《新型储能规模化建设专项行动方案 （2025—2027 年）》政策解读 联合资信 工商评级三部 |黄露 该《行动方案》以"规模化"为主线，以"市场化"为路径，以"安 全化"为底线，为新型储能产业提供了未来三年的清晰路线图。《行动方案》 不仅是一项产业刺激政策，更是中国构建新型电力系统、实现"双碳"目 标的关键支点。随着 2025—2027 年三年攻坚期的推进，储能将从"锦上添 花"走向"不可或缺"，利好具备技术实力、规模优势、资源储备的制造商 和运营商。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、政策背景及主要内容 "双碳"目标背景下，我国新能源装机快速增长，2024年底已占全国发电装机容 量的42%，但其"间歇性、波动性"特征导致电网调峰、保供压力骤增，弃风弃光现 象依旧存在，因此亟需大规模储能电池这种灵活调节资源；与此同时，也需要建立健 全储能主体参与电力市场的机制标准，保障大规模储能投资的有效转化。 2 具备独立法人资格、独立计量、可被电网直接监控和调度，符合相关标准，可作为独立主体参与电力市场的储能项目 3 指除抽水蓄能外，以输出电力为主要形式的储能项目 4 2024 年之前，中国储能企业 ...

联合资信 金融评级一部 |陈绪童 |李胤贤 商业银行个人贷款发展瓶颈： 业务拓展与资产处置的双重挑战 近年来，在宏观经济转型和政策引导下，我国商业银行信贷结构呈现"对公强、零售弱"特征，同 时个人贷款资产质量下行趋势凸显，个人贷款业务发展面临业务拓展和不良资产处置的双重挑战。 另一方面，个人贷款业务具有利率较高而风险分散优势，是商业银行应对当前低利率市场环境、息 差收窄及金融科技冲击的核心业务，如何突破个人信贷业务发展瓶颈对商业银行发展尤为重要。本 文基于近十年个人贷款业务宏观数据以及 2022－2025 年上半年样本商业银行微观数据系统分析了 商业银行个人贷款的规模与结构变化、资产质量演变、风险成因与暴露机制，以及风险管控与不良 处置方式，旨在为商业银行突破当前瓶颈提供实践参考。展望未来，随着宏观经济修复、房地产市 场企稳、金融科技进步以及消费金融政策发力等，个人贷款质量有望趋于稳定，住房贷款将保持商 业银行个人贷款业务基本盘地位，而消费贷款有望成为推动个人贷款发展的主要动力，但经营贷款 仍面临较大压力，同时各类型商业银行个人贷款业务结构及质量表现分化趋势或将持续。 www.lhratings.com 研究 ...

长周期下城投企业财务表现追踪 ——政策成效显著，加杠杆进程中断 联合资信 公用评级二部 谢 晨 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、引言 本文选取 2015－2024 年及 2025 年上半年财务数据完整的 1114 家样本城投企业， 持续追踪其盈利能力、融资缺口、流动性压力、投资活动、杠杆水平等相关指标表现， 发现样本城投企业指标表现与监管政策的变动之间存在显著关联，并依据监管力度的 强弱进行动态调整，趋同和分化趋势并存。2015 年以来，样本城投企业盈利指标持续 弱化，未来或进一步下探，需审慎举债经营；"控增化存"政策配套"压降+置换" 组合拳，2024 年样本城投企业净融资额及融资率降幅明显；不同地区和信用级别的 样本城投企业融资率和现金短期债务比均低位运行，表现趋同，短期内城投企业流动 性压力难以有效缓解；不同地区和信用级别的样本城投企业转型发展的内生动力和难 易程度呈现明显分化，转型过程需重视与当期产业发展之间互促；2024 年以来，样本 城投企业全部债务增速已步入"低位企稳"通道；2024 年底样本城投企业杠杆水平 首次下降，加杠杆进程中断，政策成效显著。 二、长周期下城投企业债 ...

近 5 年首次！固定投资同比转负 ——2025 年三季度经济数据点评 联合资信 主权部 |王 妍 吴 玥 张 振 2025 年三季度 GDP 同比增长 4.8%，经济增长动能有所减弱。值得关 注的是，固定资产投资同比转为下降，为近五年来的首次。虽然制造业升级 和新兴产业发展的积极因素正在积累，但房地产调整、消费疲软等传统增长 引擎的减速仍在持续。展望四季度，外需不确定性及内需内生动力缺失仍是 经济运行压力的来源所在。下阶段需要宏观政策进一步发力，在稳定房地产 市场的同时，着力扩大内需、提振信心，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的 合理增长。密切关注本周召开的二十届四中全会与月底可能的中美会谈，将 为下阶段政策基调与外部环境前景提供指引。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 经济增速有所回落，环比动能偏弱。10 月 20 日国家统计局发布的数据显示，2025 年前三季度，我国 GDP 为 101.50 万亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长 5.2%。三季度 当季同比增长 4.8%；环比增长 1.1%，显著低于过去两年 1.5%的水平，显示经济复苏 的内生动力仍在修复过程中。经济增速放缓一方面源于外部环境复 ...

