政策解读 大公国际：宽货币、定制度、防风险、促改革 —— 两会《政府工作报告》金融政策解读 金融部 张晗菡 | 010-67413331 | zhanghanhan@dagongcredit.com 2025 年 3 月 6 日 摘要：2025 年 3 月 5 日，第十四届全国人民代表大会第三次会议在北京召 开，国务院总理李强作《政府工作报告》（以下简称"报告"）。报告对 2025 年发 展提出更加积极、务实的预期目标及部署安排。其中，金融作为实体经济的"血 脉"，在本次报告中多次被提及。我们认为，报告中提及的适度宽松的货币政策、 金融支持实体经济制度的完善、房地产和地方政府债务风险的防范化解以及深化 金融市场改革等方面对金融机构经营环境改善和稳定发展具有积极正面影响。 一、货币政策基调：延续宽松，助力稳增长 本次报告强调"适度宽松的货币政策"、"适时降准降息"，延续了去年 12 月 中央经济工作会议的货币政策主基调，相较去年两会报告"稳健的货币政策"在 表述上更加积极。报告还指出要"优化和创新结构性货币政策工具，更大力度促 进楼市股市健康发展"，其中稳住楼市股市为今年 2 月中共中央政治局会议政策 的延续， ...

| 2024年 · 圭要指标完成情况 | | | --- | --- | | ★ 经济发展 | | | ● 国内生产总值 | 达到134.9万亿元，增长5% | | ● 城镇新增就业 | 1256万人 | | ७ 城镇调查失业率 | 5.1% | | O 居民消费价格 | 上涨0.2% | | 0 粮食产量 | 首次跃上1. 4万亿斤 | | 0 常住人口城镇化率 | 提高到0 /% | | ★ 民生福祉 | | | ● 居民人均可支配收入 | 增长5.1% | | 0 困难学生生活补助 | 惠及3400多万人次 | | 0 困难群众一次性生活补助 | 惠及1100多万人 | | * 创新驱动发展 | | | 0 高技术制造业增加值 | 增长8.9% | | ७ 新能源汽车产量 | 突破1300万辆 | | © 技术合同成交额 | 增长11.2% | | ● 制造业投资 | 增长9.2% | | ● 数字经济核心产业增加值占GDP比重 | 达到10%左右 | | ★ 宏观调控 | | | © 地方专项债务限额 | 一次性增加6万亿元 | | © 居民存量房贷利息年支出 | 减少约1500亿元 | | * "两 ...

Investment Growth and Trends - Infrastructure investment in 2024 showed a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, with power, heat, gas, and water supply sectors leading at 23.9% growth[2] - Manufacturing investment also grew by 9.2% in 2024, outpacing overall fixed asset investment by 6 percentage points, highlighting its role as a key economic driver[3] - Real estate investment faced challenges, declining by 10.6% in 2024, with new housing sales down 12.9% and sales revenue down 17.1%[4] Challenges and Opportunities - Investment quality development is entering a new phase, facing challenges in addressing imbalances and enhancing core strengths[5] - China's per capita infrastructure capital stock is only 20% to 30% of that in developed countries, indicating significant investment needs in shortfall areas[4] - Despite traditional growth engines like real estate being under pressure, there is potential for resource optimization towards infrastructure and manufacturing[4] Future Outlook - Infrastructure investment is expected to remain robust, supported by special bonds and urban renewal policies, which will drive growth in 2025[6] - Manufacturing investment is poised for strategic opportunities, with significant investments in technology and digital infrastructure, such as Alibaba's plan to invest 380 billion RMB over three years[7] - Real estate investment is anticipated to recover with policy support, as financing mechanisms have already facilitated the construction of 14 million housing units[8]

