Market Dynamics - The Cangzhou market received nearly 30 trucks of goods, primarily from Xinjiang, with prices stable and Guangzhou receiving 2 trucks, leading to a slowdown in transactions[2] - The new season's production is expected to increase, with mainstream jujube orchards in Aksu and Alar regions yielding 800-900 kg per mu[2] - The harvest period is anticipated to begin at the end of October, approximately one week earlier than last year, with the frost date on October 23[2] Fundamental Analysis - The new season's jujube production is showing a recovery trend[3] - The seasonal peak is approaching, leading to faster sales in the downstream market[3] - The jujubes are currently in the drying phase, with concentrated harvesting expected by the end of the month[3] Technical Analysis - The main jujube futures contract (CJ2501) had a highest price of 9920 CNY/ton and a lowest price of 9720 CNY/ton, closing at 9770 CNY/ton, down 285 CNY/ton from the previous settlement[3] - The trading volume was 67,377 contracts, with an open interest of 72,256 contracts, indicating a bearish trend[3] Strategic Recommendations - It is advised for downstream clients to purchase based on needs, while upstream clients should focus on raw material procurement and consider hedging based on acquisition conditions[4] - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with potential for short-term participation by investors[4] Risk Considerations - Attention should be paid to procurement policies in production areas, which may impact market dynamics[4]

Market Dynamics - The Cangzhou market received 30 trucks of goods, primarily from Xinjiang, with prices slightly easing, while Guangzhou received 4 trucks, showing better transaction volume compared to last year[1] - Expired old warehouse receipts have been canceled, losing their financial attributes[1] - The new season's production is expected to increase, with projected yields in Aksu and Alar regions reaching 800-900 kg per mu[1] - The market sentiment is generally recovering, although red dates failed to maintain the 10,000 yuan per ton mark after a high opening and low closing post-holiday[1] Fundamental Analysis - The new season's red date production is showing a recovery trend[1] - The seasonal peak is approaching, leading to faster sales in the downstream market[1] - The new season's red dates are currently in the drying phase, with concentrated harvesting expected by the end of the month[1] Technical Analysis - The main CJ2501 contract for red dates reached a high of 10,400 yuan/ton and a low of 9,820 yuan/ton, closing at 9,930 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from the previous trading day[1] - The trading volume was 92,770 contracts with an open interest of 70,962 contracts, indicating an increase in positions despite a bearish closing[1] - The MACD indicator shows a decrease in the red energy bar, with the indicator moving upwards below the zero axis[1] Strategic Recommendations - It is advised for downstream clients to purchase based on their needs, while upstream clients should focus on raw material procurement and consider hedging based on acquisition conditions[2] - Investment clients are recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach[2] Risk Considerations - Attention should be paid to the procurement policies in production areas[2]

Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash opened at 1573 CNY/ton and reached a weekly high of 1721 CNY/ton, closing at 1699 CNY/ton, marking a weekly increase of 7.6%[1] - Soda ash production reached 672,200 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons week-on-week, with a comprehensive capacity utilization rate of 80.64%, up by 1.25 percentage points[1] - Inventory levels for soda ash rose to 1.482 million tons, increasing by 83,000 tons from the previous week[1] Fundamental Analysis - The primary concern is the impact of macro pricing, pressure from new capacity, and the contradiction between potential domestic consumption recovery and resilient industrial supply[1] - The decline in the real estate cycle is suppressing demand for construction glass, limiting the growth potential for soda ash[1] - Despite a rigid demand for soda ash, the supply is expected to exceed demand due to new projects, leading to a bearish outlook[1] Summary - The market direction is characterized by wide fluctuations[1] - The core logic indicates a continuous decline in downstream demand, making future supply surplus difficult to reverse[1] - Risks include large-scale cold repairs in float glass production lines and underwhelming production from emerging downstream industries[1]

