Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Gansu Province has significant regional advantages and rich resources, with stable economic growth in 2024, but its economic aggregate and per capita GDP are still at the lower level in the country. The provincial government's debt scale is growing, but the debt ratio is at the middle level in the country due to the support of superior subsidy income. As one of the 12 key provinces for debt resolution, it continues to receive central debt - resolution policy support. The number of financing platforms has decreased significantly, and future work on platform clearance and transformation and upgrading will continue. - The economic and fiscal strengths of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Gansu are significantly differentiated. Lanzhou, the provincial capital, leads in economic development and fiscal strength. By the end of 2024, the government debt balances of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased, and most of their debt ratios and debt - to - GDP ratios rose. - The number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Gansu is small, mainly at the prefecture - level. In 2024, the net financing of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises was positive, and the regional financing environment improved. Since 2025, the short - term debt repayment pressure has increased. As of the end of 2024, the short - term debt repayment indicators of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises continued to weaken, and most of them still face great short - term debt repayment pressure. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Gansu Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength (1) Regional Characteristics and Economic Development of Gansu Province - Gansu has significant regional advantages, rich in land, mineral, medicinal, and cultural and tourism resources, with relatively developed land and air transportation. During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the planned transportation fixed - asset investment scale (excluding railways) is about 500 billion yuan. As of the end of 2024, the total highway mileage reached 159,300 kilometers, and the railway operating mileage was 5,960 kilometers. [5][6] - The province's population is multi - ethnic, and the urbanization rate is lower than the national average. As of the end of 2024, the permanent population was 24.5834 million, and the urbanization rate was 56.83%. [7] - In 2024, Gansu's GDP was 1,300.29 billion yuan, ranking 27th in the country, with a growth rate of 5.8%. The per capita GDP was 58,300 yuan, ranking 31st. From January to June 2025, the GDP was 646.88 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.3%, 1.0 percentage point higher than the national average. [8] - The industrial structure is relatively stable, with the tertiary industry as the main driving force for economic growth. The cultural and tourism industry has achieved "dual improvement in quantity and quality". In 2024, the tertiary industry added value was 694.48 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The province received 451 million domestic tourists, with domestic tourism revenue of 345.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.2% and 25.8% respectively. [11] - National strategies and policies, such as the Western Development Strategy, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Yellow River Basin Ecological Protection and High - quality Development Strategy, have promoted the economic development of Gansu. The province also actively undertakes industrial transfer from the east - central regions, and Lanzhou New Area has strong economic growth momentum. [12][13][14] - The central government provides transfer payments and special funds to support Gansu's development. In 2024, the superior subsidy income in the general public budget revenue was 345.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.02%. [15] (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Gansu - In 2024, Gansu's general public budget revenue ranked at the lower level in the country, with relatively weak overall fiscal strength and low fiscal self - sufficiency rate, but the general public budget revenue was relatively stable. The government - funded income decreased year - on - year, and the superior subsidy income contributed significantly to the local comprehensive financial resources. The government's debt - to - GDP ratio ranked behind in the country, and the debt ratio was at the middle level in the country. [17] - As one of the 12 key provinces for debt resolution, Gansu continues to receive central debt - resolution policy support. In 2024 