（二〇二四年年报） 经济运行稳中有进 增长目标如期实现 主要经济指标情况 | 指标名称 | 2023 | 2024 | 2024 | 2024 | 2024 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | | GDP 当季值(万亿元) | 35.7 | 30.5 | 32.9 | 34.2 | 37.4 | | GDP 当季同比(%) | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.4 | | 工业增加值增速(%) | 4.6 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | | 固定资产投资增速(%) | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.2 | | 房地产投资增速(%) | -9.6 | -9.5 | -10.1 | -10.1 | -10.6 | | 基建投资增速(%) | 5.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | | 制造业投资增速(%) | 6.5 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.2 | | 社零增速(%) | 7.2 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the copper industry, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and structural adjustments to enhance sustainability and profitability [2][3][12]. Core Insights - The copper industry is crucial for national economic development, with China being the largest consumer and producer of refined copper globally. However, the country faces significant challenges due to a lack of domestic copper resources and high dependence on imports [2][5]. - The "Copper Industry High-Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" aims to address these challenges by focusing on resource security, technological innovation, structural adjustments, and green transformation [6][11]. - The report highlights the need for copper mining and smelting enterprises to enhance resource self-sufficiency and technological capabilities, which will improve their bargaining power and sustainability [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Implementation Background - China is the largest refined copper producer, with a production of 13.64 million tons in 2024, accounting for 49% of global output. However, the country has only 4% of the world's proven copper reserves and a 94% dependence on imported copper concentrate [5][6]. - The processing fee for copper concentrates has dropped significantly, leading to increased pressure on domestic smelting enterprises [6][11]. 2. Main Content and Impact Analysis (1) Strengthening Raw Material Security - The plan emphasizes increasing domestic copper resource exploration and utilization, aiming for a 5%-10% increase in domestic copper resources by 2027 [8][9]. - It encourages mining enterprises to invest in exploration and technological innovation, particularly in low-grade and difficult-to-select resources [9]. (2) Promoting Structural Adjustment - The report calls for a shift from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency improvement in copper smelting, with a focus on reducing blind capacity expansion [10][11]. - By controlling new smelting capacity, the plan aims to stabilize processing fees and improve the profitability of smelting enterprises [11]. (3) High-Quality Industry Development - The plan promotes innovation in the copper industry, including the establishment of innovation centers and the development of new materials and technologies [12][13]. - It emphasizes the importance of green and intelligent development, aiming for all copper smelting capacity in key pollution areas to meet A-level environmental performance by 2025 [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the steel industry towards a focus on quality and efficiency, suggesting a positive outlook for leading steel enterprises while posing challenges for smaller firms [1][13]. Core Insights - The release of the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)" aims to transform the industry from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency" amidst challenges such as overcapacity, demand structure adjustments, and increasing environmental pressures [1][13]. - The introduction of a graded evaluation system and stricter environmental and energy efficiency standards is expected to reshape the competitive landscape, favoring larger firms with better resources and technology [8][10][12]. Policy Evolution - The report outlines the evolution of steel industry policies since the first release in 2010, highlighting the increasing emphasis on environmental protection and energy efficiency in response to industry challenges [3][4][5][6][7]. Key Changes in 2025 Edition - **Graded Evaluation**: The new system introduces a two-tier evaluation model for enterprises, distinguishing between "normative enterprises" and "leading normative enterprises," with specific indicators for each category [10]. - **Environmental Upgrades**: By 2026, all enterprises must complete ultra-low emission transformations, with energy efficiency benchmarks set for major production processes by the end of 2025 [11]. - **Mergers and Acquisitions**: The 2025 edition encourages mergers and acquisitions to enhance industry concentration and optimize the industrial layout [12]. Impact on Steel Enterprises - In the short term, compliance with the new standards will require significant capital investment in equipment and technology, potentially increasing operational costs and compressing profit margins [13]. - In the long term, meeting these standards is expected to improve production efficiency, reduce energy consumption, and enhance market competitiveness, ultimately leading to better profitability and sustainability for compliant enterprises [13].

2025 年全球信用风险八大展望 美国为保障自身"一超"世界地位而愈发强调"美国优先"，尤其是 2025 年特 朗普重返白宫将对美国两党之间的力量博弈以及全球政治格局产生较大影响。一方面， 特朗普政府以"降本增效"为名，精简美国国际开发署（USAID）、中情局（CIA）等 政府官僚机构，削减并优化财政支出，计划重组联邦机构等，在改善美国政府效率的 同时趁机削弱民主党的政治势力，进一步激化了两党间矛盾并增大其改革阻力，或将 导致美国的政治极化问题愈发严重。 另一方面，特朗普政府在对外关系上不延续民主党的团结欧盟及西方盟友一致施 压非盟友国家的传统多边联盟策略，而是倾向于以技术壁垒、贸易保护等手段为筹码 发展双边关系。这也意味着特朗普政府未来会更加聚焦于先进技术、美元地位、经济 发展等美国核心利益，大力抑制其他国家的追赶效应，背离多边主义并减少对不必要 国际事务的干预，比如，与欧盟在俄乌问题、加征关税、提高北约军费等方面矛盾重 重，对加拿大和墨西哥等传统贸易盟友加征关税，退出《巴黎协定》以及世界卫生组 织等，这些举措可能会加剧大国之间的摩擦并弱化现有国际规则和体系的运作。 欧洲各国民粹主义和政治碎片化问题愈演愈烈 ...

