策 略 晨 报 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 分析师：郑罡 执业证书编号：S0990511010001 电话：0755-83000291 邮箱：zhenggang@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 金点策略晨报 2025 年 2 月 6 日 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 外部不确定性引发投资者对国内经济需求增长的关注，A 股部分蓝筹板块出 现阶段回吐走势。在外需增长面临不确定性的背景下，内需提振的要求或更为强 烈，投资者可关注全国两会在科技创新、消费刺激等方面的政策预期，财政政策 在促内需、稳地产的积极作用。此外，中长期资金入市有望改善蓝筹股市场资金 供求，促进相关板块交易活跃及估值提升，投资者也可关注相关品种业绩披露后 的估值修复机会。 人工智能创新技术的发展必然有其不断迭代升级优化提升的过程，逐步由初 创走向成熟，相关领域的竞争激烈。投资者可关注其上下游产业受益该项技术发 展所获得的成长机会，尤其是最优的新技术、新模型对相关行业公司的拉动作用， 也需警惕被迭代优化的旧技术模型的市场风险。 节后首日 A 股出现价值股调整而成长股活跃的结构性行情，外贸不确定性引 发蓝筹股调整，人工智能大模型的创新技术带 ...

Core Views - The A-share market is experiencing short-term adjustments, particularly in the chip and artificial intelligence sectors, due to the performance of DeepSeek's AI model, which is comparable to OpenAI but at a lower cost, leading to potential adjustments in profit expectations for related companies [2][5] - High-dividend stocks such as banks and coal are seeing a rebound, possibly due to a shift in market preferences towards value stocks as growth stocks undergo corrections [5][9] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to gradually improve post-holiday, supported by counter-cyclical policies and the return of long-term capital to the market, enhancing the resilience of the A-share market [3][9] A-share Market Analysis - On the last trading day after the holiday, the A-share market showed a decline, with 1,814 stocks rising and 3,417 falling. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,250.60 points, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 450.23 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,156.07 points, down 1.33%, with a trading volume of 667.64 billion yuan [4][5] - The manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 49.1%, indicating a decline from the previous month, attributed to the early timing of the Spring Festival and increased external uncertainties [6][9] Sector Insights - The manufacturing sector is facing short-term impacts due to holiday factors, but recovery is anticipated as production resumes and counter-cyclical policies take effect, potentially leading to a rebound in macroeconomic demand [3][6] - The high-tech sector, particularly artificial intelligence, is under scrutiny for its initial development uncertainties and high valuation pressures, necessitating careful evaluation by investors [5][9] Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a plan to promote the high-quality development of index investment in the capital market, aiming to enhance the scale and proportion of index investment and improve the long-term returns for investors [9]

Core Views - The ongoing "Trump effect" may impact the global economic order, leading to potential economic slowdown, with defensive assets like gold remaining favored [2][4][5] - The national team continues to stabilize the market, as reflected in the fourth-quarter fund reports, which show increased holdings in broad-based ETFs like the CSI A500 [7][8] A-Share Market Analysis - On a recent trading day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced slight adjustments, with 1,032 stocks rising and 4,261 falling. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,213.62 points, down 29 points, a decline of 0.89%, with a trading volume of 452.31 billion yuan [4] - The real estate sector faced limitations on short-term rebounds due to a downgrade in credit ratings for a leading property company, while the food and beverage sector saw declines primarily due to pressures in the liquor industry [4] - The communication sector showed activity driven by expectations of increased investment in new-generation communication technology infrastructure, alongside the growth of data centers and artificial intelligence [4] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on active opportunities in gold and other precious metals, as well as low-positioning high-dividend stocks, while trading investors should consider emerging industries like chip design, new-generation communication technology, and artificial intelligence, which are expected to benefit from policy-driven performance growth [2][8] - The recent increase in financing balances in the margin trading business indicates growing investor confidence, despite a recent market adjustment [7]