and from January to August 2025, it issued special refinancing bonds of 50.6 billion yuan and 44.3 billion yuan respectively. In 2024, it obtained a new government debt quota of 211.5 billion yuan, including a special debt quota of 194.4 billion yuan. [20] II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Gansu (1) Economic Strength of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Gansu - The economic strength of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Gansu is significantly differentiated. Lanzhou, as the provincial capital, has a good industrial foundation and is significantly stronger than other cities. Jinchang and Jiayuguan have high per capita GDP due to rich resources. [21] - Gansu promotes the formation of an urban development pattern of "one belt, one corridor, one core, and two regional centers". Each city develops relevant industries based on its own resource advantages. Lanzhou provides core support for the provincial industrial development. [24] - In 2024, cities with GDP over 100 billion yuan were Lanzhou, Qingyang, and Jiuquan. Lanzhou had the highest GDP, accounting for 28.78% of the province's GDP. Jinchang, Jiuquan, and Jiayuguan had GDP growth rates over 7%. Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture had the lowest growth rate of 3.8%. [29] - Jinchang and Jiayuguan led in per capita GDP, while Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture ranked last. As of the end of 2024, Lanzhou had a concentrated population and a relatively high urbanization rate. Jinchang and Jiayuguan also had urbanization rates over 80%. [30] (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Gansu - **Fiscal Revenue**: In 2024, the fiscal strength of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Gansu continued to be differentiated. Lanzhou's comprehensive fiscal strength was much higher than others, with high tax revenue contribution. Most cities' government - funded income decreased significantly due to the land transfer market. The superior subsidy income was large and contributed highly to the comprehensive financial resources. [31] - **Debt Situation**: By the end of 2024, the government debt balances of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased. Most cities' debt - to - GDP ratios and debt ratios rose. Lanzhou had the highest debt ratio of 234.50%. In 2024, Gansu reduced 94 financing platforms, a year - on - year decrease of 35.9%. The province will continue to resolve debt risks and promote the transformation and upgrading of financing platforms. [38][39][41] III. Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Gansu (1) Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of September 8, 2025, there were 7 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Gansu, mainly at the prefecture - level, and the credit ratings were mainly AA. Since 2024, the credit ratings of these enterprises have not changed, but one enterprise's rating outlook remained negative. [45][46] (2) Bond Issuance of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bonds issued by urban investment enterprises in Gansu increased significantly, mainly concentrated in Lanzhou and Pingliang. The net financing was positive, and the regional financing environment improved. Since 2025, the short - term debt repayment pressure has increased. [47] (3) Debt Repayment Ability Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the total debt balance of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Gansu was 129.023 billion yuan, with high regional concentration. Most enterprises still faced great short - term debt repayment pressure, and the short - term debt repayment indicators continued to weaken. The provincial and Lanzhou - level enterprises had a significant increase in net cash inflow from financing activities. [50] (4) Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for the Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive financial resources" in bond - issuing prefecture - level cities in Gansu was between 100% and 350%, with Lanzhou having the highest ratio of 316.26%, indicating weak support and guarantee ability. [58]

短期拨款提案参议院受阻，美国"政 府关门"风险再起 联合资信 主权部 | 程泽宇 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 政治两极化发展和利益博弈致使美国重大公共政策制定陷入僵局，美国历史上曾 多次面临"政府关门""财政悬崖"以及债务违约的风险 美国两党因医疗保健支出分歧较大而导致短期拨款提案未能获得参议院通过，美 国政府运转的资金大概率将会在 9 月末耗尽，如果届时两党之间未能就短期拨款 提案达成一致，美国"政府关门"风险将大幅走高 美国两党依旧在为避免"政府关门"而努力，但如果发生政府停摆，将会在短期内 冲击联邦政府机构的运行，导致政府功能受限和资本市场震荡；本次短期支出提案 是否通过并不会影响政府债务的发行和偿付，发生政府债务违约的风险很低 须延长补贴则应附加更严格的收入限制与防欺诈机制。考虑到美国参、众两议院将进 入为期一周的休会，而目前维持美国政府运转的资金大概率将会在 9 月末耗尽，如果 届时两党之间未能就短期拨款提案达成一致，美国"政府关门"风险将大幅走高。 美国两党依旧在为避免"政府关门"努力，但如果发生政府停摆，将会在短期内 冲击联邦政府机构的运行，导致政府功能受限和资本市场震荡； ...

