政策研究 政策研究|民营经济发展 民营经济发展 大公国际：从 2025 年民营企业座谈会看民营经济 发展新机遇与挑战 会议聚焦"科技与民生"、"技术与安全"等多个维度，进一步明确民营经济发展核 心方向。 本次会议参会企业聚焦"科技与民生"两大领域，既有以阿里巴巴集团控股有限公 司等为代表的互联网企业，又有以新希望控股集团有限公司等代表民生领域的企业；同 时也兼顾"技术与安全"两个维度，既有具备关键核心技术的华为技术有限公司、比亚 迪股份有限公司、杭州宇树科技有限公司、小米科技有限责任公司等新兴领域名企，又 有奇安信科技集团股份有限公司这类信息安全领域企业。整体来看，会议安排进一步明 确了在"十四五"后期的核心发展方向：以科技创新为引擎，聚焦高端制造、绿色转型 和数字经济，同时推动传统产业升级，强化产业链安全。 文/崔爱巧、范昱希 摘要 日前，习近平总书记在京出席民营企业座谈会并发表重要讲话，本次会议释放多个 信号，包括但不限于发展方向、解决民营企业难题、政策指引等多个维度，充分鼓舞了 民营企业士气，并对民营企业高质量、健康发展做出进一步指示。 正文 日前，习近平总书记在京出席民营企业座谈会并发表重要讲话，相较 ...

政策研究 政策研究|民营经济发展 民营经济发展 大公国际：从 2025 年民营企业座谈会看民营经济 发展新机遇与挑战 文/崔爱巧、范昱希 摘要 日前，习近平总书记在京出席民营企业座谈会并发表重要讲话，本次会议释放多个 信号，包括但不限于发展方向、解决民营企业难题、政策指引等多个维度，充分鼓舞了 民营企业士气，并对民营企业高质量、健康发展做出进一步指示。 正文 日前，习近平总书记在京出席民营企业座谈会并发表重要讲话，相较于 2018 年给 民营企业"打气"，本次会议更像是在吹奏进攻号角，"前景广阔"、"大有可为"、"大显 身手"、"正当其时"等关键词充分鼓舞民营企业高涨情绪，"扎扎实实落实促进"、"坚决 执行不打折扣"等政策指导更是一剂强心针，充分鼓舞了民营企业士气，并对民营企业 高质量、健康发展做出进一步指示。以下将针对部分会议信号谈谈民营经济发展的新机 遇与挑战： 本次会议上，习近平总书记强调当前民营经济发展面临的困难和挑战具有以下特征： "局部的"、"暂时的"、"能够克服的"，会议政策重点在于解决融资难、拖欠账款、行业 准入公平等深层次问题。经过分析，民营企业融资难、融资贵主要体现于结构性矛盾与 信用分层 ...

Group 1: Importance of Private Enterprises - Private economy plays an irreplaceable role in China's economic development, with over 90% of enterprises being private[2] - Xi Jinping emphasized that the private economy can only grow stronger, not weaker, highlighting its significance in modernizing China[2] Group 2: Market Confidence and Growth Potential - The success of DeepSeek and the film "Nezha" demonstrates the strong vitality of private enterprises, achieving low-cost and high-output results[3] - These examples reveal the potential for private economy growth in digitalization, intelligence, greening, and internationalization trends[3] Group 3: Policy Support for Private Enterprises - Government support is crucial for the success of private enterprises, providing favorable conditions for innovation and development[4] - Xi Jinping's commitment to support private enterprises during difficulties aims to enhance their vitality through effective policy measures[5] Group 4: Strategies for Development - Continuous optimization of the business environment is necessary to ensure fair competition and improve financing conditions for private enterprises[5] - Emphasis on targeted policies for different types and stages of private enterprises to better meet their needs and promote growth[5] Group 5: Innovation as a Key Driver - Increased R&D investment and participation in national technology projects are essential for private enterprises to maintain stability and advance[6] - Private enterprises should focus on transforming technological achievements into practical applications to enhance quality and efficiency[6]

大公国际：六部门发文规范供应链金融业务 征求意见，助力供应链类证券化产品高质量 发展 结构融资部 曾凤智 2025 年 2 月 6 日，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、最高人民法院、国家发 展改革委、商务部及市场监管总局等六部门就《关于规范供应链金融业务 引导 供应链信息服务机构更好服务中小企业融资有关事宜的通知（征求意见稿）》（以 下简称"《通知》"）公开征求意见。《通知》共 21 条内容，旨在提升金融服务 实体经济质效，优化中小企业融资环境，强化供应链金融规范，防控相关业务风 险。供应链类资产证券化产品是供应链金融的重要工具，底层资产高度依赖供应 链数据的真实性和透明度，核心企业信用状况与供应链类资产证券化产品信用质 量息息相关，《通知》的发布为供应链类资产证券化产品发行、信息披露和风险 管理提供政策支持，助力供应链类资产证券化产品高质量发展。本文结合《通知》 要求及供应链类资产证券化产品特点重点分析《通知》对供应链类资产证券化产 品影响。 一、《通知》起草背景 近年来，随着供应链金融加快发展，供应链信息服务机构通过搭建供应链信 息服务系统，为各类供应链金融活动提供信息服务和技术支撑。其中，部分供应 链核心企 ...

