金点策略晨报—每日报告 2024 年 6 月 28 日 星期五 | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 【A股大势研判】 | | 市场缩量寻底，继续耐心等待 | | 一、周四市场综述 | | 周四晨报提醒，周三指数终于迎来了反弹。上午，市场低位徘徊没有太多起色， 而午后， AI 应用方向个股持续走强，叠加其他科技股的表现，共同激发市场热情，并推 | | | | 动指数回升。反弹能否持续？连续下跌后，目前暂且看做情绪反弹行情处理。从成交上 | | 看，增量不济或许仍是制约反弹高度的重要因素。短期可关注反弹的力度，后期仍需政 策的发力，或许才能刺激情绪以及信心的提升。 7 月重要会议或是阶段的重要看点。短 | | 线投资者适当博弈超跌反弹。稳健投资者仍需继续耐心等待更明确的信号出现。 | | 周四早盘，沪深三大指数集 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations around the 3000-point mark, with a notable rise in the fiscal and tax digitalization concept stocks [1][9] - On July 2, the market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 2997.01 points, up by 2.28 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 86.50 points to 8812.67 points [5][9] - The overall market sentiment remains subdued, with a trading volume of 644.7 billion yuan across both exchanges [5] Key Concepts and Trends - The fiscal and tax digitalization concept has seen significant gains, driven by recent government reports advocating for enhanced tax collection and data sharing [3][6] - The banking sector continues to rise, supported by low valuations and high dividend yields, particularly as concerns over real estate-related asset quality issues begin to stabilize [6][9] - Digital economy stocks are also experiencing a resurgence, with expectations for continued growth in the sector, particularly in areas such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and cloud computing [8][9] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to see a rebound, influenced by anticipated economic reforms and an increase in positive earnings forecasts during the mid-year reporting season [9] - However, the recovery of the domestic economy remains weak, and further policy support is necessary for a broader market improvement [9] - Short-term investors are advised to focus on high-dividend and technology stocks, while more conservative investors should wait for clearer signals before making investment decisions [9]

2 全球与中国宏观经济走势在根本上决定股、债、汇、商等大类资产价格走势，进而对 资本市场产生深远影响。准确研判全球与中国宏观经济走势，是做好大类资产配置的前提 条件，也是在资本市场中取得良好收益的必要基础。 一、美国宏观经济或将承压，首次降息时点大概率落在下半年 作为全球 GDP 占比达 25%左右的第一大经济体，美国经济走势在较大程度上影响全球经 济走势。关于美国经济，目前资本市场关注的焦点有两个：一是包括美国在内的全球宏观 经济是处于去库存阶段，还是处于补库存阶段？二是美联储将在何时启动降息进程？ 针对第一个问题，基于主观判断的"软指标"方面，摩根大通全球制造业 PMI 连续 4 个月位于荣枯线之上，以及美国 Markit 制造业 PMI 连续 5 个月处于扩张区间，欧元区、日 本、英国制造业 PMI 均出现上行走势，尤其是日本、英国制造业 PMI 跃至荣枯线之上，但 是依旧存在利空因素，即美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 连续 2 个月位于荣枯线之下。源于经济实际 运行的"硬指标"方面，1 季度美国不变价 GDP 环比折年率终值录得 1.40%，低于初值 0.20 个百分点，创 2022 年 3 季度以来新 ...

研究员：惠祥凤 执业证书号：S0990513100001 联系电话：0755-83007028 Email：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 全天看，行业方面，交运设备、光学光电子、电机、半导体、通信设备、医疗服 | | 务、贸易、仪器仪表、互联网服务、通信服务、消费电子、电源设备、专用设备、化学 | | 制药等板块跌幅居前；题材股方面，高宽带内存、赛马、次新股、钙钛矿电池、东数西 | | 算等题材股跌幅居前。 | | 整体上，个股涨少跌多，市场情绪萎靡，赚钱效应非常差，两市成交额 6956 | | 元，截止收盘，上证指数报 2963.10 点，下跌 35.04 点，跌幅 1.17% ，总成交额 3185.96 | | 亿；深证成指报 8924.17 点，下跌 140.67 的点，跌幅 1.55% ，总成交额 3770.17 亿；创 | | 业板指报 1731.51 点，下 ...

金点策略晨报—每日报告 2024 年 6 月 5 日 星期三 | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 【A股大势研判】 | | 市场连续调整后，短期有反弹需求，问题公司出清继续 | | 一、周二市场综述 | | 周二晨早短信提醒，周一沪深三大指数涨跌不一，但个股大面积下跌。盘面上看， | | 银行以及有色板块的走低对市场形成拖累，而 ST 板块出现跌停潮以及微盘股集体大跌， | | 也打击了市场情绪。近期，随着指数高位震荡以及重心回落，市场成交本身萎缩。提醒 | | 投资者以下五类股票或被边缘化，尽量要规避：规避披星戴帽的 ST、*ST 股票；规避被 | | 交易所公开谴责、通报批评的股票；规避未在法定期限内披露年报、季报的及财报被出 | | 具无法表示意见或者否定意见的审计报告的；规避主营业务不佳，经营现金流持续为负， | | 靠外延并购重组苟延残喘的股票；规避空壳股票。 | | 周二早盘，沪深三大指数集体低开，随后低开高走，创指盘中一度涨超 1% 。盘面 ...

| --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 【晨早参考短信】 | | | | 在减持新规的利好刺激下，周一沪深三大指数集体上涨，但市场成交依旧低迷。盘 | | 面上看，半导体板块的异动和上周三光伏板块单日拉升较为类似，都是在市场板块轮动 | | | 加快以及短期利好消息提振下脱颖而出的，说明当前市场的主线缺失以及增量资金的匮 | | | 乏。不过，展望后市，无需过分担心，在政策持续加码下，短期大幅下行的风险较低， | | | 市场对于经济全线修复充满期待，后续则需关注月度经济数据以及地产销售数据的恢复 | | | 情况。我们维持近期的观点不变，市场震荡上行仍是主基调。操作上，不追高，逢低布 | | 金点策略晨报—每日报告 2024 年 5 月 28 日 星期二 研究员：惠祥凤 执业证书号：S099051310000 ...