在防风化债的大背景下，城投企业债务风险备受关注。票据作为一种常见的支付 和融资工具，其逾期信息是企业信用风险的重要信号，是企业信誉的重要表现。本文 从主体数量、信用等级、行政层级、地域分布及存续债券特征等维度对 2025 年 1－7 月发债城投企业票据持续逾期1情况进行梳理，为城投行业债务风险动态研判提供一 定的数据支撑与决策参考。 一、城投企业票据逾期概况 2025 年 1－7 月发债城投票据逾期情况梳理 联合资信 公用评级二部 |宋金玲 |邢小帆 2025 年 1－7 月，发债城投企业票据持续逾期主体数量与逾期频次同比双 增；AA 级、区县级平台仍是逾期主要群体，行政层级与信用等级的风险 分化效应进一步强化；风险主要集中于山东、云南、河南、贵州等省份； 存在票据持续逾期的发债城投企业短期集中偿债压力较大；需关注信用风 险传导带来的交叉违约风险。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 （一）票据持续逾期发债城投主体数量变化情况 2025 年 1－7 月，发生票据持续逾期的发债城投企业数量同比有所增长，一定程 度上体现出在企业流动性压力加大的情况下票据兑付优先级较低的特点。 2025 年 1－7 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve is likely to restart the interest rate cut channel in September due to signs of economic recession and a weakening job market, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, the highest since October 2011[1] - The August CPI increased by only 0.2 percentage points to 2.9%, indicating inflation remains within controllable limits, supporting the case for a rate cut[1] - The Fed's prolonged high interest rates have created a squeeze effect on corporate operations and consumer spending, necessitating a policy adjustment[1] Group 2: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump has consistently pressured the Fed to lower interest rates significantly, aiming for a 50 basis point cut instead of the anticipated 25 basis points[2] - The U.S. government debt is projected to reach $37.5 trillion by 2025, approximately 125% of GDP, creating historical debt servicing pressures[3] - Interest payments on government debt are expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2024, constituting 3.7% of GDP, with projections of surpassing 4.0% by 2025 if high rates persist[3] Group 3: Rising Long-term Bond Yields - As of early September 2025, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5%, while Germany, the UK, and France saw their long-term bond yields rise to 3.4%, 5.6%, and 4.498% respectively, marking new highs since the Eurozone crisis[4] - The increase in long-term bond yields is driven by concerns over debt sustainability, political instability, inflation expectations, and technical adjustments in bond supply and demand[4][5] Group 4: Debt Sustainability Concerns - The rise in long-term bond yields reflects deep-seated worries about the sustainability of government debt in the U.S. and Europe, exacerbated by recent global economic uncertainties[7] - Fiscal expansion policies are crucial for economic growth, but persistent high deficits and rising debt pressures challenge the sustainability of government finances[7] - The market is demanding higher risk premiums for long-term government bonds, indicating a shift from "central bank beta" to "fiscal beta" in asset pricing[7]

Policy and Market Overview - In 2025, the issuance of CMBS/CMBN and REITs is driven by the need to revitalize existing assets and reduce liabilities, supported by policies promoting a multi-tiered REITs market[4] - The issuance market remains robust with a total of 76 transactions from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.71%[7] - The total issuance scale reached 1026.75 billion CNY, up 21.36% year-on-year, indicating strong financing demand[7] Issuance and Performance Metrics - The proportion of CMBS/CMBN and REITs in the ABS market was 8.95%, showing a slight year-on-year decline[7] - The average issuance rates for AAAsf and AA+sf rated securities were 2.44% and 2.66%, respectively, down 36bps and 95bps from the previous year[19] - The average issuance rate for AAAsf rated REITs was 2.40%, slightly lower than the 2.48% for CMBS/CMBN, maintaining a consistent spread of 8bps compared to the previous year[20] Asset and Investor Insights - Local state-owned enterprises accounted for nearly half of the actual issuers, with city investment enterprises primarily issuing CMBS/CMBN products[23] - The diversity of underlying assets has increased, with significant contributions from shopping malls, parks, and energy assets, each accounting for over 15% of issuance[17] - The number of projects with specific identifiers increased significantly, with 22 projects identified, including 11 related to green initiatives[9] Future Outlook - The low interest rate environment is expected to persist, with a continued trend of narrowing spreads anticipated in the second half of 2025[34] - The market for holding-type real estate ABS is expected to expand, with nearly 20 projects currently in the review stage for issuance[35] - The competition in the office and industrial park sectors is intensifying, with high vacancy rates projected to continue due to limited demand[36]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the automotive finance industry, with a focus on the growth potential in the new energy vehicle and used car markets [15]. Core Insights - The number of licensed automotive finance companies in China remains stable, with a total of 25 approved companies, primarily manufacturer-affiliated [4]. - Retail loans constitute the majority of the business for automotive finance companies, accounting