- 铁合金日报|2024-12-25 【基本面分析】 2、硅铁现货：主产区 72 硅铁报 5900-6100，75 硅铁报 6250-6350 元/吨现金自然块 出厂，江苏某大型钢厂敲定硅铁采购价为 6538 元/吨承兑较上一轮跌 42 元/吨，云南曲靖 呈钢硅铁定价 6540 元/吨现金含税到厂。陕西兰炭小料 750-800 元/吨出厂，镁锭市价持 稳在 16000-16100 元/吨。铁合金在线统计，上周样本企业硅铁日产 15680 吨环比上期减 985 吨。 文华商品指数涨 0.48%收在 169.34，资金净流出 10.32 亿。黑色系涨跌分化，硅铁主 力收于 6242 涨 0.58%，资金流出 6376 万，减仓 11830 手，结算价 6246。技术上，日 K 收小阳线，KDJ 向下开口略微收窄，1 小时 K 线反弹但承压于 60 均线，短期跌势略缓。 2、核心逻辑： 3）宏观有小作文，商品整体反弹情绪。 铁合金日报 1、锰矿：锰矿现货报价承压，其中天津港半碳酸 33.2-33.5元/吨度，加蓬 37.5-38 元/吨度，澳块 41-41.5 元/吨度；钦州港半碳酸 34-35 元/吨度，加蓬块 ...

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon iron has decreased, with prices for 72 silicon iron blocks reported at 5900-6050 CNY/ton, and 75 silicon iron at 6350-6400 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week drop of 50-150 CNY[3] - The total silicon iron warehouse receipts increased by 7335 tons to 41640 tons, indicating a week-on-week rise of 2500 tons, while the forecast for receipts decreased to 0 tons[3] - The procurement price set by Hebei Steel for December is 6600 CNY/ton, which is higher than the inquiry price, suggesting a downward trend in pricing due to weak market fundamentals[3] Group 2: Manganese Silicon Market Analysis - Manganese silicon prices have also seen a decline, with 6517 manganese silicon reported at 5950-6000 CNY/ton in the north and 6000-6100 CNY/ton in the south, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 50-100 CNY[9] - The total manganese silicon warehouse receipts increased by 41380 tons to 343840 tons, indicating a week-on-week rise, while the demand from the five major steel types decreased by 0.48%[9] - The average operating rate for manganese silicon enterprises is reported at 45.03%, with a slight increase of 0.14% from the previous week, while daily production remains stable[9] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - Macro sentiment has released, leading to a return to weak market realities, with a focus on high-level hedging opportunities as the market remains under pressure[5] - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, with steel mills maintaining low inventory levels while enterprise inventories are slightly increasing, indicating a mismatch in supply and demand[5] - The steel industry is experiencing a decline in demand for silicon iron and manganese silicon, with expectations that this trend will continue into December[5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The price of silicon iron is reported at 5900-6050 CNY/ton for 72 silicon iron and 6350-6400 CNY/ton for 75 silicon iron, with slow procurement progress from downstream buyers[1] - The current inventory of silicon iron warehouse receipts is 7828, an increase of 567 from the previous trading day, with a total of 41640 tons, up 2500 tons[1] - Manganese silicon prices are reported at 6000-6100 CNY/ton in the north and 6050-6150 CNY/ton in the south, with a recent procurement of 4000 tons at 6380 CNY/ton[8] Group 2: Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The cost of silicon stone in Qinghai and Ningxia is between 180-230 CNY/ton, while the price of Shenfu Lan coal is 860-930 CNY/ton, indicating a downward price expectation[1] - The electricity price in Ningxia has decreased by 2 cents to 0.41-0.44 CNY/kWh, contributing to lower production costs for silicon iron[1] - The overall market sentiment shows a weak supply-demand balance, with rising inventories but low delivery and steel mill stocks[4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.56%, closing at 172.38, with a net capital inflow of 904 million CNY, while the main silicon iron contract closed at 6302, down 0.47%[2] - The technical indicators suggest a low-level wide fluctuation, with attention on support at integer levels and pressure near the 60-week moving average[3][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The expectation of lower coal prices is likely to reduce silicon iron costs, slightly narrowing industry losses[4] - The macroeconomic outlook remains strong, but the current spot prices are generally declining, indicating potential hedging opportunities at higher levels[4][11]

