Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the diversified industrial investment holding industry [2]. Core Insights - The diversified industrial investment holding industry is characterized by a business model that involves holding and managing subsidiaries across multiple sectors, allowing for risk diversification and value enhancement [4][5]. - The industry is influenced by various policies, including antitrust regulations, ESG standards, and state-owned enterprise market value management, which significantly impact corporate strategies [2][14]. - The industry is expected to experience a phase of integration and optimization by 2025, with market competition intensifying and a focus on compliance and sustainable development [27][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Diversified industrial investment holding companies manage subsidiaries across various sectors, promoting sustainable development through strategic investments [4]. - The business model focuses on investment management rather than direct operational involvement, with revenue primarily from dividends, asset operations, and management fees [5]. Industry Scale and Structure - The industry features a large number of companies, with leading firms holding assets exceeding 100 billion [6]. - The structure is dominated by a few large groups, while smaller firms struggle to maintain market share [6][7]. - The financial metrics of diversified holding companies are generally below the averages of the broader market, indicating significant internal variance in profitability [7][10]. Financing Preferences and Investment Management - Financing sources for diversified holding companies include bonds, bank loans, and equity injections, with a focus on balancing leverage and financing costs [11]. - Companies adopt different strategies based on their operational focus, with capital operation firms prioritizing asset appreciation and operational firms focusing on synergy and risk diversification [11][12]. Industry Policies and Focus Areas - Recent regulatory developments emphasize compliance with antitrust laws, market access, and ESG standards, necessitating significant legal and financial resources for compliance [13][14][16]. - The government is promoting a dual approach to modernize traditional industries while fostering emerging sectors, which will shape the investment landscape [18][19]. Future Outlook - The industry is poised for consolidation, with larger firms likely to acquire smaller ones, while financing conditions may stabilize due to a favorable liquidity environment [27][28]. - Digitalization and industry collaboration are expected to drive efficiency improvements, with local investment platforms playing a crucial role in regional economic development [28].

2025 年工程机械行业分析 联合资信 工商评级三部 |王煜彤 在 2023 年中国工程机械行业下行的背景下，2024 年工程机械行业筑 底企稳，工程机械企业盈利水平有所提升。各类挖掘机和装载机产品销量 均呈增长态势；工程机械产品出口金额保持增长但增速放缓，其中"一带 一路"沿线国家出口景气度维持较高水平，同时新增对外承包工程将有效 拉动工程机械产品出口。2024 年，我国工程机械企业盈利水平有所提升。 未来，海外市场将继续成为国内工程机械企业的重要支撑。 2024 年以来，工程机械行业向数字化、智能化、绿色化加速转型。随 着国家大规模设备更新、超长期特别国债等举措加快落地，相关产业政策 的有效实施，重大工程项目建设全力推进，工程机械行业有望进入复苏阶 段，加之市场上存量机械自然更新淘汰、环保政策趋严、机械取代人工趋 势加深以及出口"情绪"高涨等众多因素的影响下，中国工程机械刚性需 求将持续释放。总体看，预计工程机械行业在 2025 年将整体维持稳定发 展态势。 一、行业现状 2024 年全年国民经济运行稳中有进，房地产开发投资依然不振，但受益于固定 资产投资（不含农户）同比增长，各类挖掘机和装载机产品销量均 ...

