美东时间 2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓"对等关税" 的行政令，对中国实施 34%"对等关税"，4 月 4 日，国务院关税税则委员会宣布自 4 月 10 日起对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 34%关税。4 月 8 日（当地时间），美国总统特 朗普宣布对中国输美商品加征关税税率由 34%提至 84%，4 月 9 日，国务院关税税则委 员会于宣布自 4 月 10 日 12 时 01 分起对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 84%关税。4 月 9 日（当地时间）美国总统特朗普再次宣布将对华关税提至 125%。 "对等关税"对中国化工行业进出口的影响 联合资信 工商评级三部 毛文娟 进口方面，"对等关税"对于原油和天然气供应影响有限，关注企业库存收益情况。 部分大宗商品原料（乙烷和丙烷）对美依赖度较高，需关注"对等关税"对采用乙烷裂解 和丙烷裂解工艺化工企业的不利影响。此外，中国在部分精细化工和特种化工品领域对 外依赖度高，需关注以进口美国高端化学品作为原材料的化工企业的原材料供应稳定性 和成本控制。 出口方面，部分美国对中国依赖度较高产品得到了对等关税豁免，"对等关税"对于 中国化工 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the engineering machinery industry Core Viewpoints - The "reciprocal tariff" policy by the Trump administration is expected to benefit US domestic engineering machinery companies while intensifying global competition in the industry. Chinese engineering machinery companies have limited exposure to the US market, making the overall risk manageable. The industry faces both short-term pressures and long-term opportunities as it shifts towards high-end and globalized operations, supported by domestic demand stimulation and the "Belt and Road" initiative [1][5][8] Summary by Sections Impact of Tariffs - The "reciprocal tariff" policy includes a minimum baseline tariff of 10% on all goods exported to the US, effective April 5, 2025, with additional tariffs for countries with significant trade deficits or deemed to engage in "unfair trade" [3][4] Export Trends - Chinese engineering machinery exports have been growing, particularly to countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, with exports to these regions reaching $21.055 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, accounting for 47.2% of total exports. The share of exports to the US has decreased, currently representing about 7%-8% of total exports, with major companies like SANY, Zoomlion, and XCMG having less than 5% exposure to the US market [5][8] Competitive Landscape - US brands such as Caterpillar and John Deere hold a combined market share of 52% in the US market, and the high tariffs are likely to strengthen their market position. European and Japanese companies are also facing similar tariff pressures, which may heighten competition in other global markets [7][8] Strategic Responses - Major Chinese engineering machinery companies are expanding their overseas production capabilities and entering emerging markets to mitigate risks. For instance, SANY has established a factory in North America, while Zoomlion and Hengli Hydraulic have set up operations in Mexico and Brazil to cater to local demand [7][8] Future Outlook - While short-term challenges exist due to increased tariffs leading to a decline in exports to the US, the long-term outlook is positive as the industry is pushed towards higher-end and globalized operations. The focus of competition is expected to shift towards technological innovation and localized service capabilities rather than merely the gains or losses in a single market [8]

