证券研究报告 | 公司研究报告 可选消费 | 汽车 | | | 投资评级（推荐） 绿源集团控股(2451.HK) 2025 年05 月29 日 电动两轮车行业元老品牌，全场景轻出行方案引领者 ❑ 核心摘要 | 证券分析师 | | --- | Head of TMT Research Chan Kwok Keung SFC 持牌号：BUL892 winson.chan@usmarthk.com 盈利预测 | 财务摘要 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(亿元) | 50.72 | 60.2 | 73.2 | 88.5 | | YoY | -0.22% | 18.69% | 21.59% | 20.90% | | 归母净利润(亿元) | 1.16 | 1.75 | 3.23 | 4.58 | | YoY | -20.29% | 50.86% | 84.57% | 41.80% | | EPS (元/股) | 0.29 | 0.41 | 0.76 | 1.07 | | PE | 25.72 | 17.49 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司研究报告 可选消费 | 汽车 ❑ 核心摘要 | 证券分析师 | | --- | Head of TMT Research Chan Kwok Keung SFC 持牌号：BUL892 winson.chan@usmarthk.com 盈利预测 | 财务摘要 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(亿元) | 50.72 | 60.2 | 73.2 | 88.5 | | YoY | -0.22% | 18.69% | 21.59% | 20.90% | | 归母净利润(亿元) | 1.16 | 1.75 | 3.23 | 4.58 | | YoY | -20.29% | 50.86% | 84.57% | 41.80% | | EPS (元/股) | 0.29 | 0.41 | 0.76 | 1.07 | | PE | 25.72 | 17.49 | 9.48 | 6.68 | 资料来源：公司数据、盈立证券预测 1 | | | 投资评级（推荐） 绿源集团控股(2451.HK) 2025 ...

继此次获奖，绿源已五次荣获中国轻工业联合会颁发的科学技术奖，充分印证了绿源研发驱动的成长逻 辑。当行业其他企业纷纷聚焦产品外观迭代时，绿源始终将资源聚焦于核心技术研发。例如，液冷电 机、数字化电池养护技术等创新均源于对底层技术难题的攻克，而非表面设计优化。这种战略选择使其 在行业同质化竞争中形成了显著的差异化优势。 创立近三十年来，公司不仅见证了中国电动两轮车行业的崛起，还为这种常见出行工具赋予了深厚的科 技内涵。在耐用性方面，公司全球首创液冷电机，显著减少电机动力衰减，质保十年。除了液冷电机 外，公司还创新性推出数字化电池养护技术，打破低温续航梏，提高安全性。在智能化方面，公司通过 安全驾驶系统和智能互联系统，为电动两轮车增加防侧滑、陡坡缓降控制、全场景智能骑行、智能车锁 与定位等功能，大幅提升人机交互体验。 本次获奖的"基于中置动力系统的运动健身电动自行车" ，正是一种应用于电助力自行车的核心零部 件。中置电机技术存在诸多问题，如电机高温性能衰减、寿命短、损耗大、噪音高，以及国外专利垄断 的 "卡脖子" 状况，导致产品价格高企，可靠性和用户体验有待提升。针对传统中置电机采用风冷散 热，散热效率低且高温下易 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 绿源集团控股(2451.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 骆峥 轻工制造行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525020001 邮 箱： luozheng1@cindasc.com 邓健全 汽车行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525010002 邮 箱： dengjianquan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 绿源集团控股：电动两轮车稳健增长，积极布 局新成长曲线 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 26 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 2024 年年报。24 年公司实现收入 50.72 亿元（-0.2%）， 归母净利润 1.17 亿 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 绿源集团控股(2451.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 骆峥 轻工制造行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525020001 邮 箱： luozheng1@cindasc.com 邓健全 汽车行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525010002 邮 箱： dengjianquan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 绿源集团控股：电动两轮车稳健增长，积极布 局新成长曲线 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 26 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 2024 年年报。24 年公司实现收入 50.72 亿元（-0.2%）， 归母净利润 1.17 亿 ...

