研究员：惠祥凤 执业证书号：S0990513100001 联系电话：0755-83007028 Email：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 第 1 页 第 2 页 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 【晨早参考短信】 | | | | 资金存量博弈下，市场难以形成反弹共振，周四沪深三大指数集体下跌，创业板以 | | 及深成指继续探底，再次刷新近期调整新低，板块几乎全线飘绿，仅有 | 426 只个股飘红。 | | 两市成交额萎靡不振，不足 6000 | 亿元。短期市场基本面提振动力依然不足，增量资金匮 | | 乏，不过， 3000 点下方的 A 股处于"底部区间"，在 | 7 月三中全会中长期经济改革利好 | | | 的预期牵引之下，指数并没有大幅回调风险。随着中报预告行情的开启以及三中全会的 | | | 临近，对后 ...

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a divergence among the three major indices, with short-term fluctuations and limited trading volume, making it difficult for a rebound to occur [4][13] - On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2982.38 points, down 14.63 points, a decrease of 0.49%, with a total trading volume of 2578.40 billion [9] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8760.43 points, down 52.24 points, a decrease of 0.59%, with a total trading volume of 3225.41 billion [9] Sector Performance - The retail, duty-free, and tourism sectors showed strong performance, with significant gains in commercial retail stocks due to recent policy announcements regarding duty-free allowances for travelers from Hong Kong and Macau [9][10] - The food and beverage sector is also performing well, with some companies entering high dividend lists and being at low valuation levels, indicating a potential investment opportunity [9][10] - The real estate sector saw a surge following the central bank's policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing the housing market, including reductions in down payment ratios and mortgage rates [10] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to explore opportunities in stocks with expected earnings growth for the first half of the year, particularly in the context of upcoming mid-year reports and the Third Plenary Session [11] - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend and technology stocks for short-term trading, while more conservative investors should wait for clearer signals before making significant investments [8][11] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the market as concerns diminish, particularly with the rebound of low-priced stocks, which may positively impact the ChiNext and Shenzhen Component indices [11]

金点策略晨报—每周报告 2024 年 7 月 8 日 星期一 第 1 页 第 3 页 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 【A股大势研判】 | | | 3000 点下方空间有限，关注中报预增股机会 一、上周五市场回顾 | | | 周五晨报中提醒，资金存量博弈下，市场难以形成反弹共振，短期市场基本面提 | | | 振动力依然不足，增量资金匮乏，不过， 3000 点下方的 A | 股处于"底部区间"，在 7 月 | | 三中全会中长期经济改革利好的预期牵引之下，指数并没有大幅回调风险。随着中报预 | | | 告行情的开启以及三中全会的临近，对后市无需过分悲观。稳健投资者可耐心等待主要 | | | 指数整体止跌以及市场赚 ...

研究员：惠祥凤 执业证书号：S0990513100001 联系电话：0755-83007028 Email：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 深证成指报 8561.95 点，下跌 133.60 点，跌幅 1.54% ，总成交额 3111.39 亿；创业板指 | | 报 1628.76 点，下跌 26.83 点，跌幅 1.62% ，总成交额 1427.51 亿；科创 50 指报 692.49 | | 点，下跌 6.36 点，跌幅 0.91% ，总成交额 392.04 亿。 | | 二、周一盘面点评 一是银行股力挺指数。周一银行股力挺指数，无奈独木难支。上半年银行股走强 | | 明显强于大盘。首先，此前市场担心房地产引发的资产质量问题，给予较低估值，如果 | | 房地产市场阶段性企稳，对银行业的风险偏好可能回升，从而推动估值回升；其次，银 | | 行股的股息率较 ...

金点策略晨报—每日报告 2024 年 7 月 10 日 星期三 第 1 页 | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 的增长，中国半导体行业市场规模持续扩大，大基金在其中发挥了重要作用。预计未来 | | 我国半导体产业自立是长期必然趋势，半导体产业相关政策支持力度或将加大并逐步落 | | 地。目前半导体产业国产替代趋势开始显现，预计未来半导体的国产替代趋势不可逆， | | 并有望从芯片设计继续渗透至上游设备领域，设备有望迎来国产份额上升。对于半导体 | | 板块来说，景气的回升叠加政策的预期之下，板块增长值得期待，中期或仍是逢低配置 | | 的好时机。建议重点关注国产替代或有细分增长的企业。 | | 三是证券板块大涨。消息面上，为响应监管要求，再有券商出手应对违规融券交 | | 易。某证券公司周二向客户发送短信，其中提到，为落实证监会严禁向利用融券实施日 | | 内回转交易（变相 T+0 交易）的投资者提供融券服务要求，公司拟于 7 ...

