Economic Growth Targets - The average GDP growth target for 31 provinces in 2025 is set at 5.3%, slightly lower than the 2024 target of 5.4%[2][3][14]. - 29 provinces have set their GDP growth targets between 5% and 6%, with Tibet having the highest target of "over 7%, striving for 8%" and Qinghai the lowest at "around 4.5%"[2][15]. Fiscal Revenue Goals - The average growth target for local general public budget revenue in 2025 is 2.9%, which is 2.5 percentage points lower than the GDP growth target[5][7][22]. - 24 out of 30 provinces have lowered their fiscal revenue growth targets compared to 2024, with the highest target being 10% for both Xinjiang and Tibet, and the lowest at 1.1% for Jiangxi[5][6][28]. Sector-Specific Targets - Industrial production targets have been generally raised, with Guangdong increasing its target from 5% to around 6% and Tibet setting a high target of 16%[8][30]. - Social retail sales growth targets have been significantly lowered, indicating a need to boost consumer demand, with Hubei adjusting from over 9% to around 7%[8][35]. Employment and Price Stability - The urban unemployment rate target is generally maintained at around 5.5% across most provinces, with a total of 16.51 million new urban jobs expected to be created in 2025[9][39]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth target has been adjusted down to around 2% for most provinces, reflecting current low inflation pressures[9][38]. Key Economic Strategies - Provinces are focusing on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as a priority for 2025, with initiatives to support major consumption and service sectors[10][43]. - Investment strategies emphasize improving investment efficiency rather than merely increasing investment scale, with a focus on new infrastructure and green transformation projects[10][33].

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on China’s Exports - The "Trump 1.0" tariffs affected approximately $370 billion worth of goods, accounting for 68.7% of U.S. imports from China in 2018[3] - Average tariff rates on Chinese imports rose from 3.1% in early 2018 to 21% by the end of 2019, before slightly decreasing to 19.3% in early 2020[3][4] - Before tariff implementation, Chinese exports to the U.S. saw significant increases, with average growth rates of 21.5%, 31.8%, and 14.6% for different tariff lists, compared to an overall export growth of 11.2%[6] Group 2: Export Trends Post-Tariff Implementation - After tariffs were enacted, exports of goods on the "301 tariff" list dropped by 15.1%, while non-tariff list exports grew by 7.9%[7] - The share of Chinese exports to the U.S. fell from 19.1% in 2017 to 15.0% in 2023, while the U.S. share of imports from China decreased from 17.4% to 11.1%[8][47] - Despite a decline in direct exports to the U.S., China's global export share increased from 12.8% in 2017 to 14.2% in 2023[10][47] Group 3: Future Tariff Scenarios and Economic Impact - A 10% tariff increase could lead to a 12% drop in Chinese exports to the U.S. and a 0.3% decrease in China's GDP growth[11] - A potential 20%-30% tariff increase could result in a 24-36% decline in exports to the U.S. and a 0.7%-1.0% reduction in GDP growth[12] - In an extreme scenario with a 60% tariff, exports to the U.S. could plummet by 49%, leading to a 1.4% decrease in GDP growth[12] Group 4: Strategic Responses and Recommendations - China should implement strong countermeasures against U.S. tariffs and enhance negotiation leverage[15] - Increasing domestic demand and fiscal measures are crucial to offset potential declines in external demand[15] - Expanding trade partnerships, particularly with "Belt and Road" countries, is essential for maintaining export growth[15]

Group 1: Implementation Plan Highlights - The implementation plan aims to increase the actual investment ratio of long-term funds towards policy limits, with insurance funds currently at 12% and a potential upper limit of 25%[5] - Large state-owned insurance companies are expected to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares starting in 2025, potentially adding several hundred billion yuan annually to the market[6] - The plan introduces long-cycle assessments for public funds and insurance companies, with a focus on three to five-year performance metrics, increasing the weight of long-term indicators to at least 60%[7] Group 2: Market Comparison and Challenges - As of the end of 2023, long-term funds in China totaled 44.73 trillion yuan, with only 5.14 trillion yuan (6.6%) invested in the stock market, compared to 14.84 trillion USD (17.3%) in the US[5] - A-share companies have shown an average EPS growth of 2.68% from 2014 to 2023, significantly lower than the GDP growth of 5.75% during the same period, indicating weaker profitability[9] - The average annualized return of the CSI 300 index was 5.42%, lower than the S&P 500's 7.55%, highlighting the need for improved company quality and investment value[9] Group 3: Future Policy Optimization - Future policies may include relaxing investment restrictions for long-term funds and adopting a "prudent person" regulatory approach, moving away from strict quantitative limits[15] - There is potential to increase the overseas investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies, which are currently capped at 20% and 15% respectively[18] - The establishment of automatic enrollment mechanisms in pension plans could enhance participation rates, similar to successful models in the US[21]

