1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2024, the panel industry has entered a new upward cycle. The demand for high - end consumer electronics is the medium - to - long - term core driver for the industry's upward movement from 2026 - 2028, but the uncertainty of national subsidy policies may lead to demand fluctuations. - High - end panel production capacity is expanding rapidly, while low - end capacity remains stable, and panel prices are relatively stable. - Leading enterprises are expected to maintain stable profits and reduce leverage through demand recovery, technological iteration, and production control. In contrast, most small and medium - sized manufacturers have high leverage, low profitability due to the squeeze from leading enterprises, and some may be eliminated [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Introduction - In the past few decades, the panel manufacturing industry has shifted to China. In 2024, the share of mainland China's LCD panels exceeded 70%. The industry's production capacity structure has been optimized, and high - end panel products have strong downstream demand. The future panel industry will feature multiple technological paths such as LCD, OLED, and Mini - LED [4]. 3.2 Panel Industry Cycle and Key Factors Affecting Credit Risk 3.2.1 Panel Industry Cycle - Since 2012, the panel industry has experienced three complete cycles and entered the fourth upward cycle since 2024. The industry is highly cyclical, with supply - demand changes, technological iteration, and competition pattern changes running through its development. In the upward phase, supply - demand and corporate performance improve; in the downward phase, there is over - supply, price decline, and an increase in the number of loss - making enterprises [5]. - **First cycle**: The upward phase was from September 2014 to June 2015, with growing LCD demand and rising prices. The downward phase was from July 2015 to August 2016, with over - supply due to the concentrated launch of LCD 8.5 - generation production lines and falling prices [6]. - **Second cycle**: The upward phase was from September 2016 to November 2017, driven by the demand for large - size LCD TVs and mobile phone OLED screens, and the contraction of Korean enterprises' LCD capacity. The downward phase was from December 2017 to December 2019, with over - supply due to the concentrated launch of high - generation LCD production lines and falling prices [6]. - **Third cycle**: The upward phase was from April 2020 to July 2021, due to the "stay - at - home economy" during the pandemic and the exit of Korean enterprises from the LCD field. The downward phase was from August 2021 to October 2022, with the decline of the "stay - at - home economy" and over - supply. The adjustment phase was from November 2022 to the end of 2023, with panel manufacturers controlling production and prices starting to rise in March 2023 [6][7]. - **Fourth cycle**: Since 2024, the upward cycle has been driven by the "trade - in" policy, with the demand for medium - sized OLED applications in vehicles and tablets continuously released. Leading panel manufacturers control production, and panel prices are stable [11]. 3.2.2 Core Factors Affecting Panel Industry Credit Risk - **Supply - demand situation**: Supply - demand changes cause panel price fluctuations, affecting corporate revenue, cash flow, and solvency. In the upward cycle, demand is strong, prices rise, and credit risk is low; in the downward cycle, over - supply leads to price drops and increased credit risk [12]. - **Technological iteration**: It helps reduce production costs and improve efficiency but also accelerates the elimination of old - technology production lines. Enterprises that fail to keep up with technological trends face product backlogs and increased credit risk [13]. - **Market competition**: In the upward cycle, competition is mild, and credit risk is controllable. In the downward cycle, leading enterprises squeeze the living space of small and medium - sized manufacturers, increasing their credit risk [15]. - **Financial leverage and profitability**: The panel industry is capital - intensive, and enterprises rely on debt financing for expansion, leading to high asset - liability ratios. In the upward cycle, profitability is strong, and credit risk is low; in the downward cycle, over - supply and high debt pressure increase credit risk [16]. 