2025 年股权投资行业运行分析 联合资信 工商评级二部 受复杂的外部环境影响，2024 年中国股权投资市场整体延续下行态势，但 各项运营指标降幅同比有所收窄。募资端国资 LP 仍是最主要出资方，投 资端在调整中呈现出结构优化的趋势，资金与资源进一步向优质项目倾斜， 半导体及电子设备领域投资热度依旧领先，人工智能领域受资本青睐。受 IPO 节奏仍未放松影响，处于延长期的基金规模持续增长，短期内仍面临 较大的退出压力。受地方财政压力和监管趋严影响，2024 年中国政府引导 基金设立节奏放缓。随着各项政策的积极推动，预计 2025 年行业各项运 营指标降幅将进一步收窄。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 出资人结构方面，国资 LP 仍是人民币基金的最主要出资方。根据执中 ZERONE 数据，国资性质资金在 LP 结构中占据主导地位，占比约 88.8%，其中政府资金（含 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 图表 1 股权投资行业募资情况 一、股权投资市场运行概况 （一）募资端 2024 年中国股权投资市场募资难度进一步加剧，新募基金数量和规模同比显著 下滑，国资 LP 仍是基金最主要出 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the retail industry, with expectations of continued pressure on physical retail operations and a focus on online retail as the main growth driver [2][36]. Core Insights - In 2024, the retail market is expected to face challenges due to a slowdown in consumption growth, increased savings willingness, and external macroeconomic impacts, leading to insufficient consumer demand and a need for improved consumer confidence [2][4]. - Online retail remains the primary driver of consumption growth, although its growth rate has slowed. The report anticipates that companies with strategies closely aligned with consumer needs and efficient multi-channel service capabilities will achieve structural growth [2][36]. - The government is expected to continue and possibly increase policy support for the consumption sector in 2025, but the effectiveness of these policies will depend on improvements in consumer spending capacity and willingness [2][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2024, consumer spending is crucial for GDP growth, but the growth rate is slowing, particularly in the department store sector, which faces significant operational pressure [4][5]. - The retail industry is a vital part of the modern commercial circulation system, contributing significantly to economic circulation and employment [4]. Retail Performance - In 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.5%, a noticeable slowdown compared to the previous year. Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.5%, contributing significantly to overall retail growth [5][25]. - The performance of various retail formats showed mixed results, with convenience stores and specialty stores experiencing growth, while department stores and brand specialty stores faced declines [5][19]. Subsector Analysis 1. **Department Stores** - The department store sector has seen a decline in retail sales, with a 5.0% drop in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the previous year. The sector is under significant operational pressure, with many stores closing [13][15]. - The overall performance of department stores is at a low point, with revenue and profit indices at their lowest in nearly a decade [15]. 2. **Supermarkets** - Supermarkets showed some resilience, with a 2.7% growth in 2024, but the overall recovery trend remains unclear. Many supermarkets reported increased sales without corresponding profit growth [19][20]. - The number of supermarket stores is decreasing, with more closures than openings, indicating a challenging competitive environment [20]. 3. **Online Retail** - Online retail continues to be a significant growth driver, with a 6.5% increase in sales in 2024, outpacing overall retail growth. The top 100 online retail companies generated a total sales volume of 1.91 trillion yuan [25][26]. - Innovations such as live streaming and instant retail are key factors driving online consumption growth [26]. Industry Policies and Focus - The government has implemented various policies to stimulate consumption, including the "old for new" policy for consumer goods, which is expected to support market growth [28]. - The retail industry has seen increased capital activity, with several mergers and acquisitions aimed at optimizing asset structures and expanding market presence [32][34].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the issuance of Sci-tech bonds by urban investment companies, suggesting that the marketization transformation of these companies will accelerate [3][15]. Core Insights - Sci-tech bonds are essential financial instruments aimed at promoting technological innovation and industrial transformation, with urban investment companies increasingly participating in their issuance since the pilot program began in March 2021 [3][5]. - The issuance of Sci-tech bonds by urban investment companies has been growing annually, with a notable increase in the number of bonds issued and the total amount raised [15][16]. - The report highlights that urban investment companies are transitioning towards market-oriented operations, utilizing equity investments and industrial funds as part of their transformation strategy [3][15]. Policy Evolution - The report outlines the evolution of policies related to the issuance of Sci-tech bonds, starting from the pilot program in March 2021 to the formal launch in May 2022, and subsequent revisions in October 2023 and December 2024 [5][6]. - Key policies have been established by exchanges and regulatory bodies to guide the issuance of Sci-tech bonds, emphasizing the need for issuers