2025 年证券行业分析 联合资信 金融评级二部 |证券行业组 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、证券行业概况 2024 年，A 股沪深两市总体呈"先抑后扬"的格局，前三季度，股票市场指数 大幅波动，交投活跃程度同比有所下降，但受益于 9 月下旬国家经济利好政策的颁 布，三季度末股票指数快速上涨，单日股票交易成交额显著增长；2024 年四季度， 沪深两市成交额同、环比均大幅增长，交投活跃度显著上升，市场存量债券余额较 上年末有所增长，期末债券市场指数较上年末小幅上涨。 股票市场方面，2024 年，沪深两市股票市场指数先抑后扬，2 月初，上证指数触 及全年最低点 2635.09 点，随后在政策利好和资金面改善的推动下，市场出现了反弹， 9 月 24 日，在各监管部门一揽子政策的提振下，上证指数大幅上涨，一度达到年内 最高点 3674.40 点，单日股票交易成交额显著增长，根据沪深两市交易所公开披露数 据，2024 年四季度，沪深两市 A 股成交额 111.24 万亿元，同比增长 124.95%，环比 增长 157.53%，交投活跃程度大幅上升；从全年数据来看，2024 年沪深两市 A 股成 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the commercial factoring industry Core Insights - The commercial factoring industry in China has developed over ten years, with regulatory improvements leading to higher quality development [4][5] - The role of commercial factoring companies in asset securitization is crucial, as they provide financing and manage receivables, but their declining performance raises concerns about the impact on securities repayment [2][7] Industry Overview - The main business of commercial factoring companies involves the transfer of receivables from suppliers to these companies, which then provide financing and manage accounts [3] - As of 2021, the total business volume of commercial factoring in China was approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 34.7% [5] - The number of commercial factoring companies has been decreasing, indicating a trend towards higher market concentration and quality development [5][6] Role in Asset Securitization Channel Business - In channel business, commercial factoring companies have a relatively weak role, focusing on the quality and legality of underlying assets [8][14] - The final repayment source for channel-type asset securitization products primarily relies on the willingness and credit level of the debtors [14] Non-Channel Business - Non-channel business requires thorough due diligence on the operational, financial, and compliance aspects of commercial factoring companies [15][16] - The quality of underlying assets in non-channel business is closely related to the operational and risk control systems of commercial factoring companies [19][21] Risk Mitigation Measures - For channel business, ensuring the authenticity and legality of asset transfers while avoiding fund collection through the factoring company's accounts is crucial [14] - In non-channel business, establishing separate accounts for receivables and implementing mechanisms to prevent fund misappropriation are essential [17][18]

2025 年以旧换新政策联合解读 20250109 摘要 Q&A 2024 年发改委和财政部发布的手机、平板及智能穿戴产品补贴政策具体内容是 什么？其对市场有何影响？ 2024 年 1 月 8 日，发改委和财政部发布了将手机、平板以及智能穿戴产品纳入 补贴范围的政策。根据该政策，补贴金额按售价的 15%计算，每人购买上限为一 部，单部产品售价上限为 6,000 元人民币。国内手机销量总盘约为 3.5 亿台，其 中售价超过 6,000 元的手机占比约 15%，因此 85%左右的手机都在补贴范围内。 • 2024 年，发改委和财政部推出手机、平板及智能穿戴产品补贴政策，补 贴金额达售价的 15%，最高 6,000 元/部，预计总补贴额在 500 亿至 1,000 亿元之间，刺激消费电子市场增长。 • 2024-2026 年，智能手机市场将进入 AI 大模型单侧运行阶段，AI 手机渗 透率持续提升，年复合增速可能超过 90%，利好相关供应链企业，尤其头 部安卓系及苹果系公司。 • 2025 年汽车以旧换新政策力度加大，范围更广，预计刺激效果强于 2024 年，乘用车报废更新量可能达 1,750 万辆，新能源汽车免征 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the housing storage business, driven by government policies, presents both opportunities and challenges for urban investment companies as they seek to transform and diversify their revenue streams [1][25]. - The report outlines the evolution of housing storage policies, which have progressed from exploration to pilot and now to comprehensive promotion, with significant financial support from the central bank and local governments [4][5]. - The housing storage initiative aims to alleviate inventory pressure in the real estate market while enhancing the supply of affordable housing, particularly targeting low- and middle-income groups [8][25]. Group 2 - The report identifies key characteristics of the current housing storage actions, including government leadership, broad coverage, market-oriented operations, diverse funding sources, and a focus on efficiency [8][9]. - It highlights the current status of urban investment companies in the housing storage business, noting that 69 cities have announced plans for such initiatives, primarily in first- and second-tier cities [11][12]. - Various operational models for housing storage are discussed, including direct acquisition of new homes, mergers and acquisitions, and innovative approaches like "old for new" and "rent-to-buy" schemes, each with distinct advantages and challenges [16][21]. Group 3 - The report analyzes the financial implications for urban investment companies engaging in housing storage, emphasizing the need for sound financial health and compliance with banking credit requirements to avoid hidden debts [18][19]. - It discusses the regional disparities in policy execution, noting that economically developed areas are more likely to successfully implement housing storage policies compared to regions with weaker fiscal conditions [27][30]. - The report concludes that while the housing storage policies offer significant opportunities for urban investment companies to enhance their asset portfolios and revenue streams, they also face challenges related to execution and market conditions [25][29].