Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth outlook for the retail industry in China, with a focus on online retail and the transformation of offline channels [3][20]. Core Insights - The retail industry in China is experiencing a dual engine of growth driven by consumption upgrades and cost-performance demands, with online retail showing a steady increase while offline retail is facing differentiation [3][20]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, with online retail accounting for approximately 30% of total retail sales [3][20]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior, with the Z generation increasing spending on smart home appliances and emotional consumption products, while the silver economy is driving growth in health products and services for the elderly [4][20]. Summary by Sections Online Retail - The online retail market in China continued to grow steadily, with physical online retail sales increasing by 6% year-on-year, although the penetration rate slightly declined [5][20]. - Traditional e-commerce platforms like Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo dominate the market with a combined market share of 65%, while new platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou are experiencing explosive growth through content-driven sales [5][6][20]. - Instant retail and community group buying are identified as key growth drivers, with instant retail sales increasing by 25% year-on-year [6][20]. Chain Supermarkets - The chain supermarket sector is undergoing a critical transformation, with 47.5% of surveyed enterprises reporting sales growth, while 45% face profit decline [9][20]. - The industry is experiencing a "store closure wave," with a closure-to-opening ratio of 0.67, indicating a contraction in overall scale [10][20]. - Leading companies like Walmart and Hema are adapting their strategies to focus on membership models and fresh produce, while local supermarkets are optimizing layouts and improving product quality [11][20]. Shopping Centers - The shopping center market is witnessing a recovery, with foot traffic in first to fifth-tier cities increasing by 8.7% year-on-year [12][20]. - Experience-driven upgrades are becoming essential, with a significant portion of shopping centers incorporating dining, entertainment, and family-oriented experiences [12][20]. - The integration of online and offline experiences is creating new growth opportunities, with projects like JD Mall and Suning integrating digital experiences with physical retail [14][20]. Industry Challenges and Future Trends - The retail industry faces challenges such as consumer fatigue and rising cost pressures, with rental and labor costs increasing by 4-5% [15][16][20]. - Future trends indicate that online retail will continue to grow, with a focus on instant retail and technological empowerment, while chain supermarkets will accelerate their transformation towards community-oriented and online integration [18][20]. - Shopping centers will deepen experience upgrades and innovate their operations, with a focus on sustainability and digital transformation [19][20].

本版为简版报告，如希望获取详版报告，请联系文末投资人服务。 战略性新兴产业—低空经济行 业信用研究（简版报告） 1. 低空经济应用场景将遵循"先物后人、从特殊到一般"的路线快速拓展； 2. 低空物流将实现规模化运营，城市空中交通将实现商业化运营； 3. eVTOL、飞行汽车等新型低空飞行器将成为未来低空出行的主流工具； 4. 低空经济行业内企业主要包括低空经济整机企业、零部件企业、运营服务企业，信用评级 覆盖 AA+、AA-、AAA、AA 和 A+等，近三年来信用水平总体保持稳定； 5. 低空经济整机企业信用特征总体表现为高成长性、高经营风险和高财务风险，对其信用分 析思路为首要看团队，其次看产品，再次看产业链整合能力，继而看资本实力，最后看资金保障 能力。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 联合资信 研究中心 工商一部 | 邓博文 李小建 崔濛骁 金剑 李天娇 孙巧莉 李子昕 核心观点： 详版正文目录 | 一、低空经济行业发展现状及趋势 | | --- | | (一)低空经济的定义及行业特征 | | 1. 低空经济的定义 . | | 2. 低空经济行业特征 | | (二)低空经济相关产业政策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Xinjiang has a significant strategic position and obvious resource endowment advantages, forming a modern industrial system. In 2024, its economic growth rate remained among the top in China. The region has weak fiscal self - sufficiency but relies on resource reserves and superior subsidies to improve the balance of revenue and expenditure. The overall debt risk is controllable, and the debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises has decreased to some extent, but there are differences in short - term solvency among different regions [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Xinjiang's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Xinjiang is strategically important with rich reserves of minerals, solar, and wind energy. It has a large land area, a long border, and is adjacent to many countries. By the end of 2024, its permanent population was 26.228 million, and the urbanization rate was 60.36%. The production and construction corps is an important part of Xinjiang [6][7]. - In terms of transportation and resources, by the end of 2024, Xinjiang had 230,000 kilometers of roads, 9202 kilometers of railway operating mileage, 26.8 kilometers of urban rail transit, 27 civil transport airports, and 19 open ports. It also had abundant land, water, energy, mineral, and tourism resources [8][9]. - In 2024, Xinjiang's GDP was 2.053408 trillion yuan, ranking 23rd in China, with a growth rate of 6.10%, ranking second. The industrial structure was adjusted to 12.5:39.6:47.9, initially forming a modern industrial system [9]. - National strategies and policies such as the "Three Bases and One Corridor", "Five Strategic Positions", "Ten Industrial Clusters", and counterpart assistance to Xinjiang, as well as local economic promotion policies, have promoted Xinjiang's development. In 2024, 19 counterpart - assistance provinces and cities arranged nearly 20 billion yuan in assistance funds, and central enterprises signed investment agreements worth 940 billion yuan [11]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt - Xinjiang has weak fiscal self - sufficiency. In 2024, the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was 34.38%. To improve the balance of revenue and expenditure, it increased revenue from the paid use of state - owned resources and assets and actively sought superior subsidies, which accounted for about 61% of the comprehensive financial resources in 2024 [13][15]. - In 2024, Xinjiang's general public budget revenue was 214.46 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 10.5% in the same caliber. The government - funded revenue was 53.523 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [14]. - By the end of 2024, Xinjiang's local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio were 158.49% and 53.04% respectively, ranking 11th and 24th in China. The local comprehensive financial resources' coverage of government debt balance ranked in the upper - middle level in China [19]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefectures and Cities in Xinjiang 3.2.1 Economic Development of Prefectures and Cities - The economic development of prefectures and cities in Xinjiang is uneven, with significant regional differences in industrial structure. The northern region centered on Urumqi has relatively strong economic strength, the gap between the north and the south is gradually narrowing, and the eastern region leads the growth in economic growth rate. Hami City has the highest per - capita GDP in Xinjiang [22]. - In 2024, the GDP of the northern region was 1.268094 trillion yuan (accounting for 61.8% of Xinjiang), with a growth rate of 5.7%. The GDP of the southern region was 612.833 billion yuan (29.8%), with a growth rate of 6.0%. The GDP of the eastern region was 172.481 billion yuan (8.4%), with a growth rate of 9.9% [28][29]. - The industrial structure of prefectures and cities in Xinjiang varies greatly. Changji, Karamay, Bayingolin, Hami, and Turpan have a relatively high proportion of secondary industries, while other prefectures and cities are mainly dominated by the tertiary industry, but the proportion of the tertiary industry varies significantly [30]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt - In 2024, the general public budget revenue of all prefectures and cities in Xinjiang increased, but the growth rate slowed down. Most prefectures and cities' government - funded revenue increased, but the scale was relatively small. Urumqi had the largest general public budget revenue and government - funded revenue. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate varied greatly among regions, and superior subsidies accounted for a high proportion of comprehensive fiscal revenue, with more subsidies going to the southern region [33][34]. - In 2024, the local government debt balance of all prefectures and cities in Xinjiang increased. The debt ratio of Urumqi was the highest in the region. The debt - to - GDP ratio of some prefectures and cities in the southern region was relatively high, but they could receive more superior subsidies [37]. - Xinjiang has implemented the "1 + 7+14" debt - resolution plan, accelerated the withdrawal of financing platforms, and issued local government replacement bonds. It has also carried out dynamic monitoring and supervision of all - caliber local debt, project penetration supervision, and full - life - cycle performance management [39][40]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Xinjiang 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of September 2025, there were 33 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang. The credit ratings of these enterprises are mainly AA, and high - level enterprises are concentrated in Urumqi [44]. 3.3.2 Bond - Issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bonds issued by urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang increased year - on - year, mainly concentrated in Urumqi and Ili. The bond financing showed a net inflow. From January to September 2025, the debt financing was in tight balance, and the bond financing of Urumqi's urban investment enterprises turned into net repayment [45][46]. 3.3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - By the end of 2024, the total debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang decreased by 5.86% year - on - year. The debt structure was mainly bank - related and bond - related debts. The overall debt burden of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in each prefecture and city was moderate, but Ili and Changji faced greater short - term debt - repayment pressure [49]. - In terms of bond redemption, in 2026, the scale of due bonds of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang was 38.621 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in Urumqi [53]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue of Prefectures and Cities for the Debt of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - By the end of 2024, in more than half of the prefectures and cities in Xinjiang, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources exceeded 200%. Urumqi had the highest ratio, exceeding 600%, while Kashgar had the lowest ratio, at 118.39% [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Hubei Province has an important transportation position, obvious resource endowment advantages, and its economic aggregate and per capita GDP rank among the top in the country. The provincial government's debt burden has increased but remains at a relatively low - medium level nationwide. Debt resolution work is advancing steadily, and the debt risks of urban investment enterprises are generally controllable [4][5]. - The "one - main, two - deputy" regional economic pattern in Hubei is stable, with significant differences in the economic development levels of different cities and prefectures. The general public budget revenue of each city and prefecture has increased year - on - year, but the fiscal self - sufficiency ability is generally weak [4]. - After the introduction of a package of debt resolution plans in 2024, the issuance volume and scale of urban investment bonds in Hubei decreased significantly year - on - year. In 2025, the issuance scale increased year - on - year, but the bond financing of most cities and prefectures showed a net outflow [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Hubei Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Economic Development Status - Hubei has an important transportation position and rich resources. It is a comprehensive transportation and communication hub in central China. The province has abundant water energy, mineral, tourism, and education resources. