顾与影响 - 数据来源：Wind，大公国际整理 十四届三中全会后，中央和地方选择 2,500 多家企业，按照现代企业制度要 求进行试点，逐步推行公司制股份制改革；1993 年 12 月，出台《中华人民共和 国公司法》，确立了政府与国有企业的出资关系1。十八届三中全会明确提出要"实 现以管企业为主向管资本为主转变"，依托政府与国企间的出资关系进一步突出 监管重点、改进监管方式。改组组建国有资本投资、运营公司，将两类公司打造 成为管资本为主的市场化运营平台，更好落实出资人代表机构的导向意志，服务 国家重大战略、区域发展战略和产业政策规划。中国国新控股有限责任公司和中 国诚通控股集团有限公司作为国务院国有企业改革领导小组确定的首批国有资 本运营公司试点，已均于 2022 年末转入持续深化改革阶段；中国宝武、国投、 招商局集团、华润集团和中国建材等 5 家企业正式转为国有资本投资公司；航空 工业集团、国家电投、国家能源集团、国机集团、中铝集团、中国远洋海运、中 粮集团、中国五矿、通用技术集团、中交集团、保利集团和中广核等 12 家企业 继续深化试点。同时，一批省级国有资本投资、运营公司改革试点单位先后设立 或明确，并 ...

专题研究 中国式现代化 技术研究部（研究院） 戚旻婧 舒蕴泽 2024 年 7 月 10 日 中国式现代化的"前世"可以追溯到 19 世纪中叶，那时西方列强的坚船利 炮打破了中国封闭的国门，中国被迫卷入世界现代化的洪流之中。这一时期的现 代化，更多的是在外力强迫下的被动开启，表现为对西方现代化的模仿与学习， 即"师夷长技以制夷"。从洋务运动到戊戌变法，再到辛亥革命，中国经历了从 器物层面现代化到文化层面现代化的变革探索，但均未能彻底改变中国半殖民地 专题研究|中国式现代化 改革开放后，以邓小平同志为代表的中国共产党人，在总结国内外经验教训 的基础上，提出了"中国式的现代化"概念，强调要走出一条符合中国国情的现 代化道路。邓小平同志把中国式现代化目标首次综合表述为"小康"，并提出了 "三步走"战略，明确了中国式现代化的阶段性目标和步骤。同时，他强调改革 开放是当代中国命运的关键抉择，必须坚定不移地推进。在这一时期，中国实现 了从计划经济向市场经济的转变，经济快速发展，人民生活水平显著提高。 图 2 中国式现代化的"今生" 资料来源：公开资料，大公国际整理 中国式现代化的"前世今生" 一、中国式现代化的"前世"： ...

大公国际：落地落细"五篇大文章"，提高金融服务实 2024 年 5 月，为深入贯彻落实中央金融工作会议关于做好"五篇大文章" 的决策部署，围绕发展新质生产力，把"五篇大文章"落地落细，提高金融服务 实体经济的质量和水平，国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于银行保险业做好金融 "五篇大文章"的指导意见》（金发〔2024〕11 号，以下简称"《指导意见》"）。 《指导意见》强调了做好"五篇大文章"的重要性，明确时间要求为 5 年，最终 目标是形成多层次、广覆盖、多样化、可持续的服务体系,有力推动新质生产力 发展，对金融机构做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融指 出了具体的工作方向，具体如下： 《指导意见》针对科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融五 个方面确定了主要目标，指导金融机构未来工作。科技金融上，弥补现有研发和 科技成果转化方面资金和保险保障的不足，对科技型企业提供全生命周期的金融 服务；完善绿色金融标准和评价体系，提高金融支持和绿色保险覆盖面，提升银 行保险的 ESG 表现；提高普惠金融体系的质量，逐步健全普惠保险体系；规范养 老保险发展，拓展养老金融产品，更好满足养老金融需求；数字 ...