Economic Performance - In 2024, China's GDP reached 134.9 trillion yuan, marking a 5% year-on-year growth and surpassing the 130 trillion yuan threshold for the first time[1] - The quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, and 5.4%, indicating a "U-shaped" recovery throughout the year[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate was 4.2%, which was lower than the actual growth rate of 5%, leading to a divergence between macro data and micro perceptions[3] Support and Challenges - Key supports for the economy included a surprising rebound in exports, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, and significant increases in manufacturing investment, which rose by 9.2%[10] - Central government infrastructure investments saw a notable increase, with railway and water management investments growing by 13.5% and 41.7%, respectively[10] - Challenges included sluggish consumer spending, with retail sales growing only 3.5%, and a continued decline in the real estate market, where sales area and investment fell by 12.9% and 10.6% respectively[11] Outlook for 2025 - The report suggests setting a growth target of "double 5" for 2025, aiming for both nominal and actual GDP growth around 5%[3] - Three favorable conditions for Q1 2025 include enhanced policies to boost consumption and investment, accelerated project construction, and signs of stabilization in the real estate market[6] - Risks include unresolved debt and liquidity issues in the real estate sector and potential external shocks from increased tariffs under the new U.S. administration[25]

Group 1: Debt Relief Measures - The central government proposed a "6+4+2" debt relief initiative to resolve 12 trillion yuan of hidden debt with 10 trillion yuan over five years, significantly alleviating local government liquidity risks[6] - The initiative aims to transition local governments from emergency states to normal development, enhancing their economic growth capabilities[6] - The debt relief approach emphasizes accountability, ensuring local governments remain responsible for their hidden debts, thus reinforcing fiscal discipline[8] Group 2: Economic Implications - The debt relief measures reflect a shift from "developing through debt relief" to "debt relief through development," indicating a strategic change in fiscal policy[10] - The initiative is expected to save approximately 600 billion yuan in interest payments over five years by replacing high-cost, short-term hidden debts with lower-cost, long-term bonds[15] - The focus on sustainable economic growth is crucial for fiscal sustainability, as economic viability underpins the effectiveness of fiscal policies[13] Group 3: Long-term Considerations - Three key issues post-debt relief include managing short-term liquidity risks, establishing a long-term debt management mechanism, and ensuring debt supports economic development effectively[16] - The need for deeper fiscal and tax reforms is highlighted, particularly in constructing debt and capital budgets and reallocating responsibilities from local to central governments[19] - The alignment of debt expenditure structures with economic growth objectives is essential, ensuring that debt contributes positively to asset creation and economic benefits[25]

Group 1: Fiscal Role in Economic Growth - Fiscal policy is the core of China's economic issues, influencing growth, fluctuations, and risk management[5] - Fiscal measures like tax reductions and increased spending can stimulate consumption and investment[7] - Fiscal policy serves as a bridge between government and market, enhancing market participant engagement[7] Group 2: Understanding Consumption - Consumption and investment should not be viewed as opposing forces; both are essential for economic health[12] - Investment is crucial for long-term supply optimization, while consumption drives immediate demand[13] - The relationship between consumption and investment is interdependent, requiring a balanced approach[12] Group 3: Recommendations for Boosting Consumption - Increase targeted subsidies for specific groups, such as unemployed youth and low-income families, to enhance consumption capacity[23] - Propose a real estate stability fund of approximately 2 trillion yuan to support housing market stability, which can indirectly boost consumer confidence[25] - Implement policies like "trade-in" for consumer goods to stimulate demand, with a focus on durable goods[26] Group 4: Long-term Structural Reforms - Improve national income distribution through tax reforms and increased transfer payments to elevate the share of low-income groups[29] - Optimize fiscal expenditure structure to balance investment and consumption, with a focus on social welfare[31] - Enhance public services for migrant workers to stabilize their expectations and boost consumption demand[35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, suggesting a focus on innovation upgrades, mergers and acquisitions, and international expansion as key investment opportunities for 2025 [3][25]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is currently undergoing structural adjustments and transformations, facing challenges such as declining product prices and slow consumption growth. However, 2025 is expected to present both opportunities and challenges, with a focus on three structural opportunities: innovation upgrades, mergers and acquisitions, and international expansion [3][25]. Opportunity Summary R&D Perspective - Global monetary policy is expected to ease further, reducing funding costs and promoting investment recovery in the pharmaceutical industry. The Chinese government has shifted to a "moderately loose" monetary policy for the first time in 14 years, which is anticipated to support the industry [4][27]. - The rise of new transaction models such as Licence-out and NEW Co is facilitating the return of R&D funds and enhancing collaboration. In the first three quarters of 2024, domestic pharmaceutical companies achieved approximately 73 Licence-out agreements, totaling $33.6 billion, a 100% increase year-on-year [5][28]. - Continuous optimization of the review and approval system is expected to enhance the efficiency of pharmaceutical innovation and R&D, with significant improvements in approval timelines for clinical trials [6][32]. Usage Perspective - The construction of county-level medical communities is accelerating, which is expected to release significant demand for pharmaceuticals and medical devices in grassroots healthcare settings [6][36]. - The implementation of the new national medical insurance drug list is set to facilitate faster hospital admissions for drugs, addressing previous barriers to market entry [9][37]. - The rapid growth of online healthcare services is driving strong sales in online pharmacies, with a market sales volume of 53.2 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a 17.5% year-on-year increase [9][38]. Payment Perspective - The sharing of data on medical insurance platforms is anticipated to create new payment increments for commercial health insurance, enhancing the overall payment landscape for pharmaceuticals [10][41]. - The optimization of medical insurance settlement processes is expected to accelerate cash flow for medical institutions and pharmaceutical companies, promoting stable and healthy industry development [10][47]. Challenge Summary - The acceleration of centralized procurement and price control measures is expected to impose significant pressure on the industry, necessitating enhanced cost control and quality improvement efforts from companies [11][12]. - The normalization of anti-corruption measures in the pharmaceutical sector will require companies to strengthen their academic promotion capabilities [12][15]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to potential tariff policies, may negatively impact pharmaceutical exports, especially to the United States [15][15]. Investment Themes Innovation Upgrades - Continued focus on innovative drugs, AI in drug development, and CXO opportunities is recommended, with specific attention to dual-specific antibodies and GLP-1 drugs expected to lead market growth [15][16][17]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The blood products sector is entering a high-growth phase, with opportunities for consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, particularly for companies acquiring plasma stations [18][20]. - The retail pharmacy sector is expected to see increased consolidation as larger chains acquire smaller competitors amid competitive pressures [21]. International Expansion - The report emphasizes the importance of internationalization, particularly for high-value products such as specialty APIs, biosimilars, and high-end medical devices [22].

