Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon iron ranges from 6000 to 6300 RMB/ton, with significant industry losses reported[4] - Recent production cuts in major regions, including a reduction of 7500 tons per month from a large Gansu plant and a daily decrease of 350-400 tons due to maintenance in another plant[4] - Silicon iron spot prices are reported at 6000-6100 RMB/ton for 72 silicon iron and 6500-6600 RMB/ton for 75 silicon iron[4] Group 2: Manganese Silicon Market Analysis - Manganese ore prices remain weak, with mainstream transactions at 32-33 RMB/ton for semi-carbonate and 41 RMB/ton for Gabon blocks[8] - Manganese silicon prices in the northern region are reported at 5600-5800 RMB/ton, while southern prices are slightly higher at 5700-5800 RMB/ton[8] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 2489 to 129734, indicating a continued reduction in inventory[8] Group 3: Technical and Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed down 0.2% at 166.61, with a net inflow of 4.35 billion RMB[5] - The main contract for silicon iron closed at 6152 RMB, down 0.71%, with a settlement price of 6160 RMB[5] - The market sentiment is influenced by the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, expected to be between 25-50 basis points[6] Group 4: Economic Indicators - In August, the industrial added value increased by 4.5% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 2.1%[12] - Fixed asset investment from January to August was 329385 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.4%[12]

图表设置 下载图片 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------|---------------------------------| | | 不锈钢周报 | 另存为 PDF \| 2024-09-18 分享 | | 美联储靴子落地前后，盘面仍以宏观交易为主 | | | | 【市场动态】 | 作者： | | | 1、据Mysteel，唐山市场焦炭价格计划提涨，干熄焦上调55元/吨。调 | 罗婧 | | | 整后一 ...

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon iron has increased, with prices for 72 silicon iron reported at 6000-6100 CNY/ton and 75 silicon iron at 6500-6600 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease in transaction volume[3] - The average operating rate of silicon iron enterprises is 38.84%, with a daily production of 15,481 tons, indicating a slight increase in supply[16] - The overall industry is experiencing significant losses, with the loss area expanding to 90% and the average cost of production rising to 6002 CNY/ton in Qinghai[11] Group 2: Manganese Silicon Market Analysis - Manganese silicon prices are reported at 5800-5900 CNY/ton, with a decrease in procurement volume by 900 tons in September compared to August[4] - The average operating rate for manganese silicon enterprises is 43.54%, with a daily production of 25,190 tons, showing a slight decrease in supply[18] - The industry is facing losses, with production costs decreasing by 50-100 CNY/ton, but the overall market sentiment remains weak[20] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Silicon iron warehouse receipts decreased by 7,035 tons to 65,135 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation[24] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 44,115 tons to 691,115 tons, suggesting a similar trend in inventory reduction[24] - Steel mills are experiencing a reduction in inventory days, with an average of 14.6 days, indicating a potential for replenishment ahead of the National Day holiday[23]

图表设置 下载图片 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

铁合金日报 - 铁合金日报|2024-09-12 【美联储降息临近，商品日内反弹居多，双硅关注共振走势】 硅铁 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------| | | | | 【基本面分析】 | 作者：李娟 | | 1、成本端：今日内蒙某主流电石企业兰炭采购价格上调，中料上调 67.8 元/吨执行 858.8 | 铁合金高级分析师 | | 元/吨，小料上调 67.8 元/吨执行 841.85 元/吨，均出厂价承兑含税，自 9 月 12 日到厂执行。 | | | 2、硅铁现货：72 硅铁报 6000-6100 元/吨，75 报 6500-6600 元/吨现金自然块出厂暂稳运 | 从业资格号：F0291072 | | 行。铁合金在线统计上周硅铁日产量 15670 吨较上期减 20 吨，本周宁夏中卫二轮线路检修， | 交易咨询号：Z0012479 | | 日产将继续下降，供需错 ...

图表设置 下载图片 【红枣】宏观情绪悲观 郑枣下破万元关口 【市场动态】 1、沧州市场到货40余车，到货数量激增，市场人气较旺，有部分客商 小幅让利出货，广州到货4车，按需拿货为主。 2、目前盘面有效仓单数量7351（-214）张（折36755吨），有效预报61 张（折305吨），仓单及有效预报合计37060吨，仓单即将到期注销。 CJ2409合约今日交割配对135手（折675吨）。 3、从供应上来看新年度产量恢复性增加趋势愈发明朗，盘面上方压力 较大，短期双节备货需求增加同时供应端处于低库存状态。 4、今日交割月仓单即将到期，目前09合约持仓余219手。 5、近期市场交易宏观衰退，市场情绪较悲观，商品大面积下跌。今日 主力合约再次下破万元关口，技术上看下方空间或打开。 【基本面分析】 1、新季枣产量恢复性增加。 2、进入双节补货期，下游走货加快。 3、新季枣方面，注意降雨天气对红枣质量影响。 【技术分析】 红枣主力CJ2501合约，盘面最高价9995元/吨，最低价9675元/吨，收盘 9685元/吨，较上一交易日结算价下跌325元/吨，持仓量63190 （+2844）手,成交量51009手，盘面低开低走收阴 ...

铁合金日报 - 铁合金日报|2024-08-21 【钢厂 8 月双硅库存下降，宏观预期主导盘面修复基差】 硅铁 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------| | | | | 【基本面分析】 | 作者：李娟 | | 1、成本端：青海、宁夏硅石到厂价 180-240 元/吨，陕西兰炭小料 810-880 元/吨出厂较 | 铁合金高级分析师 | | 上周跌 20-50 元/吨，河北石家庄 70#氧化铁皮 900-930 元/吨，内蒙电价下调 1 分，硅铁成本 | | | 6000-6400 区间，大部分企业亏损中。 | 从业资格号：F0291072 | | 2、硅铁现货：72 硅铁报 6150-6200 元/吨，75 报 6700-6800 元/吨现金自然块出厂，江苏 | 交易咨询号：Z0012479 | | 某钢厂硅铁采购定价 6650 元/吨较 7 月跌 200 元/吨，量 ...

Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development plans to start the renovation of 54,000 old urban communities in 2024, with 33,000 already initiated in the first half of the year[2] - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.8 in July, a decrease of 2 percentage points from June, marking the first drop below the neutral line since November 2023[2] - The total inventory of stainless steel in major markets is 1.0655 million tons, down 2.78% week-on-week, with cold-rolled stainless steel inventory at 709,700 tons, down 3.80%[2] Fundamental Analysis - The production cost of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel is approximately 14,050 CNY/ton, with a focus on the price trend of pure nickel[2] - Domestic crude steel production from 43 stainless steel mills decreased month-on-month but showed a slight year-on-year increase, with expectations of increased production in August[2] - Current market conditions indicate a strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory levels suppressing price increases[2] Trading Logic - Bearish factors include seasonal maintenance at some steel mills and sustained high inventory levels, which limit price increases[2] - Bullish factors include potential price increases for nickel due to losses in nickel-iron enterprises and expectations of reduced stainless steel production following the bankruptcy of Delong Nickel Industry[2] - The market is anticipating a busy trading season in August, coinciding with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September[2] Summary - The main contracts are expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,800 to 14,200 CNY[2] - Key logic includes ongoing high production and inventory levels of stainless steel, bullish expectations from raw material losses, and the upcoming trading season[2]