证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 05 月 14 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250514 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要宽基指数多数上涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.86%， 收报 3403.95 点；深证成指涨 0.64%，收报 10354.22 点；创业板指涨 1.01%， 收报 2083.14 点；科创 50 涨 0.41%，收报 1013.77 点。总体上全天个股涨少 跌多，Wind 数据显示，全市场 2327 只个股上涨，2816 只个股下跌，268 只个 股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 13167 亿元，较上个交易日放量约 252 亿 元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，非银金融、交通运输、食品饮 料、综合和商贸零售行业领涨，涨幅分别为 3.99%、1.79%、1.68%、1.31%和 1.18%，国防军工、美容护理、机械设备、社会服务和电力设备行业领跌，跌 幅分别为 0.74%、0.39%、0.37%、0.17%和 0.16%。 板块涨跌情况：今日 ...

2025 年 05 月 13 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250513 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要宽基指数涨少跌多。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.17%， 收报 3374.87 点；深证成指跌 0.13%，收报 10288.08 点；创业板指跌 0.12%， 收报 2062.26 点；科创 50 跌 0.15%，收报 1009.68 点。总体上全天个股涨少 跌多，Wind 数据显示，全市场 1940 只个股上涨，3233 只个股下跌，237 只个 股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 12915 亿元，较上个交易日缩量约 169 亿 元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，银行、美容护理、医药生物、 交通运输和煤炭行业领涨，涨幅分别为 1.52%、1.18%、0.90%、0.72%和 0.62%， 国防军工、计算机、机械设备、电子和通信行业领跌，跌幅分别为 3.07%、0.80%、 0.66%、0.64%和 0.61%。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 05 月 12 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：马家进 执业编号：S0300522110002 电话：13645711472 邮箱：majiajin@ykzq.com 研究助理：孙文婷 邮箱：sunwenting1@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】本轮物价低迷与前两轮有何 不同：特征、原因和应对》2025-05-11 《【粤开宏观】新一轮一揽子金融政策：重 现 924 及增量举措》2025-05-07 《【粤开宏观】"内卷式"竞争：风起何方？ 《【粤开宏观】博弈视角看"关税战"：特 朗普的意图与各经济体的不同反应》 2025-04-27 《【粤开宏观】政治局会议释放的七大信 号》2025-04-25 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】中美互降关税：为何要 降？还有哪些没解决？未来会如何？ 事件 潮归何处？》2025-05-05 5 月 12 日，中国和美国发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，要点包括： 1）美国将本轮对华加征的 125%的"对等关税 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 05 月 12 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，国防军工、电力设备、机械设 备、非银金融和汽车行业领涨，涨幅分别为 4.80%、2.69%、2.24%、2.08%和 1.91%，仅农林牧渔、医药生物、公用事业和美容护理行业下跌，跌幅分别为 0.49%、0.27%、0.26%和 0.04%。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为航母、十大军工集团、大飞机、炒 股软件、军民融合、TWS 耳机、无线充电、卫星互联网、卫星导航、连板、消 费电子代工、机器人、近端次新股、高端装备制造、工业 4.0。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 6 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250512 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要宽基指数全数上涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.82%， 收报 3369.24 点；深证成指涨 1.72%，收报 10301.16 点；创业板指涨 2.63%， 收报 2 ...

Group 1: Current Price Trends - The GDP deflator index has been negative for 8 consecutive quarters, marking a historical high duration[16] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative territory for 31 months, with a monthly average decline of 1.34 percentage points from coal, black metal, and non-metal industries[19] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped to a growth center of 0.1%, significantly lower than the average growth of 2.6% from 2010 to 2019[30] Group 2: Contributing Factors to Price Decline - The real estate market has seen a significant change in supply-demand dynamics, with real estate investment growth negative for three consecutive years, impacting related industries[42] - Insufficient consumer demand has led to a decline in CPI, with the average consumption propensity dropping to 63.1% in Q1 2025, down from 65.2% in 2019[47] - "Involution" competition in emerging industries has caused prices to drop beyond reasonable levels, with lithium battery prices falling by 39.5% and solar module prices by 29.7% in 2024[52] Group 3: Impact of External Factors - The "tariff war" initiated by the U.S. has negatively impacted export demand, leading to increased domestic supply-demand imbalances and downward pressure on prices[63] - The average monthly increase in pork prices from April 2024 to April 2025 was only 11.3%, significantly lower than previous cycles, reducing its support for overall CPI[36] Group 4: Recommendations for Policy Action - There is a need for stronger macroeconomic regulation to promote reasonable price recovery, including policies to stimulate consumption and stabilize asset prices[63] - Supply-side reforms should focus on eliminating outdated production capacity and encouraging mergers and acquisitions to restore price levels[10]