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, it will invest 820 billion yuan in comprehensive transportation construction [7]. - The permanent population has slightly decreased, and the urbanization rate is slightly lower than the national average. In 2024, the GDP and per capita GDP ranked 7th and 9th in the country respectively, and the GDP growth rate was 5.8%. In the first half of 2025, the GDP growth rate was 6.18%, higher than the national average [9]. - The industrial structure is continuously optimized, with the service industry remaining dominant. Traditional industries are stable, and strategic emerging industries are developing rapidly. The "Optical - Chip - Display - Terminal - Network" industry cluster centered in Wuhan East Lake High - tech Zone is expected to reach a trillion - level scale [11]. - Policies such as the "14th Five - Year Plan for the Development of the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration" and the "Wuhan Metropolitan Area Development Plan" are beneficial to Hubei's economic development. Since 2025, Hubei has introduced a series of policies to promote economic development [14][18]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - General public budget revenue ranks in the middle in the country, with a low fiscal self - sufficiency rate. In 2024, it was 393.788 billion yuan, ranking 11th in the country. From January to June 2025, it was 235.334 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.6% [21]. - Government - funded revenue was basically the same as the previous year, and the contribution of land use right transfer fees increased. The scale of superior subsidy revenue is large, and the comprehensive financial strength ranks in the middle - upper reaches of the country. In 2024, the superior subsidy revenue was 561.319 billion yuan, ranking 3rd in the country, and the comprehensive financial strength ranked 8th [22][26]. - The overall debt burden is at a relatively low - medium level nationwide. At the end of 2024, the local government debt balance was 1,858.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.95%. The debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio increased by 14.12 and 2.97 percentage points respectively [29]. - Hubei strictly implements the debt resolution plan, focusing on "three - asset" reform and actively seeking replacement bond quotas. It has completed the task of exiting financing platforms ahead of schedule, and the debt resolution work is advancing steadily [30]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Strength of Each City and Prefecture in Hubei Province 3.2.1 Economic Development of Each City and Prefecture - The "one - main, two - deputy" regional economic pattern is stable, and the economic development levels of different cities and prefectures vary significantly. Wuhan has a strong population siphon effect. Huangshi, Xiaogan, and Jingmen have relatively fast GDP growth rates [33]. - Different regions have different industrial characteristics. The "Han - Xiao - Sui - Xiang - Shi" region has a developed automobile - related industry, and the "Yi - Jing - Jing" region has a well - developed chemical industry. Emerging industries such as the "Optical - Chip - Display - Terminal - Network" in Wuhan are developing rapidly [38]. - In 2024, Huangshi, Xiaogan, and Jingmen had relatively fast GDP growth rates. In the first half of 2025, Shiyan and Jingmen ranked among the top two in terms of GDP growth rate [40][41]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Each City and Prefecture - In the first half of 2025, the general public budget revenue of each city and prefecture increased year - on - year. Xiaogan, Shiyan, Huanggang, and Huangshi had relatively fast growth rates, while Wuhan had a slower growth rate [44]. - Affected by the real estate market, the government - funded revenue of some cities and prefectures decreased year - on - year. The government - funded revenue of different cities and prefectures showed a differentiated trend [48]. - The government debt balance of each city and prefecture has increased, and the debt - to - GDP ratio has risen. The debt resolution ideas of each city and prefecture are consistent with the provincial level, and various debt resolution measures have been taken [51]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Hubei Province 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - Bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hubei are mainly at the prefectural and district - county levels. Wuhan has the largest number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises, accounting for 25.22% of the province. High - credit - rated urban investment enterprises are mainly concentrated in Wuhan [56]. 3.3.2 Bond - Issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bond issuances by urban investment enterprises in Hubei decreased significantly year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the bond - issuing scale increased year - on - year, but the overall bond financing showed a net outflow [57][59]. 3.3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hubei was mainly in the form of bank loans and bonds. The overall debt burden of urban investment enterprises in Ezhou and Wuhan is relatively heavy [63]. - As of the end of June 2025, most cities and prefectures' urban investment enterprises had a slightly improved cash - to - short - term - debt ratio, but there was still significant short - term debt - repayment pressure in Suizhou, Enshi, and Ezhou [68]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue of Each City and Prefecture for the Debt of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - The scale of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" in Wuhan is the largest, followed by Xiangyang, Yichang, Jingzhou, and Huangshi. Except for Shennongjia Forestry District and Enshi Prefecture, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources in other cities and prefectures exceeds 250% [74].

Policy Overview - In October 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance allocated the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan in special bonds to support the old-for-new consumption policy, completing the annual 300 billion yuan central funding plan[3] - The 2025 old-for-new subsidy policy has expanded in scale, duration, and coverage compared to the previous year, with a total funding of 300 billion yuan distributed in four batches throughout the year[4] Economic Impact - From January to September 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 365,877 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with significant growth in categories affected by the old-for-new policy, such as home appliances and furniture[9] - Retail sales in the home appliance sector grew by 48.3% year-on-year, while furniture retail sales increased by 33.2% in the first three quarters of 2025[9] Consumer Behavior - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival in 2025 saw total e-commerce sales reach 16,950 billion yuan, a 14.2% increase year-on-year, with home appliances accounting for 2,668 billion yuan, or 16.5% of total sales[11] - The introduction of financial support measures, such as interest subsidies for consumer loans, has further stimulated consumption, particularly among middle and low-income groups[10] Industry Challenges - As the old-for-new policy enters its second year, the marginal effectiveness of policy incentives is decreasing, and the home appliance industry faces challenges from a sluggish real estate market and insufficient demand[13] - The home appliance sector's retail sales for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 670.