2025 年 07 月 22 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250722 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数收涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.62%，收报 3581.86 点；深证成指涨 0.84%，收报 11099.83 点；科创 50 涨 0.83%，收报 1016.27 点；创业板指涨 0.61%，收报 2210.86 点。总体上，全天个股涨跌参 半，Wind 数据显示，全市场 2539 只个股上涨，2723 只个股下跌，152 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 18930 亿元，较上个交易日放量 1930.58 亿 元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，煤炭、建筑材料、建筑装饰、 钢铁、有色金属、石油石化等行业领涨，银行、计算机、通信、电子、纺织 服饰、传媒等行业领跌。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为煤炭开采、水泥制造、水利水电建 设、挖掘机、西部大基建、央企煤炭、大基建央企、老基建、特高压、锂矿、 一带一路、硅能源、新疆振兴 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.72% to close at 3559.72 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.86% to 11007.49 points. The ChiNext Index saw a slight increase of 0.87%, closing at 2296.88 points. Overall, 4002 stocks rose, 1291 fell, and 121 remained unchanged, with a total trading volume of 17000 billion yuan, an increase of 1289.37 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, all sectors except for banking, comprehensive, computer, and home appliances experienced gains today. The leading sectors included construction materials, construction decoration, steel, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and coal [1]. - The top-performing concept sectors included cement manufacturing, water conservancy and hydropower construction, major infrastructure projects in the west, excavators, robotics, rare earths, and various infrastructure-related sectors [2].

Group 1: Impact of Tariff War on Prices - The PPI in June 2025 decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, the lowest since August 2023, while CPI remained around 0%[12] - Brent crude oil prices fell from $74.95 per barrel to $62.82 per barrel following the announcement of tariffs, leading to significant declines in PPI for the petroleum industry of -8.6%, -11.1%, and -9.0% from April to June 2025[2] - Exports to the U.S. for textiles, clothing, and furniture saw a drop of over 40% in May 2025, resulting in a significant decrease in related export prices, such as an 8.3% drop in the average price of clothing imported from China[17] Group 2: Future Price Trends and Recommendations - International commodity prices are expected to remain under pressure, with OPEC+ increasing production, which may lead to further downward pressure on prices[31] - The negative impact of the tariff war on China's overall exports may gradually become more pronounced, with potential price declines for more products[32] - To counteract the tariff impacts, it is crucial to expand domestic effective demand through policies that stimulate consumption and investment, particularly in the real estate sector[42]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.50% to close at 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% to 10913.84 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.34% to finish at 2277.15 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1571 billion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][14]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, coal, and transportation, with respective increases of 2.10%, 1.36%, 1.34%, 0.94%, and 0.90%. Conversely, the media, electronics, light manufacturing, public utilities, and telecommunications sectors experienced declines, with decreases of 0.98%, 0.49%, 0.41%, 0.35%, and 0.31% respectively [1][14]. Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included rare earths, rare metals, lithium mining, rare earth permanent magnets, and small metals, among others. Notable sectors that experienced pullbacks included marketing communication, dairy, and online gaming [2][11].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.37% to close at 3516.83 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.43% to 10873.62 points. The ChiNext Index saw a gain of 1.75%, closing at 2269.33 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 0.80% to 1005.65 points. Overall, 3535 stocks rose, 1609 fell, and 271 remained unchanged, with a total trading volume of 15,394 billion yuan, an increase of 973 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included defense and military, communication, electronics, pharmaceutical and biological, and comprehensive industries, with respective gains of 2.74%, 2.41%, 2.18%, 1.77%, and 1.42%. Conversely, the banking, transportation, environmental protection, public utilities, and construction decoration sectors experienced declines, with losses of 0.42%, 0.39%, 0.26%, 0.24%, and 0.19% respectively [1][2]. Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included circuit boards, CRO (Contract Research Organization), innovative drugs, aircraft carriers, first boards, medical services, board trading, large aircraft, continuous boards, wireless charging, the top ten military industrial groups, biological vaccines, photoresist, consumer electronics OEM, and 5G [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with major indices mostly declining. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% to close at 3503.78 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both decreased by 0.22%, closing at 10720.81 points and 2230.19 points respectively. The STAR 50 Index, however, increased by 0.14% to 997.63 points [1][10] - Overall, there were 3276 stocks that rose, while 1928 stocks fell, and 212 stocks remained unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1442 billion yuan, a decrease of 170 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][10] Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, the top performers included Social Services, Automotive, Pharmaceutical and Biological, Light Industry Manufacturing, and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, with respective increases of 1.13%, 1.07%, 0.95%, 0.94%, and 0.85%. Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines included Steel, Banking, Non-Ferrous Metals, Non-Bank Financials, and Construction Decoration, with decreases of 1.28%, 0.74%, 0.45%, 0.43%, and 0.42% [1][10] - The leading concept sectors today were Continuous Limit Up, Animal Vaccines, First Limit Up, and others, while sectors like Circuit Boards, Lithium Mining, and Industrial Metals faced declines [2][12]

