Macro Policy Insights - The central government has introduced a series of policies aimed at addressing key economic constraints, with significant announcements made on September 24, 25, and 26, 2024[1] - The focus of the recent Central Political Bureau meeting was to enhance fiscal and monetary policy support for the real economy, emphasizing the need for counter-cyclical adjustments[2] Real Estate Market Focus - The meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, which is crucial for driving corporate investment and consumer spending[3] - Policies will be implemented to control new construction, optimize existing projects, and increase the quality of housing developments, with expectations of substantial policy rollouts in Q4[3] Capital Market Support - Measures to invigorate the capital market include encouraging long-term funds to enter the market and facilitating the merger and acquisition activities of listed companies[4] - The recent monetary policies are expected to improve the current sluggish stock market, enhancing the capital market's role in supporting the real economy[4] Support for Enterprises and Livelihoods - The meeting emphasized the need to assist enterprises in overcoming challenges, particularly through regulatory improvements and the introduction of a private economy promotion law[5] - Focus areas for livelihood support include employment for key demographics such as recent graduates and low-income groups, ensuring the supply and price stability of essential goods[5] Future Outlook - The financing costs for the real economy are expected to decrease, with fiscal policies set to complement monetary policies in the upcoming quarters[6] - The combination of supportive measures for the real estate and capital markets is anticipated to reverse the current downturns in these sectors[6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment level in the construction industry for 2024 is expected to remain largely stable compared to the previous year [3]. Core Insights - Infrastructure investment is guided by the "Three Major Projects," with expanded policy support and a focus on technology innovation and new infrastructure [2][4]. - Real estate investment policies have been relaxed on both supply and demand sides, with significant declines in real estate investment and sales observed in the first eight months of 2024 [5][6]. - The construction industry is expected to see a recovery in demand and investment conditions in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to favorable policies [7][8]. Industry Policy - In 2024, infrastructure investment is prioritized with a focus on "Three Major Projects," and policies are expected to remain supportive [2][4]. - The government plans to issue special bonds and increase fiscal deficits to support infrastructure projects, with a total of 3.9 trillion yuan in local government special bonds planned for the year [2]. - Real estate financing mechanisms have been established to support qualified projects, and various measures have been introduced to stabilize the real estate market [4][5]. Industry Demand - From January to August 2024, infrastructure investment growth slowed, while real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.2% year-on-year [5][6]. - The construction industry is expected to experience improved demand and investment conditions in the fourth quarter, driven by policy stimuli [7][8]. - The total value of construction contracts signed in the first half of 2024 was 149,125 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [7]. Key Indicators - The total output value of the construction industry in the first half of 2024 was 138,312 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, although the growth rate has slowed [7]. - The construction business activity index has shown a downward trend due to the impact of the real estate market, with a reading of 50.6 in August 2024 [8]. - The issuance rates and spreads of bonds by construction companies are negatively correlated with the credit ratings of the issuers [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment level in the construction industry for 2024 is expected to remain roughly flat compared to the previous year [3]. Core Insights - Infrastructure investment is guided by the "Three Major Projects," with expanded policy support and a focus on technology innovation and new infrastructure [2][4]. - Real estate investment policies have been relaxed on both supply and demand sides, with significant declines in real estate investment and sales observed in the first eight months of 2024 [5][6]. - The construction industry is expected to see a recovery in downstream demand and an improvement in investment conditions in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to favorable policies [7][8]. Industry Policy - In 2024, infrastructure investment is prioritized with a focus on "Three Major Projects," and policies are expected to remain supportive [2][4]. - The central government has outlined funding sources and project planning for infrastructure investment, with a fiscal deficit rate set at 3% and an increase in local government special bonds [2]. - Real estate policies have been actively released, including measures to support financing for qualified projects and adjustments to mortgage rates and down payment ratios [4][6]. Industry Demand - From January to August 2024, infrastructure investment growth slowed, while real estate investment saw a significant decline, with expectations for a recovery in the fourth quarter [5][6]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.4%, with a decrease in growth rates due to low new project starts and extreme weather [5]. - Real estate development investment reached 69,284 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year, marking the largest decline since 2021 [6][7]. Key Indicators in Construction Industry - In the first half of 2024, the total output value of the construction industry grew by 4.6% year-on-year, although the growth rate slowed [7]. - New contract amounts decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a decline in new business opportunities [7]. - The construction business activity index showed a downward trend, influenced by the real estate market, but is expected to recover with policy support in the fourth quarter [8]. Bond Issuance Analysis - From January to August 2024, the issuance rates and spreads of bonds by construction companies showed a negative correlation with the credit ratings of the issuers [9][10]. - The overall bond issuance rates were relatively low, with variations based on the credit ratings of the issuers [10].

