信用风险展望 收费公路行业 大公国际：收费公路行业 2025 年信用风险展望—— 经营稳健行更远，智能路网享畅通 公用一部 |费颖 羊汝鸣 朱超 2025 年 2 月 26 日 摘要 2024 年，随着外部环境的改善、经济企稳向好和公众出行意愿的增强，全国公路客运量及 货运量同比均有所增长，主要省级收费公路发债企业经营状态良好，受到前一年高基数影响， 大部分省级发债企业 2024 年上半年通行费收入同比有所下降。2024 年以来，我国收费公路行 业新发行债券规模较大、整体期限较短，发债主体整体信用级别较高。预计 2025 年，收费公 路发债企业将继续维持良好的偿债能力，信用风险较小，需关注各地公路差异化收费政策导向、 交通物流降本提质增效以及公路数字化转型、智慧公路建设等。综合来看，收费公路行业 2025 年的信用展望为稳定。 行业发展：2024 年，随着外部环境的改善、经济企稳向好和公众出行意愿的增强，全国公 路客运量及货运量同比均有所增长；预计 2025 年，全国公路运输将继续维持稳健发展趋势。 行业格局：收费公路行业投资规模大、准入门槛高且回收周期长；在全国机动车保有量稳 步增长的情况下，收费公路客运量 ...

Investment Rating - The credit outlook for the toll road industry in 2025 is stable, indicating a low credit risk for bond-issuing enterprises in this sector [2][36]. Core Insights - The toll road industry is expected to maintain a stable development trend in 2025, supported by improved external conditions, economic stabilization, and increased public travel willingness [2][5]. - The industry faces competition from other transportation modes such as rail and air, but toll roads remain a crucial part of the transportation infrastructure for short-distance travel [20][21]. - Recent government policies are promoting toll road reforms, digital transformation, and differentiated charging mechanisms, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs in the logistics sector [21][24]. Industry Development - In 2024, both passenger and freight volumes on national roads are projected to grow year-on-year, with passenger volume reaching 11.781 billion trips, a 157.64% increase [7]. - The total length of national expressways reached 183,600 kilometers by the end of 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 0.64 million kilometers [5]. Industry Structure - The toll road industry is characterized by high investment requirements, strict entry barriers, and long recovery periods. The growth in vehicle ownership supports the demand for toll road services [17][18]. - The supply side of the industry is influenced by economic development and policy planning, with significant investments expected in western regions under the Belt and Road Initiative [17][18]. Industry Policy - Recent policies have focused on optimizing toll road construction, promoting digital upgrades, and enhancing the green technology level of infrastructure [21][22]. - The government is encouraging private sector participation in toll road projects, with specific guidelines for public-private partnerships [22][23]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, most provincial toll road enterprises experienced a decline in revenue and net profit due to high base effects from the previous year [28][35]. - Despite the revenue decline, the overall debt servicing capability remains strong, with expectations for stable operational conditions in 2025 [28][35]. Credit Quality - The toll road industry saw a significant issuance of bonds in 2024, totaling 621.27 billion yuan, with a high proportion of AAA-rated issuers [36][38]. - The industry faces short-term repayment pressures due to a large volume of bonds maturing in 2025, but overall credit quality remains high [36][38].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the government financing guarantee industry following the implementation of new regulations aimed at enhancing risk management and government support [1][3]. Core Insights - The newly issued "Management Measures for the Development of Government Financing Guarantee" aims to standardize the behavior of government financing guarantee institutions, promoting high-quality development and enhancing credit levels [1][4]. - The regulations emphasize the importance of focusing on key target groups and vulnerable areas, preventing institutions from blindly expanding their business scope [2]. - The measures require the establishment of a comprehensive risk management system and dynamic management of government financing guarantee institutions by local financial authorities [2][3]. Summary by Sections Policy Interpretation - The new regulations will take effect on March 1, 2025, and are designed to guide the high-quality development of government financing guarantee institutions [1]. - The regulations will help institutions manage business risks and improve their risk control capabilities, leading to increased government support [1][4]. Business Development - The regulations restrict government financing guarantee institutions from providing guarantees for government bond issuance and financing platforms, thereby mitigating concentration risk [2]. - Institutions are encouraged to maintain a focus on their core business areas, which will promote stable development [2]. Risk Control - A comprehensive risk management framework is mandated, with provincial financial departments required to implement a list management system for these institutions [2]. - Enhanced external constraints through classification supervision and market-based credit ratings are also emphasized [2]. Government Support - The regulations allow for performance evaluations to consider the scale of policy-related business and service quality, potentially lowering profit requirements [3]. - Local governments are encouraged to provide support through capital supplementation and risk compensation, enhancing the institutions' resilience and credit status [3][4].

