大家好欢迎参加招商证券消费的方向电话会议本期主题把卖中报展望HR目前罪犯规则均处于静音状态下面开始播报声明 本次电话会议仅面向招商证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户会议嘉宾发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或观点不构成投资建议未经招商证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音、制作纪要、转发、转载、传播、复制、编辑、修改等涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持,谢谢 各位亲爱的投资者 大家晚上好我是招人视频的分析师佳琪那下面我来汇报一下我们食品饮料的一个观点那也是我们正好下个月是7月份嘛就是进入一个下半年那我们也刚刚这周出了我们的中期策略然后所以我也简单介绍一下我们的这个整体的这样的一个值得思考方向 首先就是这个其实也跟我们今年一季度包括全年的一个策略其实是相不相成的我们去年年度策略的时候其实提到的主要是我们的题目叫做良性增长嘛那我们觉得今年其实确实能看到我们这一类的公司如果是 就是已经实现良性的发展的这样的一个公司其实今年整体的一个股票的走势还是不错的当然可能有一部分的公司它确实也是在一个从过去内卷的竞争向良性发展的这样一个变化的过程中这个其实是 在二季度或者是一二季度其实还是有一些公司逐渐的在 ...

各位投资者下午好也感谢万德这边的邀请今天下午给大家做一个医药出海板块的这么一个汇报那就是从医药的这个出海这边来讲呢其实就是我们已经在二三年的年度策略里面就提出这个是未来的重要主线之一那这里面我觉得为什么要出海它的这个理由也非常的充分那一部分呢就是in China for Global 整个就是海外的这个医药市场就空间比较广阔尤其是部分发达国家它的一个支付政策也是也给部分类似于创新药的产品有更大的一个市场容量和空间然后另外一个呢就是从就是我们自身的一个能力端来讲我们在就是无论是产业链端还是在它的一个产品端我们中国都有一定的一个资源禀赋 从而能够实现一个相应的板块的出海在这里面我们今天的汇报会分成主要三部分第一部分是对于医药出海子板块的总的一个分析 后续就是由于时间有限我们也是在这里面分别从产品端和供应链端选择了就是两个子板块进行进一步的展开分别是创新药和原料医疗我们认为是在当下值得去进行进一步的重点关注的两个子板块而后续的一些更多的细分的子板块内容也欢迎各位投资者与我们进行线下的联系 那首先呢就是这张图其实展示的是我们对于就是各个医药子板块的海外收入占比的一个数据那我们认为呢就是能够出海的公司无论它的一个竞争力 ...

各位投资者下午好也感谢万德这边的邀请今天下午给大家做一个医药出海板块的这么一个汇报那就是从医药的这个出海这边来讲呢其实就是我们已经在二三年的年度策略里面就提出这个是未来的重要主线之一那这里面我觉得为什么要出海它的这个理由也非常的充分那一部分呢就是in China for Global 整个就是海外的这个医药市场就空间比较广阔尤其是部分发达国家它的一个支付政策也是也给部分类似于创新药的产品有更大的一个市场容量和空间然后另外一个呢就是从就是我们自身的一个能力端来讲我们在就是无论是产业链端还是在它的一个产品端我们中国都有一定的一个资源禀赋 从而能够实现一个相应的板块的出海在这里面我们今天的汇报会分成主要三部分第一部分是对于医药出海子板块的总的一个分析 后续就是由于时间有限我们也是在这里面分别从产品端和供应链端选择了就是两个子板块进行进一步的展开分别是创新药和原料医疗我们认为是在当下值得去进行进一步的重点关注的两个子板块而后续的一些更多的细分的子板块内容也欢迎各位投资者与我们进行线下的联系 那首先呢就是这张图其实展示的是我们对于就是各个医药子板块的海外收入占比的一个数据那我们认为呢就是能够出海的公司无论它的一个竞争力 ...