行业研究 行业研究|水泥行业 水泥行业 2025 年水泥行业展望：需求维持偏弱，供给预期优化 文/白迪 陈杰 摘要 2024 年，由于房地产市场持续处于深度调整阶段，叠加基础设施投资增速持续放缓， 水泥行业需求难以得到有效提振，国内水泥价格全年呈现"低位徘徊、震荡回升"的走 势，前三季度行业盈利情况同比明显下滑，但盈利情况较上半年有所修复。展望2025年， 在水泥行业积极开展行业自律和错峰生产的预期下，水泥价格水平或受供给优化将在一 定范围内有所修复，盈利状况或较 2024 年有所好转，但由于需求预计仍将维持偏弱态 势，水泥价格反弹动力有限，结合成本端或难有明显改善，行业盈利状况保持谨慎预期。 正文 一、行业政策 2023 年以来，一系列政策出台促进水泥行业供给侧结构性改革；其中，节能降碳和 产能置换成为影响水泥行业发展的两个重要因素。 2023 年以来，一系列政策出台推进水泥行业供给侧结构性改革，促进行业转型升级。 其中，节能降碳和产能置换成为影响水泥行业发展的两个重要因素。 节能降碳方面，在"双碳目标"的引领下，节能降碳成为水泥行业发展的"关键词"。 2023 年 6 月，发改委等五部门发布《工业重点领域 ...

行业研究 行业研究|零售行业 零售行业 文/周春云 摘要 2024 年，在消费品以旧换新政策带动下，消费市场总体保持平稳增长，服务零售对 消费增长形成重要支撑，网络零售占比持续提升；居民收入和消费均保持增长，但增速 有所下滑，全年 CPI 走势偏弱，我国物价仍处于低位。2024 年，国家层面陆续出台一系 列相关政策支持"两新"行动，消费品以旧换新工作取得积极成效；2025 年 1 月出台 《关于 2025 年加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，增加了家 电产品以旧换新补贴范围，并对购买手机、平板、智能手表手环 3 类数码产品实施购新 补贴，预计 2025 年，政策主基调仍将是消费品以旧换新。在电商等线上平台冲击以及 百货"闭店潮"下，零售企业面临较大盈利压力，2024 年前三季度，零售行业企业盈利 整体下行；未来随着《零售业创新提升工程实施方案》的逐步落地实施，零售业发展困 境或将有所好转，盈利能力或将有所提升。截至 2024 年末，零售行业存续主体整体级 别较高，存续债券期限结构较为分散，零售企业整体债务压力不大。 正文 一、行业概况 2024 年，在消费品以旧换新政策带动下，消费市场总 ...

宏观经济 大公国际：美国近期政策调整的多重影响：关税、物流 与货币体系变化 技术研究部（研究院） 宏观债市组 2025 年 2 月 8 日 自美国总统特朗普再次就任以来，美国国家治理理念强调"美国优先"战略， 着力强化本国经济竞争力与自主性。这一战略转变促使美国在关税、物流等领域 采取较为激进的政策调整，凸显了美国在国际贸易中的单边主义倾向。同时，为 应对美元购买力下降和通货膨胀风险，美国部分州政府陆续宣布将黄金和白银认 定为法定货币。这些变化不仅对中美经贸关系产生一定影响，还可能进一步加剧 全球市场的不确定性，并对全球供应链、资本流动及金融市场稳定性构成挑战。 一、美国对华加征关税新政 近期，中美经贸问题再度升温，双方先后出台进出口制裁新举措，涉及到关 税加征、市场准入限制以及出口管制等方面，中美贸易局势再添变数。2025 年 2 月，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，对所有进口自中国的商品加征 10%的关税。美 方以"芬太尼问题"为由，指责中国并实施制裁。作为回应，中国国务院关税税 则委员会宣布，自 2025 年 2 月 10 日起，对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关 税，包括煤炭、液化天然气、原油等。 此次贸易摩 ...

