Trade Policy Changes - President Trump signed two executive orders establishing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on trade partners, effective April 5, 2025[1] - Higher "reciprocal tariffs" will be imposed on countries with the largest trade deficits with the U.S., effective April 9, 2025[1] - A 25% tariff on imported cars took effect on April 3, 2025[1] Employment Data - U.S. ADP employment increased by 155,000 in March, significantly exceeding market expectations of 84,000[1] - Manufacturing jobs rose by 21,000, marking the largest increase since October 2022[1] - Despite policy uncertainties and low consumer confidence, the U.S. job market remains robust[1] Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed results, with energy and chemical products mostly rising; PVC increased by 1.22%[1] - Black metals mostly declined, with aluminum oxide down by 1.61% and zinc down by 0.71%[1] - Agricultural products generally rose, with vegetable oil up by 1.78%[1] Global Asset Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $70.73, down 0.58%[4] - COMEX gold rose by 1.33% to $3190.30, with a year-on-year increase of 34.24%[4] - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.67% to 5670.97, with a year-on-year growth of 12.92%[4] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield decreased by 1.36% to 1.79%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly increased by 0.03% to 4.20%[4] - The China-U.S. interest rate spread stands at -2.41, reflecting a decrease of 0.05%[4]

一、宏观要点关注 1、美国"对等关税"靴子即将于4月2日落地。据知情人士透露，白宫助手起草了一份提 案，拟对至少大多数输美商品征收约20%的关税，但不会在周三宣布任何关于制药关税的细 节。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，欧盟有强有力的反制计划，必要时将反击美国关税政 策。美联储巴尔金表示，关税可能会同时推高通胀和失业率，给美联储带来巨大挑战。 宏观大类资产日报:2025-04-02 | | | | 二、全球大类资产表现一览表 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大类资产 | 指标 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 周同比 | 月同比 | 年同比 | | | NYMEX原油 | 71.14 | -0.36% | 1.72% | 7.15% | -16.61% | | | LME铜 | 9692.50 | -0.18% | -2.36% | 1.03% | 2.30% | | | LME铝 | 2504.50 | -1.13% | -3.93% | -6.09% | -2.15% | | | COMEX白银 | 34.39 | -1.08% | 0.5 ...

Economic Indicators - In March, China's manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4%, respectively, all showing an increase of 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a clear economic recovery trend[2] - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession from 20% to 35% and lowered the 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2% to 1.5%[2] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of a potential 20% special tariff on all imports by President Trump, the Nikkei 225 index fell over 4%, closing below 36,000 points, marking a decline of over 10% from its peak in December[2] - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.31%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.00%[4] Commodity Performance - NYMEX crude oil rose by 3.42% to $71.40, while LME copper fell by 1.07% to $9,690.00[4] - Agricultural products mostly increased, with notable gains in cotton and sugar, while black metals saw declines, with coking coal down by 1.5%[3] Bond Market - The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds was 1.82%, reflecting a 0.29% increase, while the 2-year yield rose by 2.35% to 1.57%[4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.23%, showing a slight decrease of 0.04%[4] Currency Trends - The U.S. dollar index stood at 104.19, with a minor increase of 0.15%[4] - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar was 7.27, reflecting a decrease of 0.06%[4]

1、美国白宫发布声明表示，美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京通话，双方谈到了乌克兰冲 突中和平与停火的必要性，且都同意这场冲突需要以持久和平结束。双方还强调需要改善 美国和俄罗斯之间的双边关系。两位领导人一致认为，实现和平将从能源和基础设施停火 开始，以及就实施黑海海上停火、全面停火和永久和平进行技术谈判。声明称，这些谈判 将在中东展开。 宏观大类资产日报:2025-03-19 作者：李魁 Z号：Z0017255 F号：F3077815 一、宏观要点关注 | | | | | MEETING DATE 200-225 225-250 250-275 275-300 300-325 325-350 350-375 375-400 | | | | | 400-425 425-450 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/3/19 | | | | | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 98.0% | | 2025/5/7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ...

Economic Indicators - In the first two months of this year, China's industrial added value, service production index, retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed asset investment grew by 5.9%, 5.6%, 4%, and 4.1% year-on-year, respectively, accelerating by 0.1, 0.4, 0.5, and 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous year[1] - Real estate development investment decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, while the sales area of new commercial housing fell by 5.1%, with both declines narrowing[1] Housing Market Trends - New home prices in first-tier cities continued to rise month-on-month, while second-tier cities' prices remained flat after a 0.1% increase last month[1] - In February, 18 cities saw month-on-month increases in new home prices, a decrease of 6 cities from the previous month, with Nanjing leading for three consecutive months[1] U.S. Economic Data - U.S. retail sales rose by 0.2% month-on-month in February, falling short of the expected 0.6%, with January revised down to a 1.2% decline, the largest drop since July 2021[2] Commodity Market Performance - Energy and chemical products, black series, and agricultural products generally declined, with caustic soda, coke, and palm oil dropping over 1%[2] - Basic metals mostly fell, with nickel down 1.78%, stainless steel down 0.7%, and zinc down 0.58%[2] Global Asset Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $67.48, down 19.66% year-on-year[2] - COMEX gold rose by 0.55% to $3010.10, with a year-on-year increase of 32.46%[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3426.13, up 11.33% year-on-year[2] Interest Rates and Currency - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield was 1.89%, up 2.48% day-on-day[2] - The U.S. dollar index stood at 103.40, down 1.49% year-on-year[2]

Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to prevent and resolve financial risks in key areas, supporting the stable development of capital markets[1] - From March 10 to March 14, the price of cold-rolled stainless steel sheets in Wuxi increased by 300 yuan, with four-foot sheets priced at 13,200 yuan and five-foot sheets at 13,300 yuan[1] - On March 14, the trading volume of SS2505 reached 192,000 lots, an increase of 51,894 lots, while the open interest decreased by 482 lots[1] Fundamental Analysis - The mainstream transaction price of high-nickel iron rose to 1,000 yuan per nickel, indicating a continued increase in costs for 304 stainless steel[2] - Downstream demand remains stable, with stainless steel crude steel production in February increasing month-on-month, and March production expected to continue rising[2] - The market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with high inventory levels and weak demand expectations[2] Production and Inventory - In February 2025, the crude steel production from 43 stainless steel plants was 3.1453 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.92% but a year-on-year increase of 23.5%[18] - The total social inventory of stainless steel in major markets increased by 0.36% week-on-week, with cold-rolled stainless steel inventory rising by 0.89%[19] - As of March 14, the delivery warehouse inventory reached 197,237 tons, indicating a significant increase of 41,471 tons from the previous week[19] Price Trends - The price of cold-rolled stainless steel sheets in Wuxi increased by 100 yuan to 13,620 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.74% rise week-on-week[15] - The market sentiment remains optimistic, with prices generally trending upwards despite some resistance from downstream buyers[12] - The overall market is experiencing a price increase due to rising costs from upstream materials and a supportive policy environment[22]

3、美国上周初请失业金人数减少2000人至22万人，低于预期的22.5万人。前一周续请失业 金人数降至187万人，也低于预期。 4、国内商品期货夜盘收盘多数上涨，能源化工品涨跌不一，原油跌1.2%，苯乙烯涨1.04% 。黑色系涨跌互现，焦炭跌近1%。农产品普遍上涨，豆二涨1.58%，豆粕涨1.43%，豆油涨 1.32%。基本金属涨跌不一，沪锡涨9.15%，不锈钢涨0.41%，沪锌涨0.21%，沪镍跌0.46%， 氧化铝跌0.86%。沪金涨1.75%，沪银涨2.29%。。 | | | | 二、全球大类资产表现一览表 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大类资产 | 指标 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 周同比 | 月同比 | 年同比 | | | NYMEX原油 | 66.76 | -1.37% | -0.43% | -5.40% | -19.67% | | | LME铜 | 9749.00 | -0.41% | 1.53% | 3.00% | 9.89% | | | LME铝 | 2705.00 | 0.19% | 0.60% | 2.66% ...

Macro Economic Indicators - In February, the US CPI year-on-year slowed to 2.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, both lower than market expectations[1] - The core CPI in February rose by 3.1% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since April 2021, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, also below market expectations[1] - Traders have increased bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, expecting at least two rate cuts within the year[1] Trade and Tariffs - The European Commission announced retaliatory tariffs on US products worth €26 billion, in response to the US imposing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports[1] - Canada will impose a 25% retaliatory tariff on US steel and aluminum products valued at CAD 29.8 billion starting March 13[1] Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly higher, with energy and chemical products generally rising; crude oil increased by 1.57%, LPG by 1.37%, and low-sulfur fuel oil by 1.3%[1] - Agricultural products saw widespread increases, with rapeseed meal up 1.42% and rapeseed oil up 1.29%[1] - Base metals mostly rose, with Shanghai copper up 0.86%, nickel up 0.81%, and lead up 0.8%[1] Global Asset Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $67.69, up 1.61% for the day, but down 17.16% year-on-year[2] - LME copper closed at $9,789.00, up 1.14% for the day, with a year-on-year increase of 10.39%[2] - COMEX silver closed at $33.74, up 1.09% for the day, with a year-on-year increase of 36.24%[2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Highlights - President Trump has instructed the Commerce Secretary to impose an additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum products from Canada, raising the total tariff to 50% if Canada does not remove other tariffs[2] - Trump claims the U.S. is entering an economic boom and is not concerned about market sell-offs, stating that interest rates and prices for eggs and gasoline have decreased[2] - Domestic commodity futures saw mixed results, with energy and chemical products mostly declining, while black metals and basic metals futures generally rose[2] Group 2: Global Asset Performance Overview - NYMEX crude oil closed at $66.62, up 1.06% for the day but down 18.05% year-on-year[3] - LME copper rose to $9,679.00, increasing by 1.96% daily and 9.20% year-on-year[3] - COMEX silver increased by 2.89% to $33.38, with a year-on-year rise of 35.95%[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,379.83, up 0.41% for the day and 11.49% year-on-year[3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.28, showing a slight increase of 0.06%[3]

Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank plans to lower the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates based on economic conditions, with current reserve requirement having room for reduction[1] - The central bank will expand the re-lending scale for technological innovation from 500 billion yuan to between 800 billion and 1 trillion yuan[1] - Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have lowered their 2025 U.S. GDP growth forecasts to 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively, due to tariff policies and fiscal contraction[2] Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump indicated potential increases in tariffs on certain goods from Canada and Mexico, including a 250% tariff on dairy products[1] - Ontario province has imposed a 25% tariff on electricity exports to the U.S., raising costs by approximately 10 CAD per megawatt hour[1] Commodity and Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures mostly declined, with soybean meal and palm oil dropping nearly 2%, while canola meal rose by 6.99%[2] - NYMEX crude oil closed at $65.92, down 1.69%, with a year-on-year decline of 19.61%[3] - COMEX gold and silver prices fell by 0.84% and 1.52%, with year-on-year increases of 33.15% and 30.73%, respectively[3] Stock Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.85%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.08%[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3366.16, down 0.19%, with a year-on-year increase of 11.23%[3] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.22%, showing a slight decrease of 0.10%[3] - The current probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut is 96.0% for the meeting on March 19, 2025[3]