Consumption Trends - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales increased by 1.4 percentage points to 3.7%, slightly below market expectations and weaker than Q1 levels[1] - The growth rate of goods retail sales rose by 1.6 percentage points to 3.6%, indicating a notable improvement in momentum[1] - Dining revenue growth increased by 0.6 percentage points to 5.0%, although momentum slightly weakened post the May Day holiday[1] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth in urban areas was 4.0%, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points from April[25] - Infrastructure investment growth decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 6.7%, while real estate investment fell by 0.3 percentage points to -10.1%[25] - Manufacturing investment saw a minor decrease of 0.1 percentage points to 9.6%[25] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that demand-boosting policies, including long-term government bond issuance and real estate support measures, will positively impact economic momentum in the second half of the year[7] - Industrial production maintained a growth rate of 5.6%, although it decreased by 1.1 percentage points compared to April[26] - The overall economic structure is undergoing a gradual recovery, with supply and demand converging, but internal demand remains uneven[26]

1 ——金融数据点评（2024 年 5 月） 一、信贷：需求仍待提振，供给继续优化 居民端新增贷款止跌回升，5 月增加 757 亿，同比少增 2,915 亿。其 中，中长贷增加 514 亿，同比少增 1,170 亿；短贷增加 243 亿，同比少增 1,745 亿。房地产 517 新政效果仍待显现，5 月 30 大中城市商品房销售面 积月均值同比增速-38%，与 4 月基本持平。 宏观点评（2024 年 6 月 15 日） 5 月 M2 增长进一步放缓，但斜率趋于平缓，未来存款增速有望逐步 企稳。企业端，规范手工补息影响减弱，5 月企业存款减少 8,000 亿，同 比多减 6,607 亿，较 4 月大幅缩窄（同比多减 1.7 万亿）。居民端，由于 居民对超长期特别国债、债基及稳健低波型理财配置热情较高，5 月居民 存款增加 4,200 亿，同比少增 1,164 亿。政府端，政府债发行提速推升财 政存款，5 月大幅增加 7,633 亿，同比多增 5,264 亿。 5 月，房地产政策多点发力，带动债券收益率短暂上行。随着地方政 府专项债加快发行、央行加大投放呵护银行间流动性，债券市场收益率再 下行。后因超长期特别国 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - The US CPI year-on-year growth rate slowed to 3.3% in May, below the market expectation of 3.4%[4] - Month-on-month CPI remained flat, while core CPI year-on-year growth also decreased to 3.4%, against an expected 3.5%[4] - Non-housing service inflation softened due to three factors: the lagging impact of April's economic downturn, stabilization in vehicle insurance prices, and a decline in service consumption post-pandemic[4] Group 2: Energy and Food Prices - Food prices increased by 0.1% in May, while energy prices fell by 2.0% due to declining gasoline prices[5] - Gasoline wholesale prices are expected to continue to drive down energy prices, with food inflation likely to fluctuate around 2%[5] Group 3: Core Goods and Services - Core goods inflation saw a slight decline of 0.04% in May, influenced by a stabilization in used car prices, which rose by 0.6% month-on-month[6] - Core service inflation weakened significantly, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, the lowest since September 2021, while year-on-year growth remained at 5.3%[7] Group 4: Market Reactions - The weaker-than-expected inflation data led to a "dovish" market sentiment, with the OIS curve indicating a potential 40 basis points rate cut by the Fed this year[8] - US Treasury yields fell significantly, with the 2-year yield dropping to 4.75% and the 10-year yield to 4.32%[8] Group 5: Future Outlook - The weakening inflation data is largely attributed to the lagging effects of April's economic conditions, but a rebound in economic activity in May and June could lead to a resurgence in inflation momentum[9] - Despite the recent softening, the underlying consumer demand driven by high wage growth and a strong housing market is expected to support inflation persistence[11]

Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecasts, with the 2024 year-end PCE inflation prediction increased from 2.4% to 2.6% and core PCE inflation from 2.6% to 2.8%[5] - The unemployment rate forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were adjusted upward from 4.1% to 4.2% due to unexpected labor supply expansion[23] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% and kept the balance sheet reduction pace at $60 billion per month starting June[3] - The dot plot indicated a reduction in the expected number of rate cuts for the year from 3 times (75 basis points) to 1 time (25 basis points) and raised the long-term rate forecast from 2.6% to 2.8%[16] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcements, the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 8.2 basis points to 4.75%, while the 10-year yield decreased by 8.8 basis points to 4.32%[7] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85% and the Nasdaq increased by 1.53%, indicating mixed performance in the stock market[7] Forward Guidance - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need for caution and indicated that interest rate decisions will depend on forthcoming data, suggesting a divided market outlook on rate cuts[8] - The overall financial conditions remain loose, with no immediate basis for further rate cuts anticipated within the year[8]

