机械设备 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 10 月挖机销量同比增长 15%，内外销迎共振 ——行业周报（20241028-20241101） ◼ 板块行情回顾 本期（11 月 4 日-11 月 8 日），沪深 300 上涨 5.5%，A 股申万机械设 备指数上涨 7.89%，在申万 31 个一级子行业中排名 6，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.39 个百分点。申万机械设备二级子行业中自动化设备表现较 好，上涨 15.11%，工程机械表现较差，上涨 1.55%。申万机械设备三 级子行业中机器人表现较好，上涨 30.67%，工程机械整机表现较差， 上涨 1.09%。 ◼ 核心观点 10 月挖机销量同比增长 15.1%。据中国工程机械工业协会对挖掘机主 要制造企业统计，2024 年 10 月销售各类挖掘机 16791 台，同比增长 15.1%。其中国内销量 8266 台，同比增长 21.6%；出口量 8525 台，同 比增长 9.46%。2024 年 1-10 月，共销售挖掘机 164172 台，同比增长 0.47%；其中国内销量 82211 台，同比增长 9.8%；出口 8 ...

医药生物 行业研究/行业点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------| | ◼ | 医保预付金制度出台，医疗服务、流通赛道景 气度上行 \n核心观点 \ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market index [4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 19.5% year-on-year to 1.013 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 56.98% to 35 million yuan [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to external macroeconomic factors, fluctuations in the real estate industry, and adjustments in downstream customer demand [1]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business by increasing resource investment in key markets and establishing a robust distribution network [1]. - The company focuses on the smart water supply sector, developing a range of smart water meter products and related services [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue down 19.5% and net profit down 56.98% [1]. - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to approximately 1.485 billion, 1.710 billion, and 1.982 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates of 73 million, 76 million, and 85 million yuan [2]. Business Strategy - The company is enhancing its overseas business development by targeting key markets and customers, participating in international exhibitions, and strengthening customer relationships [1]. - The focus remains on the smart water supply sector, with an emphasis on smart metering and operational solutions [1]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the operational challenges faced by the company may persist throughout 2024 due to a complex domestic and international environment [2]. - Despite the current challenges, the company is viewed as a leader in the water meter industry with strong growth potential [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5][27]. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2024, the social service sector is experiencing performance pressure, particularly in the tourism and scenic area, with total revenue of 26.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.14%, and Q3 revenue of 10.825 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.59% [2][10]. - The hotel and catering sector shows a decline in revenue, with total revenue of 22.598 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.58%, and Q3 revenue of 8.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.22% [2][12]. - The report highlights a strong performance in winter sports tourism, with a 22% increase in hotel bookings for skiing in northern regions compared to last year [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Sector Performance Tracking - The social service industry index rose by 2.65% in the week of October 28 to November 1, ranking 4th among all primary industries [4][8]. - Sub-industry performance varied, with hotel and catering down by 0.54%, tourism and scenic areas down by 1.52%, education up by 17.72%, and professional services down by 3.23% [4][8]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Q3 2024 Social Service Sector Performance Pressure - The tourism and scenic area revenue growth has slowed due to a high base from the previous year, with Q3 net profit of 1.749 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.78% [2][10]. - The hotel and catering sector's Q3 net profit decreased by 33.53% to 618 million yuan, reflecting ongoing supply-side pressures [2][12]. 2.2 Improvement in September Retail Data - National retail sales in September grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with a notable increase in household appliances and audio-visual equipment sales [13][14]. 