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.2% year-on-year growth, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly in the third quarter[12] Future Outlook - The focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes "boosting consumption," with coordinated efforts from national and local levels to implement targeted subsidy policies and ensure consumer confidence[14] - The transition from "subsidy-driven" to "endogenous growth" in the home appliance industry is anticipated, with potential adjustments in subsidy intensity and direction in the future[14]

Demand Outlook - The short-term outlook for China's real estate market indicates continued decline, but the downside potential is limited[2] - Long-term demand for housing is expected to decrease significantly due to factors such as declining marriage and birth rates, urbanization, and the growth of affordable housing and rental markets[2] Population and Housing Demand - China's total population peaked at 1.412 billion in 2022 and is projected to decline to approximately 1.26 billion by 2050, with an aging population exceeding 27%[6] - The primary home-buying demographic (ages 26-35) is expected to shrink from 216 million in 2020 to 167 million by 2025, and further to 126 million by 2050[7] Urbanization and Housing Supply - Urbanization rate increased from 55.5% in 2015 to 67% in 2024, but growth is expected to slow as it approaches 75%[10] - The annual increase in urban population has decreased to 5-8 million, indicating a potential reduction in housing demand[10] Marriage and Birth Rates - The crude marriage rate has dropped from 9.92‰ in 2013 to 4.30‰ in 2024, while the total fertility rate has fallen from 1.54 in 2015 to approximately 1.00 in 2024, significantly below the replacement level of 2.10[13][14] Economic Factors - The average disposable income for urban residents in 2024 is projected at 54,200 yuan, with a real growth rate of 4.4%, supporting housing demand despite a declining market[16] - The rental market is expected to grow, with rental housing currently accounting for 7.8% of urban housing stock, significantly lower than the 30% average in developed countries[20] Future Housing Demand Projections - By 2050, the estimated housing update demand is approximately 689,000 units, with market-driven solutions accounting for about 70% of this demand[31] - The total demand for commodity housing is projected to decrease by nearly half compared to 2024 levels, indicating a significant contraction in the market[31] Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing structural oversupply, particularly in lower-tier cities, with vacancy rates exceeding 20% in some areas[21] - The competition among real estate companies is shifting from scale and speed to product quality and operational capabilities, necessitating a focus on customer needs and sustainable development[2][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2023, the implementation of the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution Plan" has achieved phased results. In December 2024, Document No. 99 provided a clear path for key provinces to exit. Driven by continuous debt resolution policies, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning have achieved certain results in debt resolution, with reduced implicit debt ratios and effectively relieved regional debt pressure. The three northeastern provinces are close to meeting the criteria for exiting the list of key provinces and are expected to be the first to exit in the future [2][5][71]. - Although the asset structures of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Changchun, Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian show varying degrees of transformation, with a continuous decline in the proportion of urban investment income, their profits still mainly come from government subsidies, and their self - hematopoietic ability has not been fundamentally improved. The actual transformation path is long and arduous, and it is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategic deployment for the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China in the new era [3][73][74]. - Urban investment enterprises can rely on regional resource endowments and strategic positions to cultivate industrial clusters with regional characteristics, achieve maximum industrial value - added through regional collaboration and differential development, eliminate inefficient and ineffective investments, and enhance their profitability and self - hematopoietic ability, thereby improving the fiscal health of local governments and providing strong support for regional high - quality development [3][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Introduction - Since 2023, the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution Plan" has achieved phased results. In early 2024, the State Council required key provinces to strengthen the management of government investment projects to prevent and resolve local debt risks. Northeast China, as an important old industrial base, has heavy regional debt pressure and is included in the 12 key debt - resolution provinces [5]. - Document No. 99 proposed exit criteria for key provinces, including two quantitative indicators (implicit debt ratio and local financial debt/GDP) and one qualitative indicator (ability to prevent and resolve local debt risks without policy support), and put forward clear requirements for the exit progress of financing platforms [6][7]. 