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融达期货宏观日报0307
宏观大类资产日报:2025-03-07 。 4、国内商品期货夜盘收盘普遍上涨,能源化工品多数上涨,LPG涨1.08%,丁二烯橡胶涨 1.06%,橡胶、20号胶涨近1%。黑色系全线上涨,焦煤涨1.69%,焦炭涨1.04%。农产品普遍 上涨,棕榈油涨1.42%。基本金属全线收涨,沪锡涨2.13%,沪镍涨1.45%,沪铜涨1.4%,沪 锌涨1.05%,不锈钢涨0.75%,沪铅涨0.69%,沪铝涨0.5%。沪金涨0.17%,沪银涨0.75%。 | | | | 二、全球大类资产表现一览表 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大类资产 | 指标 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 周同比 | 月同比 | 年同比 | | | NYMEX原油 | 66.27 | -0.18% | -5.26% | -6.74% | -18.00% | | | LME铜 | 9689.00 | 0.99% | 3.50% | 2.64% | 8.09% | | | LME铝 | 2703.00 | 1.35% | 3.80% | 2.85% | 17.06% | | | COME ...
融达期货宏观日报——0306
宏观大类资产日报:2025-03-06 | | | | | MEETING DATE 200-225 225-250 250-275 275-300 300-325 325-350 350-375 375-400 400-425 425-450 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/3/19 | | | | | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | | 7.0% 93.0% | | 2025/5/7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 38.2% | 59.2% | | 2025/6/18 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 24.6% | 51.2% | 22.7% | | 2025/7/30 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 8.5% | 32.5% | ...
融达期货宏观日报0305
Trade and Tariff Developments - The Chinese government will impose a 15% tariff on certain U.S. imports including chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton starting March 10[1] - Canada announced a 25% retaliatory tariff on $30 billion CAD worth of U.S. imports, with an additional $125 billion CAD to follow in 21 days[1] - U.S. President Trump indicated that Canada’s tariffs would trigger equivalent tariffs from the U.S.[1] Export Controls and Agreements - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce added 15 U.S. entities, including Lidos, to its export control list, prohibiting dual-use item exports to them[1] - The U.S. and Ukraine are reportedly planning to sign a mineral agreement, with Trump expected to announce it during his congressional speech[2] Global Asset Performance - NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.63% to $68.04, with a year-over-year decline of 17.55%[3] - COMEX gold rose by 0.83% to $2928.20, showing a 35.51% increase year-over-year[3] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.22% to 5778.15, with an annual increase of 11.58%[3] Interest Rates and Economic Indicators - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut is currently at 91% for the 425-450 basis points range[3] - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is at 1.71%, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 24.94%[3]
融达期货宏观日报0304
4、欧佩克+将按计划于4月增产,到2026年逐步取消每日220万桶减产。受增产消息影响, 美油盘中跌破68美元/桶。 宏观大类资产日报:2025-03-04 一、宏观要点关注 1、2025年全国两会即将启幕。全国政协十四届三次会议将于3月4日下午3时开幕,3月10日 上午闭幕,会期6天。大会主要议程包括:听取和审议全国政协常委会工作报告和提案工作 情况报告;列席十四届全国人大三次会议,听取并讨论政府工作报告以及其他有关报告; 审议通过全国政协十四届三次会议政治决议等。十四届全国人大三次会议将于3月5日开 幕,3月4日12时举行新闻发布会,大会发言人就大会议程和人大工作相关问题回答中外记 者提问。 2、美国总统特朗普表示,4月2日将对进口农产品加征关税,美国农产品将在美国国内销售 。特朗普还宣布,台积电计划在美国进行1000亿美元的投资,大部分投资将在亚利桑那州 进行。特朗普表示,美国将于3月4日对加拿大和墨西哥加征25%的关税,并称与这两个美国 盟友已没有谈判空间。加拿大外交部长回应称,准备对价值1550亿加元的美国商品征收关 税。除此之外,特朗普还表示,美国将从4月2日起采取对等关税,同时将对那些采取货币 ...
