Implementation Effects of Active Fiscal Policy - Active fiscal policy has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining an average economic growth rate of 9.9% from 2008 to 2010, compared to the global average of 1.7%[5] - From 2020 to 2023, China's average economic growth rate was 4.7%, significantly higher than the global average of 2.3% during the same period[5] - Social welfare spending has increased, with rural minimum living standards rising by 73.3% and urban low-income standards increasing by 45.4% from 2017 to 2023[7] Challenges of Active Fiscal Policy - The emphasis on current fiscal balance may impact long-term economic risks, with the deficit rate rarely exceeding 3%[9] - The effectiveness of large-scale tax cuts is diminishing, with the general public budget revenue as a percentage of GDP dropping to 16.3% in 2024, down 5.1 percentage points from 2013[13] - The fiscal expenditure structure needs optimization, with a tendency to focus more on supply-side measures rather than demand-side support[14] Directions for Fiscal Policy Transformation - Shift from a balanced fiscal approach to a functional fiscal policy, potentially breaking the 3% deficit constraint to stimulate economic growth[16] - Enhance the focus on long-term challenges such as population aging and digital economy risks, ensuring fiscal policy addresses both short-term stability and long-term sustainability[18] - Transition from income policies to expenditure policies, emphasizing efficiency and effectiveness in fiscal measures[22]

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 05 月 27 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250527 今日关注 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为-0.18%，深证成指涨跌幅为-0.61%， 创业板指涨跌幅为-0.68%。 申万一级行业表现：纺织服饰、医药生物、美容护理在行业涨跌幅榜居 前；机械设备、通信、计算机在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 概念板块表现：总体来看，连板、打板、乳业概念表现相对较好；摄像 头、汽车零部件、工业金属概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 策略点评 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 二、风险提示 资料来源： wind 、粤开证券研究院 策略点评 分析师简介 孟之绪，华北电力大学学士、 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250526 2025年05月26日 投资要点 分析师:孟之绪 执业编号:S0300524080001 申话: 邮箱: mengzhixu@ykzq.com 今日关注 今日主要指数涨跌幅:沪指涨跌幅为-0.05%,深证成指涨跌幅为-0.41%, 创业板指涨跌幅为-0.8%。 申万一级行业表现:传媒、计算机、环保在行业涨跌幅榜居前;银行、 家用电器、电力设备在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 概念板块表现:总体来看,连板、航空运输、网络游戏概念表现相对较 好;抗癌、CRO、汽车整车概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险,投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 策略点 图表1:今日主要指数涨跌幅(%)及概念板块表现 目 录 | | 「八日二 | | --- | --- | | 1 | 市场回顾 - Доставностивности повенности на полниции и подативности на подативности и подательности и подательности и подател ...