Technological Innovation and R&D - Luyuan Group Holding has over 700 patents as of December 31, 2024, indicating a strong focus on technological advancement in the electric two-wheeler industry[6]. - R&D expenses increased significantly, focusing on smart technology, digital technology, and health-related technologies, indicating strategic investments for future growth[20]. - The company's R&D expenses increased by approximately 22.1% from RMB 189.4 million in 2023 to RMB 231.2 million in 2024, with a focus on enhancing vehicle durability, safety, battery life, and smart features[37]. - The company is focusing on three growth curves: durable technology, battery and endurance innovations, and smart technology, with 80% of its product line now incorporating smart technology[24]. - The R&D focus includes the development of a digital battery maintenance system that significantly improves product reliability and user satisfaction under low-temperature conditions[23]. - The company is committed to enhancing its core technology capabilities, focusing on improving thermal management and low-temperature performance of its digital battery management system[46]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence through strategic appointments and a focus on technological advancements in its product offerings[121]. Production Capacity and Manufacturing - The annual production capacity of Luyuan Group's electric two-wheelers exceeds 5 million units, with plans to increase capacity to 2 million units per year by 2026 at the new factory in Chongqing[6]. - The construction of a new production facility in Chongqing is progressing steadily, which is expected to boost production capacity significantly by 2026[6]. - The Chongqing smart manufacturing plant began trial operations in November 2024, expected to have an annual production capacity of 2 million units once fully operational[39]. - The Chongqing manufacturing base, featuring the highest level of intelligence, was completed and put into operation, enhancing production capacity and product quality[22]. - Capital expenditures increased by approximately 113.2% from RMB 203.3 million in 2023 to RMB 433.4 million in 2024, primarily aimed at expanding production capacity[83]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was approximately RMB 5,072 million, a slight decrease of about 0.2% from RMB 5,083 million in 2023, demonstrating resilience in a challenging market environment[20]. - The net profit for 2024 was RMB 116.1 million, down approximately 20.3% from RMB 145.6 million in 2023, primarily due to increased share-based payment and R&D expenses[20]. - The company's gross profit for 2024 was RMB 665 million, a decrease of about 2.4% from RMB 681.2 million in 2023, with a gross margin of 13.1%, reflecting strong cost control and pricing capabilities[20]. - The total assets of the company reached RMB 4,324 million in 2024, up from RMB 3,862 million in 2023, indicating growth in overall financial health[17]. - The group's revenue for 2024 was RMB 5,072.0 million, a slight decrease of approximately 0.2% compared to RMB 5,083.0 million in 2023[53]. - The group's gross profit decreased by approximately 2.4% from RMB 681.2 million in 2023 to RMB 665.0 million in 2024[58]. - The group's gross margin remained relatively stable at 13.4% in 2023 and 13.1% in 2024[59]. Market Presence and Distribution - The company has established a distribution network with over 1,400 distributors covering 328 cities across 31 provincial-level administrative regions, and has more than 12,800 offline retail stores[6]. - The company maintained its market leadership and brand influence, with a record number of dealers and retail outlets in 2024[22]. - The company is strategically expanding into international markets, particularly Southeast Asia and Europe, to diversify revenue sources and enhance brand influence[26]. - The company expanded its international business by adding 66 new international clients and entering 7 new countries during the reporting period[42]. - The electric bicycle market is projected to grow from USD 35 billion in 2024 to USD 62 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 10%[49]. Corporate Governance and Management - The company has a strong management team with extensive industry experience and qualifications[112]. - The board consists of four executive directors and four independent non-executive directors, ensuring compliance with corporate governance standards[135]. - The company has fully complied with the corporate governance code during the reporting period, maintaining high standards of governance[129]. - The board has established four committees: Audit Committee, Remuneration Committee, Nomination Committee, and Strategic and Investment Committee to oversee specific aspects of governance[132]. - The company has implemented strict internal management measures to uphold ethical standards, transparency, accountability, and integrity[129]. - The company has established a talent management and training program aimed at providing career development opportunities for female employees[142]. Strategic Initiatives and Future Plans - The company aims to transform from an electric vehicle manufacturer to a provider of comprehensive light mobility solutions, emphasizing product and business model innovation[29]. - The company plans to prioritize the development of high-end electric bicycles and expand into electric mobility ecosystem services by 2025[45]. - The company aims to enhance its core technology capabilities, focusing on improving thermal management and low-temperature performance of its digital battery management system[46]. - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation towards smart manufacturing, implementing automation and digital twin technology to improve quality consistency and reduce production costs[47]. - The company has committed to a 10-year warranty on its products, ensuring 100% coverage of durable technology from entry-level to high-end flagship products[23]. Employee and Gender Diversity - Employee headcount rose to 3,085 as of December 31, 2024, compared to 2,906 a year earlier, with total employee expenses increasing by approximately 4.0% to RMB 497.4 million[85]. - As of December 31, 2024, the gender ratio among employees is approximately 35% female and 65% male, indicating a commitment to gender diversity[142]. - The board has established measurable goals to enhance gender diversity, including actively seeking qualified female candidates for board positions[140]. - The company has implemented appropriate recruitment and selection procedures to promote diversity among job applicants[142]. Awards and Recognition - The company has received multiple industry awards, including first-class awards for technological inventions in electric vehicle technology[103]. - The company is recognized as a pioneer in new productive forces by financial media in 2024[105].