融达期货宏观日报0228
宏观大类资产日报:2025-02-28 作者:李魁 Z号:Z0017255 F号:F3077815 一、宏观要点关注 1、美联储哈马克表示,美联储可能会在"相当一段时间"内维持利率不变;当前股票市场 估值处于高位;在支持进一步降息之前寻求通胀向2%迈进的证据;目前广泛的金融状况是 宽松的。 2、欧洲央行会议纪要显示,抗通胀进程进展顺利,预计近期通胀仍将保持在目标之上;高 度不确定性、持续存在的能源和食品价格上涨风险、强劲的劳动市场以及高额的工资谈判 增加都需要保持谨慎;通胀前景面临的风险被视为双向的;一些证据表明,自去年十二月 以来,风险平衡出现向上调整的迹象。 3、中国光伏行业协会名誉理事长王勃华在行业年度研讨会上表示,2024年全球光伏新增装 机预计同比增长35.9%,但2025年增速将骤降至10%;而中国作为最大单一市场,2025年新 增装机量或出现历史首次同比下滑,降幅可能达8.13%-22.54%。 4、国内商品期货夜盘收盘多数上涨,能源化工品全线上涨,纯碱涨2.29%,原油涨1.62%, 燃油涨1.45%,20号胶涨1.45%,低硫燃料油涨1.29%,LPG涨1.16%。黑色系涨跌不一。农产 品多 ...
融达期货宏观日报0227
2、美国总统特朗普表示,乌克兰总统泽连斯基将于2月28日访问美国首都华盛顿特区,美 乌将签署关于稀土等方面的协议。乌克兰总理什梅加尔宣布,乌政府批准与美国签署矿产 框架协议。 3、美国总统特朗普表示,"美国不会在结束俄乌冲突的协议中为乌克兰提供安全保障,但 欧洲会这样做"。他还称,乌克兰"可以忘掉"加入北约。特朗普表示,他计划接待乌克 兰总统泽连斯基访美,并希望美国与俄罗斯进行更多会谈。 宏观大类资产日报:2025-02-27 作者:李魁 Z号:Z0017255 F号:F3077815 一、宏观要点关注 1、美国总统特朗普在内阁会议上表示,美国将从4月2日起对进口自墨西哥的商品和进口自 加拿大的非能源类商品征收25%的关税。特朗普还表示,预计将很快宣布对欧盟输美商品加 征关税;可能会征收25%的关税,这将适用于汽车和所有其他物品。 | | | | 二、全球大类资产表现一览表 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大类资产 | 指标 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 周同比 | 月同比 | 年同比 | | | NYMEX原油 | 68.82 | - ...
融达期货宏观日报0226
Macro Economic Insights - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the 10-year Treasury yield should "naturally" decline, emphasizing the need for economic "privatization" through tariffs aimed at increasing industrial capacity and job creation[1] - Trump announced that Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to visit the U.S. for an agreement, while Russia demands Ukraine's military surrender and territorial concessions as conditions for a ceasefire[1] - Copper prices surged over 3% as Trump ordered an investigation into U.S. copper imports, indicating potential tariffs due to national security concerns[1] Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly lower, with crude oil down 2.19% and glass down 2.16%[2] - Basic metals saw declines, with aluminum down 1.21% and stainless steel down 0.91%[2] - Agricultural products also fell, with soybean meal down 1.34% and vegetable oil down 1.09%[2] Global Asset Performance Overview - NYMEX crude oil closed at $69.12, down 2.52% daily and 11.42% year-on-year[4] - LME copper closed at $9,395.00, down 1.13% daily but up 8.63% year-on-year[4] - COMEX gold closed at $2,928.60, down 1.36% daily but up 35.34% year-on-year[4] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is at 1.75%, down 0.57% daily and down 25.31% year-on-year[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.40%, down 0.02% daily and up 0.30% year-on-year[4] - The China-U.S. interest rate differential stands at -2.65, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01%[4] Currency and Forex Trends - The U.S. Dollar Index is at 106.28, down 0.36% daily and up 3.25% year-on-year[4] - The offshore RMB is trading at 7.25 against the U.S. dollar, showing a minor increase of 0.01%[4] - The Euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate is at 1.05, up 0.44% daily but down 3.77% year-on-year[4]
融达期货宏观日报0225
宏观大类资产日报:2025-02-25 作者:李魁 Z号:Z0017255 F号:F3077815 一、宏观要点关注 1、国新办举行新闻发布会,介绍进一步深化农村改革,扎实推进乡村全面振兴有关情况。 中央农办主任韩文秀表示,农业农村是新质生产力发展的沃土。现代生物技术、人工智能 、低空经济等在农业农村领域有广阔的发展前景。中央农办副主任祝卫东表示,今年中央 一号文件从生产、消费、贸易等方面,打出政策"组合拳",促进粮食等农产品价格企稳 回升,保护农民务农种粮积极性。 2、中概股表现疲软,纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌5.24%,万得中概科技龙头指数跌6.77%。热 门中概股方面,小马智行跌超20%,老虎证券跌逾13%,万国数据跌超11%,金山云跌逾 10%,阿里巴巴跌超10%,哔哩哔哩跌逾10%,腾讯音乐跌近10%。 3、国内商品期货夜盘收盘普遍下跌,能源化工品多数下跌,燃油跌1.95%,玻璃跌1.58%, 20号胶涨1.67%。黑色系全线下跌,焦炭跌1.32%,焦煤跌1.21%。农产品多数下跌,菜粕跌 1.41%,棕榈油跌1.19%。基本金属多数收跌,沪锌跌1.44%,沪锡跌1.13%,沪铝跌0.65%, 沪镍跌0 ...