市场指数走势 （最近2年|2022/7/19-2024/7/19） 研究员：游虎 执业编号：S0990523060001 电话：0755-83007019 E-mail：youhu@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 电力能源行业周报（2024.07.15-2024.07.21） 2024.7.24 核心观点 指数表现：截至2024/7/19收盘，本周沪深300上涨1.92%，中信电力及公用事业指数上涨 0.97%，落后沪深300指数0.95pct，中信电力设备及新能源指数上涨1.84%，落后沪深300指 数0.08pct。 行业表现：本周在30个中信一级行业中，电力及公用事业指数本周涨跌幅为0.97%，排第9 -3.58%、-3.18%。 位；电力设备及新能源指数本周涨跌幅为1.84%，排第5位。中信三级行业，电力能源相关 子板块中，太阳能指数、锂电池指数、水电指数涨幅位列前三位，分别为4.84%、4.38%、 4.25%；核电指数、车用电机电控指数、电池综合服务指数涨幅位列后三位，分别为-5.00%、 电力工业运行：2024年6月，全社会用电量为8205亿千瓦时，同比5.86%；2024年1-6月，全 社会 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a lack of momentum for recovery, with the need for policy support to stimulate market confidence and sentiment [1][11] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3000 points, impacting market sentiment and leading to widespread declines across sectors [1][2] - Despite the current weak market conditions, there is no systemic risk anticipated due to overall fundamental support [1][5] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector, influenced by a significant drop in the US market, has seen declines in A-shares, but there are expectations for growth due to improving conditions and policy support [2][9] - Real estate stocks surged following government initiatives to purchase existing properties for affordable housing, indicating potential short-term boosts for the sector [4] - Industrial mother machine stocks also saw significant gains, driven by government focus on enhancing technology and addressing supply chain issues [4][14] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, waiting for stabilization signals before making significant investments [5][11] - Long-term strategic investors are encouraged to consider low-dividend high-yield stocks and undervalued technology growth stocks during this period of market adjustment [5][11]

Group 1: Defense Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of weapon modernization and innovation in defense technology, predicting increased policy support for the military industry. From 2020 to 2024, China's defense budget is expected to grow at rates of 6.6%, 6.8%, 7.1%, 7.2%, and 7.2% respectively, indicating stable growth in military spending [3] - Benefiting from accelerated national defense construction, military enterprises have seen significant performance improvements since 2020, with full order books [3] - The report highlights the impact of international geopolitical complexities, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict, which may lead to a concentration of state capital in the defense sector. Key areas to watch include aviation, military weapons, defense informatization, shipbuilding, and new military materials [3] Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector has recently shown resilience, supporting market indices. Concerns over asset quality related to real estate have led to lower valuations, but a stabilization in the real estate market could improve risk appetite for banks, potentially driving up valuations [3] - High dividend yields in a low-interest-rate environment make bank stocks attractive for investors. Recent disclosures of significant share purchases by major banks indicate strong institutional interest [3] Group 3: Power Sector Dynamics - The power sector has demonstrated strong performance, with recent government initiatives aimed at ensuring electricity supply and safety during peak demand periods. The report notes frequent news of price increases in public utilities, suggesting a favorable environment for high-dividend stocks [3] - The report anticipates that state-owned monopolistic industries, such as electricity, water, gas, and transportation, will be favored due to their superior dividend scales and sustainability [3] Group 4: AI and Technology Trends - The report discusses the recent surge in AI-related stocks, driven by advancements in generative AI technologies and applications. The launch of new AI models by major companies like Apple signifies a shift towards AI integration across various sectors [5] - Despite a recent adjustment in AI stocks, the report suggests that the sector may enter a phase of genuine investment as companies demonstrate real earnings contributions from AI applications [5] Group 5: Industrial Machinery Sector - The industrial machinery sector has seen increased activity, particularly in response to government initiatives aimed at enhancing technological research and development in critical areas such as integrated circuits and industrial machinery [5][6] - The report identifies industrial machinery as a sector likely to benefit from policy support, aligning with national goals for self-sufficiency and manufacturing upgrades [6]

| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | 【A股大势研判】 | | | AI 概念大涨，市场强力反弹，后市能否持续？ | | | 一、周三市场综述 周三晨报提醒，周二 A | 股半导体板块等科技股的走低，拖累了市场，沪深三大指 | | 数继续下滑。对于半导体板块来说，景气的回升叠加政策的预期之下，板块增长值得期 | | | 待，中期或仍是逢低配置的好时机。当前，国内宏观基本面修复还不强，有效需求依旧 | | | 不足，市场基本面提振动力依然缺失，后期仍需政策的发力，或许才能刺激情绪以及信 | | | 心的提升。 7 | 月重要会议或是阶段的重要看点。随着成交量的极度萎缩，也需留意指数 | | 随时反弹的可能。稳健投资者，仍需 ...

金点策略晨报—每日报告 2024 年 7 月 2 日 星期二 第 1 页 | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 在不断拓宽。 | | 三是银行股继续上涨。近期银行板块走强拉升力挺指数。首先，此前市场担心房 | | 地产引发的资产质量问题，给予较低估值，如果房地产市场阶段性企稳，对银行业的风 | | 险偏好可能回升，从而推动估值回升；其次，银行股的股息率较高，在目前利率较低的 | | 环境下具有投资吸引力；最后，近期几大银行纷纷披露汇金增持情况，近半年汇金对四 | | 家国有大行增持股份超 10 亿股。综上所述，高股息率以及较低的估值下，未来业绩整体 | | 平稳的预期，或是银行股得到资金持续关注的重要原因。 | | 四是电力等公用事业板块表现偏强。周一电力、燃气等公用板块上涨。近来公用 | | 事业涨价消息频繁。我们认为，低利率的环境中，能够提供稳定的高股息的红利股难能 | | 可贵。从行业看，银行、石油石化、高速公路或港口营运等行业的高股 ...