最近，中国两轮电动车江湖风云再起——绿源在天津展首日公布了以"全场景轻出行"为着力方向的全新 战略，这意味着这位深耕行业28载的"开拓者"，正式开启一场品牌战略升维的跨越。 在行业深陷内卷、新国标"靴子"落地在即、洗牌预期加剧等复杂的背景之下，如何在适应新秩序的同 时，摆脱内卷、谋求增量，找到下一个"新大陆"？成为中国两轮电动车品牌生存发展不得不思考的问 题。 如今看来，绿源已有自己的答案。 一、战略升维：从"产品"到"生态"的范式革命 1、从"制造商"向"生态服务商"跃迁 按照官方给出的解释，绿源所提出的"全场景轻出行方案"是以用户为中心，围绕用户生活的各个场景， 通过场景化的产品矩阵和生态化的服务体系，为用户打造的一套全方位、一体化的出行解决方案。 对此，从场景化的产品矩阵到生态化的服务体系再到背后的关键技术支撑，绿源进行了全面布局。这也 标志着中国电动两轮车行业将从单纯的"卖车"模式向提供"硬件+软件+服务"一体化解决方案的生态服务 商转变。 2、构建金字塔式盈利模型，打开增长天花板+价值重估可期 ( 来源：公开资料 ) "在过去的28年里，我们多次提及战略转型，但这一次，我认为是真正的战略转型"。绿源 ...

为迎接新国标，公司已经做好了符合新国标的新车型、新材料、新工艺储备，根据"8+3"过渡期的设 置，提前安排好了产品切换的节奏。在产能方面，2024年，公司浙江、广西、山东三大智造基地均入选 工信部"白名单"，重庆新基地（规划产能200万台/年）已于2025年初投产，为市占率提升提供保障。 面对传统两轮电动车市场增量放缓的行业态势，公司以技术创新驱动产品迭代升级，于2024年底正式推 出高端智能出行品牌LYVA，战略进军以电助力车为代表的两轮车高端市场。依托28年深耕两轮电动车 领域的技术沉淀，公司自主研发的液冷中置电机性能达到国际一流水平，配合全碳纤维车架与符合人体 工学的时尚设计，成功打造了集智能动力、轻量化结构与美学设计于一体的标杆旗舰产品。 业内人士分析，2025年将是两轮电动车行业的分水岭，新国标和全产业链整治推动行业快步走向规范 化，以旧换新、"8+3"过渡期政策刺激需求释放，经营规范的头部厂商将享受份额扩张和需求增长的双 重红利。公司在主业份额扩张的同时，高端电助力车将开辟第二成长曲线。电动车生态进一步打开发展 空间，多轮驱动公司走上高速增长之路。 （文章来源：证券日报） 本报讯 （记者矫月） 2 ...

行业认为，这一战略的发布，标志着绿源集团控股在行业存量竞争时代率先打破战略桎梏，探索两轮出 行生态化布局的新篇章。 绿源集团控股副总裁倪博原介绍："未来的竞争是场景覆盖能力、技术渗透率与服务生态完整度的综合 较量，在这种竞争格局下，企业需要兼顾产品品质、场景适配和服务能力，才能更好满足市场需求。" 绿源集团控股的战略升级并非偶然，而是对行业结构性变革的主动回应。在政策层面，"新国标"实施带 来的产品更新需求仍在持续释放。技术迭代方面，如物联网、AI算法、数字化电池、液冷电机等核心 技术的快速成熟与规模化商用，正逐步将电动车从传统的"机械代步工具"转变为"智能移动终端"。消费 市场方面，用户对产品智能化与使用便利性的关注度持续提升，智能化功能、多场景适配性、服务生态 完善度成为重要关注点。 在场景化产品矩阵方面，绿源集团控股研发了多款产品，以满足用户的多元化需求。例如，在运动场 景，绿源集团控股开发了更加适合户外健康出行的LYVA品牌。随着全新战略的发布，绿源集团控股也 将从单一品牌运营转变为"一主多元复合品牌架构"。 此外，绿源集团控股的全球市场布局稳步推进，产品远销至80个国家和地区，已实现全场景应用。20 ...

