Market Overview - The report indicates that major indices in the A-share market experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.33% to close at 3116.39 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.56% at 9541.64 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.38% to 1852.07 points. The North Star 50, however, saw an increase of 1.68% [16][21][28] - Overall, the market showed a trend of more stocks declining than rising, with 4578 stocks down across the market. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 847.7 billion yuan, a slight increase of 16.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [16][28] Sector Performance - The report highlights that all primary sectors in the Shenwan classification experienced declines, with non-ferrous metals, social services, media, and retail leading the losses, each dropping over 2.5%. In contrast, household appliances, banking, and national defense sectors showed relative resilience, with declines of less than 1% [12][28] - Among the concept sectors, PEEK materials, minimum market capitalization, China Shipbuilding System, high turnover, near-term new stocks, chicken industry, and new stocks performed positively [28] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment, emphasizing the need for investors to consider market conditions and sector performance before making decisions [29][34]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 近期报告 一、我国超长期特别国债的基本情况 "超长期"国债指的是发行期限在 10 年以上的国债，我国主要包括 15 年、 20 年、30 年和 50 年四个期限品种。截至 2024 年 4 月底，我国存量超长期 国债规模达到 50936.9 亿元，占存量国债的比重达到 16.9%，其中 15 年期、 20 年期、30 年期和 50 年期占比分别为 0.1%、1.6%、11.6%和 3.6%。 从首期超长期特别国债的发行结果来看，超长期国债的加权中标收益率为 2.57%，较最近一次（4 月 29 日）30 年期国债加权利率下降 3.8BP，显示出 较低的融资成本。这一利率水平有利于降低政府的付息压力，使得政府能够 以更低成本筹集到更多资金。同时，3.9 的全场倍数和 382.6 的边际倍数反映 出投资者对超长期国债的认可，认购热情高涨。 从各国超长期国债规模占比来看，日本的超长期国债占比最大，达到了 44.8%，这不仅与日本在国债发行更倾向于选择较长期 ...

2024 年 05 月 20 日 投资要点 分析师：马家进 执业编号：S0300522110002 电话：13645711472 邮箱：majiajin@ykzq.com 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】新一轮房地产去库存： 背景、政策、难点与展望 新政是对 430 政治局会议"统筹研究消化存量房产和优化增量住房的政策措 施"重要指示的贯彻落实，标志着新一轮房地产去库存的开启。 1）商品住宅去化周期更长，2024 年一季度长达 23 个月； 4）房企债务和期房烂尾风险冲击居民购房信心，现房销售显著好于期房； 近期中央和地方推出的一系列举措，都是为了实现保供给、促需求和稳房价 的目标。其中，拉动需求、稳定房价并扭转房价下行预期是关键；保供给在 某种意义上也是促需求，因为只有烂尾楼的风险解除了，居民才敢解除对购 买新房期房的忧虑。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 12 1）方式上，预计政府收储将以存量新房为主，二手房规模较小；收购的商品 房将以小户型为主；不宜大规模铺开，将集中于高库存且保障性住房缺口较 大的城市和区域。 证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S03005 ...

Policy Measures - The new real estate policy includes lowering down payment ratios, canceling mortgage rate floors, and reducing public housing loan rates[4] - The central bank will provide 300 billion yuan in relending to support local governments in acquiring unsold residential properties for affordable housing[4] - The policy emphasizes not increasing local government hidden debts while acquiring stock properties and idle land[5] Market Conditions - The inventory clearance cycle for residential properties has extended to 23 months as of Q1 2024, surpassing the previous peak of 21 months in 2015[6] - Property prices have been in negative growth for 25 consecutive months as of April 2024, indicating prolonged market weakness[6] - From January to April 2024, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing fell by 20.2% and 28.3% year-on-year, respectively[10] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The government aims to stimulate demand and stabilize prices by addressing both new and replacement housing needs[7] - Policies include reducing thresholds for home purchases and government acquisitions of unsold properties for affordable housing[10] - The government is expected to focus on acquiring new homes primarily, with limited involvement in the second-hand housing market[68] Future Recommendations - Further relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities is necessary, including expanding purchase quotas[43] - Adjustments to down payment ratios and mortgage rates should be made to boost buyer confidence[43] - Increased central government support for local finances is essential to facilitate the acquisition of properties[43]

2024 年 05 月 15 日 投资要点 投资策略研究 今日关注 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业房地产、建筑材料、煤炭、轻工制造行业 上涨，房地产和建筑材料行业涨幅靠前，非银金融、公用事业、医药生物、 农林牧渔、汽车、计算机、国防军工、环保等行业跌幅靠前。 风险提示 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 6 目 一、市场回顾 图表目录 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 2 / 6 一、市场回顾 三大股指：沪指收跌 0.82%，深证成指收跌 0.88%，创业板指收跌 0.9% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 上证指数 创业板指 深圳成指(右轴） 0 200 400 600 800 -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 房 地 产 建 筑 材 料 煤 炭 轻 工 制 造 银 行 商 贸 零 售 纺 织 服 饰 基 础 化 工 食 品 饮 料 家 用 电 器 钢 铁 交 通 运 输 建 筑 装 饰 通 信 石 油 石 化 机 械 设 备 电 子 传 媒 综 合 有 色 金 属 美 容 护 ...

