Report Overview - The report is a black metal R & D report focusing on ferroalloys, including market information, market analysis, and relevant charts, dated August 19, 2025 [2] 1. Market Information Futures - SF main contract closed at 5678, down 202 for the day and 142 for the week, with a trading volume of 372,552 (up 155,765) and an open interest of 214,474 (up 18,596) [4] - SM main contract closed at 5914, down 206 for the day and 196 for the week, with a trading volume of 193,093 (up 80,701) and an open interest of 114,885 (down 27,813) [4] Spot - For ferrosilicon, 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu and Tianjin it remained stable or increased slightly [4] - For silicomanganese, 6517 silicomanganese in most regions decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton [4] Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon basis in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai improved, while the SF - SM spread was -236, up 4 for the day and 54 for the week [4] Raw Materials - Manganese ore prices in Tianjin decreased slightly, and the price of semi - coke small materials in some regions increased [4] 2. Market Analysis Trading Strategy - On August 19, ferroalloy futures prices dropped significantly. The SF main contract fell 3.44%, and the SM main contract fell 3.37% [7] - For ferrosilicon, spot prices were weak on the 19th. Supply increased rapidly, while steel output growth was limited. After the sharp drop, the futures price is close to the cost in some regions, and short - selling profit - loss ratio is not high, so short positions can be partially reduced [7] - For silicomanganese, manganese ore and spot prices decreased. Supply also increased rapidly, and there are risks on the demand side. Similar to ferrosilicon, short - selling profit - loss ratio is not high, and short positions can be partially reduced [7] - Unilateral: Short positions can be partially reduced; Arbitrage: Consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the basis is low; Options: Sell straddle option combinations on rallies [8] Important Information - Starting from August 19, 2025, Shagang reduced the scrap steel price by 30 yuan/ton [9] - On the 19th, the quotes of manganese ore in Tianjin Port were announced [9] 3. Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing ferroalloy main contract trends, spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [11][15][19][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the products in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the price trends and market conditions of various energy and chemical products on July 30, 2025. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical events, inventory data, and supply - demand fundamentals to provide investment suggestions for each product [1][2][4] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices rose. WTI 9 - month contract closed up 2.50 dollars to 69.21 dollars/barrel, Brent 9 - month contract up 2.47 dollars to 72.51 dollars/barrel, and SC2509 up 12.8 yuan/barrel to 527.5 yuan/barrel. Trump's potential sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine issue increase supply concerns. API data shows an increase in US crude and distillate inventories and a decrease in gasoline inventories. If secondary sanctions occur, it will impact the Asian market and raise energy prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose. The market structure slightly recovered. Traders expect an increase in arrivals from Europe in July. High - sulfur fuel oil in Asia faces supply pressure from Middle - East cargoes. It's advisable to stop losses on previous spread shorts and wait for new opportunities [2] - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Tuesday. Entering August, northern demand will increase, and some refineries plan to resume production or increase output. However, some refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans, and some have maintenance plans. Rainy weather affects demand, but there is potential for improvement after the rainy season. Short - term prices are supported by low supply and inventory, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil prices stabilize [2] - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures rose on Tuesday. Polyester device operations are adjusted, with some starting up and some shutting down for maintenance. The "anti - involution" market fades, but cost - side oil price support and downstream demand resilience, along with low visible inventories in TA and EG, are expected to drive polyester prices to oscillate strongly [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, rubber futures prices fell. The European replacement tire market in Q2 2025 declined year - on - year. The "anti - involution" market fades, and macro events cause short - term wide - range oscillations in rubber prices [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol prices showed different trends in different regions. Iranian device loads have recovered, arrival volumes have increased, downstream profits and operations are stable, and inventories are rising. It is expected to enter an oscillating phase after valuation repair [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, polyolefin prices were in a certain range. Polyolefins are gradually moving towards a situation of strong supply and demand. If the cost side does not drop significantly, the downside space for polyolefins is limited [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply remains high - level oscillating, demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventories are slowly decreasing. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and short - selling power may recover [7] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis details of various energy and chemical products on July 30, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, etc., such as spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8] Market News - Trump's potential sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine issue increase market concerns about supply shortages. API data shows that US crude inventories increased more than expected in the week ending July 25, while gasoline inventories decreased and distillate inventories increased [10] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [12][13][14] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., over different time periods [27][29][33] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report analyzes the spreads of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [42][44][48] - **Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low - sulfur spreads, etc. [59][61][65] - **Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit trends of products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [68][73] Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of the research institute, with rich experience in futures derivatives research and many honors. She has served many listed companies and designed risk - management and investment strategies [75] - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and many industry honors [76] - **Di Yilin**: A rubber and polyester analyst, with achievements in the industry and strong data analysis and logical thinking abilities [77] - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in both financial theory and industrial operations [78]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral trend is weakening, rated as "Weak" [1][8] - PTA: Weak, with basis reverse arbitrage and monthly spread positive arbitrage opportunities, rated as "Weak" [1][8] - MEG: Trend turns weak, with monthly spread reverse arbitrage, rated as "Weak" [1][8] Core Viewpoints - PX's price decline is a correction after the sharp rise on July 25, and future Asian supply will gradually increase; PTA's spot supply pressure increases, and attention should be paid to basis and monthly spread arbitrage; MEG is short - term bearish due to supply pressure and other factors [3][9][10] Market Overview PX - End - of - day naphtha price declined, and today's PX price dropped significantly. Two September Asian spot deals were at 855 and 854, and one October deal was at 848. The decline is seen as a correction after the July 25 surge, driven by China's discussion on curbing industrial over - capacity. Crude oil's afternoon weakness added downward pressure, but its potential rebound may support PX [3][5] PTA - PTA spot price fell to 4800 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 09 - 7 [5] MEG - East China main port MEG inventory is about 52.1 tons, down 1.2 tons from the previous period. Different ports have different inventory changes [6] Polyester - A 300,000 - ton polyester new device in Anhui will be put into production tomorrow. Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales are light, with an average sales rate of less than 30% as of 3:30 pm. Direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales are average, with an average sales rate of 48% as of 3:00 pm [6][7] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, and MEG trend intensities are all - 1, indicating a weak trend [8] Views and Suggestions PX - Unilateral trend turns weak, hedge on rallies. Go long PX and short PTA01 contract, short PXN on rallies. China's PX开工率 is 79.9% (1.2%), and Asia's is 72.9% (- 0.7%). Future Asian supply will gradually increase [9] PTA - Unilateral turns weak, industries can hedge on rallies. Pay attention to going long PX and short PTA on 01 contract. Basis is in reverse arbitrage, and 9 - 1 monthly spread positive arbitrage can be considered. PTA装置开工率 remains at 79.7%. Pay attention to high - valuation PTA processing fee compression positions [9][10] MEG - Short - term bearish. Pay attention to supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. Consider shorting ethylene glycol and going long L arbitrage. Import volume will change in different months, and domestic supply is relatively loose [10][11]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report provides industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures opened higher and moved up, with SI2509 rising 440 yuan/ton to 9260 yuan/ton. Spot prices also increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton, opening the basis arbitrage window. From the supply - demand perspective, the shutdown of large - scale organic silicon enterprises due to fire will reduce 3% of the demand, which is not conducive to price increases. However, price increases in organic silicon, polysilicon, and coking coal are favorable for industrial silicon prices. With the reduction of warehouse receipts and controllable inventory, the price continues to rise. Technically, the daily line strongly breaks through the resistance level. Macroscopically, the commodity market is in a bullish trend, and large enterprises have no plans to resume production, which is conducive to the strong oscillation of industrial silicon prices. Attention should be paid to whether the spot price will continue to rise, and due to the large open interest of the 09 contract, position control and risk management are recommended [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices opened high, fell back, and then fluctuated upwards, with PS2509 rising 1810 yuan/ton to 45660 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage window. The price increase is being transmitted downstream, and the increase in silicon product transactions and prices is conducive to price support. Downstream prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have increased by 0.2 - 4%. Attention should be paid to whether the terminal installation can absorb the products. With the approaching delivery month of the 08 contract, investors need to pay attention to position control and risk management, and whether the increase in prices will lead to an increase in warehouse receipts and hedging positions. Technically, the daily line has a long lower shadow, and the hourly line shows a top - divergence sign, but it is still above the moving average. There is an increase in the divergence between bulls and bears, and price fluctuations are large [2]. Soda Ash - Under the influence of relevant policies and news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the futures market has