专题研究 1 专题研究 大公国际：从《哪吒 2》百亿票房看地方国企文旅产业 投资实践 技术研究部（研究院） 李喆、舒蕴泽、董梦琳 2025 年 2 月 28 日 摘要 电影《哪吒之魔童闹海》（以下简称"《哪吒 2》"）以其超一百四十亿的 票房成绩成为文化现象级事件，引发广泛关注。这部电影的成功离不开地方国企 在基础设施建设、文化资源整合及产业平台搭建方面的有力支持。与之类似，在 政策推动、资源优势以及文旅消费市场增长因素的驱动下，地方国企通过整合资 源、收购参股等方式积极布局文旅产业，并在提升产业竞争力、优化布局方面发 挥重要作用。在实践中，地方国企可通过整合资源盘活资产、科技赋能与创新融 合、产业协同与融合发展等方式，系统性提升文旅产业竞争力与可持续收益。 正文 一、《哪吒 2》电影成功背后的地方国企支持 《哪吒 2》的成功并非偶然，其精良的制作、引人入胜的剧情以及对中国传 统文化的创新诠释，体现了中国电影工业的进步和文化自信的提升。与此同时， 城镇化建设的推进与城乡基础设施的不断完善，更为《哪吒 2》票房在短时间内 突破百亿提供了坚实的基本保障，而这一过程与地方国企过去几年在基础设施建 设和文旅相关产业投 ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of developing new agricultural productivity through technological innovation, indicating a positive outlook for investment in the agricultural sector [1][2]. Core Insights - The central government's policy, as outlined in the February 2025 document, aims to enhance agricultural productivity and ensure food security through technological advancements and localized development strategies [2][3]. - The concept of new agricultural productivity breaks traditional limitations, focusing on the application of new technologies to foster new industries and business models in rural areas [3][4]. - The report highlights China's leading position in global agricultural production indices, with significant growth in grain production and mechanization rates, indicating a robust agricultural modernization process [4][5]. Summary by Sections Agricultural New Productivity Introduction - New agricultural productivity emphasizes the integration of advanced technologies to transform traditional agricultural practices into modern ones, facilitating high-quality agricultural development [3][4]. Significance of Developing New Agricultural Productivity - The report notes that China's agricultural production value indices are above global averages, showcasing the country's strong agricultural capabilities [4][5]. - The core drivers of new agricultural productivity include technological innovation, which is essential for improving production efficiency and ensuring food security [5][6]. Analysis of Agricultural Enterprises' Bond Issuance - As of February 26, 2025, there are 115 outstanding bonds in the agriculture sector, with a total value of 1,046.13 billion yuan, indicating a growing trend in agricultural financing [7][10]. - The report anticipates increased funding needs for agricultural enterprises due to enhanced policy support and ongoing modernization efforts in the sector [7][10]. - The issuance of bonds is primarily focused on short to medium-term maturities, aligning with the investment cycles of agricultural enterprises [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry but highlights the positive impact of local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the cultural tourism sector, particularly in relation to the success of the film "Ne Zha 2" [1][4]. Core Insights - The success of "Ne Zha 2" is attributed to the robust support from local SOEs in infrastructure development, cultural resource integration, and industry platform establishment, which are crucial for enhancing the competitiveness of the cultural tourism industry [1][4]. - Local SOEs are actively investing in the cultural tourism sector, driven by policy support, resource advantages, and the growing consumer market, thereby playing a significant role in optimizing industry layout and enhancing competitiveness [4][5]. - The cultural tourism industry is experiencing a shift towards diversified, personalized, and high-quality development, creating ample market opportunities for local SOEs [6][12]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Support from Local SOEs for "Ne Zha 2" - The film's success is linked to the contributions of local SOEs in urban infrastructure and cultural industry investments, with over 14,000 operational cinemas and more than 86,000 screens in China as of 2023, surpassing the U.S. [2][3]. Section 2: Policy, Resources, and Market Demand - National policies emphasize enhancing cultural tourism product supply and diversifying consumption scenarios, supported by local government initiatives such as project subsidies and easing foreign investment restrictions [4][5]. - The cultural tourism sector is projected to generate revenues of 14,151 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, and domestic travel expected to reach 5.75 trillion yuan, reflecting a 17.1% increase [6][12]. Section 3: Current Status and Case Studies of Local SOEs in Cultural Tourism - Local SOEs are integrating regional cultural tourism resources and managing them effectively, with examples including the establishment of the Xuzhou Cultural Tourism Group and the acquisition of Tianmu Lake assets by Liyang City Investment Group [9][10][11]. - The restructuring of Xuzhou Cultural Tourism Group has led to diversified business operations, with revenues reaching 650 million yuan in 2023, a significant increase from 18 million yuan in 2018 [10][12]. Section 4: Recommendations for Local SOEs in Cultural Tourism Investment - Local SOEs should deepen resource integration and asset revitalization, utilizing financial tools like REITs to enhance asset liquidity and market value [13][14]. - Emphasizing technological empowerment and innovation, local SOEs can reshape the cultural tourism value chain by implementing smart services and data asset management [14][15]. - Strengthening industry collaboration across cultural and tourism sectors can enhance the overall ecosystem, as demonstrated by successful partnerships like the one between Chengdu Cultural Tourism Group and Tencent [15].