3.2 Analysis of Debt Resolution Progress and Achievements in the Three Northeastern Provinces 3.2.1 Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Resolution Situations in the Three Northeastern Provinces - **Regional Development and Economic - Fiscal Conditions**: The three northeastern provinces are important gateways for opening up to Northeast Asia, with advantages in agriculture, industry, and characteristic industries. However, in 2024, the population decreased by over 800,000, mainly due to low birth rates, deep - seated aging, and labor outflow. In terms of economy and finance, Liaoning ranks high among key provinces, while Heilongjiang and Jilin are in the middle - lower reaches. In terms of debt, Yunnan and Guizhou have heavy debt burdens, Liaoning ranks in the middle, Heilongjiang has relatively low debt, and Jilin has a relatively high debt ratio [9][10]. - **Debt Resolution Progress**: As of the end of 2024, the implicit debt ratios of the three northeastern provinces are lower than the average of the eight non - key provinces with relatively high implicit debt ratios, meeting the quantitative requirements. Heilongjiang and Liaoning have basically met the two quantitative indicators. The three northeastern provinces have made significant progress in debt resolution through various measures. For example, some areas in Heilongjiang have reduced debt risk levels, Jilin has significantly reduced implicit debt, and the number of financing platforms in Jilin and Liaoning has decreased by over 50% [14][17][21]. 3.2.2 Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Resolution Situations in Key Cities of the Three Northeastern Provinces - **Economic, Fiscal, and Debt Conditions**: Among the 11 key cities selected, Dalian, Shenyang, Changchun, and Harbin have relatively large GDP and general public budget revenues. In 2024, the government debt balances and debt ratios of key cities increased compared with the end of 2023 [28][30][31]. - **Debt Scale and Repayment Pressure of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises**: As of the end of 2024, there are 25 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in the three northeastern provinces. Changchun's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises have a significantly higher interest - bearing debt scale. Most cities' bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' interest - bearing debt scales decreased in 2024 compared with the end of 2023, but the debt pressure of Changchun, Harbin, and Shenyang increased, while that of Dalian decreased [35][36]. - **Analysis of Debt Resolution Progress and Achievements in Key Cities**: In 2024, the implicit debt scales and implicit debt ratios of key cities in the Northeast decreased. Most key cities' bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' financing costs decreased or remained the same compared with the previous year. The spreads of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in key cities generally decreased [40][46][48]. 3.3 Exploration and Analysis of Development Transformation in Key Cities of the Three Northeastern Provinces 3.3.1 Financial Performance of Urban Investment Enterprises' Transformation - **Investment - related Assets**: From 2022 - 2024, the investment - related assets of Changchun and Shenyang's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises increased, Harbin's remained stable, and Dalian's decreased. The proportion of investment - related assets in Changchun, Shenyang, and Dalian increased [54]. - **Urban Investment - related Assets**: Shenyang and Harbin's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises reduced urban investment - related assets, while Changchun's increased, and Dalian's showed a relative expansion [55]. - **Operation - related Assets**: Changchun's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' operation - related assets showed a relative contraction, Harbin and Dalian's contracted, and Shenyang's expanded [59]. - **Urban Investment Business Income**: The proportion of urban investment business income of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Changchun, Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian decreased [60]. - **Profitability and Profit Structure**: From 2022 - 2024, Changchun's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' profitability declined, while Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian's increased. However, the profits of these enterprises still mainly come from government subsidies [62]. 3.3.2 Industrial Upgrading Directions in Key Cities and Market - oriented Participation of Urban Investment Enterprises - **Industrial Upgrading Directions**: Changchun focuses on the automobile industry and new clusters, Harbin builds a modern industrial system through innovation, Shenyang upgrades its industries in a high - end, intelligent, and green manner, and Dalian develops marine - related industries [66]. - **Market - oriented Participation of Urban Investment Enterprises**: Urban investment enterprises in Changchun, Harbin, Shenyang, and Dalian participate in industrial transformation through infrastructure investment, industrial fund operation, and equity investment [67]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The three northeastern provinces have achieved certain results in debt resolution and are close to meeting the criteria for exiting the list of key provinces. Key cities show different debt situations. Although the asset structures of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in some key cities show transformation, their self - hematopoietic ability has not been fundamentally improved [71][72][73]. - Urban investment enterprises in the three northeastern provinces need to carry out industrial investment around regional industrial upgrading directions, enhance their self - hematopoietic ability, and promote regional high - quality development [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Nanjing, an important central city in eastern China, has obvious regional advantages, convenient transportation, a high - level of urbanization, a reasonable industrial structure, and clear industrial planning. In 2024, its economic aggregate and general public budget revenue ranked second in Jiangsu Province. The general public budget revenue has good quality and strong fiscal self - sufficiency, while government - funded revenue decreased year - on - year. The government debt burden is at a medium level among prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu [4]. - Among Nanjing's districts, Jiangning District has the strongest overall economic strength, and core areas such as Jianye and Xuanwu Districts have prominent per - capita GDP levels. There are differences in fiscal strength among districts. Affected by the real - estate market adjustment, the government - funded