各位投资者大家上午好我是张人权策略分析师张夏那近期呢有一个概念啊关注度是非常的高叫科特估那他为什么会受到投资者关注呢因为在去年前两年前两年的时候呢有一个概念叫中特估啊受到投资者的普遍关注那么中字头的股票在过去的这一两一两年啊表现是非常不错的那很多人呢就把 产生一种印象啊就是说只要我一提什么什么估啊那我这个估值就可以提升或者政策啊说什么什么估啊那我们就可以实现一个估值的抬升当然最终呢我们我们其实也知道啊这个中透估的估值的提升呢也不是大家想象中的那样啊最终的一个结果呢是因为整个的 宏观环境的变化让高股市的股票呢受到投资者的关注而中字头的股票呢那普遍都是属于这个经营比较稳健啊股市率比较高的这个股票所以我们表观上看来呢就好像是这个中头股的股票呢表现比较好啊但他其实背后的本质呢是在整个的宏观环境啊变化的背后的话高股市的股票受到追捧 那么最近的时间呢那像科特估这个概念也是提出来啊也是大家在关注吧呃其实他叫什么并不重要那核心还是跟往常一样我们就是分析说那这样一类型的股票他是否有估值提升的逻辑啊估值提升的逻辑是什么那这个是比较重要的一点所以今天呢我们也就这个话题呢进行一些展开的讨论那就是说你说了这个科特估那就是科技特色的估值 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the steel industry Core Insights - The steel industry is under pressure to accelerate energy conservation and carbon reduction efforts to meet the binding targets set for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a goal to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by 13.5% and carbon emissions by 18% by 2025 [1] - The "Steel Industry Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" aims to achieve energy savings of 20 million tons of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 53 million tons during 2024-2025 [1][8] - The plan emphasizes energy conservation, production regulation, and equipment upgrades as key strategies to achieve these targets [1] Summary by Sections Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction - The action plan mandates a reduction of over 2% in comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel by 2025, with the target set at 546 kg of standard coal per ton, down from 557.1 kg in 2023 [2][3] - Specific energy consumption targets for various processes are outlined, including a reduction of over 1% for blast furnaces and converters, and over 2% for electric arc furnaces by 2025 [3] Production Regulation - The action plan focuses on energy conservation and carbon reduction without imposing administrative production cuts, aiming for a gradual adjustment of crude steel production based on efficiency, energy consumption, and environmental standards [4][5] - It is projected that crude steel production may need to decrease by approximately 16 million to 24 million tons to meet the energy savings and emission reduction targets [5] Equipment Upgrades - The action plan encourages the upgrade of production equipment, particularly for blast furnaces with a volume of 1000m³ or less, and promotes the use of advanced energy-efficient equipment across the industry [6][7] - The plan also highlights the importance of improving auxiliary equipment efficiency and promoting the use of new energy vehicles in steel transportation [7] Policy Impact - The action plan is a response to the lagging progress in meeting the 14th Five-Year Plan's targets and aims to facilitate the green, low-carbon, and high-quality development of the steel industry [8] - While the plan's energy conservation and emission reduction requirements are expected to lead to a slight decline in domestic production, the overall supply-demand balance is not anticipated to change significantly in the short term due to ongoing weak demand in the real estate sector [8]

感谢您的理解和支持 谢谢 好的 各位投资者大家好我是招商农业的石藤今天也是非常感谢公司的各位领导和投资者在昨天下午抽空过来参加咱们天马科技24年中报的一个业绩的解读那公司的话也是在周五披露了半年度的业绩预告那规模金利润的话是5000到6500万那同比是实现了一个扭亏那二季度的话同比也是扭亏那环比的话是实现了一个大幅的增长那整体来看的话就是整个业绩拐点的一个特征就是相对来讲是比较明确的 那接下来的话我先简单介绍一下今天参会的公司领导主要有董事长陈总然后集团领导张总董事长助理许总董秘带总财务总监邓总和三名养殖总经理杨总那接下来的话我们还是先请董事长陈总对咱们后面的一个经营规划的话做一个简单的一个展望陈总各位投资者大家各位老师各位经理 各位朋友大家下午好我是天马科技的董事长陈信谈在热热的夏天我们利用周末的时间以大家百忙之中参加天马半年度中报的一级交流会我代表天马科技真诚的欢迎 对大家一直以来对天马科技的关注、关心和支持表示衷心的感谢因为大家知道天马立足总部在福建福建巴山水域分田福建的港湾经济也造就了福建的特种水产产业的发展天马福建的三大产业以特别的区域优势 像这个海洋经济板块、茶叶板块、井内板块所以福建的这个农业板 ...