to demonstrate significant technological innovation attributes or direct the raised funds towards technology-related fields [4][8]. Issuance Requirements - The report details the requirements for issuing Sci-tech bonds, which vary between exchanges and the interbank market, focusing on the issuer's creditworthiness and the intended use of raised funds [9][13]. - For exchange-listed bonds, issuers must generally maintain a debt-to-asset ratio below 80% and ensure that at least 70% of the raised funds are directed towards technology innovation [9][10]. Urban Investment Companies' Issuance Status - Since the launch of Sci-tech bonds, urban investment companies have issued a total of 117 bonds amounting to approximately 93.05 billion yuan, with a steady increase in issuance scale observed from 2021 to 2025 [16][22]. - The report notes that urban investment companies primarily issue medium to long-term bonds, with a significant portion of issuers located in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Chongqing, and Sichuan [17][22]. Characteristics of Issuers - The report categorizes urban investment companies into Sci-tech and non-Sci-tech issuers, with the majority being non-Sci-tech, relying on the allocation of funds towards technology innovation to meet issuance requirements [26][31]. - Among the successful issuers, a small percentage are recognized as Sci-tech issuers, primarily due to their substantial R&D investments, while most non-Sci-tech issuers focus on equity and fund investments [28][31]. Financial and Business Features - The financial characteristics of urban investment companies indicate a diversified income structure, with many companies generating significant revenue from market-oriented activities rather than traditional urban investment operations [34][39]. - The report emphasizes the increasing contribution of investment income to overall profits, highlighting a trend towards greater marketization and diversification within the sector [39][48].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weak supply and demand situation in the steel industry, with expectations of continued operational pressure for steel enterprises in the short term and a shift towards high-quality development in the long term [2][28]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry in China is experiencing a slight decline in crude steel production, with 2024 projections showing a production of 1,005 million tons, down from 1,019 million tons in 2023 [4][9]. - The overall profitability of the steel industry is declining due to excess supply and weak downstream demand, particularly from the real estate sector, which has seen a significant drop in investment [4][20]. - The report anticipates that steel prices will maintain a volatile trend in 2025, with no significant improvement in the operational efficiency of steel enterprises [28][29]. Industry Operation Status - The steel industry is currently in a phase of exploration, with supply exceeding demand and product prices declining [4]. - Crude steel production from 2022 to 2024 is projected to be 1,013 million tons, 1,019 million tons, and 1,005 million tons respectively, indicating a downward trend [4]. - The first three quarters of 2024 saw a decline in steel prices, but a rebound occurred in late September due to favorable monetary policies [7][9]. Upstream and Downstream Situation - The real estate sector continues to decline, impacting steel demand, while manufacturing and infrastructure investments provide some support [10][20]. - The report highlights that iron ore imports are expected to rise from 1,107 million tons in 2022 to 1,237 million tons in 2024, with a high dependency on imports [11]. - The focus on high-quality steel products is increasing, with manufacturing steel consumption rising from 42% in 2020 to 50% in 2024 [21]. Industry Policies and Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing crude steel production capacity to alleviate supply-demand imbalances and improve profitability [22]. - Policies are being implemented to accelerate the digital transformation and upgrade of the steel industry, focusing on energy conservation and emission reduction [24][25]. - The report notes that while steel exports have increased, trade barriers and tariffs are intensifying competition in the domestic market [26][27]. Industry Outlook - The steel industry is expected to continue facing supply and demand weaknesses in 2025, with a slight decrease in demand anticipated [28]. - The report suggests that while short-term pressures will persist, long-term improvements are expected as inefficient capacities are phased out [29].

2024 年以来全社会用电量同比增长，电源、电网持续保持较大的投 资规模，随着电力行业加快新型能源体系和新型电力系统构建，新能源新 增装机成为绝对主体，重点输电通道建设稳步推进，产业链带动效果显 著。特高压、清洁能源大基地建设以及省间互联通道开展规划和建设需求 仍将持续，智能变配电将迎来新机遇。同时，上下游产业链完善度逐步提 升，供给与需求体量逐渐增大，与当前国际能源局势、国家能源战略具有 密不可分的关系，特朗普再次当选或将推动国家能源战略加速发展。预计 2025 年电力、电气设备制造行业景气度仍将持续，展望为稳定。 · 2025 年电力、电气设备制造行业分析 联合资信 工商评级三部 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、行业运行情况回顾 电力、电气设备制造行业作为国民经济发展中重要的装备工业之一，2023 年以 来，全社会用电量稳步提升，电力行业加快新型能源体系和新型电力系统构建；电源、 电网持续保持较大的投资规模，投资增速创新高，新能源新增装机成为绝对主体，重 点输电通道建设稳步推进，电力设备制造行业外部发展环境良好。 电力、电气设备制造行业作为国民经济发展中重要的装备工业之一，行业景气度 ...