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 01 月 05 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：马家进 执业编号：S0300522110002 电话：13645711472 邮箱：majiajin@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】稳增长与防风险——专项债 2024 年回顾与 2025 年展望》2025-01-01 《【粤开宏观】宏观经济治理视角下的增值 税改革：目标、问题与路径》2024-12-29 《【粤开宏观】化债突破之年——2024 年 财政债务形势回顾与 2025 年展望》 2024-12-25 《【粤开宏观】如何理解全国财政工作会议 的要点？》2024-12-24 《【粤开宏观】回稳有望：2024 年房地产 形势总结与 2025 年展望》2024-12-23 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】如何全方位扩大内需稳 增长？ 摘要 中央经济工作会议对明年宏观政策的定调是"更加积极有为"，除了财政政策 从"积极"到"更加积极"、货币政策从"稳健"到"适度宽松"以外，最大 的变化是从"着力扩大 ...

Group 1: Goals of VAT Reform - The VAT reform aims to stabilize the macro tax burden, which is crucial for addressing economic fluctuations and ensuring fiscal sustainability[10] - It seeks to stabilize expectations, enhancing the predictability of the tax system for businesses and individuals[13] - The reform is designed to promote high-quality development by optimizing resource allocation and improving economic efficiency[36] Group 2: Current Issues in VAT System - The VAT system suffers from unclear functional positioning, carrying excessive policy objectives that dilute its primary revenue-raising function[39] - Legislative progress on VAT has been slow, leading to instability in microeconomic expectations among businesses[41] - The current VAT structure features multiple tax rates, which complicates compliance and distorts resource allocation[51] Group 3: Implementation Pathways for VAT Reform - Optimizing the functional positioning of VAT is essential to maintain a stable macro tax burden and enhance revenue collection capabilities[64] - Accelerating the legislative process for VAT is necessary to solidify existing reforms and stabilize market expectations[87] - The government should embed the consumption-based principle into the inter-regional revenue-sharing mechanism to promote tax equity and market unification[92]

目 录 一、2025 年"更加积极的财政政策"主要体现在五个方面 .................................................................................................... 3 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 2 / 5 宏观点评 一、如何理解全国财政工作会议的要点？ 具体我们可以看到 2025 年的财政政策工作有一系列的重点。 其五，财政在推动改革领域也做了很多的部署。这里集中体现在我们要落实三中全 会所提出的一系列的改革，包括适度加强中央事权。同时，对于一些消费税的部分品目， 适当下放到地方政府和后移征收环节，"一上一下"来缓解地方政府当前的财政状况。 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2024 年 12 月 24 日 投资要点 宏观研究 会议的要点？ 【粤开宏观】如何理解全国财政工作 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 《【粤开宏观】回稳有望：2024 年房地产 形势总结与 2025 年展望》 ...