宏观研究 大公国际： 稳中求进、锐意进取—2025 年政府工作报 告解读 技术研究部（研究院） 涂文婕 2025 年 3 月 12 日 摘要：2025 年政府工作报告展现了政府稳中求进、锐意进取的决心，以扩大 内需、科技创新、重大改革的"进"，促进经济大局的"稳"，坚定不移推动经 济高质量发展。过去一年在面对外部压力加大、内部困难增多的严峻形势下，全 年经济社会发展主要目标任务顺利完成。今年政府工作报告在肯定成绩来之不易 的同时，也指出了当前面临的困难和挑战。2025 年是中国经济转型升级的关键 时期，政府工作报告为全年的经济发展指明了方向、明确了重点任务，并提供了 强有力的政策支持，为实现经济社会高质量发展奠定了坚实基础。 一、GDP 增速：有信心实现 5%左右的经济增长目标，突出迎难而上、奋发有 为的鲜明导向 2025 年是中国经济转型升级的关键时期，将国内生产总值增长目标定为 5% 左右，"兼顾了需要与可能"，是基于中国经济当前发展阶段、能力条件及政策 支持的综合考量，彰显了对中国经济内在韧性的坚定信心。当然也面临着一些"难 关"。 从增长起点来看，今年的目标是在 2024 年已经取得一定成绩的基础上设 ...

政策研究 政策研究|半导体行业 半导体行业 2025 年民营企业座谈会：半导体与科技政策风向解 读——基于信用风险视角的分析 文/程春晓 摘要 一、高规格座谈会释放政策信号，半导体等科技行业站上"C 位" 民营企业座谈会具有深远的意义，其内容和方向反映了国家对民营企业发展的政策 导向变化。2018 年的座谈会侧重促进民营经济全面发展，关注民营企业在经济结构调整 中的作用，以及缓解企业面临的政策压力。到 2025 年，座谈会的重点已经转向如何通 过科技创新和产业升级推动民营企业的高质量发展，尤其是在半导体等科技前沿领域的 突破。这一转变展示了民营企业在科技创新上的进步，并体现了政府推动"科技自立自 强"的战略决心。 这种变化在参会企业的类型结构中得到了充分体现，揭示了政策优先级的调整。 2018 年，参会企业多为传统制造业和消费品行业，代表企业如福耀玻璃（传统制造）、 万向集团（汽车零部件）和新希望（农业）。而到 2025 年，除了比亚迪、华为等科技龙 头企业外，还吸纳了多个在半导体、新能源汽车、机器人、AI 等领域具有领先优势的企 业，这些企业占据了核心位置，表明政府已经将科技创新和产业升级视为发展的重中之 ...

政策解读 两会房地产政策解读 ——持续防风险，推动稳预期 房地产行业政策分析 文/马天姿 摘要 3 月 5 日，国务院总理李强在政府工作报告中系统部署房地产行业政策，以"防风 险、稳预期、促转型"为主线，强调"持续推动房地产市场止跌回稳"和"更大力度促 进楼市股市健康发展"，并在此基础上提出多项针对性举措，其中需求端强调"因城施 策调减限制性措施"，加码城中村改造等来刺激需求释放，同时以"好房子"建设标准 激发高品质居住需求。供给端聚焦"控增量、优存量"，并深化房地产融资协调机制， 推动保交楼与债务风险化解。政府工作报告为当前房地产行业确立了基调，指明了未来 的发展方向。 正文 2025 年 3 月 5 日，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告，将房地产工作纳入"有效防范 化解重点领域风险，牢牢守住不发生系统性风险底线"的框架之下，首次将"稳住楼市 股市"写入政府工作报告总体要求，并再次强调了"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"， 同时提到"更大力度促进楼市股市健康发展"。国内生产总值增长 5%左右是今年发展主 要预期目标之一，房地产行业作为扩大内需、稳定投资的关键领域，在国家发展中发挥 支柱作用，此次政府工作报告中的 ...

