Investment Rating - The report indicates that the credit risk level of the factoring industry in China is expected to remain stable by 2025 [5][32]. Core Insights - The regulatory environment is tightening, which is beneficial for the long-term standardized development of the industry. The number of factoring companies is expected to decrease further due to increased regulatory scrutiny [6][32]. - The macroeconomic slowdown and the deceleration of accounts receivable turnover are creating more business opportunities for the factoring industry, which is currently experiencing significant market potential [6][19]. - The profitability of factoring companies may face challenges due to declining interest margins, but rapid growth in business scale could enhance operating income [6][33]. - The application of financial technology is expected to improve efficiency and security in the factoring industry, particularly in areas such as process optimization and risk management [6][33]. - The market share of market-oriented factoring businesses is expected to increase significantly, with a high proportion of existing businesses related to engineering and real estate projects, which poses greater risk control pressure [6][34]. Industry Overview - Factoring, also known as accounts receivable financing, is a financial transaction where a business sells its receivables to a third party (the factor) to improve cash flow and reduce credit risk [7]. - The traditional factoring business in China is primarily conducted by banks, which focus on financing and require strict credit assessments of sellers [8]. - The commercial factoring sector has evolved from rapid growth to a phase of regulatory tightening, with a more complete regulatory framework being established [9][10]. Industry Development and Policies - Since 2012, the commercial factoring industry in China has undergone significant changes, including pilot explorations and subsequent regulatory reforms [9][11]. - The regulatory responsibilities for commercial factoring were transferred from the Ministry of Commerce to the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission in 2018, leading to stricter oversight [11][12]. - The introduction of the "205 Document" in 2019 set forth quantitative regulatory indicators to standardize the operations of commercial factoring companies [12][13]. Industry Performance - The factoring industry has shown a counter-cyclical characteristic, with increasing demand for factoring services due to the growing scale of accounts receivable and extended collection periods [19][20]. - The total accounts receivable of industrial enterprises in China has been growing rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.71% from 2022 to 2024 [20]. - The commercial factoring business volume has increased significantly, with annual volumes reaching over 3 trillion yuan in 2024 [21]. Credit Rating Situation - As of the first quarter of 2025, very few commercial factoring companies have obtained credit ratings, with most rated companies being state-owned enterprises [22]. - The highest-rated companies include Guoxin Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd. and Guoneng (Beijing) Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., both rated AAA [23]. Bond Issuance Situation - As of the end of 2024, only Guoxin Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd. had outstanding credit bonds, with a total issuance scale of 6.5 billion yuan [26]. - The issuance of asset-backed securities (ABS) by commercial factoring companies has decreased due to the downturn in the real estate sector [26][27].

Core Insights - The "Interim Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Microfinance Companies" aims to enhance the regulatory framework for the microfinance industry, emphasizing risk management and compliance [2][18] - The measures maintain the principle of small and dispersed loans, promoting inclusive finance while setting stricter operational guidelines for microfinance companies [2][18] Group 1: Impact on Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) - The new regulations raise the entry threshold for microfinance companies to issue ABS, requiring approval from provincial financial regulatory bodies and emphasizing good corporate governance and risk management [4][5] - The measures continue to enforce leverage ratios, limiting the amount of funds raised through non-standard financing methods to no more than the company's net assets from the previous year [5][4] Group 2: Business Operations and Regional Restrictions - The measures reinforce the small and dispersed loan principle, specifying that online microfinance loans for consumption and production should not exceed RMB 200,000 and RMB 10 million respectively [6][7] - The geographical expansion of microfinance companies is allowed but remains limited to inter-city operations as defined by provincial financial regulatory bodies, maintaining a regional characteristic [6][7] Group 3: Prohibition of Certain Business Practices - The measures prohibit microfinance companies from engaging in "assisted lending" and set a minimum contribution ratio for joint loans, which may impact the scale and structure of joint loan ABS issuance [9][10] - Microfinance companies must not outsource core functions such as credit assessment and risk control, ensuring that they maintain direct responsibility for these critical areas [10][9] Group 4: Strengthening Compliance and Risk Management - The measures require microfinance companies to implement a standardized asset classification system and risk reserve management, enhancing asset quality management and compliance [13][14] - A clear definition of non-performing loans is established, which will improve cash flow recovery processes and enhance the monitoring of underlying asset quality for ABS [13][14] Group 5: Expanded Business Scope - The measures allow microfinance companies to engage in commercial bill acceptance and discounting, broadening their revenue sources and providing new channels for bill transactions [16][17] - Microfinance companies are prohibited from issuing or selling wealth management products, ensuring a focus on core lending activities [17][16] Group 6: Overall Industry Development - The "Interim Measures" are expected to lead to a more competitive and regulated microfinance market, enhancing the overall development of the industry [18][19] - As a key issuer of ABS, microfinance companies are positioned to maintain a significant role in the ABS market, benefiting from improved regulatory standards and operational practices [18][19]

