report highlights the potential for mergers and acquisitions as a theme for investment, recommending early positioning in stocks with restructuring expectations [4][10]

金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 5 月 20 日 短期震荡或将延续，避免盲目追涨杀跌 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 首先，成交量略有欠缺及板块轮动较快。近期量能不足叠加板块轮动较快， 缺乏持续性主线，反映出市场信心不足。 其次，外部环境仍有不确定性。虽然中美经贸声明虽远超预期，但并不意味 着关税影响就此终结。事实上，后续关税谈判仍需持续推进，可能还存在诸多变 数。 再次，技术面的压力。3400 点作为前期密集成交区，积累了不少套牢盘，与 此同时，周三大金融拉升下市场成交额并未明显放大，反映出投资者追涨意愿不 足。 最后，当前市场的核心影响因素在于国内基本面。4 月公布的制造业数据重 回荣枯线下方，而 4 月人民币贷款不及预期，1-4 月全国房地产开发投资同比下 降 10.3%，国内基本面修复动能尚需发力。尽管关税有所下调，但目前关税比例 依然较高，对经济仍存在一定影响。若后续经济数据表现平稳，市场有望得到更 好提振；但倘若经济数据平淡，市场压力可能依旧存 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has successfully recovered from the significant drop caused by the "reciprocal tariff" policy announced in early April 2025, with major indices regaining previous lows by May 14, 2025[3][20] - The recovery was primarily driven by policy stimulus and emotional repair, resulting in a "V-shaped reversal" in the indices, but the market now faces a lack of new catalysts and potential short-term adjustments[3][20] Market Sentiment and Trends - Recent market behavior shows rapid rotation among sectors such as military, shipping, finance, and beauty care, indicating insufficient market confidence and a preference for short-term speculation[4][20] - The external environment remains uncertain, with ongoing tariff negotiations that could introduce further volatility despite recent positive developments in US-China trade relations[4][20] Technical and Economic Factors - The 3400-point level has become a significant resistance area, accumulating many trapped positions, and recent financial sector rallies did not lead to a substantial increase in trading volume, reflecting weak investor enthusiasm[4][22] - Domestic economic indicators, such as the manufacturing PMI dropping to 49% in April and lower-than-expected RMB loans, suggest that economic recovery is not robust, which could continue to exert pressure on the market[4][22] Investment Strategy - The market is entering a traditional "performance vacuum" period, lacking earnings data guidance and facing strong selling pressure from profit-taking and cautious sentiment[5][20] - Investors are advised to avoid blind chasing of price increases and to focus on sector rotation, employing a strategy of buying low and selling high[5][23]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 缩量上涨释放何种信号？后市将如何演绎？乐观情绪与谨慎态度并存 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周三，央行、证监会、金融监管总局联合推出"一揽子金融政策"，虽然周 三沪深三大指数集体上涨，但涨幅一般。周四沪深三大指数继续集体上涨，但两 市成交额较前一日出现萎缩。缩量上涨释放出何种信号？一是政策利好已被部分 消化，场外资金仍处于观望状态，尚未大规模入场；二是板块轮动节奏加快。周 三人工智能及半导体等科技股下跌，周四银行等板块表现不错。这表明市场对高 估值品种的担忧依然存在，低估值板块则出现资金回流的现象。 另外，缩量上涨之下市场将如何演绎？一方面，短期或震荡蓄势，等待政策 效果验证。从整体来看，政策组合拳对流动性的中长期利好尚未完全释放，降准 释放的 1 万亿元资金将逐步流入实体经济和资本市场，有望为市场带来提振。不 过，市场走势还需密切关注经济数据表现。另一方面，政策加码预期或推动二次 冲高。在一揽子政策框架下，更多政策细则有望逐步出台。如果后续政策超预期， 可能吸引增量资金入场，推动指数继续上冲。不过，市场也存在阶段的技术性调 整 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a series of favorable policies announced by the central bank and regulatory authorities, including interest rate cuts and increased liquidity measures, which have led to a mixed performance in the A-share market [2][8][9] - The market's reaction to these policies has been subdued, attributed to factors such as prior anticipation of these measures, external geopolitical tensions, and a shift in investor sentiment towards defensive sectors like military and real estate [3][9][10] - The report suggests that the market may enter a period of observation regarding the effectiveness of these policies, with key variables including the pace of liquidity release and developments in US-China trade negotiations [3][10] Group 2 - The military sector has shown significant gains, driven by geopolitical tensions and government support for defense modernization, with expectations of continued policy backing and a stable increase in defense budgets from 2020 to 2025 [6][7] - The real estate sector is also highlighted as active, with recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the housing market, including a reduction in housing loan rates, which may provide short-term boosts to the industry [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting quality companies within the military and real estate sectors, particularly those with strong fundamentals and growth potential, while being cautious of broader market risks [6][7][10]

A 股走出独立行情，后市上行仍面临压力，采取防守叠加进攻的平衡策 略 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二 A 股延续反弹态势，沪指盘中一度收复 3300 点整数关口，但尾盘未能 守住。A 股在政策预期强化、内资护盘及部分行业景气度回升的支撑下走出独立 行情。不过，近期两市成交额在万亿附近，仍属于阶段地量水平。 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 4 月 23 日 后市上行仍面临压力。建议投资者不要盲目追涨，在此期间，仍可采取防守 叠加进攻的平衡策略。防御方向，可关注高股息、消费等方向。而进攻还是成长 主线，逢低可继续关注半导体、AI 算力及政策受益的新质生产力方向。 后市密切关注贸易谈判的情况。若双方能够通过谈判缓解紧张局势，市场信 心将得到较大提振，反之则可能继续承压。后续还要关注国内政策的对冲力度。 投资者普遍等待 4 月底重要会议对经济形势的研判及政策部署，其中对经济以及 对资本市场的进一步政策预期，或成为中期行情的催化剂。 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huix ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high in this round of rebound, despite a trading volume just above 1 trillion, indicating a low level of activity [2][4][9] - Factors contributing to the market's resilience include policy support and capital backing, with state-owned funds increasing their holdings in ETFs, alleviating liquidity concerns among investors [2][9] - Market sentiment is recovering, with structural differentiation observed, as sectors like domestic consumption (duty-free, food and beverage), defensive sectors (banking, gold), and self-sufficient fields (military industry, semiconductors) attract investor interest [2][9] Sector Performance - The precious metals sector experienced significant gains, driven by heightened market risk aversion due to global tariff issues, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [6] - Digital economy stocks were active, with sectors such as remote work and digital taxation showing promise, as China's digital economy is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years [6] - The robotics industry also saw substantial growth, with notable increases in stock prices since early January, supported by strong internal growth momentum and favorable government policies [7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that investors should focus on three main lines for low-cost positioning: self-sufficient fields (semiconductors, AI computing), domestic consumption (pharmaceuticals, food and beverage), and high-dividend sectors (state-owned enterprises, public utilities) [10] - The upcoming important meetings at the end of April are anticipated to provide further policy direction, which could act as a catalyst for mid-term market trends [4][10] - Despite the current rebound, the sustainability of this trend is questioned due to insufficient trading volume and the potential for adjustments in stocks lacking performance support during the earnings disclosure period [3][9]