for 89.97% of total credit by the end of 2024 [4]. - The revised "Automotive Finance Company Management Measures" aims to enhance risk management and operational standards within the industry [5][6]. - The automotive finance sector is experiencing increased competition from commercial banks, leading to a decline in overall asset scale [7]. - The average non-performing loan (NPL) rate for automotive finance companies was 0.65% at the end of 2024, which is still lower than the banking sector average [9]. - The financing structure of automotive finance companies is under pressure due to mismatched loan and borrowing terms, necessitating improvements in liquidity management [10]. - The automotive finance companies are expanding into asset-backed securities and financial bonds to diversify funding sources [10]. - The growth of new energy vehicles and used car financing presents new opportunities for automotive finance companies [14][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The automotive finance industry is regulated, with a focus on standardization and compliance, following the implementation of new management and regulatory measures [5][6]. - The automotive market is undergoing structural changes, with a notable increase in new energy vehicle production and sales, which grew by 34.4% and 35.5% respectively in 2024 [7]. Financial Performance - The overall asset scale of automotive finance companies has declined from 9,891.95 billion to 8,551.34 billion from 2022 to 2024 [7]. - The average capital adequacy ratio for the industry was 26.96% at the end of 2024, reflecting a 2.39 percentage point increase from the previous year [13]. Risk Management - Automotive finance companies maintain a good asset quality with a high provision coverage ratio of 450.74% as of 2024 [9]. - The industry is facing challenges from rising competition and market saturation, which is affecting growth rates and profitability [11][15]. Future Outlook - The automotive finance sector is expected to benefit from supportive government policies for new energy vehicles and used cars, which could enhance growth opportunities [14][15].

Market Overview - In the first seven months of 2025, the issuance scale of Auto-ABS decreased to 107.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.06%[4] - A total of 70 Auto-ABS products were issued, with 49 being exchange-traded ABS, accounting for 54.75% of the total issuance[4] - Credit ABS issuance dropped significantly, with 11 products totaling 36.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.03%[4] Issuer Concentration - The number of issuers increased slightly, with 41 issuers in total, including 27 financing leasing companies, which surpassed automotive finance companies in issuance scale[6] - The largest issuer, a Ping An financing leasing company, accounted for 22.12% of the total issuance, while the top five issuers collectively held 75.82% of the market[6] Performance Metrics - As of July 2025, the cumulative default rate for Auto-ABS products was low, with financing leasing companies averaging 2.95% and automotive finance companies at 0.63%[12] - The overall cumulative early repayment rate was 7.05%, with automotive finance companies at 7.39% and financing leasing companies at 6.72%[17] Credit Risk Assessment - The credit risk of Auto-ABS products has been decreasing, supported by initial over-collateralization and dual deleveraging effects during the product's lifespan[22] - The majority of Auto-ABS products maintained stable credit performance, with over 90% of projects showing actual cumulative default rates aligning closely with predicted rates[16] Future Outlook - The Auto-ABS issuance scale is expected to face challenges due to ongoing price wars in the automotive industry and weak consumer demand, although short-term improvements may arise from policy support[21] - Automotive finance companies are diversifying their offerings, including leasing and second-hand vehicle financing, to stimulate demand and expand their asset base[23]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable performance of micro-loan ABS with no downgrades in ratings, and a majority of securities have seen upgrades [2][30][32] Core Insights - The overall issuance scale of micro-loan ABS has slightly decreased, with a total of 126 issuances amounting to 1214.79 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.67% [4][5] - The ABN market has shown significant growth, with a 181.82% increase in the number of issuances and a 96.06% increase in issuance scale, while the credit ABS market has contracted significantly [5][32] - The performance of micro-loan ABS in terms of default rates has remained stable, with most projects meeting expectations and some performing better than predicted [20][22][24] Market Overview - The issuance of micro-loan ABS is primarily driven by trust companies and state-owned commercial banks, with a notable increase in participation from private banks [8][15] - As of July 2025, there are 299 active micro-loan ABS products with