债市研究 展——5 月 PMI 数据解读 摘要：5 月制造业 PMI 由扩张转为收缩，各分项指标多数下降，工作日减少 和极端天气等因素影响生产和需求放缓。生产方面，需求走弱影响下生产扩张幅 度减缓，生产优于需求，或出现产能过剩压力。需求方面，新订单、新出口订单、 在手订单均走弱且低于临界点，内外需均不足但内需强于外需。价格方面，出厂 价格涨幅低于原材料价格涨幅，不利于企业利润积累，预计 PPI 降幅将收窄。库 存方面，购进价格明显上涨、需求端走弱影响下企业补库意愿不足，产成品去化 快于原材料。企业类型方面，生产带动大型企业扩张加速，进口拖累影响下小型 企业景气程度最低，需要货币财政政策扶持。非制造业持续扩张但增速略有减缓， 超长期特别国债带动作用下建筑业持续扩张。 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 中国:制造业PMI 中国:非制造业PMI:商务活动 中国综合PMI:产出指数 数据来源：Wind，大公国际整理 债市回顾 |债市研究 需求方面，新订单、新出口订单、在手订单均走弱且低于临界点，内外需均 不足但内需强于外需。5 月新订单指数为 49.6%，环比下降 1.5 个百分点，新出 口订单下降 2.3 个 ...

Group 1: Reform and Economic Development - The meeting emphasized the importance of deepening reforms to drive development and modernize China's economy[2] - It highlighted the need to address key issues and obstacles in the current economic system to facilitate high-quality development[20] - The goal is to enhance the socialist market economy system, integrating both public and private sectors[5] Group 2: Energy and Investment - Reforming the electricity system to focus on renewable energy is crucial for energy security and green development[8] - Developing venture capital to support technology innovation is essential for overcoming financing challenges faced by tech enterprises[8] - The report noted that 12,400 specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been cultivated, with 1,200 recognized as "little giants"[8] Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - The current economic landscape faces issues such as insufficient consumer improvement and weak corporate profitability[14] - The meeting called for a coordinated approach to policy-making to ensure effective implementation of macroeconomic policies[14] - It stressed the importance of addressing the main contradictions in society to enhance the people's sense of gain and happiness[14]

宏观研究 大公国际：前 4 个月我国经济持续向好 扩内需政策 待进一步发力 技术研究部（研究院） 张晗菡 2023 年 5 月 20 日 今年以来，我国持续加大宏观调控力度，在转方式、调结构、提质量、增效 益方面持续发力，政策效应不断显现。前 4 个月，我国消费总体保持稳定增长， 投资在基建和制造业拉动下保持较快增长，出口增长好于预期，工业生产持续加 快。单看 4 月份，我国经济呈现"供给强于需求、外需强于内需"的主要特征。 展望后市，预计扩内需相关的政策将进一步加码发力，助力经济运行持续向好。 一、前 4 个月消费总体保持稳定增长，服务消费、线上消费拉动作用显著 今年以来，文旅消费、数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费等热点为消费市场不 断增添新的增长动能，消费总体保持稳定增长态势。前 4 个月，社会消费品零售 总额（以下简称"社零"）同比增长 4.1%(-0.6pct1)，从主要特征来看：一是服 务消费表现优于商品消费。受益于春季出游持续活跃，与之相关的餐饮、交通出 行、文旅休闲等服务类消费快速增长，前 4 个月，服务零售额同比增长 8.4%，高 于同期商品零售额增速 4.9 个百分点，餐饮收入同比增长 9.3% ...