融达期货铁合金周报-2月钢招明朗且钢厂库存下降,关注宏观预期变化
Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon iron has decreased by 50-180 RMB/ton due to lower raw material prices and reduced electricity costs in Inner Mongolia[1][17][18] - The current cash price for 72 silicon iron is reported at 5800-6000 RMB/ton, while 75 silicon iron is at 6150-6300 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 50-100 RMB[1][2] - The total inventory of silicon iron has decreased by 3710 tons, with a current total of 95435 tons in warehouse and forecasted inventory combined[1][3] Group 2: Manganese Silicon Market Insights - Manganese ore inventory remains low with high demand, influenced by production cuts from Australian suppliers due to tropical cyclone Zelia, affecting an estimated 150,000-170,000 tons[7][30] - The cash price for manganese silicon is stable at 6200-6400 RMB/ton in the south and 6200-6300 RMB/ton in the north, with a slight week-on-week decline[7][8] - Manganese silicon warehouse inventory has increased by 3935 tons, totaling 471040 tons, indicating a shift in supply dynamics[7][10] Group 3: Technical and Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed up 0.02% at 172.05, with a net capital inflow of 1.938 billion RMB[2] - The technical analysis indicates a potential downward trend for silicon iron, with a focus on the 6000 RMB support level and the 60-week moving average as resistance[3][55] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a focus on macroeconomic expectations as the Two Sessions approach, which may influence trading strategies[4][10]
融达期货宏观日报-2.14
Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample to match economic growth and price level expectations[2] - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy[2] Global Economic Developments - President Trump signed a memorandum introducing reciprocal tariffs, indicating that goods shipped through other countries to evade tariffs will not be accepted[2] - Tariffs on automobiles, steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals are expected to be implemented soon, potentially leading to short-term price increases[2] Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly lower, with energy and chemical products declining; glass fell by 3.45% and crude oil by 2.08%[3] - Agricultural products showed mixed results, with rapeseed meal rising by 1.77% and soybean meal by 1.48%[3] Global Asset Performance Overview - NYMEX crude oil closed at $71.51, with a daily increase of 0.42% but a yearly decrease of 8.67%[4] - COMEX gold rose to $2957.20, reflecting a 44.06% increase year-on-year[4] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.42%, while the Nasdaq Index increased by 1.50%[4] Bond Market Trends - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is at 1.63%, down by 0.14%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stands at 4.52%, with a slight decrease of 0.10%[4] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. Dollar Index is at 107.06, down by 0.88%[4] - The exchange rate of the U.S. Dollar to offshore RMB is 7.27, reflecting a decrease of 0.54%[4]