2025 年有色金属行业分析 联合资信 | 工商评级三部 2024 年以来，避险需求增加带动黄金价格持续上涨，传统工业金属铜、铝、锌价中枢明显上移，但受供需失衡等因素影 响，新能源类金属价格承压。中国有色金属产业整体呈现稳中向好态势，产业景气综合指数呈上升态势。具体来看： （1）铜：新能源产业强劲需求对国际铜价形成一定支撑；但我国高度依赖进口资源的情况无法改善。铜价整体波动很大， 2024 年以来受供应紧张影响震荡上行，加工费暴跌至负值，铜冶炼企业经营压力明显加大。 （2）铝：中国铝土矿对外依存度高，2024 年铝消费市场呈现显著的结构性分化特征，中国氧化铝价格在铝土矿供应短缺 和下游电解铝需求旺盛双重因素推动下大幅上涨；LME 铝价受宏观经济政策、国际贸易环境等因素影响波动幅度较大。 （3）铅：中国为全球最大的铅精矿和再生铅生产国，2024 年全球铅市场呈现供需紧平衡局面，LME 铅价于二季度冲高 后回落。 （4）锌：2024 年以来，全球锌矿产量延续下降趋势，但受益于下游新能源需求增加以及经济政策刺激投资需求回升使得 锌市场呈现供不应求局面，LME 锌价中枢明显上移。 www.lhratings.com ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the guarantee industry [2] Core Insights - The guarantee industry in China has entered a business adjustment period since 2022, with a decrease in the scale of financial product guarantee business and high credit risk levels [4][5] - The financial guarantee institutions are categorized into national guarantee companies, credit enhancement companies, provincial guarantee companies, and municipal guarantee companies, each with different operational areas and business types [4] - The market share of the top ten financial guarantee institutions was 60.18% at the end of 2024, a decrease of 3.19 percentage points from the end of 2023, indicating a high industry concentration [5] - The credit ratings of guaranteed financial products are primarily concentrated in the AA category, accounting for 71.41%, with a slight decline from the previous year [5] - The report highlights the importance of re-guarantee companies in risk dispersion and transfer within the guarantee system, suggesting that government-led establishment of re-guarantee companies is an effective solution [6] Industry Overview - The financial guarantee business has shown a trend of stabilization followed by decline, with the total guarantee balance projected to decrease from 9,642.07 billion yuan in 2022 to 8,355.71 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [5] - The report notes that the government has been increasingly supportive of small and micro enterprises, agriculture, and technology innovation through various policies [7][8] - The establishment of a multi-level government financing guarantee system is underway, which includes national, provincial, and municipal levels to address financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises [12] Future Trends - The national government financing guarantee system is expected to continue improving, with stronger credit competitive advantages for provincial guarantee institutions in economically robust regions [12] - The report anticipates that the guarantee industry will face pressure on business growth due to a shrinking market capacity and increasing competition among market participants [14] - There is a trend towards enhancing risk control capabilities, especially for local guarantee institutions, which can leverage their understanding of regional enterprises [16]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a balanced investment outlook for the power industry in 2025, with a focus on ensuring stable supply and promoting clean energy investments [3][31]. Core Insights - The power supply in China is expected to remain generally balanced in 2024, but localized shortages may occur during peak demand periods due to extreme weather and fuel shortages [3][31]. - Clean energy investments are rapidly increasing, with installed capacity of clean energy surpassing that of thermal power for the first time by the end of 2024 [5][8]. - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation in ensuring safe and stable power supply, establishing a market-oriented pricing system, and accelerating the construction of a new power system [31][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Thermal power remains the primary source of electricity in China, but clean energy investments are growing rapidly, particularly in wind and solar power [5][8]. - In 2024, China's power grid construction investment reached 608.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [5]. - The total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.35 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024, with non-fossil energy accounting for 58.2% of the total [8][10]. 2. Power Generation and Demand - Total electricity consumption in China reached 9.85 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [10]. - The utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased to 3,442 hours, with coal power still accounting for over 60% of total generation [10][12]. - The report notes that the marketization of electricity trading is progressing, with 63% of total electricity consumption coming from market transactions [10]. 3. Nuclear Power Overview - China's nuclear power capacity reached 59.43 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, with a utilization rate of 7,805 hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase [13][16]. - The report emphasizes the stability and efficiency of nuclear power operations, with new projects contributing to capacity growth [13][16]. 4. Hydropower Overview - Hydropower remains a major renewable energy source in China, with installed capacity reaching 436 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [20]. - The report indicates that hydropower generation efficiency is influenced by water availability, with a significant increase in generation due to improved water conditions [20]. 5. Industry Focus and Policy Adjustments - The report discusses the volatility of coal prices and the government's measures to stabilize the market, including enhancing coal supply capabilities [21][23]. - It highlights the need for market-oriented reforms in renewable energy pricing to promote high-quality development in the sector [24][25]. - The establishment of new energy storage systems and virtual power plants is emphasized as crucial for supporting the new power system [26][29]. 6. Industry Outlook - The power supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight in 2025, particularly during peak periods, with continued growth in installed capacity [31][32]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will stabilize, but thermal power companies will still face cost pressures [31][32].