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies involved in housing storage business Core Insights - The housing storage business is gaining attention as a dual strategy to reduce inventory in the real estate market and improve the construction of affordable housing systems, primarily driven by government policies and local state-owned enterprises [1][3][5] - The current housing storage actions are characterized by government leadership, market-oriented operations, diverse funding sources, and a focus on efficiency [8][9] - The report highlights the urgent need for urban investment companies to transform their operations to reduce reliance on government cash flow and enhance sustainable development capabilities [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Rise and Development of Housing Storage - Housing storage refers to the acquisition of unsold residential properties by the government or state-owned enterprises for conversion into affordable housing or other public uses [3] - The concept emerged in 2008 during the global financial crisis and has resurfaced due to changing supply-demand dynamics in the real estate market [3] 2. Policy Evolution - The policy evolution of housing storage can be divided into exploration, pilot, and full promotion stages, with significant developments occurring in 2022 and 2023 [4][5] - In 2024, the People's Bank of China announced a 3000 billion yuan support plan for affordable housing, expanding the scope and scale of housing storage initiatives [5] 3. Characteristics of Current Housing Storage Actions - The current housing storage actions are government-led, cover a wide range, operate on market principles, and emphasize efficiency [8][9] - Local state-owned enterprises are the primary implementers of these policies, which aim to increase the supply of affordable housing and alleviate inventory pressure in the real estate market [8][9] 4. Current Status and Main Operation Models of Urban Investment Companies - As of 2024, 69 cities have announced housing storage plans, with significant participation from urban investment companies in major provinces [11][12] - The operation models include direct acquisition of new homes, mergers and acquisitions, and innovative approaches like "old for new" exchanges [16][18] 5. Opportunities and Challenges - Urban investment companies can leverage housing storage policies to activate land assets and access low-cost funding, enhancing their operational capacity and cash flow [25] - However, challenges include regional disparities in policy execution and financial constraints faced by urban investment companies, particularly in less developed areas [27][30]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic environment and its implications for various sectors, particularly focusing on fiscal and monetary policies in China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Data Vacuum Period**: The period from New Year's Day to the Two Sessions is characterized by a lack of economic data, necessitating attention to government meetings and policy directions, especially regarding economic growth targets [2][3][4] 2. **Fiscal and Financial Monitoring**: Key areas to monitor include the issuance of special bonds, long-term government bonds, and the debt situation of local state-owned enterprises, which directly impact fiscal spending and economic stabilization [2][4][5] 3. **Market Sentiment**: A significant drop in market trading volume from approximately 2.5 trillion yuan to 1.4 trillion yuan indicates weak investor sentiment and a preference for bonds over stocks [2][8] 4. **Government's Growth Commitment**: The government shows a strong commitment to stabilizing growth, particularly in low-price environments, while also needing to manage real estate risks, especially with significant debt maturities in April [2][9] 5. **Market Bottom Assessment**: Historical data suggests that the market bottom may be around 3,050 points, based on previous retracement levels and current trading volumes [10] 6. **Monetary Policy Expectations**: There is an expectation for potential interest rate cuts to address high real interest rates and low inflation, with a focus on easing monetary policy [11] 7. **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: Short-term strategies should favor dividend stocks (e.g., banks, consumer goods), while mid to long-term investments should focus on consumer services and small-cap growth stocks [13] 8. **Bond Market Dynamics**: The bond market may experience capital gains as new funds enter, but risks exist if government bond issuance increases or if external shocks occur [15][16] 9. **Real Estate Market Impact**: Current interest rate reductions have not sufficiently stabilized housing prices in key urban areas, indicating a need for more significant rate cuts to support the real estate market [33][34] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Government Meetings**: High-level government meetings scheduled from January to March will outline key policies and economic targets, which are crucial for market expectations [3][6] 2. **Investment Planning**: The focus on infrastructure investment and specific provincial projects will significantly influence fixed asset investment performance [5][12] 3. **ETF Market Growth**: The anticipated growth in ETF products and their potential to inject new capital into the market is a positive sign for future investment opportunities [29][30] 4. **Sector Performance**: Recent market performance shows a decline across various sectors, with significant outflows from technology and financial sectors, indicating a shift in investor focus [22][25] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic landscape, fiscal and monetary policies, market sentiment, and investment strategies.