risen sharply, and the market has certain expectations for the elimination of backward production capacity. The macro - market sentiment is bullish, with the stock market and commodities rebounding. Although the inventory decreased on Monday this week, there was a continuous inventory build - up trend before, and the inventory of soda ash plants continued to reach new highs. In the medium term, after the photovoltaic installation rush in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass production capacity has slowed down, the float glass production capacity has flattened, and there is still pressure on supply and demand in the second half of the year, with a possible further cold - repair expectation. Therefore, the overall demand for soda ash has not increased significantly. Without actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction, inventory build - up may accelerate. In the short term, due to policy and news disturbances, the futures market fluctuates sharply, deviating from its fundamental logic, and caution is recommended [3]. Glass - Under the influence of relevant policies and news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the futures market has risen sharply, and the market has certain expectations for the elimination of backward production capacity. The macro - market sentiment is bullish, with the stock market and commodities rebounding. The futures market sentiment has driven the spot market to be strong, with high sales - to - production ratios in many regions and spot price increases. However, it is currently the rainy season in summer, the deep - processing orders are weak, the low - e glass production rate is continuously low, and there is certain pressure on the rigid demand side of glass. In the long run, the industry needs to eliminate production capacity to solve the over - supply problem. Therefore, it is necessary to wait for the implementation of production line exits to bring a real reversal to the futures market. Currently, the futures market is mainly driven by sentiment, and large fluctuations are expected in the near future. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia has continued to hinder rubber tapping in the producing areas, and raw material prices have rebounded. There may be a typhoon hitting Hainan next week, so there are many short - term disturbances on the supply side. On the demand side, the overall sales performance is mediocre, the channel inventory is sufficient, and the increase in terminal demand is limited, with a short - term stable trend. Although the hot weather has driven a certain increase in downstream demand, the overall effect is average. In the short term, affected by macro - sentiment and rainfall in the producing areas, rubber prices have continued to rebound. Attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation after the weather in the main producing areas improves, and short - term wait - and - see is recommended [5]. Logs - Recently, under the tone of anti - involution and stable growth, the sentiment of commodities has improved, and log futures have risen significantly last week. Fundamentally, the expected arrival volume this week is expected to gradually recover. Currently, due to the high - temperature weather, the demand for logs is in the off - season, and the spot price has declined. Short - term chasing of rising prices is not recommended, but buying on dips can be considered during corrections. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and policy expectations in the future [7]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon increased from 9320 to 9500 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.60%; the basis decreased from 655 to 240 yuan/ton, a decline of 63.36%. The price of Huale SI4210 industrial silicon increased from 9650 to 9750 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.04%; the basis decreased from - 10 to - 310 yuan/ton, a decline of 300.00%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased from 8650 to 8800 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.73%; the basis decreased from 755 to 340 yuan/ton, a decline of 54.97% [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 decreased from - 10 to - 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%; the spread of 2509 - 2510 increased from 35 to 70 yuan/ton, a rise of 100.00%; the spread of 2510 - 2511 increased from 30 to 80 yuan/ton, a rise of 166.67%; the spread of 2511 - 2512 increased from - 290 to - 210 yuan/ton, a rise of 27.59%; the spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased from 65 to 50 yuan/ton, a decline of 23.08% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production decreased from 34.22 to 30.08 million tons, a decline of 12.10%; Xinjiang's production decreased from 21.08 to 16.75 million tons, a decline of 20.55%; Yunnan's production increased from 1.23 to 1.35 million tons, a rise of 9.35%; Sichuan's production increased from 0.46 to 1.13 million tons, a rise of 145.65%. The national operating rate decreased from 57.80% to 51.23%, a decline of 11.37%; Xinjiang's operating rate decreased from 78.05% to 60.74%, a decline of 22.18%; Yunnan's operating rate decreased from 19.97% to 18.13%, a decline of 9.21%; Sichuan's operating rate increased from 0.49% to 7.30%, a rise of 1389.80%. Organic silicon DMC production increased from 18.40 to 20.93 million tons, a rise of 13.75%; polysilicon production increased from 9.61 to 10.10 million tons, a rise of 5.10%; recycled aluminum alloy production increased from 60.60 to 61.50 million tons, a rise of 1.49%; industrial silicon exports increased from 5.95 to 6.05 million tons, a rise of 1.64% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased from 12.39 to 12.36 million tons, a decline of 0.24%; Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased from 2.72 to 2.73 million tons, a rise of 0.37%; Sichuan's factory - warehouse inventory decreased from 2.33 to 2.30 million tons, a decline of 1.29%. Social inventory decreased from 55.10 to 54.70 million tons, a decline of 0.73%; warrant inventory decreased from 25.20 to 25.07 million tons, a decline of 0.50%; non - warrant inventory decreased from 29.90 to 29.63 million tons, a decline of 0.92% [1]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feedstock remained at 46000 yuan/ton; the average price of P - type cauliflower - like feedstock remained at 29500 yuan/ton; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained at 43000 yuan/ton. The N - type feedstock basis decreased from 2150 to 340 yuan/ton, a decline of 84.19%; the cauliflower - like feedstock basis decreased from - 2350 to - 4160 yuan/ton, a decline of 77.02% [2]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The price of PS2506 increased from 43850 to 45660 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.13%. The spread of PS2506 - PS2507 decreased from 370 to 225 yuan/ton, a decline of 39.19%; the spread of PS2507 - PS2508 decreased from 235 to 145 yuan/ton, a decline of 38.30%; the spread of PS2508 - PS2509 decreased from 320 to 180 yuan/ton, a decline of 43.75%; the spread of PS2509 - PS2510 decreased from - 2015 to - 2075 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.98%; the spread of PS2510 - PS2511 decreased from 380 to 240 yuan/ton, a decline of 43.75%; the spread of PS2511 - PS2512 decreased from 200 to 140 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.98% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly: Silicon wafer production decreased from 11.50 to 11.10 GW, a decline of 3.48%; polysilicon production increased from 2.28 to 2.30 million tons, a rise of 0.88%. Monthly: Polysilicon production increased from 9.61 to 10.10 million tons, a rise of 5.10%; polysilicon imports increased from 0.10 to 0.11 million tons, a rise of 16.59%; polysilicon exports increased from 0.21 to 0.22 million tons, a rise of 5.96%; the net export of polysilicon remained at 0.11 million tons, a decline of 2.91%. Silicon wafer production increased from 58.06 to 58.84 GM, a rise of 1.34%; silicon wafer imports decreased from 0.07 to 0.06 million tons, a decline of 15.41%; silicon wafer exports increased from 0.55 to 0.61 million tons, a rise of 11.37%; the net export of silicon wafers increased from 0.48 to 0.55 million tons, a rise of 15.56%. Silicon wafer demand decreased from 60.61 to 56.53 CM, a decline of 6.73% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased from 27.60 to 24.90 million tons, a decline of 9.78%; silicon wafer inventory decreased from 18.13 to 16.02 GM, a decline of 11.64%; polysilicon warehouse receipts remained at 2780 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The price of North China glass increased from 1160 to 1180 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.72%; the price of East China glass increased from 1240 to 1250 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.81%; the price of Central China glass increased from 1100 to 1130 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.73%; the price of South China glass remained at 1290 yuan/ton. The price of glass 2505 increased from 1240 to 1317 yuan/ton, with a rise of 6.21% [3]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The price of North China soda ash remained at 1350 yuan/ton; the price of East China soda ash remained at 1230 yuan/ton; the price of Central China soda ash remained at 1200 yuan/ton; the price of Northwest soda ash increased from 960 to 980 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.08%. The price of soda ash 2505 increased from 1306 to 1390 yuan/ton, with a rise of 6.43%; the price of soda ash 2509 increased from 1216 to 1295 yuan/ton, with a rise of 6.05% [3]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate increased from 81.32% to 84.10%, a rise of 3.42%; the weekly production of soda ash increased from 70.90 to 73.32 million tons, a rise of 3.41%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased from 15.84 to 15.78 million tons, a decline of 0.38%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased from 94390 to 91840 tons, a decline of 2.70% [3]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased from 6710.20 to 6493.90 ten - thousand standard boxes, a decline of 3.22%; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased from 186.34 to 190.56 million tons, a rise of 2.26%; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased from 23.80 to 24.66 million tons, a rise of 3.61%. The inventory days of soda ash in glass factories increased from 21.0 to 23.4 days, a rise of 11.34% [3]. Real Estate Data (Monthly) - The new construction area increased by 2.99% year - on - year; the construction area decreased by 7.56% year - on - year; the completion area increased by 15.67% year - on - year; the sales area increased by 12.13% year - on - year [3]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased from 14800 to 14850 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.34%; the whole - latex basis decreased from - 10 to - 45 yuan/ton, a decline of 350.00%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased from 14500 to 14550 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.34%; the non - standard price difference decreased from - 310 to - 345 yuan/ton, a decline of 11.29%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market increased from 48.60 to 49.30 Thai baht/kg, a rise of 1.44%; the FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market remained at 54.50 Thai baht/kg. The price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna remained at 12800 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna remained at 13400 yuan/ton. The mainstream market price of raw materials in Hainan increased from 13200 to 13300 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.7

