Cost Analysis - The price of silicon stone at the factory in Qinghai and Ningxia is between 170-230 RMB/ton, while the price of Shenfu Lan coal is stable at 570-640 RMB/ton[2] - The current cash-inclusive ex-factory price for 72 silicon iron is 5100-5200 RMB/ton, and for 75 silicon iron, it is 5700-5850 RMB/ton[2] - The operating rate of 126 sample silicon iron plants is 47.97%, a decrease of 0.39% week-on-week[2] Inventory and Market Sentiment - Silicon iron warehouse receipts decreased by 114 to 15462, with total receipts and forecasts down by 570 tons to 77710 tons[2] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 247 to 100765, while forecasts increased by 1400 to 1800, leading to a total increase of 5765 tons[8] Technical Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed at 155.97, down 0.07%, with a net capital inflow of 3.922 billion RMB[3] - The main manganese silicon contract closed at 5552, up 0.04%, with a capital outflow of 47.67 million RMB[9] Market Outlook - The market is experiencing a low-level wide fluctuation with a slight upward shift in focus on price procurement opportunities[4] - Key factors include downward cost potential, supply-demand mismatch, and macroeconomic pressures from US-China trade negotiations[5]

Group 1: Cost and Pricing Analysis - The price of 72 silicon iron natural blocks is reported at 5000-5200 CNY/ton, down 50-100 CNY from last week[2] - The cost of silicon iron in Qinghai is 5523 CNY/ton with a loss of 323 CNY, while in Ningxia it is 5754 CNY/ton with a loss of 454 CNY[21] - Manganese silicon prices are reported at 5450-5550 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease in the northern region[8] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weekly supply of silicon iron is 97,300 tons, an increase of 9.45% from last week, indicating a significant supply-demand mismatch[34] - Manganese silicon weekly demand is reported at 125,793 tons, down 0.86% from the previous week, while supply is at 171,885 tons, up 1.15%[64] - The total production of silicon iron in May was 405,200 tons, with an expected increase to 440,000 tons in June due to the resumption of production in Ningxia[22] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The market is experiencing a low-level wide fluctuation in the bottoming phase, with weak rebounds but slowing declines[4] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains pessimistic due to significant losses and low demand expectations[40] - The recent dialogue between China and the U.S. has alleviated some short-term macro pressures, with a focus on the dual-coke market trends[5]

Domestic Observations - On June 5, Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone call focusing on trade issues, signaling a potential stabilization in U.S.-China relations[2] - The domestic manufacturing PMI for May 2025 was recorded at 49.5, with a month-on-month change of 0.5[6] - The average daily sales of domestic passenger cars reached 95,364 units, indicating a seasonal high[32] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April 2025 increased by 5.1% year-on-year, but decreased by 0.8% month-on-month[26] Production and Demand Metrics - The domestic electric furnace operating rate was 64.74%, down 0.64% from the previous week[9] - The wholesale price of pork as of June 6, 2025, was 20.46 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.23 yuan[38] - The total area of commercial housing transactions in 30 major cities for the week ending June 8 was 1.2475 million square meters, significantly below seasonal expectations[32] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for May 2025 was 48.5, below expectations, while the services PMI was 49.9, indicating economic contraction[48] - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI for May 2025 was reported at 1.9%, with the European Central Bank lowering interest rates by 25 basis points[48] - The U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs in May 2025, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% for the third consecutive month[58]

