Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank plans to lower the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions, indicating room for further reductions[1]. - The central bank will expand the re-lending scale for technological innovation from 500 billion yuan to between 800 billion and 1 trillion yuan[1]. Global Trade and Tariffs - President Trump signed an amendment to exempt products under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement from tariffs until April 2, while steel and aluminum tariffs remain unchanged[1]. European Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling a potential end to its easing cycle[1]. Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures closed higher, with energy and chemical products generally rising; LPG increased by 1.08% and rubber by 1.06%[1]. - Black commodities saw an overall increase, with coking coal up by 1.69% and coking coke by 1.04%[1]. - Agricultural products also rose, with palm oil increasing by 1.42%[1]. Global Asset Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $66.27, down 0.18% for the day and down 18.00% year-on-year[2]. - LME copper rose by 0.99% to $9,689.00, with an annual increase of 8.09%[2]. - COMEX gold decreased by 0.31% to $2,919.80, with a year-on-year increase of 33.73%[2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.17% to 3,381.10, with a year-on-year increase of 9.88%[2].

Macroeconomic Indicators - The GDP growth target for this year is set at around 5%[1] - The urban unemployment rate is expected to be around 5.5%, with over 12 million new urban jobs created[1] - The consumer price index is projected to rise by about 2%[1] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal deficit is planned at around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan[1] - Special government bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan and 500 billion yuan are proposed for issuance[1] - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential interest rate cuts to support the real estate and stock markets[1] Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures closed generally lower, with energy and chemical products showing weakness, e.g., styrene down 2.78% and low-sulfur fuel oil down 2.2%[2] - Most agricultural products declined, with soybean meal down 1.88% and rapeseed meal down 1.79%[2] Global Asset Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $77.13, down 2.74% for the day and down 7.43% year-to-date[3] - LME copper rose by 2.69% to $9,594.00, with a year-to-date increase of 9.42%[3] - The S&P 500 index closed at 5,845.50, down 1.52% year-to-date[3]

Trade and Tariff Developments - The Chinese government will impose a 15% tariff on certain U.S. imports including chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton starting March 10[1] - Canada announced a 25% retaliatory tariff on $30 billion CAD worth of U.S. imports, with an additional $125 billion CAD to follow in 21 days[1] - U.S. President Trump indicated that Canada’s tariffs would trigger equivalent tariffs from the U.S.[1] Export Controls and Agreements - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce added 15 U.S. entities, including Lidos, to its export control list, prohibiting dual-use item exports to them[1] - The U.S. and Ukraine are reportedly planning to sign a mineral agreement, with Trump expected to announce it during his congressional speech[2] Global Asset Performance - NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.63% to $68.04, with a year-over-year decline of 17.55%[3] - COMEX gold rose by 0.83% to $2928.20, showing a 35.51% increase year-over-year[3] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.22% to 5778.15, with an annual increase of 11.58%[3] Interest Rates and Economic Indicators - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut is currently at 91% for the 425-450 basis points range[3] - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is at 1.71%, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 24.94%[3]

Macro Events - The National People's Congress (NPC) will convene on March 5, 2025, with key agendas including discussions on government work reports and political resolutions[1] - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, with Canada planning to retaliate with tariffs on $155 billion worth of U.S. goods[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for February is at 50.3, slightly below expectations of 50.5, marking the highest level since June 2022[2] - The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for February is at 47.6, exceeding expectations of 47.3, while Germany's PMI reached 46.5, the highest since January 2023[2] Commodity Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $68.47, down 2.12% for the day and down 16.71% year-on-year[3] - COMEX gold closed at $2904.10, up 1.28% for the day and up 34.21% year-on-year[3] Stock Market Trends - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 43191.24, down 1.48% for the day and up 11.35% year-on-year[3] - The Nasdaq Composite closed at 18350.19, down 2.64% for the day and up 13.95% year-on-year[3] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.16%, down 0.08% for the day and down 0.18% year-on-year[3] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 3.96%, down 0.03% for the day and down 0.58% year-on-year[3]