3. Industry Dynamics - Ctrip reported a 22% increase in ski hotel bookings for this winter compared to last year, with significant growth in regions like Heilongjiang and Hebei [3][19]. - Hubei province saw a 12.7% increase in tourist numbers and a 17.8% increase in tourism revenue as of the end of October 2024 [20][21]. - The government has set a target for the ice and snow economy to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, emphasizing the importance of winter sports [20][21]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Songcheng Performing Arts, ShouLai Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Zhongxin Tourism, Keri International, and Zhongjiao Holdings for potential investment opportunities [5][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for precious metals [4][14]. Core Views - The short-term outlook remains one of volatility and correction, with the recent U.S. election results removing uncertainty that had previously affected market dynamics. The expectation is that Trump's election will strengthen the dollar and potentially lead to inflation, which may reduce the urgency of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold have decreased from 63.30% to 60.40%, marking a continuous decline over five weeks [4][11][14]. - In the medium to long term, concerns about the U.S. government deficit and debt levels persist. The impact of Trump's administration on the U.S. economy and international relations remains uncertain. However, the ongoing purchases of gold by central banks highlight its advantages as a reserve and safe-haven asset, suggesting that gold will continue to hold strong investment value [4][14][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a cautious stance in the short term, with the market having priced in most positive factors. The long-term outlook for gold remains strong due to ongoing central bank purchases and the global trend of rate cuts following the Federal Reserve's actions [4][11][14]. 2. Weekly Sector Performance Review - As of November 8, 2024, the non-ferrous metals index increased by 3.47% week-on-week, ranking 27th among 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 16.96% [15]. 3. Price and Inventory Performance 3.1 Precious Metals - As of November 8, 2024, COMEX gold closed at $2691.7 per ounce, down 1.97% from the previous week. COMEX silver closed at $31.425 per ounce, down 3.53%. The gold-silver ratio reached 85.65, up 1.61% [21][25]. 3.2 Industrial Metals - Copper prices for LME and SHFE were reported at $9433 per ton and ¥77100 per ton, respectively, with week-on-week changes of -1.11% and +0.76%. LME and SHFE copper inventories increased by 1025 tons and decreased by 13559 tons, respectively [12][26]. - Aluminum prices for LME and SHFE were reported at $2627 per ton and ¥21690 per ton, with week-on-week changes of +0.92% and +4.30%. LME and SHFE aluminum inventories decreased by 4300 tons and 5527 tons, respectively [12][27]. 3.3 Energy Metals - As of November 8, 2024, lithium carbonate prices increased by 2.03% to ¥75400 per ton, while hydroxide lithium prices decreased by 0.15% to ¥66900 per ton. Nickel prices rose by 1.18% to $16310 per ton [31]. 4. Important News of the Week (November 4-10, 2024) - The report highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains, particularly in the rare earth sector, with disruptions from Myanmar impacting prices and availability [13][14]. 5. Important Company Announcements (November 4-10, 2024) - Specific company announcements were not detailed in the provided content, but the report emphasizes the performance of key players in the precious and industrial metals sectors [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Dongwei Technology [3][5]. Core Views - Dongwei Technology is a leading domestic electroplating equipment manufacturer, with downstream applications covering PCB, general hardware, and new energy sectors. The company has shown a revenue CAGR of 19.8% and a net profit CAGR of 19.5% from 2019 to 2023, while maintaining a high R&D investment rate of approximately 8% during the same period [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Established in 2005, Dongwei Technology has developed a strong presence in the electroplating industry, launching its first vertical continuous plating (VCP) equipment in 2006 and expanding into PCB and general hardware electroplating by 2007. The company has also actively entered the composite copper foil and photovoltaic electroplating markets [2][15]. 2. Business Fundamentals - The PCB and general hardware electroplating businesses provide a solid foundation for the company. The PCB electroplating sector is expected to recover significantly in 2024, with the company anticipating PCB orders to exceed the historical peak of 2021, driven by trends in Southeast Asia, AI servers, and automotive electrification [2][21]. - The company holds over 50% market share in domestic VCP equipment and is expanding its product range to include various mature wet processing equipment [2][24]. 