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the cement industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The cement industry is expected to remain weak in Q4 2024 due to sluggish demand and insufficient price rebound momentum [1] - Industry profitability is at a low point, awaiting supply-side improvements [1] - Cement prices are expected to recover within a certain range due to industry self-discipline and staggered production, but the rebound will be limited by weak demand [13] Industry Policy - Policies in 2023 and 2024 focus on energy conservation, carbon reduction, and capacity replacement to promote industry transformation [2] - The "Dual Carbon Goals" have made energy conservation and carbon reduction key themes for the cement industry [2] - By 2025, the cement clinker capacity is targeted to be controlled at around 1.8 billion tons, with 30% of capacity reaching energy efficiency benchmark levels [2] - Stricter capacity replacement policies have been introduced to curb overcapacity and prevent the transfer of outdated production lines [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Cement demand remains weak in 2024 due to the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market and slowing infrastructure investment growth [4] - Fixed asset investment growth has been below 4.50% in 2024, with real estate development investment continuing to decline [6] - Infrastructure investment saw a slight recovery in Q1 2024 but slowed down in Q2, limiting its impact on cement demand [6] - Cement clinker capacity has been declining since 2020, with 1,569 production lines and a capacity of 1.803 billion tons/year by the end of 2023 [7] - Cement production in 2024 (Jan-Jul) was 1.001 billion tons, down 10.50% year-on-year [8] - Cement inventory pressure improved in 2024, with a storage ratio fluctuating around 65% [10] Price Trends - Cement prices in 2024 have shown a trend of "low-level fluctuations and gradual recovery" [13] - The average cement price from Jan-Jul 2024 was 337 yuan/ton, down 2.12% from Dec 2023 [13] - Price recovery is expected in Q4 2024 due to industry self-discipline and staggered production, but the rebound will be limited by weak demand [13] Profitability - The cement industry's profitability is at a low point in H1 2024, with many companies reporting losses [15] - Among 16 sample companies, 14 reported year-on-year declines in revenue, and 14 reported declines in net profit, with 8 companies reporting negative net profits [15] - Industry profitability is expected to remain under pressure in Q4 2024 due to weak demand and limited price recovery [15]

Monetary Policy Adjustments - The central bank will lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity into the financial market, reducing the average reserve requirement ratio to about 6.6%[1] - The policy interest rate will be reduced, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.7% to 1.5%, expected to lead to a decline in MLF rates by about 0.3 percentage points[1] - The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is anticipated to be around 0.5 percentage points, with the minimum down payment ratio for second homes lowered from 25% to 15%[2] Support for Real Estate Market - The central bank will increase the support for guaranteed housing refinancing, raising the funding support ratio from 60% to 100% for a 300 billion yuan refinancing project[2] - The extension of the execution period for operational property loans and the "Financial 16 Measures" policy until the end of 2026 aims to alleviate structural pressures in the real estate market[2] Capital Market Stability Measures - New monetary policy tools will be introduced to support the stability of the stock market, including securities, fund, and insurance company swap facilities to enhance liquidity access[3] - Special refinancing for stock repurchases and increases will guide banks to provide funding support to listed companies and major shareholders, promoting stock buybacks and increases[3] Economic Context and Implications - The global economic growth is slowing, with the Federal Reserve announcing a 50 basis point rate cut, leading to a more stable RMB exchange rate around 7.0 against the USD[2] - Domestic consumption confidence is low, and the capital market remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector, which directly impacts related industries[2] - The recent policies are seen as necessary and timely to address structural pressures and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission[4]