Macro Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve's Harker indicated that interest rates may remain unchanged for "some time," with current stock market valuations at high levels, seeking evidence of inflation moving towards 2% before considering further rate cuts; overall financial conditions are currently loose[1] - The European Central Bank's minutes show progress in anti-inflation efforts, with inflation expected to remain above target in the near term; risks from energy and food price increases, a strong labor market, and high wage negotiations necessitate caution, with evidence suggesting an upward adjustment in risk balance since December[1] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association forecasts a 35.9% year-on-year growth in global new photovoltaic installations for 2024, but a sharp decline to 10% growth in 2025; China, as the largest single market, may see its new installations decline for the first time in history by 8.13% to 22.54% in 2025[1] Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly higher, with energy and chemical products rising across the board; soda ash up 2.29%, crude oil up 1.62%, and fuel oil up 1.45%[2] - Major agricultural products saw increases, with soybean one up 1.32% and soybean oil up 1.04%[2] - The NYMEX crude oil closed at $70.13, reflecting a daily increase of 1.90% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.51%[2] - The COMEX gold price closed at $2887.80, down 1.50% for the day but up 33.29% year-on-year[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3388.06, with a daily increase of 0.23% and a year-on-year increase of 11.51%[2]

2、美国总统特朗普表示，乌克兰总统泽连斯基将于2月28日访问美国首都华盛顿特区，美 乌将签署关于稀土等方面的协议。乌克兰总理什梅加尔宣布，乌政府批准与美国签署矿产 框架协议。 3、美国总统特朗普表示，"美国不会在结束俄乌冲突的协议中为乌克兰提供安全保障，但 欧洲会这样做"。他还称，乌克兰"可以忘掉"加入北约。特朗普表示，他计划接待乌克 兰总统泽连斯基访美，并希望美国与俄罗斯进行更多会谈。 宏观大类资产日报:2025-02-27 作者：李魁 Z号：Z0017255 F号：F3077815 一、宏观要点关注 1、美国总统特朗普在内阁会议上表示，美国将从4月2日起对进口自墨西哥的商品和进口自 加拿大的非能源类商品征收25%的关税。特朗普还表示，预计将很快宣布对欧盟输美商品加 征关税；可能会征收25%的关税，这将适用于汽车和所有其他物品。 | | | | 二、全球大类资产表现一览表 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大类资产 | 指标 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 周同比 | 月同比 | 年同比 | | | NYMEX原油 | 68.82 | - ...

Macro Economic Insights - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the 10-year Treasury yield should "naturally" decline, emphasizing the need for economic "privatization" through tariffs aimed at increasing industrial capacity and job creation[1] - Trump announced that Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to visit the U.S. for an agreement, while Russia demands Ukraine's military surrender and territorial concessions as conditions for a ceasefire[1] - Copper prices surged over 3% as Trump ordered an investigation into U.S. copper imports, indicating potential tariffs due to national security concerns[1] Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly lower, with crude oil down 2.19% and glass down 2.16%[2] - Basic metals saw declines, with aluminum down 1.21% and stainless steel down 0.91%[2] - Agricultural products also fell, with soybean meal down 1.34% and vegetable oil down 1.09%[2] Global Asset Performance Overview - NYMEX crude oil closed at $69.12, down 2.52% daily and 11.42% year-on-year[4] - LME copper closed at $9,395.00, down 1.13% daily but up 8.63% year-on-year[4] - COMEX gold closed at $2,928.60, down 1.36% daily but up 35.34% year-on-year[4] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is at 1.75%, down 0.57% daily and down 25.31% year-on-year[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.40%, down 0.02% daily and up 0.30% year-on-year[4] - The China-U.S. interest rate differential stands at -2.65, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01%[4] Currency and Forex Trends - The U.S. Dollar Index is at 106.28, down 0.36% daily and up 3.25% year-on-year[4] - The offshore RMB is trading at 7.25 against the U.S. dollar, showing a minor increase of 0.01%[4] - The Euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate is at 1.05, up 0.44% daily but down 3.77% year-on-year[4]