3. New Energy Sector Growth - The new energy business, particularly in composite copper foil and photovoltaic electroplating, is opening new growth avenues. The composite copper foil offers significant advantages over traditional materials, and the company has established a comprehensive product matrix for this sector, achieving sales revenue of 338 million yuan in 2023 [2][3][21]. - The photovoltaic electroplating equipment has also been validated by customers, indicating strong market potential [2][3]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.03 billion yuan, 1.69 billion yuan, and 2.11 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 64.6%, and 24.7%. The net profit is expected to reach 153 million yuan, 317 million yuan, and 418 million yuan during the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 1.1%, 107.1%, and 31.9% [3][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Overweight" (maintained) [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in local government debt resources by 10 trillion yuan, with supportive tax policies for the real estate market expected to be introduced soon. From 2024, the Ministry of Finance plans to allocate 800 billion yuan annually from new local government special bonds for debt reduction, potentially replacing 4 trillion yuan of hidden debt. This policy aims to alleviate existing debt pressure and accelerate the recovery of the real estate market [5][6]. - The report suggests that the recent policy changes are likely to enhance the activity in the real estate market, with a focus on leading companies in the real estate supply chain, such as Beixin Building Materials, Jianlang Hardware, Weixing New Materials, and Dongfang Yuhong [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the direct increase of local debt resources by 10 trillion yuan and the upcoming supportive tax policies for the real estate market. The Ministry of Finance's plan to allocate 800 billion yuan annually for debt reduction is expected to significantly lower the hidden debt burden from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028 [5][6]. 2. Market Review 2.1. Sector Performance - During the week of November 4 to November 8, 2024, the A-share building materials index rose by 3.68%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.82 percentage points [8]. 2.2. Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks in the building materials sector included Nanchuan Co. (+34.82%), Jule Culture (+23.94%), and Yangzi New Materials (+21.28%). Conversely, the worst performers were Huali Co. (-23.23%) and Huaxin Cement (-4.66%) [12][13]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the price of non-alkali yarn continues to show a weak trend, with market prices slightly declining. The average price for non-alkali 2400tex yarn is reported at 3,500-3,600 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.98% decrease from the previous week but an 8.88% increase year-on-year [15]. - Cement prices have seen a slight increase, with the national average for bagged cement at 347.42 yuan per ton, up 1.27% week-on-week. The average price for P.O 42.5 bulk cement is 360.39 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.94% increase [17][18]. 4. Company Dynamics - The report mentions that Xibu Construction has initiated a project to acquire existing residential properties for use as resettlement housing, with the first tranche of special loan funds amounting to 250 million yuan already allocated [5][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2][17]. Core Viewpoints - The 2024 National Medical Insurance negotiations have concluded, with results expected to be released by the end of November. The negotiations involved 127 companies and 162 drugs, with 117 drugs outside the medical insurance catalog and 45 drugs for renewal negotiations. The updated medical insurance drug catalog is expected to be published by the end of November and will be officially implemented on January 1, 2025 [6][7]. - A dynamic adjustment mechanism for the medical insurance catalog has been established, signaling strong support for innovation. The adjustment cycle has been reduced from a maximum of 8 years to 1 year, with the number of drugs participating in negotiations increasing from 18 in 2018 to over 100 in recent years. Approximately 80% of new drugs can be included in the medical insurance catalog within two years of market launch [6][7]. Market Review - During the week of November 4 to November 8, 2024, the A-share Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological sector rose by 6.43%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.92 percentage points but underperforming the ChiNext index by 3.58 percentage points. The sector ranked 14th among 31 first-level sub-industries [8]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 2.77%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.68 percentage points, ranking 2nd among 12 first-level sub-industries [8]. Company Dynamics Company Announcements - On November 8, 2024, Fuan Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received a raw material drug registration certificate from the Korean Food and Drug Administration [12]. - On November 8, 2024, Baillie Gifford's subsidiary received FDA approval for a Phase I clinical trial application for BL-M17D1 for treating advanced solid tumors [12]. - On November 6, 2024, Yahui Pharmaceutical received a drug registration certificate from the National Medical Products Administration for APL-1706 [12].