Group 1: Policy Overview - The central document titled "Opinions on Further Deepening Rural Reform and Promoting Comprehensive Rural Revitalization" includes six key areas of focus[2] - Emphasis on ensuring national food security and preventing large-scale poverty return while enhancing rural industry, construction, and governance levels[2] Group 2: Technological Empowerment - The document highlights the need for localized development of new agricultural productivity through technological innovation[3] - Key areas for technological breakthroughs include seed industry revitalization, agricultural machinery, and smart agriculture[3] - The integration of AI, data, and low-altitude technologies in smart agriculture presents significant opportunities for efficiency and sustainability[3] Group 3: Industrial Empowerment - The document encourages the development of distinctive county economies and supports industries with high employment capacity[4] - Rural e-commerce is maturing, providing farmers with better profit-sharing opportunities and fostering new industry projects[4] - Successful practices include deep integration of agriculture with tertiary industries, such as "rural + culture" and "rural + tourism"[4] Group 4: Financial Empowerment - The document calls for innovative financing mechanisms to support major agricultural and rural projects[5] - Increased investment from central budgets, special bonds, and local government bonds is essential for rural development[5] - The promotion of flexible financial products, such as collateral financing loans for agricultural facilities, is highlighted[5]

政策研究 政策研究|民营经济发展 民营经济发展 大公国际：从 2025 年民营企业座谈会看民营经济 发展新机遇与挑战 会议聚焦"科技与民生"、"技术与安全"等多个维度，进一步明确民营经济发展核 心方向。 本次会议参会企业聚焦"科技与民生"两大领域，既有以阿里巴巴集团控股有限公 司等为代表的互联网企业，又有以新希望控股集团有限公司等代表民生领域的企业；同 时也兼顾"技术与安全"两个维度，既有具备关键核心技术的华为技术有限公司、比亚 迪股份有限公司、杭州宇树科技有限公司、小米科技有限责任公司等新兴领域名企，又 有奇安信科技集团股份有限公司这类信息安全领域企业。整体来看，会议安排进一步明 确了在"十四五"后期的核心发展方向：以科技创新为引擎，聚焦高端制造、绿色转型 和数字经济，同时推动传统产业升级，强化产业链安全。 文/崔爱巧、范昱希 摘要 日前，习近平总书记在京出席民营企业座谈会并发表重要讲话，本次会议释放多个 信号，包括但不限于发展方向、解决民营企业难题、政策指引等多个维度，充分鼓舞了 民营企业士气，并对民营企业高质量、健康发展做出进一步指示。 正文 日前，习近平总书记在京出席民营企业座谈会并发表重要讲话，相较 ...

政策研究 政策研究|民营经济发展 民营经济发展 大公国际：从 2025 年民营企业座谈会看民营经济 发展新机遇与挑战 文/崔爱巧、范昱希 摘要 日前，习近平总书记在京出席民营企业座谈会并发表重要讲话，本次会议释放多个 信号，包括但不限于发展方向、解决民营企业难题、政策指引等多个维度，充分鼓舞了 民营企业士气，并对民营企业高质量、健康发展做出进一步指示。 正文 日前，习近平总书记在京出席民营企业座谈会并发表重要讲话，相较于 2018 年给 民营企业"打气"，本次会议更像是在吹奏进攻号角，"前景广阔"、"大有可为"、"大显 身手"、"正当其时"等关键词充分鼓舞民营企业高涨情绪，"扎扎实实落实促进"、"坚决 执行不打折扣"等政策指导更是一剂强心针，充分鼓舞了民营企业士气，并对民营企业 高质量、健康发展做出进一步指示。以下将针对部分会议信号谈谈民营经济发展的新机 遇与挑战： 本次会议上，习近平总书记强调当前民营经济发展面临的困难和挑战具有以下特征： "局部的"、"暂时的"、"能够克服的"，会议政策重点在于解决融资难、拖欠账款、行业 准入公平等深层次问题。经过分析，民营企业融资难、融资贵主要体现于结构性矛盾与 信用分层 ...