! !"#$!%&'()*+,- +../01234567& 89: !"#$ &'()*+ ,-./ ,012,3 4 !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>.? @AB2CDE!568FGHIJKLMNOPQRS56TUV+W ,-MNGXYZ[9 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 ! ! !"#$%&'()*+ 2024 年以来，债券市场"资产荒"表现持续，担保机构作为债券增信的提供者， 其业务发展态势与债券市场资产供给情况紧密相关。 近年来，我国债券市场呈现明显的"资产荒"特征，主要表现为在市场流动性保 持合理充裕的前提下，"稀缺的优质资产"与"过剩的资金供给"不匹配，市场处于 低利率环境，而低利率与"资产荒"之间相互作用。 中国人民银行发布的《2024 年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》指出"从微观层 面看，市场缺乏安全资产对长期国债收益率也产生了影响。一季度，银行、保险等机 构出于'早买早收益'的考虑，资产配置需求集中释放。"该表述不仅肯定了"市场 缺乏安全资产"这一核心问题，更反映出金融机构在资产短缺预期下的行为模式—— 通过提前配置来锁定有限的安全资产，这种 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the banking industry, indicating a cautious but positive investment environment for the sector in the first half of 2025 [4][24]. Core Insights - The banking sector in China has shown stable development in the first half of 2025, with credit asset quality remaining stable and sufficient provisions and capital levels [4][30]. - The net interest margin of commercial banks has continued to decline, but the rate of decline has slowed, posing challenges to profitability [7][33]. - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement moderately accommodative monetary policies, which will help maintain liquidity in the banking system [6][24]. Industry Data Summary - As of the second quarter of 2025, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 1.49%, a slight decrease from the previous year, while the ratio of loans under special attention was 2.17% [30]. - The total assets of banking institutions reached 467.34 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.12% [26]. - The capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks was 15.58%, slightly down from the previous year, but still indicating a sufficient capital level [34]. Regulatory Policies Summary - The People's Bank of China has introduced various monetary policy measures to stabilize the economy, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [24][25]. - New regulations have been implemented to enhance the management of internet lending and improve the quality of financial services [10][11]. Bond Issuance Statistics - In the first half of 2025, 44 domestic commercial banks issued 83 financial bonds, raising a total of 512.9 billion yuan, a significant increase of 65.26% compared to the same period in 2024 [16][17]. - The issuance of technology innovation bonds by 21 commercial banks totaled 200.1 billion yuan, reflecting a growing trend in supporting technological advancements [16][17]. Credit Quality Analysis - The report highlights that while the asset quality of commercial banks remains stable, there are concerns regarding the potential downward pressure on credit quality due to external trade uncertainties and a sluggish real estate market [7][30]. - The provisioning coverage ratio for non-performing loans was reported at 211.97%, indicating a robust buffer against potential loan losses [30].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable development trend in the domestic reinsurance industry, with a focus on the growth of direct insurance premiums and the impact of regulatory changes on reinsurance companies [5][10]. Core Insights - The direct insurance sector has shown robust growth, with total original insurance premium income reaching 56,963.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.15%. In the first half of 2025, this figure was 37,349.82 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.31% [4]. - The reinsurance market in China is characterized by high concentration, with the top five reinsurance companies holding approximately 75% of the market share. The two largest companies, China Life Reinsurance Co., Ltd. and China Property Reinsurance Co., Ltd., account for 48.52% of the market [6][8]. - Regulatory changes, particularly the financial reinsurance new regulations, have impacted the premium income of reinsurance companies, leading to a slight decline in revenue in 2024 and the first half of 2025 [5][10]. - Investment income for reinsurance companies has been under pressure due to low bond market yields, with overall investment returns lower than those of direct insurance companies. The average annual comprehensive investment return for the reinsurance sector was 7.21% in 2024, compared to 3.43% for financial investments [7][8]. - The net profit of the reinsurance industry saw a significant increase in the first half of 2025, reaching 44.50 billion yuan, a rise of 99.42% year-on-year, driven by improved cost management and reduced claims pressure [9][10]. Summary by Sections Direct Insurance Growth - Direct insurance companies have experienced a strong growth trajectory, with premium income increasing significantly in both 2024 and the first half of 2025 [4][5]. Reinsurance Market Dynamics - The reinsurance market remains stable despite regulatory challenges, with a high concentration of market share among leading companies [5][6]. Investment Performance - Reinsurance companies face challenges in investment returns due to a conservative investment strategy and low interest rates, impacting overall profitability [7][8]. Profitability Trends - The reinsurance sector's profitability has improved significantly, with major companies dominating the profit landscape [8][9]. Regulatory Environment - Ongoing regulatory developments are expected to shape the future of the reinsurance market, with a focus on enhancing the industry's stability and growth potential [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment rating for the life insurance industry, with a focus on growth potential in the context of regulatory support and market demand for insurance products [4][5]. Core Insights - Since 2025, the demand for savings, wealth management, and retirement products among residents has continued to rise, leading to a growth in premium income for life insurance companies, although the growth rate has slowed [4]. - In the first half of 2025, life insurance companies achieved original insurance premium income of CNY 