Core Views - The report highlights that sectors such as communication, computer, electronics, non-bank financials, and machinery equipment have shown active performance, primarily driven by the AI investment wave and increasing demand for AI infrastructure [2][6] - It is suggested that investors pay attention to leading companies in relevant sub-industries and those with core technologies, as the low-orbit satellite internet system is expected to start testing in 2025 [6] - The brokerage sector has also shown signs of recovery, attributed to the influx of medium to long-term funds, which is expected to enhance the capital market's prosperity [6] A-share Market Analysis - Last week, the A-share market saw a rebound with 3,956 stocks rising, 1,226 falling, and 211 remaining unchanged. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,252.63 points, up 0.70%, with a trading volume of 480.685 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,292.73 points, up 1.15%, with a trading volume of 741.332 billion yuan [5] - The report notes that the sectors experiencing a pullback include oil and petrochemicals, food and beverages, coal, construction materials, and defense industries, primarily due to uncertainties in domestic demand growth [7] Economic Policy Impact - The report anticipates that counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies will positively impact demand in the aforementioned sectors, suggesting that investors should monitor the implementation of related policies for potential growth opportunities [7] - The strengthening of the RMB against the USD is also seen as beneficial for A-share performance, with expectations of a continued upward trend in the market [9][10]

Core Views - The report indicates that favorable policies are expected to attract significant medium- to long-term capital into the A-share market, although the pace and strategy of this capital influx will still depend on market performance and macroeconomic conditions [2][8] - The A-share market is anticipated to shift from a speculative environment characterized by high volatility to a more stable trend focused on long-term value investment [2][8] Market Analysis - On the trading day analyzed, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a rise and subsequent fall, with a total of 2,334 A-shares rising and 2,795 falling. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,230.16 points, up 16.54 points (0.51%), with a trading volume of 539.80 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,176.17 points, down 49.70 points (0.49%), with a trading volume of 815.48 billion yuan [4][5] - The report highlights that the policy from six ministries aims to promote medium- to long-term capital entering the market, with specific measures including increasing the actual investment ratio and extending assessment periods for institutional investors [4][5][8] Policy Implications - The implementation plan requires public funds to increase their holdings of A-share market value by at least 10% annually over the next three years, which translates to an increase of at least 70 billion yuan in public fund holdings by 2025 [5][7] - Large state-owned insurance companies are expected to allocate 30% of their new premiums to A-share investments starting in 2025, potentially leading to an annual investment scale exceeding 100 billion yuan [5][7] Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the domestic economic development is shifting from being driven by real estate to being supported by government investment and wealth-driven capital market prosperity, which is expected to enhance the overall economic resilience and stability of the A-share market [2][8] - If domestic enterprise investment and consumer sentiment improve by mid-2025, it could lead to a significant increase in medium- to long-term capital inflows, further stabilizing and revitalizing the A-share market [2][8]

Core Views - The upcoming second term of Trump as US President introduces uncertainties in US-China relations, which may impact the domestic economy and A-share market [2][10] - The A-share market has shown signs of stabilization, benefiting from positive macroeconomic policy expectations and increased market stabilization measures, with a potential for continued rebound in the future [2][10] A-share Market Analysis - On a recent trading day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced narrow fluctuations with a slight increase in trading volume, where 3,613 stocks rose, 1,587 fell, and 186 remained unchanged [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,244.38 points, up 2.56 points (0.08%), with a trading volume of 469.7 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,256.40 points, up 95.07 points (0.94%), with a trading volume of 713.2 billion yuan [4] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 123 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the operation rate at 1.5%, to alleviate short-term borrowing rate pressures ahead of the Spring Festival [5] - The domestic GDP growth rate for 2024 is projected at 5%, indicating a stable economic development trend [5] - The loan market quotation rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, while the domestic interest rate adjustments are still influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [5] Real Estate Market Outlook - The Ministry of Finance plans to promote local special bonds to acquire land and idle properties, which is expected to improve developers' cash flow [10] - The domestic real estate market has shown signs of improvement in sales since Q4 2024, with expectations for continued recovery in 2025 due to anticipated loose monetary policies [10] Sector Performance - The electric power equipment and communication sectors have been active, with significant investments expected in 2025, particularly in optimizing the main grid and supporting high-quality development of renewable energy [8] - The State Grid is expected to invest over 650 billion yuan in 2025, focusing on major projects that enhance infrastructure [8] Corporate Actions and Market Confidence - Over 300 listed companies have announced stock repurchase plans using bank loans, with over 40% of these companies having a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion yuan, indicating a positive effect on market stability and confidence [7] - The recent rise in international oil prices and commodity prices is expected to improve the profitability of state-owned industrial enterprises, potentially supporting stock price recovery [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight pullback on Wednesday but remained within the upward trend established on Tuesday, with new market directions pending further observation [2] - The upcoming U.S. presidential administration's trade protectionism and tariff issues are a focal point of market concern, although domestic economic stability and supportive policies provide a positive outlook for the market [2][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3236.03 points, up 0.28%, with a total trading volume of 12,738 billion [3] Sector Performance - Consumer sectors, particularly home appliances and commercial retail, saw significant gains following government subsidies for energy-efficient appliances, indicating a potential recovery in domestic consumption [4] - The "Xiaohongshu" concept stocks remained active, driven by concerns over TikTok's operational status in the U.S., leading to increased user engagement on Xiaohongshu [5] - High dividend yield stocks, particularly in banking and essential services, showed strong performance, with ongoing interest in stable dividend-paying companies amidst a low-interest-rate environment [6][7] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on quality stocks during market fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of selecting companies with strong fundamentals and stable earnings [8][10] - It is recommended to maintain a balanced portfolio that includes both high-growth small-cap stocks and stable dividend-paying large-cap assets, with an emphasis on opportunistic buying during market dips [9][10]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a short-term fluctuation but maintains a medium-term upward trend, with a strategy of buying high-quality stocks on dips being favored [12][13] - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.73%, and the ChiNext Index saw a gain of 4.66% [4] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed significant gains, driven by favorable government policies and a positive outlook for the industry, with expectations of continued growth in domestic semiconductor production [5][6] - The cultural media sector experienced volatility, with a notable increase earlier in the week followed by a slight adjustment, supported by government measures to promote cultural and tourism consumption [7] - The robotics sector is viewed as a long-term investment opportunity, with strong growth potential driven by increasing global demand and supportive policies [8][9] - The non-ferrous metals sector, including gold, copper, and aluminum, has seen price increases due to inflation expectations and domestic growth policies [9] - The AI theme has gained traction, with significant investment opportunities emerging as AI technology continues to evolve and integrate into various applications [10] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" upward trend in 2025, with structural opportunities prevailing and a balanced allocation between high-growth small-cap stocks and stable dividend core assets being recommended [12]