3.3 Changes in Credit Risk Factors in the Current Upward Cycle (2024 - present) 3.3.1 Supply - demand Situation - In the current upward cycle, panel demand is driven by the demand upgrade of consumer electronics and the national "trade - in" policy. The overall supply - demand is in a tight balance, with stable low - end capacity and rapidly expanding high - end capacity. Panel prices are basically stable [17]. - In 2024, the global display panel market size reached 1.3 trillion yuan, a 9.41% increase from the previous year, and is predicted to reach 1.4 trillion yuan in 2025. The average size of global LCD TV panels increased to 51.4 inches, the sales of Mini - LED TVs increased by 490.6%, the shipment of tablets increased by 9.2%, the shipment of monitors increased by 1.5%, and the shipment of smartphone display panels increased by 7%, with the shipment of OLED smartphones increasing by 26% [17][18][19]. - The government has issued a series of policies to support the development of the panel industry, including promoting technological research and expanding the scope of "trade - in" subsidies [20][21]. - In the future, high - end panel supply may face over - capacity risks after 2028 if new production capacity continues to be launched and demand growth is lower than expected [23]. - Panel prices are expected to start a general decline in November 2025, with mainstream - size panel prices expected to drop by $2 and larger - size panels having a more significant decline [24][26]. 3.3.2 Technological Iteration - The global display panel market shows a diversified development of technological routes. LCD dominates the low - to - mid - end market, OLED penetrates the mid - to - high - end market, Mini - LED fills the gap between them, and Micro LED has not been commercialized [28]. - In 2024, the market share of TFT - LCD was 56.25%, and that of OLED was 14.51%. In 2025, the demand for OLED panels in mobile phones and mid - sized IT products increased [31]. - Mini - LED has the advantages of long life and low cost, and its TV shipments exceeded those of OLED in 2025. Micro LED has excellent performance but is limited by high cost and technical bottlenecks [33]. 3.3.3 Market Competition - The panel industry is mainly dominated by Korean and Chinese enterprises, with a stable and highly concentrated competition pattern. Chinese enterprises have the right to speak in the LCD field, Korean manufacturers dominate the OLED field, and the competition situation between Chinese and Korean enterprises in the Mini - LED field varies in different industrial chain links [34]. - In the LCD field, mainland China's capacity accounted for 72.7% in 2024, and the concentration is increasing. In the OLED field, Korean manufacturers still have an advantage, while Chinese enterprises are making technological breakthroughs. In the Mini - LED field, Chinese and Korean enterprises are competing, and Chinese enterprises have achieved a breakthrough in the upstream of the industrial chain [34][35][36]. 3.3.4 Financial Leverage and Profitability - In the current upward cycle, panel enterprises' financial leverage remains high, with leading enterprises' total debt - to - capital ratio at around 50% and mid - to - tail enterprises' exceeding 60%. Profitability has improved through production control and price stabilization, but the gross profit margin is still low [38]. - In the first half of 2025, 4 out of 8 mainland Chinese panel enterprises achieved profitability. The gross profit margins of leading enterprises are between 13% - 16%, while those of mid - to - tail enterprises are below 7% or even negative [40][42]. - The new OLED 8.6 - generation production lines under construction by some enterprises will drag down their profitability in the short term but will have cost advantages in the long term, squeezing the profit space of non - layout enterprises [44]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook of Panel Industry Credit Risk in the Current Upward Cycle - The demand for high - end consumer electronics is the medium - to - long - term core driver for the industry's upward movement, but the uncertainty of national subsidy policies may lead to demand fluctuations [45]. - Low - end panel capacity is stable, and high - end capacity is expanding rapidly. High - end panels are expected to achieve supply - demand balance from 2026 - 2028, but there may be over - capacity risks after 2028 [45]. - The panel industry will present a multi - technology parallel pattern for a long time. LCD will maintain its mainstream position, OLED will penetrate the mid - to - high - end market, Mini - LED will fill the high - end niche market, and Micro LED will be difficult to become the mainstream in the short term [46]. - In the current upward cycle, Chinese enterprises monopolize the LCD market, and the concentration will continue to increase. The years from 2026 - 2028 will be crucial for the competition between Chinese and Korean high - generation OLED production lines. Chinese enterprises will expand their leading edge in the Mini - LED field [47]. - The financial leverage shows a differentiated trend. Leading enterprises will gradually reduce leverage, while most mid - to - tail enterprises have high leverage and high risks [48]. - The profitability is concentrated in leading enterprises. Leading enterprises' profitability will continue to increase, while mid - to - tail enterprises' profitability is low, and some may be eliminated [48][49].