宏观分析 政策解读 大公国际：适应人口结构变化 推进养老金融发展 技术研究部（研究院） 李喆 2024 年 9 月 20 日 2024 年 9 月 13 日，全国人大常委会会议表决通过了关于实施渐进式延迟法 定退休年龄的决定。根据决定，实施渐进式延迟法定退休年龄坚持小步调整、弹 性实施、分类推进、统筹兼顾的原则，从 2025 年 1 月 1 日起，我国将用 15 年时 间，逐步将男职工的法定退休年龄从原 60 周岁延迟到 63 周岁，将女职工的法定 退休年龄从原 50 周岁、55 周岁，分别延迟到 55 周岁、58 周岁。实施渐进式延 迟法定退休年龄的决定是为了适应人口结构调整的新形势，同时推动了养老金融 的发展。 一、人口结构变化现状分析 本次退休年龄的调整与人口结构变化相关。本决定自 2025 年 1 月 1 日起施 行，同时第五届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第二次会议批准的《国务院关于安 置老弱病残干部的暂行办法》和《国务院关于工人退休、退职的暂行办法》中有 关退休年龄的规定不再施行。截至目前，我国经济社会和人口结构已经发生重大 变化，人口老龄化现象客观存在。数据显示，1953 年到 2023 年的 70 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the electrical equipment manufacturing industry, expecting improved revenue and profitability due to policy effects and market demand [2][4]. Core Insights - The electrical equipment manufacturing industry is expected to benefit from policies focused on energy conservation, carbon reduction, and the promotion of high-quality development of renewable energy [2][4]. - The industry has experienced a slight decline in revenue and profit in the first seven months of 2024, but improvements are anticipated as domestic and foreign demand expands [12]. Industry Policy - Policies in 2024 emphasize energy conservation, carbon reduction, and the development of a new power system, which are expected to enhance the industry's prosperity [3][4]. - Significant investments in power generation and transmission networks, along with the promotion of renewable energy, are driving the demand for electrical equipment [3][4]. - The National Energy Administration's guidelines aim for a substantial increase in non-fossil energy generation capacity, with projections for wind and solar power to account for over 40% of total installed capacity by the end of 2024 [7][9]. Industry Structure - The electrical equipment sector is divided into primary and secondary equipment, with primary equipment directly involved in power transmission and secondary equipment focused on monitoring and control [4]. - The industry faces challenges from rising raw material costs due to supply shortages, which may compress profit margins [4][12]. Profitability - In the first seven months of 2024, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing sector reported revenues of 5.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.80%, and total profits of 307.4 billion yuan, down 8.10% [12]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to pressures in the photovoltaic, wind power, and battery segments, but future improvements are expected due to policy support and market expansion [12].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|----------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | 行业研究 | | | | | 行业研究 |化工行业 化工行业 | 2024 年第四季度化工行业供需较为均衡，盈利处于高位 文/崔爱巧 摘要 预计 2024 年第四季度化工行业政策仍围绕"绿色、环保"展开，2024 年以来，化工产品 价格基本平稳，油价短期稳中有降；化学原料及化学制品行业的供需将继续保持相对稳定；化 学纤维行业内需逐步恢复，供需情况或将有所改善；化肥价格 2023 年整体呈下行态势，但化 肥企业盈利水平仍处于高位；整体化工行业供需格局将继续改善化工行业。2023 年及 2024 年 1～8 月，各期限债券的发行利率和发行利差与发行主体的信用等级基本呈现负相关关系。 正文 一、行业政策 2024 年 1～8 月，化工行业政策涉及绿色发展、美丽中国、节能降碳及可持续发展等方面， 预计 2024 年第四季度化工行业政策仍围绕"绿色、环保"展开。 2024 年 1～8 月，化工行业政策涉及绿色发展 ...

行业研究 房地产行业 大公国际：利好政策持续加码下房地产市场脉冲式 回暖，但仍处于周期筑底阶段 技术研究部（研究院）戚旻婧 赵艺苑 2024 年 8 月 28 日 5 月 17 日以来，中央及地方政府密集出台了一系列楼市优化政策，政策松 绑力度持续加大、因城施策精准性不断增强、金融支持力度稳步提升，通过修复 房地产开发投资信心、加速消化商品房库存、提升核心一、二线城市成交量等途 径，在促进楼市供需调整、加快构建房地产新模式等发面发挥了积极作用，但房 地产市场整体仍处于筑底阶段，对经济复苏的拖累尚未结束。展望未来，预期政 策将继续保持宽松基调，伴随着市场供需矛盾的逐步缓释，供给结构的优化与需 求的合理释放将推动房地产市场持续平稳健康发展。 一、央行四箭齐发稳信心，政策密集发布促回暖 今年以来，中央和地方政府相继进一步加大了房地产调控政策优化力度，陆 续出台了一系列优化措施，以促进房地产市场的平稳健康发展。在优化政策的持 续影响下，房地产市场整体出现一定的积极变化，供需矛盾得到部分释放，市场 信心有所修复，但仍面临政策效果未能完全显现、市场结构性问题依然存在的现 状，亟需进一步的宏观调控与引导。5 月 17 日， ...

Financing Environment - China's economic development is shifting from scale growth to quality improvement, emphasizing high-quality development as a primary task[1] - Recent policies, such as the "75 Document," impose stricter requirements on state-owned enterprises' financing capabilities, affecting their use of ABS products[1] Development of Holding-type Real Estate ABS - The launch of holding-type real estate ABS has been rapid and relatively low-profile compared to public REITs, with significant market interest since 2022[2][3] - The first holding-type real estate ABS project was approved on December 11, 2023, and issued on December 25, 2023, with a scale of 19.60 billion yuan[4][8] Product Features - Holding-type real estate ABS allows for a leverage ratio of approximately 50%, higher than the average for public REITs, enhancing financial flexibility[5] - The product structure is designed to prioritize asset credit over structural enhancements, allowing for a broader range of asset types, including commercial properties[5] Case Studies - As of August 30, 2024, four holding-type real estate ABS projects have been accepted, with two already issued, including a 19.60 billion yuan project and an 11.70 billion yuan project[7][10] - The first project, involving the Qingxi Bridge, generates cash flow from toll revenues, while the second project focuses on affordable rental housing in major cities[8][10] Advantages and Future Directions - Holding-type real estate ABS offers advantages such as optimizing financial structure, flexible access, and efficient management, allowing for a competitive edge in asset revitalization[12] - Future focus areas include asset adaptability, investment thought shifts, and enhancing secondary market trading mechanisms to improve liquidity and stability[13]