宏观大类资产日报:2025-02-25 作者：李魁 Z号：Z0017255 F号：F3077815 一、宏观要点关注 1、国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍进一步深化农村改革，扎实推进乡村全面振兴有关情况。 中央农办主任韩文秀表示，农业农村是新质生产力发展的沃土。现代生物技术、人工智能 、低空经济等在农业农村领域有广阔的发展前景。中央农办副主任祝卫东表示，今年中央 一号文件从生产、消费、贸易等方面，打出政策"组合拳"，促进粮食等农产品价格企稳 回升，保护农民务农种粮积极性。 2、中概股表现疲软，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌5.24%，万得中概科技龙头指数跌6.77%。热 门中概股方面，小马智行跌超20%，老虎证券跌逾13%，万国数据跌超11%，金山云跌逾 10%，阿里巴巴跌超10%，哔哩哔哩跌逾10%，腾讯音乐跌近10%。 3、国内商品期货夜盘收盘普遍下跌，能源化工品多数下跌，燃油跌1.95%，玻璃跌1.58%， 20号胶涨1.67%。黑色系全线下跌，焦炭跌1.32%，焦煤跌1.21%。农产品多数下跌，菜粕跌 1.41%，棕榈油跌1.19%。基本金属多数收跌，沪锌跌1.44%，沪锡跌1.13%，沪铝跌0.65%， 沪镍跌0 ...

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon iron has decreased by 50-180 RMB/ton due to lower raw material prices and reduced electricity costs in Inner Mongolia[1][17][18] - The current cash price for 72 silicon iron is reported at 5800-6000 RMB/ton, while 75 silicon iron is at 6150-6300 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 50-100 RMB[1][2] - The total inventory of silicon iron has decreased by 3710 tons, with a current total of 95435 tons in warehouse and forecasted inventory combined[1][3] Group 2: Manganese Silicon Market Insights - Manganese ore inventory remains low with high demand, influenced by production cuts from Australian suppliers due to tropical cyclone Zelia, affecting an estimated 150,000-170,000 tons[7][30] - The cash price for manganese silicon is stable at 6200-6400 RMB/ton in the south and 6200-6300 RMB/ton in the north, with a slight week-on-week decline[7][8] - Manganese silicon warehouse inventory has increased by 3935 tons, totaling 471040 tons, indicating a shift in supply dynamics[7][10] Group 3: Technical and Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed up 0.02% at 172.05, with a net capital inflow of 1.938 billion RMB[2] - The technical analysis indicates a potential downward trend for silicon iron, with a focus on the 6000 RMB support level and the 60-week moving average as resistance[3][55] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a focus on macroeconomic expectations as the Two Sessions approach, which may influence trading strategies[4][10]

Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample to match economic growth and price level expectations[2] - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy[2] Global Economic Developments - President Trump signed a memorandum introducing reciprocal tariffs, indicating that goods shipped through other countries to evade tariffs will not be accepted[2] - Tariffs on automobiles, steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals are expected to be implemented soon, potentially leading to short-term price increases[2] Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly lower, with energy and chemical products declining; glass fell by 3.45% and crude oil by 2.08%[3] - Agricultural products showed mixed results, with rapeseed meal rising by 1.77% and soybean meal by 1.48%[3] Global Asset Performance Overview - NYMEX crude oil closed at $71.51, with a daily increase of 0.42% but a yearly decrease of 8.67%[4] - COMEX gold rose to $2957.20, reflecting a 44.06% increase year-on-year[4] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.42%, while the Nasdaq Index increased by 1.50%[4] Bond Market Trends - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is at 1.63%, down by 0.14%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stands at 4.52%, with a slight decrease of 0.10%[4] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. Dollar Index is at 107.06, down by 0.88%[4] - The exchange rate of the U.S. Dollar to offshore RMB is 7.27, reflecting a decrease of 0.54%[4]