山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村 ——贵州省地方债务化解观察与展望 联合资信 公用评级四部 |刘 嫱|刘 成|刘亚利 摘要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 近年来，贵州省地方债务呈现规模持续增长、区域债务负担偏重，地市债务压力分化、贵阳和遵义区 域债务压力较大，部分地市城投企业流动性承压，城投债兑付较为集中，负面舆情持续存在等特征。 贵州省化债资源相对较弱，但中央政府政策支持力度较大，近年来化债手段日趋丰富，贵州省通过金 融支持化债、特殊再融资债券和特殊新增专项债、盘活国有资产，以及省属国资平台提供支持、安排 各类财政资金、设立应急资金池等多措并举，化债工作取得一定成效。具体来看，发债城投企业债务 规模压降明显，融资渠道改善，城投债信用利差收窄、集中兑付压力减轻；但仍需关注到贵州省城投 债信用利差仍处于较高水平，城投企业短期流动性持续承压等问题。 短期来看，随着一揽子化债及增量化债政策的持续实施，贵州省作为重点省份将持续受益，在政策保 护期内流动性风险整体可控，但城投企业还本付息压力仍较大。长期来看，债务化解依赖地方政府及 城投企业的自身发展。贵州省在白酒、矿产精深加工、数字经济、新能源、特色 ...

Policy Overview - The "Implementation Plan" aims to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, targeting the formation of three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027[6]. - The plan emphasizes a shift from broad-based consumption policies to a focus on quality supply that meets diverse consumer needs, aiming for structural optimization in supply-demand matching[3]. Key Objectives - By 2027, the consumer goods supply structure is expected to be significantly optimized, with specific focus on sectors such as elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics[6]. - The plan outlines five key tasks and nineteen specific initiatives, including accelerating new technology applications and expanding the supply of unique and innovative products[12]. Market Impact - The plan is projected to activate consumption potential through supply-side reforms, addressing mismatches where consumers want to buy but cannot find suitable products[6]. - The expected contribution of consumption to economic growth is set to increase steadily, with a goal of achieving a high-quality development pattern by 2030[6]. Industry Focus - Key consumption hotspots include baby products, smart wearables, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor goods, pet supplies, and cultural fashion items[6]. - The plan encourages industries to focus on precise demand matching, technological empowerment, and the integration of consumption scenarios to maximize policy benefits[14]. Financial Support - The plan highlights the importance of financial support and aims to enhance the adaptability and convenience of consumer finance services, with a focus on promoting consumption through subsidies and incentives[18]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy policies are expected to continue into 2026, with an emphasis on targeted and expanded coverage[18].

去"内卷化"背景下：中国光伏制造业 的价值重构与发展新范式 联合资信 工商评级三部 |马金星 |高 星 近年来，在"双碳"目标引领和地方产业政策驱动下，光伏制造端产能 快速扩张，但阶段性产能过剩问题日益凸显，产业链各环节产品同质化严重， 产品低价恶性竞争，光伏制造企业财务状况明显恶化，行业信用水平恶化。 面对以光伏等产业为代表的无序化、非理性的竞争态势，我国将综合整 治"内卷式"竞争提升至国家战略任务层面，多部门及行业协会协同推出"产 能调控与价格规范"组合措施。因协会自律约束力弱，且民企为主的光伏产 业很难简单复制钢铁、水泥等行业供给侧改革措施，其产能过剩破局仍需政 府、行业协会及企业协同发力。未来，在法律法规强约束下，行业协会自律 机制逐步落实，光伏产业链产能出清节奏或将加速，预计具备技术领先优势、 充足的现金储备以及稳健的财务状况的光伏企业有望穿越周期。长期来看， 全球光伏市场仍具备较大的增长空间。 近年来，光伏产业作为实现"双碳"目标的重要支撑领域之一，在政策推动下光 伏装机需求快速增加，带动制造端产能持续扩张。与此同时，为实现 GDP 增速目标， 部分地方政府迫于压力过度招商引资，而光伏产业作为投资 ...

架设风险"新桥梁"——巨灾债券国际 市场实践与内地发行可行性分析 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 架设风险"新桥梁"——巨灾债券国际市场实践与内 地市场发行可行性分析 一、巨灾债券的诞生与理论研究 巨灾债券是一种保险连接证券，是在传统再保险承保能力面临重大自然灾害冲 击背景下应运而生的金融创新工具，其核心功能是将保险市场承担的巨灾风险证券 化，将保险市场承载的巨灾风险转移至容量更大的资本市场，从而构建起跨越两个市 场的风险分散"新桥梁"。20 世纪 90 年代初期，安德鲁飓风和北里奇地震重创美国 保险市场，传统再保险难以满足巨灾风险分散需求，催生了这一链接保险与资本市场 的风险分散工具。1997 年，USAA 通过开曼群岛发行了首只巨灾债券，标志着该工具 的诞生。与巨灾再保险相比，巨灾债券能够有效拓宽巨灾风险的承保边界，能有效的 隔绝了发起人的信用风险，并通过提前锁定利率确保成本相对稳定。 巨灾债券的核心机制围绕特殊目的载体（以下简称"SPV"）展开。发起人通过 设立 SPV，将其承担的特定巨灾风险进行转移并向 SPV 支付转移对价；SPV 向资本 市场投资者发行债券，募集资金、风险转移对价 ...