revenues of Jiangning, Lishui, and Liuhe Districts are under significant pressure. Most areas have a relatively heavy overall debt burden [4]. - Nanjing has a large number of existing bond - issuing urban investment enterprises, with the main body ratings being AA and AA+. In 2024, the net financing of urban investment bonds turned from net inflow to net outflow. In the first three quarters of 2025, the net financing continued to show a large - scale net outflow. The debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises continued to grow, and some district - level platforms have heavy debt burdens and weak short - term solvency indicators [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Nanjing's Economic and Fiscal Strength (1) Regional Characteristics and Economic Development in Nanjing - Regional advantages and transportation: Nanjing is the capital of Jiangsu Province, with obvious regional advantages and a well - developed transportation network including railways, highways, waterways, and aviation. In 2024, it opened new international train lines, and its subway, airport, and port all had good development [5][7]. - Urbanization level: By the end of 2024, Nanjing's permanent population was 9.577 million, ranking second in Jiangsu, with an urbanization rate of 87.3%, higher than the provincial average [6]. - Economic aggregate: In 2024, Nanjing's GDP was 1.850081 trillion yuan, ranking second in Jiangsu, with a growth rate of 4.5%. In the first half of 2025, it was 917.918 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3% [8]. - Industrial structure: Nanjing has a reasonable industrial structure and a clear "2 + 6+6" industrial plan. In 2024, investment in advanced manufacturing and related product output increased [9]. - Policies and support: Since 2024, Nanjing has introduced various economic guidance policies and received support from the superior government in terms of fiscal transfer payments [12]. (2) Nanjing's Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - Fiscal revenue: In 2024, Nanjing's general public budget revenue ranked second in Jiangsu, with good quality and strong fiscal self - sufficiency. Government - funded revenue decreased year - on - year, and superior subsidies contributed to the comprehensive fiscal resources [14]. - Debt burden: By the end of 2024, Nanjing's local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio ranked eighth among prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu, at a medium level [16]. II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Nanjing's Districts (Counties, Cities) (1) Economic Strength of Nanjing's Districts - Regional planning: Nanjing will build a spatial structure of "rural areas in the north and south, a metropolis in the middle, development along the Yangtze River, and urban - rural integration" [18]. - Industrial development: Each district forms characteristic industrial clusters based on its own resource endowments, such as integrated circuits and biomedicine in Jiangbei New Area, and advanced manufacturing in Jiangning District [21]. - Economic development: In 2024, there were significant differences in the economic aggregates of Nanjing's districts. The economic growth rates of 11 districts were relatively balanced, and there were large differences in per - capita GDP levels [22]. (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Each District - Fiscal revenue: In 2024, there were differences in fiscal strength among districts. Most areas had stable general public budget revenues. Tax revenues accounted for a high proportion, and the government - funded revenues of Jiangning, Lishui, and Liuhe Districts were under pressure. The comprehensive fiscal resources of Jiangning and Jiangbei New Areas were in the first echelon [28][34]. - Debt situation: Except for Jianye District, the government debt balances of other districts increased. Most areas had a relatively heavy overall debt burden, with Jiangning District having the largest debt scale and Gaochun District having the heaviest debt burden [36]. - Debt management: Nanjing and its districts have strengthened debt monitoring and management, and each district has formulated differentiated debt management plans [39][41]. III. Debt - Repayment Ability of Nanjing's Urban Investment Enterprises (1) Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of September 30, 2025, there were 67 urban investment enterprises with existing bonds in Nanjing. The main body ratings were mainly AA and AA+. Since 2024, the ratings of 2 urban investment enterprises have been upgraded [44][45]. (2) Bond - Issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the bond - issuing scale of Nanjing's urban investment enterprises increased slightly year - on - year, and the net financing of urban investment bonds turned from net inflow to net outflow. In the first three quarters of 2025, the net financing continued to show a large - scale net outflow [46]. (3) Analysis of Debt - Repayment Ability - As of the end of 2024, the debt scale of Nanjing's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises continued to grow, concentrated in the city - level, Jiangning, and Jiangbei New Areas. Some district - level platforms had heavy debt burdens and weak short - term solvency indicators. In 2024 and the first half of 2025, the financing efforts of urban investment enterprises increased [51][59]. (4) Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for the Debt of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - The ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive fiscal resources" in Nanjing's districts ranges from 1321.72% to 127.20%, showing serious differentiation [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The debt resolution in Shandong Province has achieved certain results. The investment and debt growth rates of Shandong's urban investment companies have slowed down since 2024. Weifang City has benefited from debt - resolution policy support, with a decline in the debt scale of urban investment companies and an optimization of the debt structure. However, the overall debt burden of Shandong's urban investment companies is relatively heavy, the proportion of short - term debt is high, and the financing structure needs further optimization. In addition, negative public opinions of some urban investment companies have not been completely eliminated. In the short term, the implementation of the policies of "unified management of three types of debts" and "sinking all implicit debt replacement bonds to cities and counties" has a positive effect on alleviating the liquidity pressure of urban investment companies. In the long run, the core of future debt resolution lies in enhancing the self - hematopoietic ability of urban investment companies and accelerating their substantial transformation [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Debt Management in Shandong Province - **Overall Measures**: Since the implementation of the "package debt - resolution" plan, Shandong Province has taken diversified debt - resolution measures, including issuing 196.5 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds in 2024 to replace implicit debts. It has also coordinated with financial institutions, raised debt - resolution funds through various means, revitalized assets, deepened state - owned enterprise reforms, reduced the number of platforms, and promoted the transformation of enterprises into industrial - type ones [4] - **Policy Support**: In 2024 and 2025, Shandong Province issued a series of policies, such as the implementation of "unified management of three types of debts", the establishment of a financial enterprise alliance, and the promotion of the market - oriented transformation of government platforms. It is also planned to sink implicit debt replacement bonds to cities and counties and ensure the "zeroing out" of stock implicit debts by the end of 2028 [5] - **Regional Measures**: Different cities in Shandong have taken various debt - management measures, such as establishing working groups, strengthening debt monitoring, and implementing the "unified management of three types of debts". Some cities have also completed the replacement of high - interest debts and achieved certain results in debt resolution [6][7] - **Regional Achievements**: Some cities have achieved remarkable results. For example, Qingdao plans to receive an intentional investment of no less than 40 billion yuan from four major AMC in five years; Yantai has completed the replacement of high - interest urban investment debts with a comprehensive financing cost of 7% (inclusive) or above; Weifang has obtained a large amount of replacement bond quotas and carried out a "unified borrowing and repayment" replacement business [8] 2. Changes in Financial Indicators of Urban Investment Companies - **Investment**: Since 2024, the investment growth rate of Shandong's urban investment companies has continued to slow down, and the growth rates of self - operating assets, equity, and fund - type assets have exceeded those of urban construction - type assets. By the end of 2024, most regions had an increase in investment, except for Rizhao, Liaocheng, and Dongying. The regions with a relatively high proportion of urban construction - type assets include Weihai, Tai'an, etc.; those with a relatively high proportion of self - operating assets are Zibo, Jinan, and Yantai; and the regions with a relatively high proportion of equity and fund investment - type assets are Dezhou, Rizhao, and Weifang [11][13][14] - **Receivables**: Since 2024, the accounts receivable scale of Shandong's urban investment companies has continued to grow, but the overall growth rate has continued to slow down. The accounts receivable scales of Qingdao, Jinan, and Weifang are relatively large, and the growth rates of Liaocheng and Dezhou are relatively fast [16][18] - **Financing**: In 2024, the net cash inflow from financing activities of Shandong's urban investment companies continued to decline. The net inflow scale was relatively large in regions with solid economic foundations and strong financial strength, such as Qingdao and Jinan. The financing cash flow of Weifang's urban investment companies has been in a net outflow for three consecutive years, and the net cash flow from the financing activities of Weihai's urban investment companies has turned negative since 2023 [20][23] - **Interest - Bearing Debt**: The debt scale of Shandong's urban investment companies has continued to grow, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2024, the debt growth rates of Weifang and Rizhao were negative. The short - term debt proportion of most regions increased in 2024, except for some areas. The financing of urban investment companies still mainly relies on bank loans, and the proportion of other financing has fluctuated. In 2024, except for some regions, the proportion of other financing in most regions increased, and the financing structure needs further optimization [27][29][31] - **Debt Repayment Ability**: In 2024, the debt burden of Shandong's urban investment companies increased, and the cash - to - short - term - debt ratio further decreased. By the end of 2024, the total debt capitalization ratios of Zibo and Yantai were higher than the national average, and the cash - to - short - term - debt ratios of all regions in Shandong were lower than 0.60 times, indicating that urban investment companies still face relatively large pressure in debt repayment and liquidity [34][35] 3. Conclusion - **Achievements**: Shandong has used diversified means for debt resolution, achieving a slowdown in the growth rates of accounts receivable and debt scale of urban investment companies. The debt scale of Weifang's urban investment companies has decreased, and the debt structure has been optimized [38] - **Problems**: The overall debt burden of Shandong's urban investment companies is heavy, the proportion of short - term debt is high, and the financing structure needs further optimization. Negative public opinions in some cities have not been completely eliminated, and the regional financing environment needs improvement [38] - **Suggestions**: In the short term, the policies of "unified management of three types of debts" and "sinking all implicit debt replacement bonds to cities and counties" are helpful for alleviating liquidity pressure. In the long run, the key is to enhance the self - hematopoietic ability of urban investment companies and accelerate their substantial transformation [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Chengdu is a key city in the national regional development strategy, with significant economic scale and fiscal strength. In 2024, its economy steadily improved, and the general public budget revenue slightly increased, but the comprehensive fiscal resources declined due to the decrease in government - funded revenue. With favorable national policies, it aims to build into an influential