27,705.26 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.38%, but the growth rate has decreased compared to the previous year [4]. - The structure of premium income remains dominated by life and health insurance, with life insurance accounting for 82.57% and health insurance for 16.65% of total premium income in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The industry is experiencing a peak in claims payments due to a concentration of maturing policies, with claims expenditures reaching CNY 8,269.04 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.08% [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The life insurance market remains highly concentrated, with the top five companies holding nearly 50% of the market share, indicating a stable competitive landscape [5]. - Regulatory support for the multi-pillar pension system is expected to enhance future business development opportunities [5][6]. Financial Performance - Life insurance companies have seen a continuous increase in their investment assets, with a notable rise in equity investments amid a low-interest-rate environment [7]. - As of June 2025, the total investment balance of life insurance companies reached CNY 32.60 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 8.86% [7]. - The comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio for life insurance companies was 196.6% as of June 2025, indicating a strong capital position [9]. Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies have maintained a cautious approach, continuously improving the regulatory framework to enhance risk management and business structure optimization within the insurance industry [10]. - The frequency of policy and regulatory updates related to the insurance sector has remained high, reflecting ongoing efforts to deepen risk prevention measures [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth trend in the property insurance industry, with a focus on diversified product strategies to explore new development spaces [3][4]. Core Insights - The property insurance companies have maintained growth in insurance business revenue, with auto insurance being the primary business line, although its revenue share is declining [3][4]. - The overall insurance business revenue for property insurance companies reached 964.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.11% [3]. - The health insurance segment has shown significant growth, with revenue increasing by 16.68% to 160.9 billion yuan in the same period [3]. - The market concentration remains high, with the top three property insurance companies holding over 60% of the market share [4]. - The net profit of property insurance companies significantly improved, with a total of 53.7 billion yuan in net profit for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.65% [8]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The auto insurance business generated 450.5 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 4.50%, while the share of this segment continues to decline [3]. - Non-auto insurance segments, particularly health insurance, are gaining importance, with health insurance revenue reaching 160.9 billion yuan [3]. - The overall premium income for property insurance companies was 964.5 billion yuan, with a notable increase in health insurance and a slight decline in agricultural and liability insurance growth rates [3][8]. Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the property insurance market has remained stable, with high market concentration and significant advantages for leading companies [4]. - Internet insurance has shown robust growth, with a premium scale of 494.9 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 32.8% over the past decade [5]. Investment and Financial Health - The investment income of property insurance companies has improved, with an annualized financial investment return of 3.05% and a comprehensive investment return of 5.51% in 2024 [6]. - As of June 2025, the total investment balance of property insurance companies reached 2.35 trillion yuan, with a significant portion allocated to bonds [6][10]. - The solvency ratios of property insurance companies have improved, with core solvency ratios at 211.2% and comprehensive solvency ratios at 240.6% as of June 2025 [10]. Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies are maintaining a cautious approach, focusing on risk prevention and promoting high-quality development within the insurance industry [11]. - Recent regulatory changes aim to enhance the stability and governance of insurance companies, ensuring a more robust operational framework [11].

Group 1: Trade Performance - In September 2025, China's exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year, up from a previous growth of 4.4%[5] - Imports increased by 7.4%, compared to a prior growth of 1.3%[5] - The trade surplus for September was $90.45 billion, down from $102.33 billion in the previous month[5] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The growth in exports is attributed to market diversification, optimization of export product structure, and a rebound in demand for high-tech products driven by the global AI wave[3] - The low base effect from September 2024, where exports fell by 6.3 percentage points to 2.3%, also contributed to the current growth figures[6] - High-tech product exports saw significant increases, with growth rates of 11.48% for high-tech products, 12.63% for electromechanical products, and 24.85% for general machinery[7] Group 3: Challenges Ahead - The announcement of a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports by the U.S. starting November 1, 2025, introduces uncertainty for China's trade outlook[16] - The potential economic backlash from high tariffs could negatively impact both the U.S. and Chinese economies, complicating trade relations[18] - Despite the challenges, the upcoming Canton Fair in October 2025 is expected to showcase a record participation of over 32,000 companies, indicating resilience in China's trade sector[19]