a total outstanding scale of 1852.33 billion, representing 5.58% of the total market [16][19] Default Performance - The cumulative default rate for public micro-loan ABS has remained stable, with the highest recorded rate at 2.81%, and most projects showing low default levels [20][22] - The actual performance of micro-loan ABS has generally aligned with expectations, with a median ratio of actual to predicted default rates at 0.81 [24] Circular Purchase Structure - The average circular purchase rate for selected micro-loan ABS products is 86.91%, with internet institutions showing a significantly higher rate of 99.17% [27] - The circular purchase structure effectively addresses maturity mismatches and enhances financing efficiency [27] Future Outlook - The ABN and exchange ABS markets are expected to remain the main varieties for micro-loan ABS issuance, with significant growth potential in the credit ABS market [32] - The overall performance of micro-loan ABS during the holding period is expected to remain consistent, with gradual improvements in risk-bearing capacity for the securities [32]

Issuance and Market Trends - The cumulative issuance scale of NPL products reached CNY 286.51 billion from 2016 to July 2025, with a significant increase in 2025, where 87 NPL products were issued, marking a 45.00% year-on-year growth[4] - The issuance scale for NPL products in the first seven months of 2025 was CNY 39.98 billion, representing a 69.77% increase compared to the previous year[4] - Major state-owned banks, including China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China, accounted for 40.58% of the total issuance in 2025[5] Recovery and Performance - Pure credit NPL products showed reasonable fluctuations in recovery progress, while collateralized NPL products exhibited significant uncertainty in repayment[18] - The average deviation of actual recovery from predicted recovery for pure credit NPL products was -11.24%, with most products falling within a range of -20% to 20%[22] - As of July 31, 2025, 41.54% of the NPL products issued in 2024 had completed repayment of their priority securities, with an average repayment time of approximately 9 months, an increase from 6.6 months in the previous year[25][27] Future Outlook - The NPL product market is expected to continue expanding, driven by the release of asset quality pressure in the banking sector and supportive policies, with a projected 50% increase in registration quotas for credit NPL products in 2025[30][32] - The recovery progress of pure credit NPL products is expected to remain stable, while collateralized NPL products will face ongoing uncertainties due to macroeconomic and judicial factors[33] - The overall repayment situation for priority securities is good, but the repayment speed has slowed compared to previous years, indicating potential future pressure on certain projects[34]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressure[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.9% month-on-month, reaching a three-year high with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%[4] - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, with an average of 35,000 jobs added over the past three months, down from 168,000 per month in 2024[4][5] Group 2: Powell's Key Points - Powell acknowledged the significant slowdown in the labor market, emphasizing that the downward pressure on employment could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates[5] - He highlighted that tariffs have pushed up prices for certain goods, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.9% year-on-year as of July 2025[6] - Powell indicated that the balance of risks is shifting, suggesting that the Fed may prioritize supporting the labor market over solely focusing on inflation control[10] Group 3: Market Reactions - The bond market showed limited movement despite Powell's potential rate cut signals, possibly due to government intervention using tariff revenues to stabilize bond prices[11] - In contrast, the stock market reacted positively, with major indices rising significantly, particularly technology and growth stocks, reflecting investor optimism about liquidity support from the Fed[12] - The divergence in market reactions highlights differing expectations regarding future economic scenarios, with bond investors concerned about long-term inflation risks while stock investors focus on short-term liquidity improvements[16] Group 4: Implications for China - China should maintain ample macro policy space to respond to external shocks, given the rising uncertainty in US economic policies and global financial conditions[19] - Emphasis on expanding domestic demand is crucial for reducing reliance on external markets, which includes income distribution reforms and increased investment in new infrastructure and technology[20] - Strengthening Hong Kong's position as an international financial center can attract global capital and support technology financing, enhancing China's economic resilience[21]