2025 年 05 月 26 日 投资要点 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250526 今日关注 申万一级行业表现：传媒、计算机、环保在行业涨跌幅榜居前；银行、 家用电器、电力设备在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为-0.05%，深证成指涨跌幅为-0.41%， 创业板指涨跌幅为-0.8%。 概念板块表现：总体来看，连板、航空运输、网络游戏概念表现相对较 好；抗癌、CRO、汽车整车概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 策略点评 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 二、风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎 策略点评 分析师简介 孟之绪，华北电力大学学士、硕士，2022 年 8 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250523 2025年05月23日 投资要点 分析师:孟之绪 执业编号:S0300524080 邮箱: mengzhixu(a)ykzq.com 今日关注 指数涨跌情况:今日 A 股主要指数多数收跌。截止收盘,沪指跌 0.94%,收报 3348.37点;深证成指跌 0.85%,收报 10132.41点;科创 50 跌 1.02%,收报 980.58 点;创业板指跌 1.18%,收报 2021.50 点。总体上,全天个股跌多涨 少,Wind 数据显示,全市场 4200只个股下跌,1106 只个股上涨,104 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 11556亿元,较上个交易目放量 529 亿元。 行业涨跌情况:今日申万一级行业除汽车、医药生物、基础化工外全部下跌, 计算机、综合、传媒、美容护理、交通运输、商贸零售等行业领跌。 板块涨跌情况:今日涨幅居前概念板块为 CRO、抗生素、医疗服务精选、减 肥药、医疗物资出口、仿制药、光刻工厂、核电、汽车整车精选、SPD、创 新药、体外诊断、中药精选、黄金珠宝、医药数智化等板块。 风险提示 股市有风险,投资需谨慎 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 05 月 23 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250523 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数收跌。截止收盘，沪指跌 0.94%，收报 3348.37 点；深证成指跌 0.85%，收报 10132.41 点；科创 50 跌 1.02%，收报 980.58 点；创业板指跌 1.18%，收报 2021.50 点。总体上，全天个股跌多涨 少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 4200 只个股下跌，1106 只个股上涨，104 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 11556 亿元，较上个交易日放量 529 亿元。 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 4 | 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业除汽车、医药生物、基础化工外全部下跌， 计算机、综合、传媒、美容护理、交通运输、商贸零售等行业领跌。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为 CRO、抗生素、医疗服务精选、减 肥药、医疗物资出口、仿制药、光刻工厂、核电、 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% closing at 3380.19 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.72% at 10219.62 points, the Sci-Tech 50 down 0.48% at 990.71 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96% at 2045.57 points [1] - Overall, there were 4451 stocks that declined, while only 882 stocks rose, and 77 stocks remained flat [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 11027 billion, a decrease of 707.55 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, all sectors except for banking, media, and household appliances experienced declines today [1] - The sectors that led the decline included beauty care, social services, basic chemicals, environmental protection, real estate, and electric equipment [1] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included selected banking, smart speakers, multimodal models, central enterprise banks, ChatGPT, online gaming, K-12 education, selected air transport, Kimi, selected insurance, IGBT, Chinese corpus, short drama games, internet celebrity economy, and central enterprise automobiles [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% to close at 3387.57 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.44% to 10294.22 points. The ChiNext Index fell by 0.22% to 995.49 points, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index rose by 0.83% to 2065.39 points. Overall, there were more decliners than advancers, with 3599 stocks declining and 1615 stocks advancing across the market. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 11734 billion yuan, an increase of 37.64 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, coal, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, banking, pharmaceutical biology, and transportation sectors led the gains, while beauty care, electronics, media, social services, machinery equipment, and retail sectors experienced declines [1]. - The top-performing concept sectors included gold and jewelry, selected air transport, power batteries, coal mining, central enterprise coal, lithium battery anodes, lithium iron phosphate batteries, solid-state batteries, sodium-ion batteries, complete vehicles, cobalt mines, battery recycling, new energy vehicles, germanium-gallium-antimony ink, and antibiotics [2].

Group 1: Debt Reduction Achievements - In 2024, local hidden debt was reduced by approximately 23%, from CNY 14.3 trillion at the end of 2023 to CNY 11.0 trillion by the end of 2024[4] - The issuance of various local government bonds for debt replacement reached CNY 3.4 trillion in 2024, significantly contributing to the reduction of hidden debt[4] - The number of financing platforms nationwide decreased by nearly 7,000 in 2024, with significant reductions in Ningxia (76%) and Inner Mongolia (66.5%)[4][6] Group 2: Financial Impact and Cost Savings - The average issuance interest rate for local government bonds in 2024 was 2.3%, leading to an estimated annual interest savings of over CNY 200 billion from debt replacement[5][6] - In 2024, the interest savings for Inner Mongolia from debt replacement amounted to CNY 30.9 billion, equivalent to 8.5% of its legal debt interest payments[6] - The optimization of debt structure resulted in a significant decrease in non-standard debt, with bank loans increasing from 55% to 67% of the total debt structure[6] Group 3: Future Debt Management Strategies - In 2025, several provinces, including Sichuan and Hubei, have committed to not adding new hidden debts as a strict policy[8] - The central government plans to dynamically adjust the list of high-risk debt regions, with Ningxia and Inner Mongolia expected to exit this list[9] - A comprehensive monitoring and regulatory system for local debt is being established to enhance transparency and risk assessment[7]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.38% to close at 3380.48 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.77% to 10249.17 points. The ChiNext Index also saw a gain of 0.77%, closing at 2048.46 points [1] - Overall, there were 3836 stocks that rose and 1376 that fell, with a total market turnover of 11698 billion yuan, an increase of 832.34 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, all sectors except for defense, coal, steel, and real estate experienced gains today. Leading sectors included beauty care, comprehensive services, media, home appliances, pharmaceutical biology, and light industry manufacturing [1] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included pet economy, animal health selection, three-child policy, millet economy, cultivated diamonds, feed selection, superhard materials, hydropower, medical beauty, Xiaohongshu platform, generic drugs, gold and jewelry, IPO economy, central enterprise automobiles, and biotechnology [1]