脚达期货 【市场动态】 【基本面分析】 【总结】 联储议息决议在即,降息预期中盘面以反映宏观为主 1、11月7日，央行进行192亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.50%，与 此前持平。因当日有3276亿元7天期逆回购到期，实现净回笼3084亿元。 2、11月7日，全国主流市场不锈钢89仓库口径社会总库存98.2万吨,周 环比下降1.91%。其中冷轧不锈钢库存总量64.53万吨，周环比下降 2.60%,热轧不锈钢库存总量33.67万吨,周环比下降0.56%。 作者: 罗蜡 不锈钢分析师 从业资格证号:F3066154 交易咨询证号: Z0016736 3、11月7日,SS2412单日成交量99140手(-27500手)，持仓量76948手 (-4280手）; 上期所注册仓单量108861吨（+0 吨）。 邮 箱: luoj@hrrdqh.com 1、成本端：高镍铁价格承压运行，工厂报价有1030元/镍低价,高铬价 格有破8000趋势,304冷轧生产成本当前约在13800元/吨左右,现货成本 小幅倒挂。 电话: 18896993457 2、供需情况:现货需求端基本无变化,但钢厂仍维持高排产状态,且交 割库仓单量 ...

Market Dynamics - The market in Cangzhou received over 30 trucks of goods, with acceptable spot transactions and slight price adjustments[2] - In Aksu and Alar, a small amount of jujubes has been harvested, but large-scale purchases have not yet occurred, with prices around 6-6.8 CNY/kg for Aksu and 7 CNY/kg for Alar[2] - The jujube market is experiencing fluctuations as it awaits guidance on centralized purchase prices, with a generally positive macro sentiment[2] Fundamental Analysis - The new season's jujube production is expected to increase, indicating a recovery in supply[3] - The seasonal peak is approaching, leading to faster movement of goods downstream[3] - Farmers are holding firm on prices as the new season jujubes are harvested in small quantities[3] Technical Analysis - The main jujube futures contract (CJ2501) reached a high of 10,425 CNY/ton and a low of 10,230 CNY/ton, closing at 10,385 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton from the previous settlement[4] - The trading volume was 101,985 contracts, with an open interest of 97,310 contracts, indicating active market participation[4] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish trend with increasing momentum above the zero axis[4] Summary and Recommendations - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations; downstream clients are advised to purchase based on needs, while upstream clients should focus on raw material procurement[5] - Key logic includes the onset of the autumn-winter peak season and a recovery in production levels[5] - Risk factors include monitoring purchasing policies in production areas[5]

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon iron raw materials ranges from 180-230 CNY/ton for silicon stone and 890-940 CNY/ton for coal, with electricity prices showing mixed trends in October[1] - Current spot prices for silicon iron are reported at 6000-6100 CNY/ton for 72 silicon iron and 6600-6800 CNY/ton for 75 silicon iron, with some companies waiting for market stabilization[1] - Silicon iron warehouse receipts increased by 1216 to a total of 6246, while pre-receipts decreased by 1168, indicating a net increase of 240 tons in total warehouse receipts[1] Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed at 176.51, up 0.84%, with a net capital inflow of 5.345 billion CNY[2] - The main silicon iron futures contract closed at 6464 CNY, up 1.16%, with a settlement price of 6436 CNY and a reduction in open interest by 2985 contracts[2] - The market sentiment is influenced by macroeconomic expectations, with limited impact from fundamental factors[3] Group 3: Manganese Silicon Market Insights - Manganese ore prices are on the rise, with transactions at 32.5-33 CNY/ton for semi-carbonate at Tianjin Port and 38.5-39 CNY/ton for Gabon[5] - Current spot prices for manganese silicon range from 6000-6150 CNY/ton in the north and 6100-6200 CNY/ton in the south, with November steel procurement prices concentrated around 6300-6450 CNY/ton[5] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts increased by 3469 to a total of 39179, while pre-receipts decreased by 3072, resulting in a net increase of 1985 tons[5] Group 4: Market Trends and Projections - The market is expected to experience low-level wide fluctuations, with attention on integer support levels and pressure near the 60-week moving average[7] - The demand for silicon iron has slightly decreased, while the overall market remains influenced by macroeconomic conditions and capital inflows[8]

Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash opened at 1550 CNY/ton and closed at 1517 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.69%[1] - Trading volume increased by 351,000 contracts to 1.637 million contracts, while open interest rose by 19,000 contracts to 1.238 million contracts[1] Fundamental Analysis - There is a contradiction between strong macro pricing expectations and weak realities of high inventory and production capacity[1] - The demand for soda ash remains rigid, with float glass and photovoltaic daily melting maintaining high levels, although some production cuts have begun[1] - New production capacities from projects like Yuansheng Alkali and Jingshan are contributing to supply surplus, with additional capacities expected to come online by 2025[1] Summary - The market direction is expected to be wide fluctuations[1] - Core logic indicates continuous decline in downstream demand, making future supply surplus difficult to reverse[1] - Risk factors include large-scale cold repairs in float glass production and underperformance of emerging downstream industries[1]

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon stone in Qinghai and Ningxia ranges from 180 to 230 CNY/ton, while the price of Shenfu Lan coal is between 890 and 940 CNY/ton[2] - The current spot price for 72 silicon iron is reported at 6050-6150 CNY/ton, and for 75 silicon iron at 6650-6800 CNY/ton[2] - The average daily production of silicon iron from 120 surveyed plants is 16,785 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 170 tons, and November production is expected to exceed 500,000 tons[2] Group 2: Manganese Silicon Market Analysis - Manganese ore prices continue to rise, with half-carbonate at Tianjin Port quoted at 33-34 CNY/ton, and Gabon at 38 CNY/ton[3] - The spot price for manganese silicon 6517 is reported at 6000-6150 CNY/ton in the north and 6050-6150 CNY/ton in the south, reflecting a general increase of 50 CNY[3] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts increased by 1,579 to a total of 34,456 receipts, with a combined total of 226,230 tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 8,900 tons[3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The Wenhua Commodity Index rose by 0.41% to 175.17, with a net capital inflow of 3.941 billion CNY[2] - The main contract for silicon iron closed at 6436 CNY, up 0.06%, with a capital inflow of 620,000 CNY and an increase of 1,431 contracts[2] - The market sentiment for silicon iron is generally cautious, with a focus on integer support levels and pressure near the 60-week moving average[2] Group 4: Macro Economic Indicators - The logistics industry prosperity index for October is reported at 52.6%, indicating continued growth in demand and an increase of 0.2% month-on-month[8] - The Caixin Services PMI for October recorded at 52.0, up 1.7 percentage points from September, marking a three-month high[8] - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI for October improved to 46.0, indicating a slowdown in the contraction rate, although still below the neutral mark of 50[9]

前保 【宏观消息频出,双硅期现震荡收敛】 硅铁 【基本面分析】 1、成本端:青海、宁夏硅石到厂价 180-230 元/吨,神府兰炭小料 890-940 元/吨暂 稳,河北石家庄 70#氧化铁皮 1030-1070 元/吨涨 50 元/吨,关注 11 月结算电价变化。 2、硅铁现货:72 硅铁自然块报 6050-6200元/吨,75 报 6700-6800 元/吨现金含税 出厂。11 月钢招已展开,本周定价集中在 6750-6850 元/吨承兑到厂,河钢尚未启动 11 月招标。近期主产区复产和检修均有,但总体产量仍有回升空间。 3、仓单变化:硅铁仓单 4898 张较上个交易日增 101 张,预报 1576 张较上个交易日 增加 399 张,仓单和预报合计 32370 吨环比上个交易日增加2500 吨,仓单和预报增加中。 【技术分析】 文华商品指数收盘 174.78 涨 0.34%,资金净流入 25.46 亿。黑色系震荡下行,硅铁 主力收在 6504 跌 0.52%,资金流出 2172 万,减仓 2788 手,结算价 6478。技术上,日 K 线收小阳线，KDJ 线向下且开口收窄，1 小时 K 线震荡胶着中重心下 ...

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The current price range for 72 silicon iron is 6150-6350 CNY/ton, while 75 silicon iron is priced at 6700-6900 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly decline of 50-100 CNY/ton[6] - The cost of silicon iron has decreased by 50-60 CNY/ton, leading to an expansion of industry losses, particularly in regions like Gansu and Shaanxi[8] - The weekly supply of silicon iron has increased by 3.93%, while demand has only risen by 2.18%, indicating a mismatch in supply and demand[15] Group 2: Manganese Silicon Market Analysis - The current price for 6517 manganese silicon ranges from 5950-6100 CNY/ton, with a slight weekly decrease of 150 CNY/ton[3] - Manganese silicon supply has increased by 4.79% week-on-week, while demand has only increased by 1.63%, suggesting a shift from a previous supply-demand mismatch to an expanding gap[16] - The average operating rate for manganese silicon enterprises is reported at 43.97%, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.07%[16] Group 3: Inventory and Warehouse Changes - Silicon iron warehouse receipts have decreased by 4520 tons to a total of 39975 tons, indicating ongoing destocking[27] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts have decreased by 50855 tons, totaling 584000 tons, suggesting a shift towards a more balanced inventory situation[27] - Steel mills' silicon iron inventory days have decreased to 14.53 days, indicating a low inventory level[15]

Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts may be less than expected, as indicated by Governor Christopher Waller[6] - From October 7 to October 13, the total signed area of new residential properties in 10 key cities was 2.0345 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%[6] - In the same period, the total signed area of second-hand homes in these cities was 1.7816 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 9%[6] Steel Market Analysis - On October 15, Hebei steel mills raised the procurement price of coking coal by 50-55 CNY/ton, effective immediately[6] - The trading volume of SS2412 on October 15 was 123,000 lots, a decrease of 26,738 lots, while the open interest increased by 2,911 lots[6] - The production cost of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel is approximately 13,800 CNY/ton, with upstream nickel-iron producers facing losses[6] Supply and Demand Insights - The crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills in September was 3.2888 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.09%[6] - The expected output for October is 3.244 million tons, indicating a sustained high production state[6] - The current inventory levels remain relatively high, with warehouse receipts increasing despite good transaction volumes[6] Investment Strategy - The macroeconomic disturbances are causing increased volatility in the market, suggesting a strategy of selling high in the physical market while participating in speculative trading[6] - The core logic indicates that macroeconomic factors currently outweigh the fundamentals, and the effects of policies will require time to validate[6]

Market Overview - The main red date futures contract closed at 9600 CNY/ton, down 565 CNY/ton from the previous week, with a trading volume of 71,031 contracts, a decrease of 4,247 contracts[5] - The overall inventory of red dates is lower compared to previous years, indicating a continuous destocking trend[2] - The new season dates are entering the drying phase, benefiting from favorable weather conditions[2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The arrival of red dates in the Cangzhou market is stable at around 30 trucks, but has slowed compared to the pre-Mid-Autumn Festival peak[3] - The expected yield in mainstream date orchards in Aksu and Alar regions is projected to reach 800-900 kg per mu[3] - Current purchasing prices from farmers are lower than last year, leading to a negotiation process between farmers and merchants[3] Price Trends and Technical Analysis - The fruit index has slightly declined, reflecting a weakening macro sentiment, which has impacted the red date market[3] - The fruit price index is reported at 121.24, maintaining stability, while the gray date index has decreased[7] - The market is advised to observe the pressure at the 10,000 CNY/ton level for the 2501 contract[6] Strategic Recommendations - Investment clients should adopt a range-bound trading strategy, while downstream merchants are encouraged to purchase as needed[6] - Upstream clients should focus on raw material procurement and consider hedging based on acquisition costs[3] Risk Factors - Investors should pay attention to potential purchasing policies from production areas, which could significantly influence the market[6]

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon iron has increased by 50-150 CNY/ton across most production areas, significantly compressing production profits[3] - Current spot prices for 72 silicon iron range from 6200 to 6400 CNY/ton, while 75 silicon iron is priced between 6800 and 7000 CNY/ton[3] - Weekly supply of silicon iron has increased by 2.47%, outpacing a 2.03% increase in demand, leading to a slight widening of the supply-demand gap[12] Group 2: Manganese Silicon Market Insights - Manganese silicon prices are reported at 6100-6200 CNY/ton, with a decrease in steel tender prices from 6600 CNY/ton to 6400-6450 CNY/ton[4] - The profitability of 247 steel mills has risen to 71.43%, a 33.77% increase from the previous period, indicating strong demand for manganese silicon[18] - Manganese ore prices have shown a downward trend, with South32's South African semi-carbonate block reported at 3.7 USD/ton, down 0.3 USD/ton from October[4] Group 3: Inventory and Production Trends - Silicon iron warehouse receipts have decreased by 5660 tons to a total of 44495 tons, indicating a continued reduction in inventory levels[20] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts have increased by 9020 tons, totaling 634855 tons, suggesting a buildup in inventory despite a slight decrease in production[20] - The average operating rate of independent silicon iron enterprises is reported at 39.06%, with a daily production of 15985 tons, reflecting a slight increase in output[12]