Group 1: Importance of Private Enterprises - Private economy plays an irreplaceable role in China's economic development, with over 90% of enterprises being private[2] - Xi Jinping emphasized that the private economy can only grow stronger, not weaker, highlighting its significance in modernizing China[2] Group 2: Market Confidence and Growth Potential - The success of DeepSeek and the film "Nezha" demonstrates the strong vitality of private enterprises, achieving low-cost and high-output results[3] - These examples reveal the potential for private economy growth in digitalization, intelligence, greening, and internationalization trends[3] Group 3: Policy Support for Private Enterprises - Government support is crucial for the success of private enterprises, providing favorable conditions for innovation and development[4] - Xi Jinping's commitment to support private enterprises during difficulties aims to enhance their vitality through effective policy measures[5] Group 4: Strategies for Development - Continuous optimization of the business environment is necessary to ensure fair competition and improve financing conditions for private enterprises[5] - Emphasis on targeted policies for different types and stages of private enterprises to better meet their needs and promote growth[5] Group 5: Innovation as a Key Driver - Increased R&D investment and participation in national technology projects are essential for private enterprises to maintain stability and advance[6] - Private enterprises should focus on transforming technological achievements into practical applications to enhance quality and efficiency[6]

大公国际：六部门发文规范供应链金融业务 征求意见，助力供应链类证券化产品高质量 发展 结构融资部 曾凤智 2025 年 2 月 6 日，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、最高人民法院、国家发 展改革委、商务部及市场监管总局等六部门就《关于规范供应链金融业务 引导 供应链信息服务机构更好服务中小企业融资有关事宜的通知（征求意见稿）》（以 下简称"《通知》"）公开征求意见。《通知》共 21 条内容，旨在提升金融服务 实体经济质效，优化中小企业融资环境，强化供应链金融规范，防控相关业务风 险。供应链类资产证券化产品是供应链金融的重要工具，底层资产高度依赖供应 链数据的真实性和透明度，核心企业信用状况与供应链类资产证券化产品信用质 量息息相关，《通知》的发布为供应链类资产证券化产品发行、信息披露和风险 管理提供政策支持，助力供应链类资产证券化产品高质量发展。本文结合《通知》 要求及供应链类资产证券化产品特点重点分析《通知》对供应链类资产证券化产 品影响。 一、《通知》起草背景 近年来，随着供应链金融加快发展，供应链信息服务机构通过搭建供应链信 息服务系统，为各类供应链金融活动提供信息服务和技术支撑。其中，部分供应 链核心企 ...

行业研究 行业研究|水泥行业 水泥行业 2025 年水泥行业展望：需求维持偏弱，供给预期优化 文/白迪 陈杰 摘要 2024 年，由于房地产市场持续处于深度调整阶段，叠加基础设施投资增速持续放缓， 水泥行业需求难以得到有效提振，国内水泥价格全年呈现"低位徘徊、震荡回升"的走 势，前三季度行业盈利情况同比明显下滑，但盈利情况较上半年有所修复。展望2025年， 在水泥行业积极开展行业自律和错峰生产的预期下，水泥价格水平或受供给优化将在一 定范围内有所修复，盈利状况或较 2024 年有所好转，但由于需求预计仍将维持偏弱态 势，水泥价格反弹动力有限，结合成本端或难有明显改善，行业盈利状况保持谨慎预期。 正文 一、行业政策 2023 年以来，一系列政策出台促进水泥行业供给侧结构性改革；其中，节能降碳和 产能置换成为影响水泥行业发展的两个重要因素。 2023 年以来，一系列政策出台推进水泥行业供给侧结构性改革，促进行业转型升级。 其中，节能降碳和产能置换成为影响水泥行业发展的两个重要因素。 节能降碳方面，在"双碳目标"的引领下，节能降碳成为水泥行业发展的"关键词"。 2023 年 6 月，发改委等五部门发布《工业重点领域 ...

行业研究 行业研究|零售行业 零售行业 文/周春云 摘要 2024 年，在消费品以旧换新政策带动下，消费市场总体保持平稳增长，服务零售对 消费增长形成重要支撑，网络零售占比持续提升；居民收入和消费均保持增长，但增速 有所下滑，全年 CPI 走势偏弱，我国物价仍处于低位。2024 年，国家层面陆续出台一系 列相关政策支持"两新"行动，消费品以旧换新工作取得积极成效；2025 年 1 月出台 《关于 2025 年加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，增加了家 电产品以旧换新补贴范围，并对购买手机、平板、智能手表手环 3 类数码产品实施购新 补贴，预计 2025 年，政策主基调仍将是消费品以旧换新。在电商等线上平台冲击以及 百货"闭店潮"下，零售企业面临较大盈利压力，2024 年前三季度，零售行业企业盈利 整体下行；未来随着《零售业创新提升工程实施方案》的逐步落地实施，零售业发展困 境或将有所好转，盈利能力或将有所提升。截至 2024 年末，零售行业存续主体整体级 别较高，存续债券期限结构较为分散，零售企业整体债务压力不大。 正文 一、行业概况 2024 年，在消费品以旧换新政策带动下，消费市场总 ...