Market Overview - The report indicates that the recent market adjustments do not alter the medium-term upward trend, suggesting that investors should accumulate core assets during dips while avoiding junk stocks [5][9]. - On Tuesday, the major indices in the A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3109.57 points, down 14.47 points or 0.46% [6][12]. - The report highlights a lack of clear market leadership since May, with core assets showing slightly stronger performance amidst rapid sector rotation due to a shortage of incremental capital [11][12]. Sector Analysis - The power and public utility sectors have shown significant gains, driven by new market rules set to take effect on July 1, 2024, which will enhance market transactions for electricity and related services [6][8]. - The semiconductor sector has continued to rise, supported by the establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, which has a registered capital of 344 billion RMB, aimed at upgrading the semiconductor industry [6][13]. - The non-ferrous metals sector has also performed well, buoyed by rising prices in black and colored metals, driven by global manufacturing recovery and domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing growth [8]. Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that there is no need for excessive concern regarding significant market downturns, as the short-term adjustments are not expected to impact the medium-term upward trajectory [9][14]. - Investors are advised to focus on accumulating core assets during market dips, with high-quality blue-chip and growth stocks likely to present the main opportunities moving forward [9][14].

Market Overview - The market is experiencing narrow fluctuations with insufficient trading volume as the main reason [6][8] - Since May, there has been no clear main line in the market, with core assets performing slightly better [6] - The overall sentiment is average, and the profit-making effect is weak, leading to increased selling pressure in the next phase [7] Sector Performance - The photovoltaic battery sector led the market gains, with significant increases in new energy stocks such as photovoltaic equipment, batteries, and energy metals [7] - The report highlights that the Chinese government may invest approximately 6 billion yuan in solid-state battery research, marking an unprecedented initiative in the industry [7] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance due to rising prices in black and non-ferrous metals, driven by global manufacturing recovery and domestic economic policies [7] Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that the market's short-term adjustments will not affect the mid-term upward trend, with expectations of economic improvement as real estate policies are released [8] - Investors are advised to focus on core assets during dips and avoid speculative stocks [8] - The report anticipates a potential rebound in the new energy sector, although individual stock differentiation is expected [7][8]

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen indices showed mixed performance with a downward trend and low trading volume [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3091.68 points, down 19.34 points or 0.62%, with a total turnover of 3184.75 billion [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9384.72 points, down 30.26 points or 0.32%, with a total turnover of 4048.13 billion [4] - The ChiNext Index closed at 1813.15 points, up 2.08 points or 0.11%, with a total turnover of 1797.70 billion [4] - The STAR 50 Index closed up 8.37 points or 1.14%, with a total turnover of 448.08 billion [4] Sector Performance - Semiconductor, space-based internet, 6G, and Beidou navigation sectors led the gains [4] - Basic metals, chicken, civil explosives, and virtual power plant sectors led the losses [4] - The semiconductor sector continued to rise, driven by the establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund III with a registered capital of 3440 billion RMB [4] - The aerospace sector surged following the successful launch of four satellites for the "Tianqi Constellation" [4] - The automotive sector rose due to policies promoting the elimination of old vehicles and the development of new energy vehicles [5] Industry Insights - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund supports the semiconductor industry's upgrade and transformation, particularly in advanced process technologies and high-end equipment manufacturing [4] - The "Tianqi Constellation" aims to achieve global coverage and meet data collection needs across various industries, including forestry, agriculture, emergency response, and smart cities [4] - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from the development of new energy vehicles, with a focus on intelligent driving and domestic substitution [5] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment was low with more declining stocks than advancing ones, and a poor赚钱效应 [4] - The market lacked热点, with only a few sectors like semiconductors and satellites showing strength [5] - The adjustment of the three major indices was consistent, with pressure on the Shanghai Composite Index and adjustments in the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices [5] Future Outlook - Short-term adjustments are due to policy落地 and lack of new提振动力, but the中期震荡上行的格局 remains unchanged [13] - The stabilization of the real estate market is crucial for macroeconomic stability, with expectations of narrowing declines in real estate sales [13] - Investors are advised to focus on core assets and绩优蓝筹及成长股, while avoiding ST stocks and垃圾股 [13]

金点策略晨报—每周报告 2024 年 6 月 3 日 星期一 研究员：惠祥凤 执业证书号：S0990513100001 联系电话：0755-83007028 Email：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 【A股大势研判】 | | | 弱势格局下耐心等待市场企稳，市场走强或需政策进一步发力 | | | 一、上周五市场回顾 不振，板块继续轮动。市场热点匮乏，除半导体及卫星等少数热点走强外，有色、地产 | 周五晨早短信提醒，周四沪深三大指数涨跌不一，市场重心下行，成交依旧萎靡 | | 等板块跌势扩大并进一步蔓延 ...