专题研究 专题研究|两会解读 两会解读 大公国际：两会解读："人工智能+"驱动变革，开启 经济增长新篇章 文/工商部 刘佳聪 摘要 人工智能作为引领未来的基础性和战略性技术，是 2025 年"两会"的关键词之一。 近年来，我国人工智能领域发展突飞猛进，在政策的持续加码下，技术创新取得重要突 破、产业融合应用加速落地、生态安全建设逐步建立。今年的政府工作报告提出，中国 将着眼于保持中高速增长和迈向中高端水平"双目标"，在此背景下，发展"人工智能+" 对重塑行业格局、推动社会进步等具有重要意义，有望打开新的经济增长空间。 正文 2025 年 3 月 5 日，国务院总理李强在做政府工作报告时提出，要持续推进"人工智 能+"行动。随着新一轮科技革命和产业革命的快速推进，"人工智能+"是未来经济发展 的必然趋势。 产业融合应用加速落地。人工智能与传统行业、新兴领域融合，进一步打开了行业 想象力和可能性。在智慧工厂方面，实现智能矿山、车间，开展预测性维护等；在智慧 医疗方面，快速分析医学影像，加速新药研发等；在智慧物流方面，更加高效、精确的 完成复杂动作；此外，在农业、金融、教育、交通、文旅等方面均有涉及。不仅打破了 现 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as a key component of strengthening the domestic circulation system, which is crucial for achieving high-quality economic development [1][2] - It highlights the need for a synergistic approach between policy measures and deepening reform and opening up to promote economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Interaction between Consumption and Domestic Circulation - The domestic circulation system is positioned as the main driver of economic growth, with consumption being the foundational guarantee for expanding domestic demand [3][5] - Consumption is less volatile compared to investment and net exports, providing stability and support for economic development [3] - Enhancing consumer capacity and enthusiasm can facilitate the transition of economic growth drivers and ensure stable economic operations [3][5] Group 2: Current Characteristics of Consumption - In 2024, the contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 44.5%, surpassing the contributions from investment (25.2%) and net exports (30.3%), indicating consumption's vital role in stabilizing economic growth [7] - There is a noticeable shift in consumption patterns from material goods to services, with per capita consumption expenditure reaching 28,227 yuan, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [8] - The rise of green consumption reflects a shift towards quality-oriented consumption, with significant increases in the ownership of new energy vehicles and the growth of the second-hand e-commerce market [8] Group 3: Favorable Conditions for Boosting Consumption - The report outlines the need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to support consumption, with a focus on implementing proactive fiscal measures and moderately easing monetary policies [9][10] - Specific policies, such as the expansion of the old-for-new replacement program, are expected to significantly boost sales in various sectors, including automobiles and home appliances [9][10] - The integration of industrial and regional policies aims to promote balanced development across different regions, enhancing overall economic quality [11] Group 4: Deepening Reform and Optimizing the Business Environment - Continuous supply-side structural reforms are essential for optimizing supply structures and enhancing innovation capabilities, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing sectors [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of improving the business environment by addressing issues like "involution" and local protectionism, which can hinder market dynamics [13]

Group 1: Current Status of "Artificial Intelligence +" - The core AI industry in China has approached a scale of 600 billion yuan, with over 4,500 companies operating in the sector[5] - The user base for generative AI products has reached 230 million people[5] - The "Three New" economy's value added accounted for over 18% of GDP in 2024[5] Group 2: Policy and Technological Innovations - The government has increased policy support, with guidelines issued for AI industry standards and local action plans established in various cities[3] - Significant breakthroughs in AI technology have been achieved, particularly in natural language processing and computer vision, with domestic AI papers cited globally[4] - The rise of domestic AI assistants and products has showcased China's advanced technology at competitive costs[4] Group 3: Significance and Recommendations for Development - Developing "Artificial Intelligence +" is crucial for reshaping industry structures and enhancing economic quality and efficiency[6] - Recommendations include strengthening top-level design, increasing R&D investment, and promoting industry integration and scenario development[7][8] - The need for a robust policy environment is emphasized to ensure safe and fair use of AI technologies[8]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as a key focus for economic growth in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the interaction between boosting consumption and the domestic circulation economy, suggesting that enhancing consumer spending is essential for stabilizing and driving economic growth [3][4]. - It notes that consumer spending contributed 44.5% to GDP growth in 2024, surpassing the contributions from investment and net exports, thus underscoring the critical role of consumption in economic stability [7]. - The report identifies significant trends in consumption, including a shift from material to service-oriented spending and an increasing preference for quality and environmentally friendly products [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Interaction between Consumption and Domestic Circulation - The report discusses the necessity of a robust domestic circulation economy, where boosting consumption serves as a foundational element for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing economic growth [3][4]. 2. Current Characteristics of Consumption - In 2024, China's GDP reached 134.91 trillion yuan, with a 5% year-on-year growth, and retail sales of consumer goods totaled 48.34 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.5% increase [7]. - The report notes a clear trend towards service-oriented consumption, with per capita spending reaching 28,227 yuan, a 5.3% increase, and a notable rise in domestic travel and service consumption [8]. 3. Favorable Conditions for Boosting Consumption - The report emphasizes the need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to support consumption, including a projected 3 trillion yuan in special bonds for consumer goods replacement programs in 2025 [9][10]. - It highlights the importance of integrating industrial and regional policies to foster balanced economic development across different regions, thereby enhancing overall market vitality [11]. 4. Deepening Reforms and Optimizing the Business Environment - The report outlines ongoing supply-side structural reforms aimed at optimizing production capacity and enhancing innovation, with a focus on high-tech manufacturing growth [12]. - It stresses the need for a better business environment to stimulate market activity, including measures to prevent unhealthy competition and promote fair market practices [13].

