证券研究报告 | 策略点评 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数上涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.70%，收报 3902.81 点；深证成指涨 1.08%，收报 13147.68 点；科创 50 跌 0.00%，收报 1326.10 点；创业板指涨 1.36%，收报 3109.30 点。总体上，全天个股涨多跌 少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 4384 只个股上涨，974 只个股下跌，93 只个股收 平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 17258 亿元，较上个交易日放量 1768 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，非银金融、有色金属、机械设 备、国防军工和综合等行业涨幅靠前，涨幅分别为 3.50%、2.84%、2.34%、2.21% 和 1.76%，仅银行业领跌，跌幅为 0.58%。 2025 年 12 月 05 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20251205 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为炒股软件、保险精选、两岸融合、 超导、工业金属精选、核聚变、商业航天、光模块(CPO) ...

投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20251204 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 04 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 6 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数上涨。截止收盘，沪指跌 0.06%，收报 3875.79 点；深证成指涨 0.40%，收报 13006.72 点；科创 50 涨 1.36%，收报 1326.16 点；创业板指涨 1.01%，收报 3067.48 点。总体上，全天个股涨少跌 多，Wind 数据显示，全市场 1454 只个股上涨，3874 只个股下跌，123 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 15490 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 1210 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨少跌多，机械设备、电子、国防军工、 通信、有色金属等行业涨幅靠前，涨幅分别为 0.90%、0.78%、0.55%、0.50% 和 0.33%，综合、美容护理、社会服务、商贸零售和纺织服饰等行业领跌，跌 幅分别为 2.11%、1. ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.51% to close at 3878.00 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.78% to 12955.25 points, the Sci-Tech 50 Index decreasing by 0.89% to 1308.37 points, and the ChiNext Index dropping by 1.12% to 3036.79 points [1][10] - Overall, there were 1442 stocks that rose while 3872 stocks fell, with 137 stocks remaining unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 167 billion yuan, an increase of 765 million yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, transportation, non-ferrous metals, coal, home appliances, and light industry manufacturing showed the highest gains, with increases of 0.69%, 0.63%, 0.57%, 0.30%, and 0.25% respectively. Conversely, the media, computer, real estate, retail, and comprehensive sectors led the declines, with decreases of 2.86%, 2.26%, 1.53%, 1.40%, and 1.26% respectively [1][10] - The concept sectors that performed well included cultivated diamonds, superhard materials, industrial metal selection, and others, while sectors like WEB3.0, Baidu platform, and Xiaohongshu platform experienced declines [2][12]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.42% to close at 3897.71 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.68% to 13056.70 points, the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.69% to 3071.15 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index dropping by 1.24% to 1320.16 points [1][14] - Overall, there were 1541 stocks that rose while 3739 stocks fell, with 171 stocks remaining flat. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 15934 billion yuan, a decrease of 2805 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the sectors that saw gains included Oil & Petrochemicals (up 0.71%), Light Industry Manufacturing (up 0.55%), Home Appliances (up 0.43%), Building Materials (up 0.32%), and Communications (up 0.27%). Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines included Media (down 1.75%), Nonferrous Metals (down 1.36%), Computers (down 1.34%), Pharmaceuticals & Biology (down 1.23%), and Electric Equipment (down 1.18%) [1][14] Sector Highlights - The concept sectors that performed well today included Cross-Strait Integration, SPD, and Pre-made Dishes, while sectors such as CRO, Cultivated Diamonds, and Lithium Mining saw a pullback [2][11]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all major indices rise today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.65% to close at 3914.01 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.25% to 13146.72 points, the STAR Market 50 Index up by 0.72% to 1336.76 points, and the ChiNext Index gaining 1.31% to 3092.50 points [1][14] - Overall, 3396 stocks rose while 1868 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 18739 billion yuan, an increase of 2881 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included non-ferrous metals (up 2.85%), telecommunications (up 2.81%), electronics (up 1.58%), commercial retail (up 1.41%), and social services (up 1.35%). The only sectors that declined were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (down 0.43%), environmental protection (down 0.23%), and real estate (down 0.06%) [1][14] Concept Sectors - The leading concept sectors with significant gains today included smart speakers, MCU chips, ice and snow tourism, photolithography machines, selected industrial metals, the Internet of Things, TWS headphones, GPUs, the SMIC industrial chain, rare earths, circuit boards, 6G, AI wearable devices, selected shipping, and AI mobile phones [2][11]

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated resilience with two "above expectations" and two "below expectations" characteristics, showing a "front high and back low" trend throughout the year[1] - The GDP growth for 2025 is projected to be around 5%, with a nominal GDP growth target of 5% as well, indicating a need for price recovery embedded in growth targets[2] Key Economic Drivers - The main economic lines for 2026 will focus on real estate and local government debt, with exports and central government-supported infrastructure investment serving as primary support forces[2] - In 2025, China's exports grew by 5.3% year-on-year, supported by diversified market layouts and upgraded export structures[8] Challenges and Risks - The real estate market's recovery in 2025 was slower than expected, with real estate investment declining by 14.7% year-on-year from January to October, exceeding the previous year's decline of 10.6%[10] - Internal challenges include low consumer spending and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, which may prolong the recovery process[28] Policy Recommendations - Fiscal policy should be proactive, with a recommendation for a fiscal deficit