关税政策将对全球汽车行业产生深远影响。虽然中国对美直接出口整车 基数较低，短期内冲击有限，但转口贸易和零部件出口面临较大压力。同时， 该政策迫使全球汽车行业进行供应链重构和产业布局调整。但挑战与机遇并 存，中国汽车行业将加速开拓新兴市场，核心技术突破与国产替代必将加速， 推动本土产业链的建设，增强企业抗风险能力。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 "对等关税"对中国汽车行业影响 联合资信 工商评级三部 苏柏文 美东时间 2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓 "对等关税"的行政令，对中国实施 34%"对等关税"，4 月 4 日，国务院 关税税则委员会宣布自 4 月 10 日起对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 34% 关税。4 月 8 日（当地时间），美国总统特朗普宣布对中国输美商品加征关税 税率由 34%提至 84%，4 月 9 日，国务院关税税则委员会于宣布自 4 月 10 日 12 时 01 分起对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 84%关税。4 月 9 日（当 地时间）美国总统特朗普再次宣布将对华关税提至 125%。 "对等关税"背景 截至当地时间 2025 年 4 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the credit risk level of the factoring industry in China is expected to remain stable by 2025 [5][32]. Core Insights - The regulatory environment is tightening, which is beneficial for the long-term standardized development of the industry. The number of factoring companies is expected to decrease further due to increased regulatory scrutiny [6][32]. - The macroeconomic slowdown and the deceleration of accounts receivable turnover are creating more business opportunities for the factoring industry, which is currently experiencing significant market potential [6][19]. - The profitability of factoring companies may face challenges due to declining interest margins, but rapid growth in business scale could enhance operating income [6][33]. - The application of financial technology is expected to improve efficiency and security in the factoring industry, particularly in areas such as process optimization and risk management [6][33]. - The market share of market-oriented factoring businesses is expected to increase significantly, with a high proportion of existing businesses related to engineering and real estate projects, which poses greater risk control pressure [6][34]. Industry Overview - Factoring, also known as accounts receivable financing, is a financial transaction where a business sells its receivables to a third party (the factor) to improve cash flow and reduce credit risk [7]. - The traditional factoring business in China is primarily conducted by banks, which focus on financing and require strict credit assessments of sellers [8]. - The commercial factoring sector has evolved from rapid growth to a phase of regulatory tightening, with a more complete regulatory framework being established [9][10]. Industry Development and Policies - Since 2012, the commercial factoring industry in China has undergone significant changes, including pilot explorations and subsequent regulatory reforms [9][11]. - The regulatory responsibilities for commercial factoring were transferred from the Ministry of Commerce to the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission in 2018, leading to stricter oversight [11][12]. - The introduction of the "205 Document" in 2019 set forth quantitative regulatory indicators to standardize the operations of commercial factoring companies [12][13]. Industry Performance - The factoring industry has shown a counter-cyclical characteristic, with increasing demand for factoring services due to the growing scale of accounts receivable and extended collection periods [19][20]. - The total accounts receivable of industrial enterprises in China has been growing rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.71% from 2022 to 2024 [20]. - The commercial factoring business volume has increased significantly, with annual volumes reaching over 3 trillion yuan in 2024 [21]. Credit Rating Situation - As of the first quarter of 2025, very few commercial factoring companies have obtained credit ratings, with most rated companies being state-owned enterprises [22]. - The highest-rated companies include Guoxin Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd. and Guoneng (Beijing) Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., both rated AAA [23]. Bond Issuance Situation - As of the end of 2024, only Guoxin Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd. had outstanding credit bonds, with a total issuance scale of 6.5 billion yuan [26]. - The issuance of asset-backed securities (ABS) by commercial factoring companies has decreased due to the downturn in the real estate sector [26][27].

1、延续杠杆倍数指标，细化 ABS 发行准入要求 《小额贷款公司监督管理暂行办法》政策解读 结构二部 张君瑶 孙艺航 一、 引言 为进一步建立健全小额贷款公司行业监管制度体系，国家金融监督管理总局于 2025 年 1 月 发布《小额贷款公司监督管理暂行办法》（以下简称"《暂行办法》"）。相较于中国银保监会办公 厅（以下简称"银保监会"）于 2020 年 9 月发布的《中国银保监会办公厅关于加强小额贷款公司 监督管理的通知》（以下简称"《通知》"），《暂行办法》继续坚持小额分散原则、践行普惠金融理 念，对小额贷款公司的融资途径、信息公开、技术标准以及债务催收手段等提出了全面且系统的 要求，进一步细化了小额贷款行业的运营准则，规范行业健康向上发展，引导小额贷款公司提高 风险管理能力和合规经营水平。 二、《暂行办法》对 ABS 的影响 我们将《暂行办法》同《通知》进行部分内容对比，并重点针对《暂行办法》中对资产证券 化产品未来可能产生影响的规定进行分析。 发行资产证券化产品作为小额贷款公司重要的融资渠道之一，《暂行办法》对小额贷款公司 发行 ABS 所需条件进行进一步完善，提高了小额贷款公司发行 ABS 的准入门槛 ...

商业地产作为经营性物业，其发展主要受到国民经济整体发展速度、城市化水平 以及社会消费能力的影响；同时，由于商业地产的投资属性突出，其发展速度短期内 受社会融资成本和通货膨胀率的影响较大。2024 年，我国国内生产总值同比增长 5.0% （按不变价计算），经济总体运行平稳，但依然面临着国内有效需求不足、企业经营 压力较大的挑战。从商业地产细分行业来看，全年商业营业用房开发投资完成额 6943.97 亿元，同比下降 13.9%；新开工面积 4980.32 万平方米，同比下降 23.30%。 同期，办公楼开发投资完成额 4159.88 亿元，同比下降 9.0%；新开工面积 1892.93 万 平方米，同比下降 27.7%。商业营业用房和办公楼开发投资完成额降幅有所收窄，但 新开工面积降幅均有所扩大，预计未来几年商业地产新增供应量将显著下滑。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 2025 年商业地产行业分析 联合资信 工商评级一部 2024 年商业地产行业在销售端延续去库存态势，新增供应持续缩减， 开发投资低迷。租赁方面，一线城市零售物业出租率有一定企稳改善迹象， 但租金水平仍缓步下滑；写字楼出租率和租 ...