Market Dynamics - This week, the peak of downstream arrivals has decreased, and warehouse receipts are being canceled at an accelerated pace, flowing into the spot market[1] - The main contract for red dates rebounded significantly, closing at 10,005 CNY/ton, an increase of 570 CNY/ton from the previous period[4] - Overall inventory of red dates is lower compared to previous years, indicating a continuous destocking state[2] Supply and Demand Analysis - The new season dates are entering the maturity phase, with favorable weather conditions aiding in sugar accumulation and coloring[2] - The purchasing price for red dates is around 10 CNY/kg, which is lower than last year, reflecting a change in the purchasing psychology of farmers[2] - The fruit index has slightly decreased, indicating a potential impact on market dynamics[2] Technical Analysis - The main contract for Zheng dates (CJ2501) has a trading volume of 68,447 lots, which is a decrease of 4,586 lots from last week[4] - The MACD indicator shows a reduction in the green energy bar, while the KDJ indicator is converging downwards, suggesting potential market volatility[4] Strategic Recommendations - Investment clients are advised to adopt a range-bound trading strategy, while downstream merchants should purchase as needed, monitoring the 10,000 CNY support level[5] - Key factors to watch include seasonal sales recovery, ongoing inventory destocking, and the increase in new season date production[5] Risk Considerations - Investors should pay attention to potential purchasing policies in production areas, which could significantly influence market conditions[5]

Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, bringing the average deposit reserve ratio to approximately 6.6%[3] - The U.S. PCE price index for August increased by 2.2% year-on-year, down from 2.5%, indicating a step towards the 2% inflation target[3] - Indonesia's nickel-iron shipments to China decreased by 88.25% month-on-month to 37,300 tons, while total shipments to major Chinese ports increased by 288.47% month-on-month to 306,700 tons[3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The production cost of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel is estimated at around 13,850 RMB/ton, with potential for further decline[3] - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to increase steadily, with 43 stainless steel mills projected to produce 333.42 million tons in September, a 0.74% decrease month-on-month but a 4.59% increase year-on-year[10] - Social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 1.58% week-on-week to 1,014,982 tons, with cold-rolled inventory down by 2%[10] Trading Logic - Short positions are favored due to high production and inventory levels, with weak downstream demand and a cautious purchasing approach[3] - Long positions may benefit from lower social inventory compared to last year and pre-holiday stocking up, which could boost market sentiment[3] Price Trends - The main continuous settlement price for stainless steel is 13,445 RMB/ton, reflecting a 0.26% increase week-on-week but a 9.37% decrease year-on-year[9] - The price of Wuxi cold-rolled stainless steel (304/2B) is currently at 13,800 RMB/ton, down 0.72% from the previous week and down 10.97% year-on-year[9] Technical Analysis - The market is currently facing resistance around the 13,800 RMB/ton level, with technical indicators suggesting a potential upward trend[13]

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon stone in Qinghai and Ningxia is between 180-230 CNY/ton, while the price of Shenfu lan coal is 900-930 CNY/ton, indicating a decrease in cost volatility and a significant reduction in industry losses[1] - The current spot price for 72 silicon iron is 6000-6100 CNY/ton, and for 75 silicon iron, it is 6600-6700 CNY/ton, reflecting a recovery in market confidence[1] - Silicon iron warehouse receipts decreased by 221 to 10,136, with total warehouse receipts and forecasts down by 1,105 tons, indicating continued inventory reduction[1] Group 2: Manganese Silicon Market Analysis - The shipping price for South African manganese ore Mn36% is reported at 3.7 USD/ton, with prices for various manganese ores ranging from 32.5-45 CNY/ton, reflecting a cautious market sentiment[2] - The current spot price for manganese silicon is 5800-5850 CNY/ton, with procurement prices from major steel mills like WISCO at 6200 CNY/ton for 2000 tons, indicating a rising price trend[2] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 2,124 to 118,520, with total warehouse receipts and forecasts down by 10,620 tons, showing a continued inventory reduction trend[2] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Trends - The Wanhua Commodity Index closed up 1.26% at 172.45, with a net capital outflow of 6.12 billion CNY, indicating a strong performance in the black series commodities[1] - The main contract for silicon iron closed at 6430 CNY, up 2.39%, with a capital inflow of 991 million CNY, suggesting a bullish market outlook[1] - The steel mills' average daily production of crude steel increased by 2.7% to 1,989 million tons, indicating a recovery in demand and production[12]