2025 年前三季度出版行业运行 分析 联合资信 工商评级二部 |王 阳 2025 年前三季度，出版行业整体承压但结构分化明显。刚需品类持续领跑， IP 衍生与经典文学类图书表现突出。渠道端呈现差异化态势，部分线上渠 道保持增长，传统电商与实体渠道面临挑战。企业营收略有下滑但利润实 现增长，政策聚焦行业规范与数字化转型。行业存在爆款周期缩短、同质 化竞争等问题，未来将朝着结构性增长、全渠道融合及品牌化数字化方向 推进。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、行业运行状况 2025 年前三季度，出版行业呈现"整体承压、局部亮点"的格局，整体市场微幅 回落并呈结构性分化，图书零售市场处于下行态势。中金易云数据显示，2025 年前三 季度纸质图书市场码洋达 786.09 亿元，同比下降 10.40%，动销品种数为 116.95 万种， 同比下降 4.92%，平均定价微升 1.86%至 47.56 元。从剔除文教类图书后的口径看， 2025 年前三季度，图书市场销售码洋同比下降 15.49%，一般图书市场存在较大的下 行压力。新书方面，2025 年前三季度，新书码洋同比下降约 5%，动销新品数同比下 ...

中央经济工作会议解读：稳预 期、育新能、化风险 联合资信研究中心| 张 振、王 妍、吴 玥 本次中央经济工作会议于"十四五"收官与"十五五"开局的关键节点召 开，在精准研判"供强需弱"等转型挑战的同时，夯实了经济长期向好的 信心基础。会议的核心在于运用"跨周期"系统思维，统筹短期稳增长与 中长期改革。政策框架强调协同与效能：财政政策注重加力、优化与纪律 的平衡；货币政策灵活性提升，将"物价合理回升"置于重要地位，旨在 稳定名义增长、改善企业信用基本面。重点任务围绕培育新动能与化解旧 风险展开：通过"城乡居民增收"和"推动投资止跌回稳"双轮驱动内需； 以科技创新和统一大市场建设提升发展质量；对房地产与地方债务风险实 施"控增量、去库存、优供给"及全口径精细化拆解，推动风险有序出清。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 中央经济工作会议于"十四五"圆满收官、"十五五"谋篇布局的历史性节点召 开，在深刻洞察"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"等短期挑战的同时，旗帜鲜明地指出"我 国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变"，为处于转型阵痛期的市场注入了 宝贵的确定性。本次部署最鲜明的特征在于其"跨周期"的系统性思 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the toll road industry, with expectations of low growth in investment and revenue due to diminishing returns from toll income as the road network matures [5][6]. Core Insights - The toll road industry in China is experiencing a significant slowdown in investment growth, with 2024 projected to see the lowest growth rate in history at -12.2% [6][13]. - The demand for road transport remains stable, but competition from high-speed rail and civil aviation is impacting passenger transport volumes, while the freight transport sector may face challenges due to the "dual carbon" goals promoting a shift from road to rail and water transport [6][20][21]. - The industry is moving towards a new phase of intelligent development, driven by government policies and initiatives aimed at integrating artificial intelligence into transportation [6][8][9]. Industry Policies - Recent policies focus on optimizing toll collection methods, enhancing road utilization, and encouraging private capital participation in toll road projects [7][8]. - The government is pushing for reforms in toll road management and maintenance systems, aiming to improve operational efficiency and financial stability [7][9]. - The introduction of guidelines for public-private partnerships in toll road projects aims to ensure that project revenues cover construction and operational costs while encouraging private investment [8]. Industry Performance - The toll road network in China has expanded significantly, reaching a total length of 190,700 kilometers by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [14]. - Investment in toll roads has been substantial, maintaining an annual scale of over 1 trillion yuan since 2018, but growth rates have declined since 2020 [13][14]. - The financial performance of toll road enterprises shows a notable regional disparity, with eastern provinces generally exhibiting higher toll revenue per kilometer compared to western regions [32][42]. Debt and Financial Analysis - The overall debt burden of toll road enterprises is increasing, with total debt reaching approximately 91,520.30 billion yuan by mid-2025, and a slight increase in the debt capitalization ratio to 64.33% [4][42]. - Short-term debt levels are rising, and while cash assets cover short-term obligations, the overall coverage ratio is moderate, indicating potential liquidity concerns [42][49]. - Government support remains significant, particularly in western and northeastern regions, where enterprises are more reliant on subsidies to maintain operations [42][52]. Company Analysis - The report highlights that provincial toll road enterprises dominate the traffic infrastructure investment and management landscape, with many holding over 60% of the toll road mileage in their respective provinces [31]. - Companies are diversifying their operations beyond traditional toll collection, engaging in construction, real estate development, and smart transportation initiatives to enhance resilience against market fluctuations [34][40]. - The trend towards mergers and acquisitions is evident, with companies seeking to consolidate assets and improve market competitiveness [34][35].

Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - Under the guidance of the central government's three - dimensional policy system of "stock debt resolution + incremental debt standardization + innovation empowerment", Jiangsu Province has introduced supporting policies to support the transformation and development of urban investment and industrial investment entities. The new bond - issuing market of these entities in Jiangsu shows distinct structural characteristics. In the future, the differentiation between urban investment and industrial investment entities will intensify, with truly transformed entities having financing advantages and those relying on government credit facing pressure [3][4][40] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Introduction - Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the central government has introduced debt management policies to set boundaries and directions for the financing of urban investment and industrial investment entities. Jiangsu Province has introduced supporting policies to support the transformation of relevant entities, and its strong industrial foundation provides support for transformation - related bond issuance [6] - The report analyzes the new bond - issuing situation of urban investment and industrial investment entities in Jiangsu from October 1, 2024, to September 30, 2025, to provide reference for relevant entities in financing path planning [7] Core Characteristics of Newly Issued Bonds of Urban Investment and Industrial Investment Enterprises in Jiangsu Province Sample Subject Characteristics - In terms of administrative level, newly - issued bond entities show a "municipal - level leading, district - county - level following" pattern. Among 34 new bond - issuing entities, 18 are municipal - level platforms (52.94%), and district - county and park - level platforms account for nearly half (44.12%), indicating initial marketization transformation achievements in some areas [9][10] - In terms of credit rating, the overall credit rating of sample enterprises is high. The proportion of AA+ and above high - grade issuers is 79.41%, higher than the national average (74.73%). Provincial and some core municipal - level platforms are mainly AAA - rated, while district - county - level platforms are concentrated in AA+ and AA levels [11] - In terms of enterprise characteristics, under the policy guidance, new bond - issuing entities are structurally differentiated, with the characteristics of "strong industrial attributes + policy labels". Among the 20 entities with available data, the proportion of people's livelihood service - type entities is 70.00%, and that of industrial park - type entities is 15.00% [14] - In terms of financial characteristics, after excluding outliers, for 20 sample entities with available data, the average proportion of urban construction - related assets in total assets is about 36%, the average proportion of urban construction - related income in total operating income is about 16%, and the average proportion of fiscal subsidies in net profit is about 36%. The latter two meet the "335" principle, but the former does not [18] Sample Bond Characteristics - In terms of bond variety structure, private placement corporate bonds dominate, accounting for 43.06% of 72 sample bonds. Some high - credit - rating entities issue bonds across markets. Enterprise bonds account for only 4, and all funds are invested in project construction [19] - In terms of fund use, debt repayment is the core direction, but different trading venues have different characteristics. In the inter - bank market, debt repayment accounts for 61.27% of the new bond issuance scale, and project construction accounts for 33.88%. In the exchange market, debt repayment is also the main use, but the use combination in the exchange market is more diverse, and the proportion of non - pure debt - repayment uses in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is higher than that in the Shanghai Stock Exchange [21][25][27] - Among labeled bonds, green bonds are important. During the observation period, 34 new bond - issuing entities issued 13 green bonds with a scale of 8.805 billion yuan. Entities with people's livelihood attributes and strong industrial - attribute industrial park - type entities are more likely to issue labeled bonds [29] Typical Case Analysis Case 1: An Operating Entity of a National High - tech Zone in Suzhou - Business layout: It constructs a diversified business ecosystem with a full - chain market - oriented operation system in the industrial park and a market - oriented investment structure in strategic emerging industries, with remarkable transformation results [31] - Financial performance: Market - oriented business drives the company's profit, with the proportion of market - oriented business income in revenue exceeding 60%, and investment