商业地产作为经营性物业，其发展主要受到国民经济整体发展速度、城市化水平 以及社会消费能力的影响；同时，由于商业地产的投资属性突出，其发展速度短期内 受社会融资成本和通货膨胀率的影响较大。2024 年，我国国内生产总值同比增长 5.0% （按不变价计算），经济总体运行平稳，但依然面临着国内有效需求不足、企业经营 压力较大的挑战。从商业地产细分行业来看，全年商业营业用房开发投资完成额 6943.97 亿元，同比下降 13.9%；新开工面积 4980.32 万平方米，同比下降 23.30%。 同期，办公楼开发投资完成额 4159.88 亿元，同比下降 9.0%；新开工面积 1892.93 万 平方米，同比下降 27.7%。商业营业用房和办公楼开发投资完成额降幅有所收窄，但 新开工面积降幅均有所扩大，预计未来几年商业地产新增供应量将显著下滑。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 2025 年商业地产行业分析 联合资信 工商评级一部 2024 年商业地产行业在销售端延续去库存态势，新增供应持续缩减， 开发投资低迷。租赁方面，一线城市零售物业出租率有一定企稳改善迹象， 但租金水平仍缓步下滑；写字楼出租率和租 ...

科创企业具有高科技、高成长、市场前景广阔等特征，是我国新质生产力重要组 成部分，但由于其高风险性、轻资产、融资渠道有限等因素，致使其融资较为困难。 2025 年《政府工作报告》提出"推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展"，加快多层次债 券市场发展。3 月 6 日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主 题记者会上表示，科技创新活动复杂多元，处于不同生命周期的企业的风险特征和金 融需求有很大差异，金融供给的适配性要进一步提升。人民银行将会同证监会、科技 部等部门创新推出债券市场的科技板，支持金融机构、科技型企业、私募股权投资机 构等三类主体，发行科技创新债券，丰富科技创新债券的产品体系。国家发改委主任 郑栅洁表示，持续加大科技创新投入力度。国资委将组建国家创业投资引导基金，带 动地方资金、社会资本合计近 1 万亿元，聚焦硬科技、坚持长周期、提高容错率，通 过市场化方式投向科技型企业；同时，完善并购重组、份额转让等政策，鼓励发展并 购基金等，畅通创业投资退出渠道，更大力度吸引社会资本参与创业投资。中国证监 会主席吴清表示，资本市场支持科技企业不只有上市一条路也不只有股票一种工具， 债券、可转债、优先股、资 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical industry, particularly for innovative drug development, with a focus on quality and regulatory improvements [1][10]. Core Insights - The government emphasizes the importance of supporting innovative drug development, optimizing drug procurement policies, and enhancing quality assessments and regulations [1][3][10]. - The report highlights the expected improvement in the competitive landscape of the pharmaceutical industry due to policy support, which will shorten the return period on R&D investments for innovative drug companies [1][4][10]. - The increasing aging population and enhanced medical insurance payment capabilities are projected to sustain growth in downstream demand for the pharmaceutical industry [1][10]. Summary by Sections Encouragement of Innovative Drug Development - The 2025 government report reiterates support for innovative drugs, including the establishment of a pricing mechanism and a directory for innovative drugs [3][4]. - Policies introduced in 2024 aim to protect innovative drug companies from early price reductions due to procurement [3][4]. Focus on Quality in Drug Procurement - The report states that drug procurement policies will be optimized to emphasize quality assessments and regulations, transitioning from merely promoting procurement to optimizing it [5][6]. - Historical data shows that the average price reduction in drug procurement has been between 52% and 59%, with the most competitive procurement round in 2024 seeing reductions exceeding 70% [5][7]. Enhancement of Medical Insurance Payment Capabilities - The government plans to increase per capita financial subsidies for medical insurance and improve the overall payment capabilities of the medical insurance fund [7][8]. - The expansion of the medical insurance coverage to include innovative drugs is anticipated as the new drug directory is implemented [7][8]. Encouragement of Traditional Chinese Medicine Development - The report outlines ongoing support for the development of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), including the establishment of innovation centers and the integration of digital technologies [9][10]. - Policies aimed at modernizing and industrializing TCM are expected to enhance the operational efficiency of TCM enterprises [9][10]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the pharmaceutical industry is poised for recovery in growth rates, with improved external environments for innovative drugs and TCM enterprises [10][11].