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by consumption policies, investment from special bonds, and export resilience[10] - Nominal GDP growth was 4.3%, 1 percentage point lower than the actual growth, indicating a disparity in economic perception[2] - In June, exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with direct exports to the US declining by 16.1%, but the drop was less severe than in May[16] Consumption and Investment Trends - Retail sales growth fell from 6.4% in May to 4.8% in June, with significant drops in restaurant income from 5.9% to 0.9%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth decreased from 3.7% to 2.8% in the first half of the year, with real estate investment down by 12.9% in June[4] - Manufacturing investment growth slowed, reflecting a need for capacity reduction amid insufficient effective demand[23] Policy Recommendations - A "dual 5" target is suggested, aiming for both nominal and actual GDP growth to reach around 5%[12] - Emphasis on adjusting macroeconomic policies to prioritize nominal GDP growth and address employment and price stability[12] - Recommendations include expanding fiscal spending, supporting affected industries, and enhancing consumer incentives to stimulate demand[27][28]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.42% closing at 3505.00 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.56% to 10744.56 points. The ChiNext Index increased by 1.73% to 2235.05 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index gained 0.39% closing at 996.25 points. Overall, there were 1332 stocks that rose and 4015 that fell across the market, with a total trading volume of 1612 billion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][12]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included telecommunications, computers, electronics, home appliances, and automobiles, with gains of 4.61%, 1.42%, 0.79%, 0.59%, and 0.58% respectively. Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines were coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, public utilities, textiles, and beauty care, with losses of 1.92%, 1.62%, 1.60%, 1.55%, and 1.53% respectively [1][12]. Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included IDC, cloud computing, continuous boards, industrial internet, big data, circuit boards, technology leaders, artificial intelligence, new infrastructure, self-controllable technology, consumer electronics OEM, virtual reality, edge computing, wireless charging, and speculative trading [2][11].

Market Overview - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to close at 3519.65 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.11% to 10684.52 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.45% to 2197.07 points [1][10] - Overall, a total of 3178 stocks rose, while 2062 stocks fell, and 175 stocks remained unchanged, indicating a generally positive sentiment in the market despite some declines in major indices [1][10] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the mechanical equipment, comprehensive, public utilities, home appliances, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the gains, with increases of 1.23%, 1.04%, 1.04%, 1.02%, and 0.86% respectively [1][10] - Conversely, the real estate, media, non-bank financials, commercial retail, and computer industries experienced declines, with decreases of 1.29%, 1.24%, 1.03%, 0.94%, and 0.88% respectively [1][10] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included first boards, lithium mining, board hitting, vitamins, innovative drugs, charging piles, gold and jewelry, ultra-high voltage, paper making, pre-increase, consecutive boards, CRO, auto parts, masks, and animal vaccines [2][12] - The sectors that faced the most significant declines included stock trading software, marketing communication, and financial technology [2][12]

Economic Overview - China's economy is expected to grow at over 5% in the first half of 2025, supported by policies like the old-for-new consumption initiative and proactive fiscal measures[2] - The economy is projected to follow a "U-shaped" trajectory throughout the year, with growth pressures in the second half due to high base effects and external factors[2][9] Key Challenges - The actual tariff rate imposed by the US on China is approximately 40%, which may lead to diminishing export resilience as previous "rush to export" effects fade[10] - Real estate prices are declining, impacting consumer wealth and spending, with sales and investment in the sector showing negative growth since May[12] - Local government finances remain tight, with significant reliance on fiscal support to sustain growth, potentially limiting resources for the second half of the year[13] Policy Recommendations - Accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to stimulate investment and consumption[3] - Optimize the old-for-new consumption policy to include the service sector, enhancing its effectiveness[3] - Implement measures to stabilize the real estate market, including the establishment of a central real estate stabilization fund[17] Fiscal and Monetary Measures - Fiscal policy will be a primary focus, with an emphasis on increasing spending to counteract external demand pressures[15] - The government plans to issue approximately 11.86 trillion yuan in new debt for the year, with 5 trillion yuan utilized in the first half and an estimated 5.5 trillion yuan for the second half[13] Inflation and Economic Sentiment - Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth was only 0.1% in June 2025, indicating low inflation, while Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative territory for 33 consecutive months[14] - The divergence between macroeconomic data and microeconomic sentiment may hinder economic recovery, necessitating stronger macroeconomic controls to promote reasonable price increases[14]