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - As of July 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts volume was 11,204 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2507 contract was 18,761 tons, 2.6 times the delivery volume of LC2506. Among them, the volume of rolling delivery warehouse receipts was 13,884 tons, accounting for 74%, and the volume of transfer of futures to cash was 3,357 tons, accounting for 18% [4]. - In late June 2025, there was an opportunity for a "buy spot - sell 07" trade. The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts generally showed a positive spread trend, possibly related to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts [4]. - The futures market is relatively strong, causing the basis to weaken. Those with the ability to register warehouse receipts can appropriately participate in the "buy spot - sell 09" combination, and upstream hedgers can still participate in selling hedges at high prices. If the warehouse receipts do not increase significantly near the delivery date, there is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts. The "buy 08/09 - sell 11" positive spread combination can be held, and continuous attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts and timely profit - taking [4]. - Since May, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have been decreasing, and the enthusiasm for registering new warehouse receipts is low. With the mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of July, there is a high possibility of insufficient delivery warehouse receipts for the 08 and subsequent contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Delivery Information - As of July 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts volume was 11,204 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2507 contract was 18,761 tons, 2.6 times the delivery volume of LC2506. Delivery matching was mainly concentrated at the beginning of the month. Rolling delivery warehouse receipts volume was 13,884 tons (74%), one - time centralized delivery was 1,520 tons (8%), and transfer of futures to cash was 3,357 tons (18%) [7]. - The report lists the delivery volumes of various buyer and seller members. For example, among buyers, Guotai Junan Futures had a delivery volume of 6,025 tons, and among sellers, CITIC Futures had a delivery volume of 3,284 tons [8]. 3.2 Futures Warehouse Receipt Distribution - Since May, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have been decreasing, and low prices have not attracted new warehouse receipts registration. With the mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of July, if we assume that warehouse receipts registered after June 5 meet the conditions, only 2,028 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered from June 5 to July 16. There is a high possibility of insufficient delivery warehouse receipts for the 08 and subsequent contracts [12]. - The report details the warehouse receipt distribution in different regions and specific warehouses and factories, such as the warehouse receipts in warehouses like COSCO Shipping Zhenjiang and factories like Shengxin Lithium Energy (Suining) [12]. 3.3 Review of Basis and Inter - period Opportunities - About one month before the delivery of the 07 contract, the holding cost of lithium carbonate was about 1,277 yuan/ton (after offsetting margin with warehouse receipts, the futures capital cost can be saved). Starting from the end of June 2025, there was an opportunity for a "buy spot - sell futures" trade for those with the ability to register warehouse receipts. The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts generally showed a positive spread trend, possibly related to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts [16][18][19]. 3.4 Later Evaluation - The holding cost of the "buy spot - sell 09" combination is about 1,668 yuan/ton. The current spot - futures basis is below - 1,500. Those with the ability to register warehouse receipts can appropriately participate in the "buy spot - sell 09" combination [21]. - As of July 16, the exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts volume decreased to 10,655 tons. Due to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts and the warehouse receipt cancellation rule at the end of July, the risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts is expected to increase. If the warehouse receipts do not increase significantly near the delivery date, there is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 and subsequent contracts. The "buy 08/09 - sell 11" positive spread combination can be held, and continuous attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [25].

Core Viewpoint - A Shandong chemical trading company, established in 2015, has become a significant player in the spot trading market for chemical products like asphalt and methanol, facing challenges due to price volatility in recent years [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company operates primarily in the midstream sector, dealing with the risks associated with price fluctuations, which leads to significant profit volatility and challenges in achieving stable growth [1] - The company has developed a dedicated futures trading team with over 10 million yuan in trading capital, primarily focused on hedging risks related to asphalt production, but lacks expertise in methanol futures [1] Group 2: Risk Management Strategy - The company has adopted a basis arbitrage strategy to mitigate the impact of price volatility, successfully stabilizing its operations [1][2] - Understanding and analyzing basis risk is crucial for effective hedging operations, allowing the company to achieve better hedging outcomes and additional profits through low-risk arbitrage [2] Group 3: Recent Trading Activities - In October 2023, the company purchased approximately 6,700 tons of methanol at a fixed price of 2,365 yuan per ton, but faced risks due to unexpected price declines during the National Day holiday [2] - The company executed a hedging strategy by selling corresponding methanol futures contracts, locking in a basis of -111 yuan per ton, and later capitalized on price movements to achieve a profit of 61 yuan per ton [3] Group 4: Implementation and Scalability - The trading model employed by the company is designed to be accessible for small and medium-sized enterprises, ensuring that the strategy is practical and effective [4] - The flexible hedging model based on basis changes enhances operational efficiency for trading companies, allowing them to focus on basis levels rather than absolute prices, thus improving competitiveness and risk management [4]