rate of no less than 4% in 2026 to counteract the negative effects of real estate downturns and local government debt[33] - Monetary policy should leverage the opportunity presented by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to further lower domestic interest rates and stimulate economic recovery[34] Consumer and Investment Outlook - Consumer spending is expected to gradually recover, supported by subsidy policies in childcare and pensions, alongside a potential increase in service consumption[24] - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 1.8% in 2026, with real estate investment expected to decrease by 15.2%[26]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.34% to close at 3888.6 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.85% to 12984.08 points. The ChiNext Index rose by 0.70% to 3052.59 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index saw a gain of 1.25%, closing at 1327.15 points. Overall, 4122 stocks rose while 1187 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 15858 billion yuan, a decrease of 1240 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, Steel, Retail, Non-ferrous Metals, National Defense and Military Industry, and Machinery Equipment, with respective increases of 1.59%, 1.59%, 1.46%, 1.44%, 1.41%, and 1.41%. The Banking and Coal industries were the only sectors to decline, with decreases of 0.83% and 0.14% respectively [1]. Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors today included Cross-Strait Integration, Hainan Free Trade Port, Lithium Mining, Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries, Lithium Battery Cathodes, Dairy Industry, Satellite Internet, Third Generation Semiconductors, Rare Metals Selection, Satellite Navigation, Semiconductor Equipment, Cybersecurity, Natural Gas, Vanadium Batteries, and Cameras. In contrast, sectors such as Pinduoduo Partners, Central State-owned Banks, Vitamins, and Selected Traditional Chinese Medicine experienced pullbacks [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% to close at 3875.26 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 12875.19 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.44% to 3031.3 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index dropped by 0.33% to 1310.7 points. Overall, 2786 stocks rose, 2445 fell, and 217 remained unchanged, with a total trading volume of 17098 billion yuan, down by 736 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, light industry manufacturing, basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and coal sectors led the gains, with increases of 1.09%, 1.01%, 0.90%, and 0.80% respectively. Conversely, the comprehensive, media, retail, and computer sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 2.34%, 1.40%, 1.20%, and 0.82% respectively [1][2]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that performed well today included lithium battery electrolytes, consumer electronics OEM, solid-state batteries, sodium-ion batteries, HBM, lithium battery cathodes, power batteries, TWS headsets, optical modules (CPO), lithium batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries, lithium battery anodes, phosphorus chemicals, analog chips, and copper-clad laminates. In contrast, sectors such as cultivated diamonds, Hainan Free Trade Port, Xiaohongshu platform, SPD, and cross-strait integration saw corrections [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.15% closing at 3864.18 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.02% to 12907.83 points. The ChiNext Index rose by 2.14% to 3044.69 points, and the STAR 50 Index gained 0.99% to close at 1315.04 points. Overall, there were 1689 stocks that rose, while 3591 stocks fell, with 168 stocks remaining unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17833 billion, a decrease of 288 billion from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the sectors that performed well included telecommunications, comprehensive, electronics, and retail, with gains of 4.64%, 1.79%, 1.58%, and 1.11% respectively. Conversely, the sectors that lagged included defense and military, social services, media, and petroleum and petrochemicals, with declines of 2.25%, 0.97%, 0.82%, and 0.80% respectively [1][2]. Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors today included optical modules (CPO), optical communications, optical chips, SPD, cultivated diamonds, smart speakers, consumer electronics OEM, excavators, third-generation semiconductors, servers, GPUs, and MCU chips. In contrast, sectors such as the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation system, aquatic products, aircraft carriers, the top ten military industrial groups, military information technology, military-civilian integration, large aircraft, and commercial aerospace experienced a pullback [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a broad increase today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.87% to close at 3870.02 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.53% to 12777.31 points, the ChiNext Index up by 1.77% to 2980.93 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index gaining 0.43% to 1302.17 points [1] - Overall, 4297 stocks rose while 991 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 18121 billion yuan, an increase of 844 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included telecommunications, media, non-ferrous metals, comprehensive, and electronics, with respective increases of 3.54%, 2.85%, 2.42%, 2.21%, and 2.14% [1] - The only sectors that experienced declines were defense and military industry, and transportation, with decreases of 0.32% and 0.11% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors in terms of growth included optical modules (CPO), optical chips, optical communications, fiberglass, lithium battery electrolytes, cross-strait integration, 6G, copper-clad laminates, circuit boards, RF and antennas, Chinese corpus, high-speed copper connections, and online games [2] - Sectors such as aquaculture, air transportation selection, China Shipbuilding System, and aircraft carrier concepts experienced a pullback [2]