Financial Performance - The annual profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 116.1 million, a decrease of approximately 20.3% year-on-year[3]. - The annual profit excluding share-based payment expenses was RMB 154.0 million, down about 5.9% compared to the previous year[3]. - Total revenue for the year was RMB 5,071.96 million, slightly down from RMB 5,082.98 million in 2023[4]. - Gross profit for the year was RMB 665.01 million, compared to RMB 681.24 million in 2023, reflecting a decrease[4]. - Operating profit for the year was RMB 110.17 million, down from RMB 140.39 million in the previous year[4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) decreased to RMB 0.30 from RMB 0.43 in the previous year[4]. - The company reported a total tax expense of RMB 9,363,000 for 2024, compared to RMB 5,533,000 in 2023, indicating an increase of 69.5%[26]. - The company’s total financial costs remained stable at RMB 21,983,000 in 2024, slightly down from RMB 21,984,000 in 2023[25]. - The company’s employee benefits expenses rose to RMB 364,282,000 in 2024 from RMB 330,078,000 in 2023, an increase of 10.4%[24]. - The company’s depreciation of property, plant, and equipment increased to RMB 100,036,000 in 2024 from RMB 85,946,000 in 2023, a rise of 16.4%[24]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from product sales was RMB 5,034,752 thousand, while service revenue was RMB 37,204 thousand, indicating a significant drop in service revenue from RMB 65,449 thousand in the previous year[18]. - Over 90% of the company's revenue and operating profit came from electric vehicle sales in China, highlighting the market's significance[21]. - Revenue from electric bicycles increased by approximately 11.7% from RMB 2,699.9 million in 2023 to RMB 3,016.5 million in 2024, driven by higher sales volume and improved product reliability[68]. - Revenue from electric scooters decreased by approximately 30.3% from RMB 1,021.4 million in 2023 to RMB 711.4 million in 2024, primarily due to structural changes in market demand[68]. - Revenue from battery sales decreased by approximately 4.4% from RMB 1,093.6 million in 2023 to RMB 1,045.9 million in 2024, also attributed to market demand changes[68]. Assets and Liabilities - The total assets increased to RMB 4,324.34 million from RMB 3,862.48 million in 2023[10]. - The net cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 554.51 million from RMB 994.97 million in 2023[8]. - The company reported a total borrowing of RMB 1,002,333,000 in 2024, compared to RMB 643,346,000 in 2023, reflecting a substantial increase of 55.8%[43]. - The total trade payables rose to RMB 483,294,000 in 2024, up from RMB 445,558,000 in 2023, indicating an increase of 8.5%[41]. - The company’s leverage ratio increased from 42.6% as of December 31, 2023, to 68.1% as of December 31, 2024, mainly due to an increase in discounted notes[92]. Research and Development - Research and development costs increased to RMB 231.17 million from RMB 189.40 million in 2023, indicating a focus on innovation[4]. - R&D expenses increased by approximately 22.1% from RMB 189.4 million in the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 231.2 million for the year ending December 31, 2024, with 313 new patent applications filed and 247 new patents granted in 2024[47]. Market and Industry Trends - The electric two-wheeler market experienced a year-on-year decline of 11.6% in 2024 due to regulatory tightening and market adjustments, leading to a deep transformation in the industry[44]. - In 2024, China's GDP exceeded RMB 134 trillion, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with domestic consumption contributing 44.5% to economic growth, providing significant development momentum for the electric two-wheeler market[44]. - The electric bicycle market is projected to grow from USD 35 billion in 2024 to USD 62 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 10%[60]. - The Asia-Pacific region accounts for approximately 63% of the global electric bicycle market, followed by Europe (31.4%) and North America (3.9%)[60]. Strategic Initiatives - The company launched over 30 new models in 2024, including industry-leading products such as the S90, Moda8, and Cola10 series, all featuring smart battery systems and traction control systems[48]. - The group established strategic partnerships with major players in the shared mobility sector, including Hello Bike and Didi Qingju Electric Two-Wheelers, enhancing its position as a key supplier in the electric two-wheeler manufacturing industry[52]. - The group plans to prioritize the development of high-end electric bicycles by 2025 and strategically expand into the electric mobility ecosystem, including battery swapping infrastructure and shared transportation solutions[56]. - The group is planning a strategic transformation towards smart manufacturing, incorporating automation and industrial internet connectivity to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs[59]. Shareholder and Governance - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.15 per share for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to zero for the previous year[3]. - The board confirmed that the reallocation will not adversely affect existing business operations[119]. - The company has fully complied with the corporate governance code during the reporting period[132]. - The audit committee consists of three independent non-executive directors, ensuring proper oversight of financial reporting and risk management[139]. Share Options and Incentives - A total of 15,321,275 share options remain unexercised under the pre-IPO share plan, accounting for about 3.7% of the total issued shares as of December 31, 2024[101]. - The post-IPO share incentive plan granted 3,212,500 shares, which is approximately 0.8% of the total issued shares (excluding treasury shares) as of the announcement date[102]. - The company aims to align the interests of eligible employees with those of the company and its shareholders through these share incentive plans[100].