图表设置 下载图片 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|--------------------------------| | | 不锈钢周报 \| | 另存为 PDF \n 2024-09-23 分享 | | 进入宏观真空期，盘面或重回弱势 | | | | 【市场动态】 | 作者： | | | 1、据工信部，到2027年，技术装备水平再上新台阶，80%以上钢铁产能 | 罗婧 | | | 完成超低排放改造，30%以上钢铁产能达到能效标杆水平，关键工序数 | 不锈钢分析师 | | | 控化率达到80%。 | | | | 2、青山集团2024年10月高碳铬铁长协采购价8295元/50基（现金含税到 | 从业资格证号：F3066154 | | | 厂价），环比下跌400元，天津港收货价格减150元/50基吨。 | 交易咨询证号：Z0016736 | | | 3、中国2024年8月镍铁进口量为522315.333吨，环比下降36.37 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------| | 下 | 铁合金周报 \| | 2024-09-23 | | 【美联储 9 | 月降息落地，双硅期现低位震荡特点明显】 | | | 硅铁 | | | | 【基本面分析】 | | | | 1、 成本端：青海、宁夏硅石到厂价 180-230 | 元/吨，神府兰炭小料 900-930 元/吨涨 50 元/吨， | | | 河北石家庄 70#氧化铁皮 890-920 元/吨涨 10 | 元/吨，成本普遍上移 60 不等。 | 作者：李娟 铁合金高级分析师 | | 2、 硅铁现货：72 硅铁报 5900-6100 元/吨，75 据显示：8 月 ...

铁合金日报 - 铁合金日报|2024-09-20 【美联储降息 50 个基点，股期市普遍飘红，双硅波动率扩大】 硅铁 【基本面分析】 1、成本端：青海、宁夏硅石到厂价 180-230 元/吨，神府兰炭小料 900-930 元/吨涨 50， 河北石家庄 70#氧化铁皮 880-910 元/吨，硅铁成本继续上移，产业亏损走扩。 2、硅铁现货：72 硅铁报 5900-6100 元/吨，75 报 6500-6700 元/吨现金自然块出厂。钢招 方面，江苏某钢厂 75B 硅铁采购价 6450 元/吨较上一轮跌 180 元/吨，量 900 吨；安徽长江 75B 硅铁采购价为 6400 元/吨，量 200 吨。Mysteel 消息，宁夏大有冶炼检修 1 台 45000KVA 硅铁 矿热炉，影响日产 140 吨，检修时长预计 20 天。 3、仓单变化：硅铁仓单 12781 张较上个交易日减少 201 张，预报 80 张较上个交易日增加 80 张，仓单和预报合计 64305 吨环比减少 605 吨，降库持续中。 【技术分析】 文华商品指数收盘涨 1.15%收在 168.61，资金净流出 31.21 亿。黑色系反弹明显，硅铁主 ...

铁合金日报 - 1 / 6 铁合金日报|2024-09-19 【硅铁厂减产或超预期，关注美联储降息幅度】 硅铁 【基本面分析】 1、成本端：青海、宁夏硅石到厂价 180-230 元/吨，神府兰炭小料 850-880 元/吨，河北 石家庄 70#氧化铁皮 880-910 元/吨，硅铁主流成本 6000-6300，产业亏损面积较大。 2、硅铁现货：72 硅铁报 6000-6100 元/吨，75 报 6500-6600 元/吨现金自然块出厂。近期 产区减产消息不断，甘肃某大厂 3 台 25000KVA 矿热炉成功转炼高硅产品，月减少普硅 7500 吨；中卫某大厂因线路检修，5 台 25500KVA 硅铁炉停产，日产减少 350-400 吨,预计检修半个 月时间。 3、仓单变化：硅铁仓单 12982 张较上个交易日减少 45 张，预报 0 张较上个交易日持平， 仓单和预报合计 64910 吨环比减少 225 吨，降库持续中。 【技术分析】 文华商品指数收盘跌 0.2%收在 166.61，资金净流入 43.5 亿。黑色系涨跌不一，硅铁主力 合约收在 6152 跌 0.71%，资金流出 187 万，增仓 458 手，结算 ...