Group 1: Market Analysis - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts increased by 568 to 55,965, with forecast receipts rising by 2,232 to 9,607, totaling 327,860 tons, a week-on-week increase of 14,000 tons[5] - Silicon iron spot prices for 72 silicon iron natural blocks are reported at 5,900-6,050 CNY/ton, while 75 silicon iron is at 6,350-6,400 CNY/ton, with a recent procurement price of 6,600 CNY/ton for 75B silicon iron, up by 40 CNY/ton[2] - The overall market sentiment is cautious due to high supply levels and declining steel mill profitability, despite macroeconomic policy expectations boosting confidence[5] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The Wenhua Commodity Index rose by 0.06%, closing at 171.8, with a net capital inflow of 2.484 billion CNY, indicating a mixed performance in the black series[2] - The main contract for manganese silicon closed at 6,348 CNY, up 0.47%, with a capital outflow of 59.62 million CNY and a reduction of 11,848 contracts[6] - Technical analysis shows a small upward trend in the daily K-line, with KDJ lines indicating a weak golden cross, suggesting a potential short-term rebound[6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's total import and export value for the first 11 months reached 39.79 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with exports at 23.04 trillion CNY, up 6.7%[12] - The U.S. is expected to release November CPI data, with inflation anticipated to rise from 2.6% to 2.7%, and core CPI expected to remain between 3.2% and 3.3%[12] - The Asian Development Bank has downgraded growth forecasts for developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region from 5.0% to 4.9% for 2024, citing potential impacts from U.S. policy changes[12]

Group 1: Market Overview - The price of silicon iron has shown a slight decline, with the 75B silicon iron inquiry price at 6400 CNY/ton, down 150 CNY/ton from November[2] - The total inventory of silicon iron remains stable at 39,140 tons, with no significant changes in warehouse receipts[2] - The manganese silicon market has seen a price increase of 50-100 CNY/ton, with northern prices reported at 6050-66150 CNY/ton[5] Group 2: Cost and Supply Dynamics - The cost of silicon iron fluctuates between 5900-6400 CNY/ton, with many companies facing losses due to narrow cost margins[2] - Manganese ore prices have increased, with South32's January shipment price rising to 4.05 USD/ton, up 0.25 USD/ton[5] - Weekly supply and demand remain weak, with manufacturers slightly increasing inventory levels despite low delivery and steel mill stocks[2][5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index rose by 0.51%, with a net outflow of 4.045 billion CNY, indicating a general upward trend in the black series[2] - The main silicon iron contract closed at 6276 CNY, reflecting a 0.48% increase, while the settlement price was 6316 CNY[2] - The KDJ line is showing signs of a potential upward crossover, suggesting a possible short-term rebound in prices under strong macro expectations[6]

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon iron remains stable, with prices for silicon stone at 180-230 CNY/ton and carbonized coal at 890-940 CNY/ton[1] - Current spot prices for silicon iron are reported at 6000-6050 CNY/ton for 72 silicon iron and 6500-6600 CNY/ton for 75 silicon iron, with weak trading activity noted[1] - Silicon iron warehouse receipts decreased by 14 to 6601, with total receipts and forecasts down by 70 tons to 34230 tons, indicating low hedging interest[1] Group 2: Manganese Silicon Market Analysis - Manganese ore prices are stable, with semi-carbonate at 32.5-33 CNY/ton and Australian blocks at 42-43 CNY/ton, while shipments from South Africa, Australia, and Gabon decreased by 11.33 million tons week-on-week[8] - Manganese silicon prices increased by 30-80 CNY/ton, with northern regions reporting 6000-6100 CNY/ton and southern regions at 6100-6150 CNY/ton[8] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 47040, with total receipts at 258845 tons, indicating reduced hedging interest[8] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.82% to 171.92, with a net outflow of 1.555 billion CNY, primarily affecting the black series[2] - The main silicon iron contract closed at 6352 CNY, down 1.12%, with a reduction in positions by 6296 contracts[2] - The technical outlook shows a bearish trend with KDJ indicators narrowing, suggesting potential downward pressure[2] Group 4: Market Trends and Outlook - The market is expected to continue low-level fluctuations, with attention on support at integer levels and pressure near the 60-week moving average[3][10] - Supply-demand mismatches persist, with warehouse inventories declining but corporate inventories accumulating, indicating weak fundamental drivers[4][11] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with coal sector fluctuations and notable technical characteristics in silicon iron prices[4]

铁合金日报 - 【宏观情绪渐起，河钢锰硅定价 6280】 铁合金日报|2024-11-20 硅铁 【基本面分析】 1、成本端：青海、宁夏硅石到厂价 180-230 元/吨，神府兰炭小料 890-940 元/吨， 河北石家庄 70#氧化铁皮 1050-1090 元/吨，硅铁成本暂稳运行，产业亏损居多。 2、硅铁现货：72 硅铁自然块报 5900-6050 元/吨，75 报 6500-6700 元/吨现金含税出 厂，受金属镁价格持续下跌导致镁厂亏损加剧，75 硅铁跌幅明显。铁合金在线统计，上周 样本硅铁厂日产量 17005 吨环比增 20 吨，检修和复产工厂均有。 3、仓单变化：硅铁仓单 6798 张较上个交易日持平，预报 245 张较上个交易日持平， 仓单和预报合计 35215 吨环比上个交易日持平，产业套保意愿不高。 【技术分析】 文华商品指数收在 172.39 涨 0.94%，资金净流入 12.96 亿。黑色系反弹明显，硅铁主 力收在 6366 涨 0.41%，资金流出 1047 万，减仓 2123 手，结算价 6362。技术上，日 K 线 收小阳线并承压 60 日均线，KDJ 线交弱金叉后向上发散缓慢，1 ...

Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash opened at 1500 CNY/ton, peaked at 1538 CNY/ton, and closed at 1570 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly increase of 4.73%[4] - Soda ash production was 695,300 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons week-on-week, with a comprehensive capacity utilization rate of 83.41%, down by 1.79 percentage points[4] - Inventory levels rose to 1,648,100 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons week-on-week, while pending orders decreased to around 11 days[4] Fundamental Analysis - The current contradiction lies between strong macro pricing expectations and weak realities of high inventory and production capacity[4] - The domestic real estate cycle is suppressing demand for construction glass, impacting soda ash pricing expectations[4] - Despite a rigid demand for soda ash, new supply from projects like Yuxing Alkali and Jingshan is leading to oversupply, with additional capacity expected in 2025[4] Summary and Outlook - The market direction is expected to experience wide fluctuations[4] - Core logic indicates a continuous decline in downstream demand, making future oversupply difficult to reverse[4] - Risks include large-scale cold repairs in float glass production and underperformance of emerging downstream industries[4]

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The main cost range for silicon iron is between 6080-6200 CNY/ton, with increasing losses reported among producers[1] - Current spot prices for 72 silicon iron are reported at 5950-6050 CNY/ton, while 75 silicon iron is at 6600-6800 CNY/ton[1] - Hebei's procurement volume for November is 1500 tons, a decrease of 536 tons from October, indicating a potential shift in pricing strategy[1] Group 2: Market Trends and Technical Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed at 173.31, down 0.48%, with a net capital outflow of 1.924 billion CNY[2] - The main silicon iron futures contract closed at 6354 CNY, up 0.63%, with a reduction in open interest by 2788 contracts[2] - The market sentiment remains generally weak, with a focus on integer support levels and pressure near the 60-week moving average[3] Group 3: Manganese Silicon Market Insights - Manganese silicon prices range from 5930-6100 CNY/ton in the north and 6050-6150 CNY/ton in the south, with slight adjustments noted[5] - Hebei's procurement volume for manganese silicon in November is 12,300 tons, an increase of 300 tons from October, suggesting a potential market impact[5] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts increased by 1988 contracts, while forecast receipts decreased by 2793 contracts, indicating a mixed inventory outlook[5] Group 4: Macro Economic Indicators - The U.S. one-year inflation expectation for October has dropped to 2.87%, the lowest in four years, with a previous value of 3.00%[11] - The European Central Bank is expected to further cut interest rates, potentially reaching a neutral level in the first half of next year[11] - OPEC has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 to 1.82 million barrels per day, down from 1.93 million barrels per day previously[12]

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The current price range for 72 silicon iron is 6000-6100 CNY/ton, while 75 silicon iron is priced at 6600-6800 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly decline of 50-100 CNY/ton[4] - The cost of silicon iron production in major regions is approximately 6080 CNY/ton, with most enterprises operating at a loss[5] - The weekly supply of silicon iron is 116,800 tons, which is a 0.69% increase from the previous week, while demand has decreased by 2.29%[10] Group 2: Manganese Silicon Market Insights - The price for manganese silicon is reported at 6100-6150 CNY/ton in the north and 6150-6200 CNY/ton in the south, with a recent increase of 100-200 CNY/ton[12] - Manganese ore prices have slightly increased by 1.5-2 CNY/ton, with the current price at Tianjin Port being 33 CNY/ton for semi-carbonate[13] - The weekly supply of manganese silicon is 189,630 tons, which is a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, while demand has decreased by 1.46%[21] Group 3: Inventory and Production Trends - The total inventory of silicon iron warehouses has increased by 2,990 tons to 35,360 tons, indicating a growing supply[23] - Manganese silicon warehouse inventory has risen by 21,480 tons to 237,710 tons, suggesting a continued accumulation of stock[23] - The average operating rate for silicon iron enterprises is 39.89%, with a daily production of 16,685 tons, reflecting a slight increase[10] Group 4: Cost and Profitability Analysis - The production cost for silicon iron in Qinghai is 6,126.5 CNY/ton, with a loss of 26.5 CNY/ton, while costs in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are around 6,117.5 CNY/ton and 6,615.5 CNY/ton, respectively[6] - The average profit margin for manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 59.31 CNY/ton, while losses in southern regions remain significant[17]