income contributing significantly to profit [32] - Financing practice: In 2025, it issued over 10 billion yuan of bonds. The green medium - term notes are invested in projects that can bring long - term stable income and optimize the debt structure, achieving a virtuous cycle between financing and business development [32][33] Case 2: An Investment and Operating Entity in Kunshan - Business layout: It focuses on the investment in high - tech projects in core fields through its equity investment business in the quasi - financial sector, with a clear layout in science and technology innovation business [34] - Financial performance: The proportion of urban investment - related assets is low, and fiscal subsidies and investment income contribute significantly to profit [35] - Financing practice: From December 2024 to June 2025, it issued 400 million yuan of science and technology innovation corporate bonds, and the funds are mainly used for science and technology innovation - related investments, matching the policy requirements [36] Practical Suggestions for New Bond Issuance - Deepen the market - oriented business layout, focus on policy - supported areas, and reduce dependence on government subsidies, referring to the experience of the Suzhou high - tech zone operating entity [38] - Strengthen regional resource integration, and district - county and park - level platforms can seek support from local governments [38] - Adapt to market characteristics, choose financing tools and issuance venues flexibly. Private placement corporate bonds can be the core choice, and high - credit - rating entities can try inter - bank varieties or cross - market issuance [38] - Follow the principle of "strong industrial attributes + policy labels", and different types of entities should take corresponding measures to improve policy fit and financing adaptability [39] - Actively connect with labeled bond policies, and entities in relevant fields can apply for corresponding labeled bonds to enhance financing competitiveness [39] Conclusion - The new bond - issuing market of urban investment and industrial investment entities in Jiangsu shows structural characteristics at both the subject and bond levels. The core logic of the typical cases is that business transformation conforms to policy orientation and financing planning matches market rules [40] - In the future, entities need to strengthen market - oriented transformation, choose appropriate financing tools, and connect with policy support to achieve a virtuous cycle between financing and business [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a need for "capacity restructuring" in the chlor-alkali chemical industry due to significant supply-demand imbalances, particularly in PVC products [2][31]. Core Insights - The core conclusion of the report is that in an optimistic scenario, there will be a substantial supply shortage of caustic soda, while the supply-demand gap for PVC will be relatively small. In a pessimistic scenario, caustic soda will experience a slight oversupply, and PVC will continue to face significant oversupply [2][28][31]. Industry Background - The chlor-alkali chemical industry primarily produces caustic soda (sodium hydroxide) and PVC (polyvinyl chloride), with China being the largest global producer, accounting for approximately 40% of caustic soda and 45% of PVC production [4][6]. - The industry has undergone significant cyclical changes over the past decade, influenced by factors such as supply-side reforms, environmental regulations, and the COVID-19 pandemic [6][9]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The report forecasts the supply-demand relationship for caustic soda and PVC from 2026 to 2028 under different market scenarios. In the optimistic scenario, the annual supply gap for caustic soda will be 295,000 tons, 549,000 tons, and 813,000 tons over the three years, respectively. In the pessimistic scenario, there will be an oversupply of 28,000 tons, 59,000 tons, and 93,000 tons [23][28]. Current Supply and Demand Issues - The chlor-alkali industry faces significant challenges, including supply-demand imbalances, operational difficulties for enterprises, structural contradictions, and increasing environmental pressures. The demand for PVC is heavily tied to the real estate sector, which has been experiencing a downturn [17][31]. - As of 2024, the domestic caustic soda capacity is projected to be around 50 million tons, with a production of approximately 41 million tons, while PVC capacity is expected to be about 29 million tons, with a production of around 22 million tons [16][17]. Future Projections - The report emphasizes the urgent need for the industry to address the "alkali-chlorine balance" structural issue and accelerate the implementation of the "capacity restructuring" strategy to enhance competitiveness and achieve sustainable development [32].