宏观研究/宏观点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 点 评 货币政策的新目标、新效果、新环境 ——10 月金融数据分析 ◼ 核心观点 我们认为，下一阶段国内货币政策可以从三个方面进行观察：一是从 政策目标来看，推动价格温和回升已成为货币政策重要考量，可观察 PPI 转正、CPI 修复的持续性等。二是从政策效果来看，已经能观察到 股指、货币供应量等指标的变化，但信贷、房地产价格等仍在筑底。 三是从全球环境来看，美联储 11 月再一次降息，但美国国债收益率与 美元指数再次反弹至高位，人民币汇率稳定压力仍未解除。 一、当前货币政策坚持支持性立场，逆周期调节力度加大，促进价格 回升仍然是货币政策重要考量。9 月 24 日国新办新闻发布会提出货币 政策的五个考量：支持中国经济的稳定增长；推动价格的温和回升； 兼顾支持实体经济增长和银行业自身健康性；保持人民币汇率在合理 均衡水平上基本稳定；支持积极财政政策更好发力见效。11 月 5 日的 《国务院关于金融工作情况的报告》提出下一阶段"坚持支持性货币 政策立场，加大货币政策调控强度，提高货币政策调控精准性，有效 落实存量政策，加力推动增量政策落地见效"。1 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.10 yuan as of October 23, 2024 [6][7] Core Views - The company is a global leader in smart display manufacturing, focusing on customized and differentiated display products, including smart interactive panels, professional displays, innovative displays, and smart TVs [2] - The company primarily operates through an OEM model, with 83.8% of its revenue coming from overseas sales in H1 2024 [2] - The global TV OEM market is expected to grow further due to increasing demand for cost-effective local brands and channel-owned brands, benefiting the company's smart TV business [3] - The company's smart interactive display business is expected to improve, driven by the replacement cycle in overseas education markets and emerging market demand [4] - The innovative display segment, including products like mobile smart screens and VR glasses, has shown rapid growth, with revenue increasing by 128.92% YoY in 2023 and 94.1% YoY in H1 2024 [5] Business Segments Smart TV - The company's smart TV business has shown strong growth, with a 20.7% CAGR from 2019 to 2023 and a 52.7% YoY increase in H1 2024 [16][17] - The company ranks fourth in the global TV OEM market in H1 2024, with a 43.7% YoY increase in shipments [40][41] - The global TV OEM market is expected to grow further, driven by cost pressures on brand manufacturers and the shift towards local brands and channel-owned brands [37] Smart Interactive Display - The company is the global leader in smart interactive panel shipments, with a 35.7% revenue share in 2023 [44] - The global IFPD (Interactive Flat Panel Display) market is expected to grow, with education and conference markets showing significant potential [46] - The company's smart interactive display business is expected to grow, with revenue projected to reach 40.1 billion yuan in 2024, 45.8 billion yuan in 2025, and 50.3 billion yuan in 2026 [61] Innovative Display - The innovative display segment, including products like mobile smart screens, VR glasses, and smart mirrors, has shown rapid growth, with revenue increasing by 128.92% YoY in 2023 and 94.1% YoY in H1 2024 [5][57] - The company's KTC brand ranks third in the domestic online market for gaming monitors, with a 142% YoY increase in sales in H1 2024 [53] - The innovative display segment is expected to continue its strong growth, with revenue projected to reach 14.4 billion yuan in 2024, 18.0 billion yuan in 2025, and 20.7 billion yuan in 2026 [62] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.9% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 153.2 billion yuan in 2024, 174.4 billion yuan in 2025, and 189.9 billion yuan in 2026 [6][65] - Net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 36.2% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 9.73 billion yuan in 2024, 13.25 billion yuan in 2025, and 16.01 billion yuan in 2026 [6][65] - The company's EPS is projected to be 1.42 yuan in 2024, 1.93 yuan in 2025, and 2.33 yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.7x, 10.8x, and 9.0x [6][65]