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Trump's presidency marks a significant shift in U.S.-China trade relations, emphasizing "America First" policies[1] - Historical context shows that U.S. trade deficits and domestic industry concerns drive current trade strategies[3] - China's trade surplus with the U.S. reached $3.72 trillion since joining the WTO, averaging $186 billion annually[6] Group 2: Tariff Policy Implications - Tariffs are a key tool for the Trump administration to balance foreign trade relations, with a focus on industry security and geopolitical considerations[3] - The average most-favored-nation tariff rate for the U.S. is approximately 2.2%, but potential trade conflicts could raise this to over 60% for China[7] - Trump's tax policies aim to reduce corporate tax rates from 25% to 15%, encouraging domestic manufacturing and investment[5] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations for China - China should enhance its global trade and investment strategies, leveraging initiatives like the Belt and Road to mitigate tariff impacts[10] - Adjusting the RMB exchange rate may be necessary to counteract U.S. tariffs, with potential depreciation to offset trade barriers[11] - Establishing overseas manufacturing facilities can help avoid tariffs and strengthen global supply chains[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit quality outlook for the financing guarantee industry in 2025, with a focus on supporting small and micro enterprises, agriculture, and technological innovation [3][5][46]. Core Insights - The financing guarantee industry is expected to face operational pressure due to a contraction in bond guarantee business and a cautious approach to market-oriented loan guarantees, with profitability continuing to be under pressure [3][4][19]. - The industry is anticipated to see a stable competitive landscape, with credit quality remaining stable and liquidity risks being manageable [3][4][32]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies in supporting the financing guarantee sector, particularly in enhancing support for strategic emerging industries and alleviating financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises [5][6][7]. Industry Policy - In 2024, policies will continue to emphasize increasing direct financing, with a focus on resource allocation to small and micro enterprises, agriculture, and technological innovation [4][5]. - By 2025, it is expected that financing guarantee institutions will receive more support from local governments, enhancing their ability to support strategic emerging industries [5][6]. Business Operations - The focus of market-oriented business for guarantee institutions remains on urban investment bonds, although the scale of bond guarantee business is expected to decline due to various factors [9][10][18]. - The report notes a significant increase in the issuance of overseas bonds, with a total of 379.60 billion yuan in new overseas bond guarantees from January to November 2024, compared to only 0.50 billion yuan in 2023 [13]. Asset Quality - The report indicates that the guarantee institutions will face significant compensation pressure in their loan guarantee business, but overall asset quality is expected to remain controllable [22][25]. - The structure of assets will continue to prioritize high liquidity assets, with a focus on managing credit risk and liquidity [22][25]. Profitability - Profitability for guarantee institutions is projected to remain under pressure due to low guarantee fee rates and declining income from funding operations [26][31]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in guarantee business income, with the income from interest-bearing assets also being compressed [26][31]. Liquidity - The liquidity risk for guarantee institutions is expected to remain manageable, with high liquidity assets effectively covering interest-bearing debts and compensation shocks from loan guarantees [32][38]. - The overall leverage level of guarantee institutions is low, and they face minimal pressure from on-balance-sheet debt management [32][38]. Capital Adequacy - The capital replenishment demand for market-oriented guarantee institutions is expected to decrease, but there will be a differentiation in capital levels across the industry [39][41]. - The report highlights that while some government-backed guarantee institutions may see an increase in capital replenishment needs, the overall pace of capital expansion in the industry is expected to slow down [39][41]. Credit Quality - The credit quality of guarantee institutions engaged in bond guarantee business is expected to remain high, with a significant proportion rated AAA [46][48]. - The report indicates that the overall credit quality of the financing guarantee industry will remain stable, supported by the strong credit levels of major institutions [46][48].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The traditional "pig cycle" has failed since 2022, with significant changes in the industry structure and market behavior, leading to a shift in focus from profitability to cash flow analysis [1][12][16] - The supply price elasticity of pork is low, while demand remains stable, contributing to the difficulty in maintaining long-term price stability [2][12] - The industry has experienced three complete "pig cycles" from 2010 to 2022, characterized by cyclical price fluctuations driven by breeding systems and market structures [4][6][10] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Pork is a major protein source in China, with per capita consumption at 30.5 kg in 2023, leading to a market value of approximately 2 trillion [2] - The average price of live pigs in the national market was 15.67 yuan/kg as of December 19, 2024, down over 25% from mid-year highs [2] Historical "Pig Cycles" - The report outlines three cycles from 2010 to 2022, with significant price increases and decreases influenced by external factors such as disease outbreaks and policy changes [4][6] - The last cycle saw a price increase of nearly 300% from May 2018 to October 2019, primarily driven by African swine fever [6][12] Changes in Industry Structure - The industry has shifted from a pyramid breeding system dominated by smallholders to a more professionalized and scaled operation, leading to increased market concentration [12][13] - The rise of large-scale enterprises has altered market dynamics, reducing the predictability of the traditional four-year cycle [12][13] Cash Flow and Credit Risk Analysis - The focus on cash flow is critical, as the industry faces a prolonged period of losses since 2022, with cash flow being a key determinant of operational sustainability [16][17] - As of December 16, 2024, the total bond issuance in the industry was 626.69 billion yuan, with a concentration among major players like Muyuan Foods and WH Group [19][20] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a cautious increase in supply in 2025, with a slight decline in the average price level compared to 2024, influenced by stable demand and improved breeding efficiency [30][42] - The overall credit risk in the industry is expected to remain manageable, with differentiation between strong and weak players based on cost control and financing capabilities [44][45]