Debt Risk and Short-term Liquidity - Balance short-term and long-term issues to resolve short-term debt risks and exit emergency mode[1] - Address short-term liquidity issues to lay the foundation for long-term transformation[1] - Reduce short-term debt pressure to facilitate gradual debt resolution during transformation[95] Classification and Disposal of Urban Investment Companies - Classify urban investment companies into three categories: pure financing platforms, market-capable companies, and those with limited market capabilities[93] - Gradually phase out pure financing platforms after resolving historical debts and asset disposal[93] - Transition market-capable companies into ordinary state-owned enterprises after stripping government financing functions[93] Business Transformation Directions - Five major business transformation directions: construction engineering, real estate development, public utilities, industrial investment, and capital operations[83] - Real estate development requires core land resources and faces high debt risks[19] - Public utilities transformation depends on city size and regional economic strength[88] Financial Independence and Governance - Establish independent financial management systems to ensure accurate and complete financial information[13] - Separate market-oriented operations from government public welfare projects financially[82] - Improve corporate governance and establish modern enterprise systems[91] Market-oriented Mechanisms - Deepen market-oriented personnel selection and employment mechanisms[78] - Implement flexible medium- and long-term incentives to align employee interests with company performance[12] - Establish market-oriented salary distribution mechanisms to retain high-quality talent[99]

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 分析师：李兴 执业编号：S0300518100001 电话：010-83755576 邮箱：lixing@ykzq.com 粤开市场日报-20240514 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数小幅下跌。截止收盘，沪指跌 0.07%，收报 3145.77 点；深证成指跌 0.05%，收报 9668.73 点；科创 50 跌 0.44%，收报 760.30 点；创业板指跌 0.26%，收报 1855.60 点。总体上，全天个股涨多跌 少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 3466 只个股上涨，1681 只个股下跌。沪深两市 今日成交额合计 8246 亿元，与上个交易日相较缩量 851.58 亿元。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为网络游戏、新能源整车、K-12 教育、 虚拟人、在线教育、中药、WEB3.0、多模态模型、抖音平台、脑机接口、文 化传媒、跨境电商、短剧游戏、南京市国资板块。 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 策略点讲 录 二、风险提示 图表 1： 今日主要指数涨跌跌幅（%）及板块表现 2 / 6 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及板块表现 0 200 400 600 800 1000 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 分析师：李兴 执业编号：S0300518100001 电话：010-83755576 邮箱：lixing@ykzq.com 粤开市场日报-20240513 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数弱势整理。截止收盘，沪指跌 0.21%，收报 3148.02 点；深证成指跌 0.60%，收报 9673.32 点；科创 50 跌 0.45%，收报 763.69 点；创业板指跌 0.95%，收报 1860.37 点。总体上，全天个股涨少跌 多，Wind 数据显示，全市场 1123 只个股上涨，4129 只个股下跌。沪深两市 今日成交额合计 9097 亿元，与上个交易日基本持平，小幅缩量 28 亿元。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为水电、航运、特高压、火电、白色 家电、大基建央企、电力股、中药、动物保健、智能音箱、新能源整车、银 行、南京市国资、饲料和猪产业板块。 风险提示 策略点讲 一、市场回顾 图表目录 www.ykzq.com 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及板块表现 2024 年 05 月 13 日 投资要点 投资策略研究 今日关注 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业公用事业、家用电 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2024 年 05 月 10 日 投资要点 分析师：李兴 执业编号：S0300518100001 电话：010-83755576 邮箱：lixing@ykzq.com 粤开市场日报-20240510 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数窄幅震荡。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.01%，收报 3154.55 点；深证成指跌 0.58%，收报 9731.24 点；科创 50 跌 1.50%，收报 767.17 点；创业板指跌 1.15%，收报 1878.17 点。总体上，全天个股跌多涨 少，Wind 数据显示，全市场近 3800 只个股下跌。沪深两市今日成交额合计 9125 亿元，较上个交易日放量 114.17 亿元。北向资金今日净卖出，截至收盘， 沪股通净卖出 21.34 亿元，深股通净卖出 41.70 亿元，合计净卖出 63.04 亿 元。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为房地产精选、水电、火电、特高压、 城中村改造、南京市国资、保险精选、电力股精选、新型城镇化、虚拟电厂 等板块。 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 策略点讲 录 二、风险提示 图表 1: 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及板块表现. ww ...

Group 1: Debt Management and Policy - The central government has implemented a comprehensive debt management plan, leading to a reduction in local debt risks and curbing uncontrolled expansion[3] - Debt management strategies include controlling growth, reducing interest rates, and activating assets to repay debts, with local governments adopting tailored approaches[10] - Local debt management tools consist of six main measures, including seeking central support, increasing revenue, and establishing emergency funds[10] Group 2: Challenges in City Investment Transformation - City investment companies face significant operational pressure due to restrictions on new financing and the need to repay existing debts, leading to a reliance on high-cost loans[15] - The transformation of city investment platforms is essential but complicated by historical debt burdens, with some platforms carrying over 500 billion yuan in liabilities[22] - Many city investment companies struggle with insufficient operational income and high financing costs, making transformation difficult without government support[37] Group 3: Regional Perspectives on Transformation - Perspectives on city investment transformation vary by region, with many county-level companies viewing it as a false proposition due to limited resources[32] - Provincial and city-level companies are more optimistic about transformation but emphasize the need to resolve liquidity risks first[32] - Successful transformation requires addressing historical debt issues and enhancing governance structures within city investment companies[12]