Core Views - The short-term rebound in the real estate sector is primarily due to a leading company's announcement regarding interest payments on a bond, alleviating market concerns about potential debt defaults [2][5] - The domestic real estate market shows signs of sales recovery, supported by economic stabilization measures implemented in September 2024, which have boosted buyer confidence [2][5] - The Ministry of Finance plans to promote local government special bonds for land and commodity housing purchases in 2025, contributing to a recovery in the real estate market and stabilizing asset prices [2][5] - The high growth cycle of the real estate industry may have passed, suggesting a focus on financially stable and high-quality real estate companies for potential mergers and acquisitions [2][5] - Concerns remain regarding the demand for upstream energy and steel, as the market anticipates uncertainty in real estate investment [2][5] Market Overview - On the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3242.62 points, down 1.76 points, with a trading volume of 468.26 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10305.69 points, up 49.29 points, with a trading volume of 736.97 billion yuan [4] - A total of 1983 A-shares rose, while 3255 fell, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of the holiday [4][7] Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well included electronics, communications, real estate, machinery equipment, and automobiles, while the sectors with the largest declines were oil and petrochemicals, steel, coal, social services, and textiles [4] - The real estate sector showed significant activity, driven by the aforementioned bond payment announcement, which helped stabilize related stock and bond prices [5] Currency and Economic Factors - The recent decline in the US dollar index has led to appreciation in non-US currencies like the yuan and yen, while commodity prices for gold and oil have not seen significant increases [5] - The People's Bank of China has implemented measures to stabilize the exchange rate, which may alleviate depreciation pressure on the yuan and positively impact the A-share market [5]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the recent market surge is attributed to several factors, including technical rebound demand after low trading volumes, regulatory support, and positive sentiment from foreign investment banks regarding the Chinese capital market outlook [1] - The report anticipates a slow bull market in 2025, suggesting that the strategy of buying on dips remains favorable, with a cautious approach during market fluctuations [1][9] Sector Performance - The report highlights that the cultural media sector has shown strong performance, with a 42.75% increase in the first half of 2023, making it the second-best performing sector [5][6] - The report notes that the photovoltaic equipment sector is experiencing a rebound due to recent supply-side reforms aimed at reducing excessive competition and promoting high-quality development [7] Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential of the cultural media sector, particularly in areas such as gaming, short dramas, and interactive entertainment, which are expected to benefit from advancements in AI technology [6] - The report suggests that structural opportunities will dominate the market in 2025, with a balanced allocation between high-growth small-cap stocks and stable dividend core assets being recommended [9]