regional economic and technological innovation center [4]. - Chengdu conducts industrial spatial layout around the principle of "Eastward Expansion, Southward Extension, Westward Control, Northward Reconstruction, and Central Optimization". The economic and fiscal strength shows a decreasing trend from the inner - circle to the outer - circle areas. The government debt level in the main urban area is much lower than that in other districts and counties, and the city is strengthening the resolution of existing debts [4]. - Affected by the implementation of a package of debt - resolution policies, the bond issuance scale in Chengdu decreased significantly in 2025, with net outflows in bond financing. The financing structure of bond - issuing城投 enterprises is mainly bank loans and bond financing. The short - term debt repayment pressure in the near - suburban and far - suburban areas is relatively large [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chengdu's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Chengdu is a provincial capital, sub - provincial city, and national central city, playing a prominent role in the national regional development strategy. It has obvious locational advantages, with developed aviation transportation and rich water, mineral, and tourism resources. The population shows a continuous net inflow, and the urbanization rate has room for further improvement. In 2024, its GDP exceeded 2.30 trillion yuan, ranking third among sub - provincial cities, with a growth rate of 5.7%. The tertiary industry contributes significantly to the economy, and the city is focusing on cultivating industrial clusters such as electronic information, equipment manufacturing, and aerospace [5][7][8]. - In the future, under the guidance of national policies, Chengdu will build a new urban development pattern of "One Mountain Connecting Two Wings" and adhere to the "One - Game - of - Chess" concept of Sichuan and Chongqing to enhance its international competitiveness and regional radiation ability [11]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - Chengdu's fiscal strength ranks high among national sub - provincial cities, with strong stability of general public budget revenue and fiscal self - sufficiency. In 2024, the comprehensive fiscal resources declined due to the decrease in government - funded revenue. The government debt level ranked in the upper - middle position among sub - provincial cities in 2024. With large - scale future project investments, the government debt ratio may continue to rise [12][13]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Each District and County in Chengdu 3.2.1 Economic Strength of Each District and County - Chengdu conducts industrial spatial layout according to the principle of "Eastward Expansion, Southward Extension, Westward Control, Northward Reconstruction, and Central Optimization" to achieve industrial differentiation and clustering. The economic scale of Chengdu High - tech Zone is far ahead, and the economic scale and urbanization rate of other districts and counties decrease layer by layer from the inner - circle to the outer - circle areas. The main urban area has obvious advantages in per - capita GDP and urbanization rate, and the far - suburban areas are relatively weak [16][22]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Each District and County - Fiscal Revenue: The fiscal strength of Chengdu High - tech Zone is the strongest, and the fiscal strength of other districts and counties decreases from the main urban area to the outside. The general public budget revenue of Chengdu High - tech Zone, Chengdu Tianfu New Area, and the main urban area is relatively stable, while the comprehensive fiscal resources of the far - suburban areas rely more on superior subsidies. In 2024, the comprehensive fiscal resources of most far - suburban areas increased due to the growth of superior subsidies, while those of other areas declined to varying degrees due to the decrease in government - funded revenue [25][29]. - Debt Situation: The government debt level in the main urban area is much lower than that in other districts and counties. The government debt distribution is related to the industrial layout and development principle. In 2024, the government debt scale of each district and county generally increased. The main urban area had a significant increase in government debt mainly due to the large - scale issuance of refinancing special bonds. The city is strengthening debt management and promoting debt resolution and replacement [32][34]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability of Chengdu's城投 Enterprises 3.3.1 Overview of Chengdu's城投 Enterprises - As of the end of October 2025, there were 106城投 enterprises with outstanding bonds in Chengdu, a decrease of 5 compared with the previous year. Among them, there are 9 municipal - level, 3 park - level, and 94 district - and - county - level城投 enterprises. In terms of grade distribution, there are 10 AAA - rated, 34 AA + - rated, and 57 AA - rated enterprises. Jin tang County has the most bond - issuing城投 enterprises [36]. 3.3.2 Bond Issuance of城投 Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bonds issued by Chengdu's城投 enterprises decreased compared with the previous year. In 2025, from January to October, the bond issuance scale continued to decline, with a year - on - year decrease of about 28%. Most of the bond financing is used for debt rollover, and the overall bond financing shows a net outflow [39][40]. 3.3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability Analysis of Chengdu's城投 Enterprises - The financing structure of Chengdu's城投 enterprises is mainly bank loans and bond financing. Some district - and - county - level城投 enterprises have heavy debt burdens. In the next two years, the bond maturity scale of some districts and counties is relatively large, and the short - term debt - repayment ability of some areas is weak. The refinancing ability of the main urban area and near - suburban areas is significantly stronger than that of the far - suburban areas [45][49][51]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue of Each District and County in Chengdu for the Debt of Bond - Issuing城投 Enterprises - Overall, the debt scale of Chengdu's城投 enterprises is large, and the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing城投 enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive fiscal resources in most districts and counties exceeds 500% [53].