科创企业具有高科技、高成长、市场前景广阔等特征，是我国新质生产力重要组 成部分，但由于其高风险性、轻资产、融资渠道有限等因素，致使其融资较为困难。 2025 年《政府工作报告》提出"推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展"，加快多层次债 券市场发展。3 月 6 日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主 题记者会上表示，科技创新活动复杂多元，处于不同生命周期的企业的风险特征和金 融需求有很大差异，金融供给的适配性要进一步提升。人民银行将会同证监会、科技 部等部门创新推出债券市场的科技板，支持金融机构、科技型企业、私募股权投资机 构等三类主体，发行科技创新债券，丰富科技创新债券的产品体系。国家发改委主任 郑栅洁表示，持续加大科技创新投入力度。国资委将组建国家创业投资引导基金，带 动地方资金、社会资本合计近 1 万亿元，聚焦硬科技、坚持长周期、提高容错率，通 过市场化方式投向科技型企业；同时，完善并购重组、份额转让等政策，鼓励发展并 购基金等，畅通创业投资退出渠道，更大力度吸引社会资本参与创业投资。中国证监 会主席吴清表示，资本市场支持科技企业不只有上市一条路也不只有股票一种工具， 债券、可转债、优先股、资 ...

支持创新药发展，注重药品集采质量， 鼓励中医药发展——2025 年政府工作 报告医药行业相关内容解读 联合资信 工商评级 |蒲雅修 |邢霂雪 |丁媛香 医药行业对政策敏感性较高，从 2025 年政府工作报告来看，全链条支持创新 药发展，创新药发展的重要性凸显：明确提出优化药品集采政策，强化质量评估和 监管，有利于促进药品集采的良性发展；扩大医保共济范围，提升医保支付能力； 继续鼓励中医药发展，为中医药企业提供良好的外部发展环境。得益于政策导向， 创新药企业的研发投入回报期有望缩短，仿制药生产企业将在需求和质量中寻求平 衡，进而获得合理的利润空间，医药行业内部竞争格局有望持续改善。未来，人口 老龄化现象逐步显现，医保支付范围及能力不断提升，医药行业下游需求将保持增 长，均为医药行业的稳健发展提供有力支撑。 二、药品集采更关注质量 2025 年《政府工作报告》提出"优化药品集采政策，强化质量评估和监管，让人 民群众用药更放心"，明确要求强化集采药品的质量评估和监管，有利于促进集采药 品的"保质降价"。本次《政府工作报告》也是首次将"推行集采"转变为"优化集 采"，这也意味着未来在药品集采方面，仿制药的产品质量将得 ...

广东省首批土地收储点评 联合资信 公用评级四部 | 李坤 | 朱玉洁 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 0 引言 伴随房地产行业深度调整，地方政府土地出让收入持续下滑，地方财政承压明 显。2024 年以来，中央政府出台了一系列政策，旨在盘活闲置存量土地，促进房 地产市场止跌回稳，同时通过盘活存量资产化解地方债务风险。2025 年 1 月以来， 广东省多个城市公示了 2025 年广东省第一批土地储备领域申报地方政府专项债的 项目情况，其收储土地的特点、对地方政府以及城投企业的影响值得关注。 一、政策背景 土地出让收入是地方政府财政收入的重要组成部分，在促进城市建设、完善基 础设施等方面发挥了重要作用。随着"三道红线"、贷款集中度管理、预售资金监 管加强和限购限贷限价等房地产行业收紧政策的密集出台，房地产行业自 2021 年 起步入下行通道，房地产企业资金紧张、拿地意愿偏弱，土地市场持续低迷，中国 房地产投资规模以及地方土地出让收入均呈现明显的下滑趋势，地方财政压力显 著增加。土地出让收入是城投企业业务回款的重要来源，其规模下降影响地方政府 对城投企业的业务回款、资金支持等多个方面，虽然一揽子化债方案 ...