技术研究部（研究院） 涂文婕 孙榕 2025 年 3 月 3 日 摘要：近年来，我国投资领域在高质量发展道路上取得显著成效。随着稳投 资政策的持续发力，超长期特别国债、专项债发行以及政策性开发性金融工具等 政策组合拳效应逐步显现，为投资平稳增长提供了有力支撑。随着高质量发展步 入新阶段，我国投资也面临着补短板、强弱项、增后劲等多重挑战。得益于我国 经济长期向好的基本面持续巩固，超大规模市场优势不断显现，科技创新能力显 著提升，投资领域正迎来新的机遇期，为投资增长开辟了广阔空间。展望未来， 基建投资作为稳增长的重要支柱，将保持高景气度；制造业投资作为优化升级的 重要手段，将迎来战略机遇期；房地产投资作为经济的重要支柱产业，将呈现积 极的发展态势。投资作为拉动经济增长的重要引擎，在政策引导和市场机制的双 重作用下，将朝着更加高效、更具活力的方向迈进。 一、 投资高质量发展取得积极进展，为经济增长注入新动能 宏观研究 大公国际：迈向高质量投资——释放增长潜力，构建新 发展格局 时，在设备更新改造和标准升级的持续推动下，传统制造业投资同样保持较高增 速，展现出新旧动能转换的良好态势。 相较之下，房地产投资持续承压，2 ...

政策研究 政策研究|钢铁行业 钢铁行业 大公国际：民营钢铁企业的"春风"—2025 年民营 企业座谈会指引下的新机遇 文/房思旗 摘要 民营企业座谈会于近日在北京隆重召开，本次会议旨在纾解民营企业的发展难题， 指明未来的发展方向。钢铁作为重资产行业，转型升级的迫切要求给民营钢铁企业的资 金、技术等都带来了较大的压力，2025 年恰逢钢铁行业发展的关键节点，本次会议在年 初为民营钢铁企业带来了"春风"，为未来转型升级之路进一步指明了方向。 正文 2025 年 2 月 17 日，习近平总书记主持召开民营企业座谈会（以下简称"会议"）， 此次会议是继 2018 年 11 月时隔近 7 年后，再度召开的座谈会。会议中强调"民营经济 发展前景广阔，大有可为，民营企业和民营企业家大显身手正当其时"，此次会议中，也 不乏钢铁民营企业家的身影，钢铁行业作为高耗能、高污染行业，"十四五"规划收官之 年，其转型升级的问题备受关注。 一、转型升级的迫切 "十四五"规划收官之年，钢铁行业转型升级迫切，大部分民营钢铁企业或面临更 大挑战。 钢铁行业近年来面临较大的转型升级政策要求上的压力。首先，我国提出的"双碳" 目标这一大的发展基调 ...

信用风险展望 收费公路行业 大公国际：收费公路行业 2025 年信用风险展望—— 经营稳健行更远，智能路网享畅通 公用一部 |费颖 羊汝鸣 朱超 2025 年 2 月 26 日 摘要 2024 年，随着外部环境的改善、经济企稳向好和公众出行意愿的增强，全国公路客运量及 货运量同比均有所增长，主要省级收费公路发债企业经营状态良好，受到前一年高基数影响， 大部分省级发债企业 2024 年上半年通行费收入同比有所下降。2024 年以来，我国收费公路行 业新发行债券规模较大、整体期限较短，发债主体整体信用级别较高。预计 2025 年，收费公 路发债企业将继续维持良好的偿债能力，信用风险较小，需关注各地公路差异化收费政策导向、 交通物流降本提质增效以及公路数字化转型、智慧公路建设等。综合来看，收费公路行业 2025 年的信用展望为稳定。 行业发展：2024 年，随着外部环境的改善、经济企稳向好和公众出行意愿的增强，全国公 路客运量及货运量同比均有所增长；预计 2025 年，全国公路运输将继续维持稳健发展趋势。 行业格局：收费公路行业投资规模大、准入门槛高且回收周期长；在全国机动车保有量稳 步增长的情况下，收费公路客运量 ...

信用风险展望 收费公路行业 大公国际：收费公路行业 2025 年信用风险展望—— 经营稳健行更远，智能路网享畅通 公用一部 |费颖 羊汝鸣 朱超 2025 年 2 月 26 日 摘要 2024 年，随着外部环境的改善、经济企稳向好和公众出行意愿的增强，全国公路客运量及 货运量同比均有所增长，主要省级收费公路发债企业经营状态良好，受到前一年高基数影响， 大部分省级发债企业 2024 年上半年通行费收入同比有所下降。2024 年以来，我国收费公路行 业新发行债券规模较大、整体期限较短，发债主体整体信用级别较高。预计 2025 年，收费公 路发债企业将继续维持良好的偿债能力，信用风险较小，需关注各地公路差异化收费政策导向、 交通物流降本提质增效以及公路数字化转型、智慧公路建设等。综合来看，收费公路行业 2025 年的信用展望为稳定。 行业发展：2024 年，随着外部环境的改善、经济企稳向好和公众出行意愿的增强，全国公 路客运量及货运量同比均有所增长；预计 2025 年，全国公路运输将继续维持稳健发展趋势。 行业格局：收费公路行业投资规模大、准入门槛高且回收周期长；在全国机动车保有量稳 步增长的情况下，收费公路客运量 ...