Rating Adjustments - One issuer's rating outlook was downgraded by Fitch, with Guoren Property Insurance Co., Ltd. receiving a negative outlook due to a Q1 loss of 110 million and insufficient shareholder capital injection[1] - Moody's downgraded the issuer rating of Agile Group Holdings Limited to Ca, reflecting liquidity issues and the failure to pay interest on $483 million of 6.05% senior notes due in 2025[5] Debt Market Observations - The Ministry of Finance announced plans to issue 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds, focusing on key projects in technology innovation and regional development[13] - The total number of bonds issued in the primary market was 846, with a net financing amount of 375.33 billion yuan, indicating a net inflow[22] - Credit bond issuance increased by 13.21% week-on-week, with an overall decline in issuance costs by 28.73 basis points[22] Economic Indicators - In April, the retail sales growth rate was 2.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with rural areas showing a higher growth rate than urban areas[10] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.2% year-on-year in the first four months, with the manufacturing sector showing the fastest growth[10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment outlook for the tourism industry, emphasizing its role as a key driver of economic growth and social development [2][4]. Core Insights - The tourism industry has become a strategic pillar of the national economy, significantly contributing to employment, domestic consumption, and overall economic growth [2][4]. - Recent government policies have accelerated the recovery of the domestic tourism market, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, with domestic travel reaching 4.9 trillion yuan in revenue, a 140.3% year-on-year increase [3]. - The report highlights the importance of innovation and quality improvement in the tourism sector, advocating for a modern tourism system that integrates cultural and technological advancements [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Support - Multiple government initiatives have been launched to enhance the tourism sector, including the "14th Five-Year Plan for Cultural and Tourism Development" and the "National Tourism Leisure Development Outline (2022-2030)" [2][3]. - The introduction of visa-free policies for several countries is expected to boost international tourism [3]. Market Performance - In 2023, domestic travel reached 4.89 billion trips, a 93.3% increase year-on-year, while tourism revenue was approximately 4.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a robust recovery [3]. - Cross-border travel has also seen significant growth, with 424 million entries and exits recorded in 2023, a 266.5% increase compared to the previous year [3]. Economic Impact - The tourism sector is identified as a new engine for economic growth, driving consumption in related industries such as transportation, accommodation, and dining [4]. - The development of tourism has enhanced the international image of the country and attracted foreign investment, contributing to the optimization of the economic structure [4][5]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a steady increase in tourism demand, supported by favorable policies and a focus on sustainable and innovative practices [5]. - The integration of tourism with cultural, technological, and ecological elements is expected to foster diversified development and enhance the overall quality of the tourism experience [5].

Supply Side - In April, the production index rose to 52.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a continued strengthening of production post-Spring Festival[2] - The industrial added value has shown year-on-year growth for each month in 2024, with a 4.3% increase in profits for industrial enterprises in the first quarter, reflecting robust production activity[2] Demand Side - The new orders index fell to 51.1%, down 1.9 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a slowdown in demand growth[14] - New export orders decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 50.6%, suggesting that external demand is recovering but at a slower pace than domestic demand[14] Price Dynamics - The purchasing price index increased by 3.5 percentage points to 54.0%, while the factory price index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 49.1%, indicating pressure on corporate profit recovery due to shrinking factory prices[16] - The gap between factory prices and purchasing prices widened from -3.1% to -4.9%, suggesting a constriction in profit margins for enterprises[16] Inventory Trends - The raw material inventory index remained at 48.1%, indicating a contraction, while finished goods inventory decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 47.3%, reflecting a faster depletion of finished goods compared to raw materials[5] - The difference between finished goods and raw materials inventory shifted from 0.8% to -0.8%, indicating a proactive destocking approach by enterprises amid rising purchasing prices[5] Business Outlook - The manufacturing PMI stood at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, but still within the expansion zone, indicating a stable economic recovery[13] - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 51.2%, still above the expansion threshold, providing momentum for steady economic growth[19]

行业研究 行业研究 |煤炭行业 煤炭行业 大公国际：2024 年煤炭行业二季度展望 文/卢佳敏 摘要 2024年一季度，受节假日及安监趋严的影响，原煤产量同比有所下降，下游需求偏 弱，煤炭价格下行。预计 2024 年二季度，煤炭市场关系延续前期趋势，总体保持基本 平衡，煤炭价格将继续呈下行趋势，但存在阶段性反弹，同时长协及下游需求的改善等 因素为价格提供一定支撑。煤炭企业盈利环比变化不大。煤炭行业整体信用水平依然保 持稳定。 正文 政策环境 2024年一季度，煤炭行业政策集中于强化煤矿生产安全和建立煤炭产能储备制度， 强化煤炭兜底保障作用。二季度，仍需关注煤矿生产安全。 2024年1月，国务院总理李强签署国务院令，公布《煤矿安全生产条例》（以下简 称《条例》），自2024 年5月1日起施行。《条例》的颁布和实施，有利于全面规范煤 矿安全生产工作，进一步落实煤矿企业安全生产主体责任，强化煤矿安全监管监察部门 职责，对提升本质安全水平、促进煤矿安全生产形势稳定好转具有重要意义。 2024 年 3 月 28 日，山西省人大会议通过决议，将《山西省资源税税目税率表》中 “煤”税目的原矿税率修改为 10%（原为8%）， ...