政策解读 政策解读|发展新质生产力 发展新质生产力 大公国际：发展新质生产力—— 新兴产业、传统升级与数字经济的协同共振 文/管文星 3 月 5 日，2025 年政府工作报告提出 2025 年政府工作任务，在新质生产力方面， 强调"因地制宜发展新质生产力，加快建设现代化产业体系"，具体来看，"培育壮大新 兴产业、未来产业"开拓增长空间，"推动传统产业改造提升"夯实转型根基，"激发数 字经济创新活力"赋能技术融合。三方面协同共振，助力新质生产力的发展。 一、"培育壮大新兴产业、未来产业"——新兴产业开辟增长新边疆 新兴产业是突破增长天花板的核心引擎，根据工业和信息化部等部门于 2023 年 8 月发布的《新产业标准化领航工程实施方案（2023─2035 年）》（以下简称"实施方案"）， 新兴产业涵盖新一代信息技术、新能源等八大领域；未来产业是新质生产力活跃的先导 力量，根据实施方案，未来产业包括元宇宙、脑机接口、量子信息等九大方向。新兴产 业和未来产业具有创新活跃、技术密集、发展前景广阔等特征，对于推动新产业高质量 发展、加快建设现代化产业体系具有深远意义。 二、"推动传统产业改造提升"——传统产业激活存量新动 ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of developing new quality productivity through the collaboration of emerging industries, traditional upgrades, and digital economy innovation, indicating a positive outlook for investment in these sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the government's focus on "cultivating and expanding emerging industries and future industries" as a core engine for growth, with a shift from "actively cultivating" to "cultivating and expanding," indicating a move towards large-scale development and ecosystem construction [3][4]. - Traditional industries, which account for approximately 80% of the total manufacturing value added, are seen as crucial for economic development and require transformation to enhance their competitiveness and vitality [5][6]. - The digital economy is identified as a key infrastructure for industrial upgrading and transformation, with an emphasis on stimulating innovation within this sector to enhance resource allocation efficiency [7][8]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Emerging and Future Industries - Emerging industries are defined as the core engine for breaking through growth ceilings, covering eight major fields including new generation information technology and new energy [3]. - Future industries, which include areas like the metaverse and quantum information, are recognized as leading forces for new quality productivity [3][4]. Section 2: Traditional Industry Upgrades - The transformation of traditional manufacturing is essential for addressing issues of being "large but not strong" and "comprehensive but not refined," which is vital for building a modern economic system [5][6]. - The report notes significant advancements in sectors like new energy vehicles and electronic information manufacturing, with a focus on enhancing international competitiveness [6]. Section 3: Digital Economy Innovation - The digital economy is positioned as a critical foundation for industrial transformation, with ongoing developments in digital infrastructure such as 5G and cloud computing [7][8]. - Future efforts are expected to deepen the integration of digital economy with emerging and traditional industries, facilitating a new cycle of resource allocation [8].

宏观研究 奶牛养殖行业分析及展望 奶牛养殖行业分析 中央一号文件首次提出"推进奶牛产业纾困"，生鲜 乳供求关系加快调整 文/刘博雅 摘要 近年来，生鲜乳产能及产量过剩叠加市场竞争加剧导致奶牛养殖市场出现供需失衡， 生鲜乳平均价格持续下降，奶牛养殖企业经营承压，2023 年以来，奶牛养殖企业整体盈 利情况欠佳。2025 年 2 月，中央一号文件发布，首次提出"推进奶牛产业纾困"，表明 了中央推动奶牛养殖业复苏的决心，同时为改善市场环境及养殖模式提出具体措施。本 文分析了我国奶牛养殖市场供需现状，选取较为有代表性的奶牛养殖企业，整理了其盈 利相关财务数据，并围绕中央一号文件对奶牛养殖业的影响进行了探讨。 正文 （一）奶牛养殖市场供需现状 近年来，生鲜乳产能及产量过剩叠加市场竞争加剧导致奶牛养殖市场出现供需失衡， 生鲜乳平均价格持续下降，奶牛养殖企业经营承压。 奶牛养殖业作为乳业的上游产业，是我国农业经济重要组成部分，与国民健康高度 相关。近年来，随着市场环境的变化和行业竞争的加剧，中国奶牛养殖业面临一定挑战， 具体来看，2022 年以来，生鲜乳平均价格呈持续下降趋势，根据 wind 统计数据显示， 截至 2025 ...