Market Overview - The main indices showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.65% [1] - Among the Shenwan first-level industry sectors, telecommunications, national defense and military industry, and electric equipment performed well, while oil and petrochemicals, transportation, and basic chemicals lagged behind [1] - Concept sectors showed varied performance, with large aircraft, aircraft carriers, and satellite navigation concepts performing relatively well, while gold and jewelry, chemical raw materials, and biological breeding concepts performed poorly [1] Strategy Commentary - The report includes a market review based on data from Wind and the Yuekai Securities Research Institute, highlighting the overall market trends and sector performances [7]

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 05 月 07 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250507 今日关注 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为 0.8%，深证成指涨跌幅为 0.22%， 创业板指涨跌幅为 0.51%。 申万一级行业表现：国防军工、银行、基础化工在行业涨跌幅榜居前； 社会服务、医药生物、通信在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 概念板块表现：总体来看，大飞机、航母、连板概念表现相对较好；航 空运输、网红经济、营销传播概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 策略点评 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | 孟之绪，华北电力大学学士、硕士，2022 年 8 月加入粤开证券，现任宏观分析师，证书编号：S03005 ...

Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[11] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points from 1.5% to 1.4%, which will lead to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 0.1 percentage points[11] - A new tool of 500 billion yuan for "service consumption and pension re-loans" was established to boost consumer spending[6] Market Stabilization Efforts - The financial regulatory authorities introduced eight incremental policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, stock market, and foreign trade[3] - The stock market responded positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index rising by 0.8% and 0.51% respectively on the announcement day[4] - The measures are designed to counteract the potential decline in external demand due to increased tariffs from the U.S.[3] Economic Context and Challenges - The current economic backdrop includes a significant impact from U.S. tariffs, with the main challenge shifting from internal demand issues to external trade pressures[4] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49% in April, indicating contraction, and the CPI showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%[12] - The overall deposit reserve ratio will decrease from 6.6% to 6.2%, still above the historical low of 6.0%[13] Consumer and Business Support - The policy aims to enhance consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the service sector, which accounts for over 50% of total consumption[6] - An additional 3 trillion yuan in re-loan quotas for small and micro enterprises was announced, with a focus on reducing financing costs and improving access to credit[17] - The government will provide targeted support for businesses affected by the tariff war, ensuring financial assistance and insurance coverage[7] Real Estate Market Stability - The measures include lowering mortgage rates to alleviate repayment pressure on households, thereby boosting home-buying intentions[21] - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the five-year rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%[22] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization after a prolonged downturn, with first-tier cities experiencing a rebound in second-hand home prices[20]

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 05 月 06 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250506 今日关注 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为 1.13%，深证成指涨跌幅为 1.84%， 创业板指涨跌幅为 1.97%。 申万一级行业表现：计算机、通信、综合在行业涨跌幅榜居前；石油石 化、煤炭、农林牧渔在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 概念板块表现：总体来看，稀土、稀土永磁、连板概念表现相对较好； 银行、医药商业、富时罗素概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | 策略点评 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 资料来源： wind 、粤开证券研究院 | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 二、风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 04 月 30 日 投资要点 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要宽基指数涨多跌少。截止收盘，沪指跌 0.23%， 收报 3279.03 点；深证成指涨 0.51%，收报 9899.82 点；创业板指涨 0.83%， 收报 1948.03 点；科创 50 涨 0.85%，收报 1012.42 点。总体上全天个股涨多 跌少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 3443 只个股上涨，1766 只个股下跌，198 只个 股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 11693 亿元，较上个交易日放量约 1472 亿 元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，计算机、汽车、传媒、电子和 机械设备行业领涨，涨幅分别为 2.33%、1.59%、1.39%、1.31%和 1.30%，银 行、钢铁、建筑材料、交通运输和公用事业领跌，跌幅分别为 2.09%、1.35%、 0.82%、0.77%和 0.72%。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为智能音箱、操作系统、陆股通周增 仓前二十、汽车零部件、在线教育、机器视觉、大数据、人工智能、今日头 条、自主可控、IDC、边缘计算、机器人、工业 4.0、无 ...