Group 1: Market Overview - The current price for 72 silicon iron is reported at 5200-5300 CNY/ton, down 50-100 CNY from last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 2250 CNY[15] - The total production of silicon iron in May is estimated at 405,200 tons, a decrease of 41,700 tons from April, indicating a supply reduction[24] - The average operating rate for silicon iron producers is 46.39%, down 4.28% month-on-month, reflecting a decline in production capacity utilization[27] Group 2: Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The cost of silicon iron in Qinghai is reported at 5624 CNY/ton, with a loss of 324 CNY, while costs in Ningxia and Gansu are 5830.51 CNY/ton and 5733 CNY/ton, respectively, both showing significant losses[24] - The price of manganese silicon is reported at 5500-5550 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 200 CNY from the previous week, and a year-on-year drop of 3150 CNY[8] - Manganese ore prices are under pressure, with half-carbonate reported at 33-33.5 CNY/ton, reflecting a weak market[8] Group 3: Supply and Demand Trends - The inventory of silicon iron at steel mills has decreased to 15.3 days, down 1.55% from the previous month, indicating a tightening supply situation[38] - Manganese silicon inventory has decreased significantly, with a total of 536,865 tons, down 20,905 tons from the previous week, suggesting a reduction in available supply[10] - The overall market sentiment remains pessimistic, with trade transactions being limited and a lack of willingness to stockpile materials[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a weak support level around 5200 CNY for the July contract, with ongoing concerns about production recovery in Ningxia[4] - The anticipated recovery in production may not meet expectations, as the industry continues to face significant losses and a prolonged downtrend[54] - The overall industry is experiencing a prolonged period of losses, with over 90% of production currently operating at a loss, indicating a challenging environment ahead[54]

Group 1: Market Overview - The macro sentiment has improved, leading to a systematic rebound in commodities and valuation recovery[1] - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed at 161.76, up 1.41%, with a net capital inflow of 4.012 billion[2] Group 2: Silicon Iron Analysis - The price of 72 silicon iron is reported at 5350-5500 CNY/ton, while 75 silicon iron is at 5850-6000 CNY/ton[1] - Hebei Steel's procurement of 75B silicon iron in May increased by 20.5% to 2135 tons compared to April[1] - Silicon iron warehouse receipts remained stable at 19048, with a total of 96248 tons[1] Group 3: Manganese Silicon Analysis - Manganese ore prices are on the rise, with semi-carbonate at Tianjin Port priced at 33.5-34 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon prices have slightly increased, with northern reports at 5600-5700 CNY/ton and southern reports at 5650-5750 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 587 to 118693, with a total of 602935 tons[7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The 2509 manganese silicon contract closed at 5864, up 0.62%, with a net capital inflow of 12.27 million[8] - The daily K-line for manganese silicon shows a small upward trend, indicating potential upward momentum[8] Group 5: Strategic Insights - The industry is experiencing significant losses, leading to substantial production cuts[4] - The supply-demand mismatch is narrowing, accelerating inventory reduction[4]

Market Dynamics - Downstream markets show increased activity with 20 trucks arriving in Cangzhou and 3 trucks in Guangzhou, indicating a preference for quality goods[2] - Prices for various grades of red dates range from 6.30 to 12.00 CNY/kg, reflecting stable supply and demand dynamics[2] Economic Indicators - The number of warehouse receipts increased to 8,716 (+152), indicating a growing supply[4] - The main contract for red dates (CJ2509) closed at 9,045 CNY/ton, up 45 CNY/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 81,071 contracts[4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply is recovering with increased production, leading to a more abundant market[6] - Pre-festival stocking for the Dragon Boat Festival is driving demand, contributing to a positive market outlook[7] Risk Factors - External macroeconomic policies pose potential risks to market stability[7]