广东省首批土地收储点评 联合资信 公用评级四部 | 李坤 | 朱玉洁 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 0 引言 伴随房地产行业深度调整，地方政府土地出让收入持续下滑，地方财政承压明 显。2024 年以来，中央政府出台了一系列政策，旨在盘活闲置存量土地，促进房 地产市场止跌回稳，同时通过盘活存量资产化解地方债务风险。2025 年 1 月以来， 广东省多个城市公示了 2025 年广东省第一批土地储备领域申报地方政府专项债的 项目情况，其收储土地的特点、对地方政府以及城投企业的影响值得关注。 一、政策背景 土地出让收入是地方政府财政收入的重要组成部分，在促进城市建设、完善基 础设施等方面发挥了重要作用。随着"三道红线"、贷款集中度管理、预售资金监 管加强和限购限贷限价等房地产行业收紧政策的密集出台，房地产行业自 2021 年 起步入下行通道，房地产企业资金紧张、拿地意愿偏弱，土地市场持续低迷，中国 房地产投资规模以及地方土地出让收入均呈现明显的下滑趋势，地方财政压力显 著增加。土地出让收入是城投企业业务回款的重要来源，其规模下降影响地方政府 对城投企业的业务回款、资金支持等多个方面，虽然一揽子化债方案 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the construction industry, suggesting that infrastructure demand is expected to recover due to more proactive fiscal policies and improved liquidity for construction companies [1][4][8]. Core Insights - The government work report for 2025 emphasizes a stable yet progressive approach, with several positive signals for the construction industry, including increased fiscal support and measures to mitigate local government debt risks [3][4][8]. - The report highlights that the narrow infrastructure demand is likely to benefit from more aggressive fiscal policies, which will help improve the liquidity of construction enterprises [1][4]. - The construction sector is expected to see a recovery in demand as fiscal spending intensifies, particularly with the increase in special local government bonds aimed at infrastructure investment [5][8]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy - The 2025 government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% and proposes a deficit rate of approximately 4%, which is an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year. The issuance of long-term special bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year [4][9]. - The report also mentions that local government special bonds will amount to 4.4 trillion yuan, up by 500 billion yuan, primarily for investment construction and addressing overdue payments to enterprises [4][9]. Infrastructure Investment - The report indicates that infrastructure investment in China, excluding electricity, saw a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4% in 2024, which is a decline of 1.5 percentage points compared to 2023. This slowdown is attributed to reduced investments in roads, pipelines, and public facilities led by local governments [5][6]. - The increased fiscal spending, especially from the central government, is expected to provide strong support for the recovery of narrow infrastructure investment growth [5][6]. Real Estate Sector - The report notes that while the real estate sector's construction demand is expected to stabilize, it may take time for significant improvements. Policies aimed at preventing debt defaults among real estate companies and ensuring housing delivery are anticipated to enhance cash flow for construction firms [7][8]. - The government emphasizes the need to adapt to high-quality housing demands and improve standards for construction, which will raise expectations for future products in the industry [7][8]. International Market Opportunities - The report highlights that the overseas engineering contracting market is expected to expand further with the deepening of the "Belt and Road" initiative. In 2024, China's completed overseas contracting projects are projected to reach 166 billion USD, a 3.1% increase from the previous year [8][9]. - The construction sector is likely to continue exploring opportunities along the "Belt and Road" routes to find new growth avenues amid domestic industry slowdowns [8].

广东省首批土地收储点评 联合资信 公用评级四部 | 李坤 | 朱玉洁 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 0 引言 伴随房地产行业深度调整，地方政府土地出让收入持续下滑，地方财政承压明 显。2024 年以来，中央政府出台了一系列政策，旨在盘活闲置存量土地，促进房 地产市场止跌回稳，同时通过盘活存量资产化解地方债务风险。2025 年 1 月以来， 广东省多个城市公示了 2025 年广东省第一批土地储备领域申报地方政府专项债的 项目情况，其收储土地的特点、对地方政府以及城投企业的影响值得关注。 一、政策背景 土地出让收入是地方政府财政收入的重要组成部分，在促进城市建设、完善基 础设施等方面发挥了重要作用。随着"三道红线"、贷款集中度管理、预售资金监 管加强和限购限贷限价等房地产行业收紧政策的密集出台，房地产行业自 2021 年 起步入下行通道，房地产企业资金紧张、拿地意愿偏弱，土地市场持续低迷，中国 房地产投资规模以及地方土地出让收入均呈现明显的下滑趋势，地方财政压力显 著增加。土地出让收入是城投企业业务回款的重要来源，其规模下降影响地方政府 对城投企业的业务回款、资金支持等多个方面，虽然一揽子化债方案 ...

持续防风险，加力稳楼市——2025 年政府工作报告中房地 产相关内容解读 联合资信 工商评级一部 朱一汀 卢瑞 房地产行业仍处于风险防范及化解的重要阶段，在"牢牢守住不发生系 统性风险底线"的前提下，2025 年政府工作报告指出要"持续用力推动房地 产市场止跌回稳"，并首提"稳住楼市股市""有效防范房企债务违约风险"， 表现出政府对于稳住房地产的决心。围绕"去库存"要求，在供应端控制增 量、盘活存量，给予城市政府在"收储"时更大自主权；在需求端通过持续 调整限制性政策，充分释放住房需求潜力，推动"好房子"的建设。预计未 来一段时间，在取消核心城市剩余限制政策、优化公积金贷款等方面仍有较 大实施空间；房企有望获得更加直接的融资支持，通过"换仓"改善土储结 构，加快资金回流，并调整经营模式以适应房地产发展新要求。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 自 2024 年 9 月中央政治局会议定调"房地产市场止跌回稳"以来，房地产市场 得到阶段性提振效果。但房地产行业仍处于风险防范及化解的重要阶段，在"牢牢守 住不发生系统性风险底线"的前提下，2025 年政府工作报告（以下简称"报告"）指 出要"持续用力 ...