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon stone in Qinghai and Ningxia ranges from 180 to 230 CNY/ton, while the price of Shenfu Lan charcoal is between 610 and 670 CNY/ton[2] - The current cash price for 72 silicon iron is reported at 5400-5500 CNY/ton, and for 75 silicon iron, it is 5950-6050 CNY/ton[2] - Silicon iron warehouse receipts increased by 19 to 17881 receipts, with a total forecast of 96480 tons, up by 2600 tons[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Technical Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed up 0.42% at 158.08, with a net outflow of 61.987 billion CNY[2] - The black series showed mixed results, with SF2506 closing at 5430, up 0.04%, and a net outflow of 210 million CNY[2] - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with a focus on buying on the rise rather than on the fall[4] Group 3: Manganese Silicon Market Insights - Manganese ore prices are fluctuating, with semi-carbonate at Tianjin Port priced at 32-33 CNY/ton, and South African high-grade at 30.5-31 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon current cash prices are between 5500-5600 CNY/ton, with a notable point price transaction at 5350 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1405 to 123166 receipts, indicating a clear trend of inventory reduction[7] Group 4: Macro Economic Factors - The People's Bank of China has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and reduced policy interest rates by 0.1 percentage points[12] - The logistics industry’s prosperity index for April was reported at 51.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[12] - The total manganese ore inventory in China decreased by 26.39 million tons, with significant reductions at various ports[13]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that a significant decline in the job market could lead to more rapid interest rate cuts by the Fed, especially if unemployment rises significantly[1] - Cleveland Fed President Hammack ruled out a rate cut in May but suggested that the Fed could act as early as June if economic data provides a clear direction[1] - Trump is considering a tiered tariff scheme on China, with a proposed 35% tariff on one category of goods and at least a 100% tariff on another, maintaining a hardline stance on tariffs[1] Group 2: Commodity and Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed results, with energy and chemical products mostly declining; styrene fell by 1.82% and glass by 1.05%, while crude oil rose by 1%[2] - Basic metal futures generally increased, with SHFE zinc up by 1.44% and SHFE tin by 1.30%[2] - NYMEX crude oil closed at $62.77, down 21.11% year-on-year, while COMEX gold rose by 1.81% to $3361.30, up 42.85% year-on-year[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3297.29, reflecting a 4.53% increase year-on-year, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.74%[3] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.62% to 99.29, down 5.64% year-on-year[3]

Macro Economic Indicators - In Q1 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 10.3 trillion yuan, a historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%[1] - Exports amounted to 6.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.9%, while imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, showing a decline of 6%[1] - Monthly trade growth showed a recovery trend, with March exports growing by 6% after a decline of 2.2% in January and stability in February[1] U.S. Policy and Market Reactions - The U.S. government initiated a national security investigation into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, potentially leading to tariffs[1] - The U.S. President is expected to announce semiconductor tariff rates this week, while the Treasury Secretary indicated no evidence of asset sell-off in the bond market[1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested that if tariffs are below 10%, the Fed may be more patient with interest rate cuts, potentially occurring in the second half of the year[2] Commodity and Financial Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed results, with energy and chemical products mostly declining, while crude oil rose by 1%[2] - NYMEX crude oil closed at $77.13, down 14.17% year-to-date, while COMEX gold increased by 22.18% year-to-date, closing at $3226.80[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3262.81, down 2.65% year-to-date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.78% on the day[3]

Domestic Economic Indicators - In March 2025, China's manufacturing PMI recorded 50.5, with a month-on-month change of 0.3[7] - The social retail sales total for February 2025 increased by 4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month change of 0.3%[27] - The total social financing scale for Q1 2025 reached 15.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.37 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[2] Production and Demand - The domestic electric furnace operating rate was 64.1% as of April 3, 2025, unchanged from the previous week[10] - The average daily sales of domestic passenger cars reached 91,789 units as of March 31, 2025[30] - The wholesale price of pork was 20.51 yuan/kg as of April 9, 2025, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.25 yuan/kg[36] Trade and Investment - In February 2025, the import value increased by 1.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month change of 18%[27] - The export value decreased by 3% year-on-year in February 2025, with a month-on-month change of -9%[27] - The cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment in February 2025 was 4.1%, with a month-on-month change of 0.9%[17] Market Volatility and Policy Impact - The announcement of a 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. led to a temporary decrease in the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds to around 4.3%[3] - The South China Industrial Products Index recorded 3,410.15, with a year-on-year change of -371.04[36]