证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 煤炭开采 25 年 1-4 月澳煤出口同比-8.1%，因停产澳大利亚焦煤价格上行 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2025 年 5 月 16 日，原油价格方面，布伦 特原油期货结算价为 65.41 美元/桶，较上周上涨 1.50 美元/桶（+2.35%）； WTI 原油期货结算价为 62.49 美元/桶，较上周上涨 1.47 美元/桶 （+2.41%）。天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 11.88 美元/百 万英热，较上周下跌 0.13 美元/百万英热（-1.1%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期 货结算价 35.18 欧元/兆瓦时，较上周上涨 0.42 欧元/兆瓦时（+1.2%）； 美国 HH 天然气期货结算价为 3.33 美元/百万英热，较上周下跌 0.46 美元 /百万英热（-12.1%）。煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到 岸价 94.5 美元/吨，较上周下跌 2.6 美元/吨（-2.7%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤 炭（6000K）FOB 价 99.0 美元/吨，较上周上涨 0.1 美元/吨（+0.1 ...

-0.03(-0.56%) -0.09(-1.18%) -0.04(-1.00%) 保险 中国太保 7.0 中国人保 中国平安 ■ 3630.79亿市值 3216.08亿市值 9722.44亿市值 12.09亿成交额 24.99亿成交额 11.96亿成交额 53.39 8.21 33.43 -0.61(-1.79%) -0.86(-1.59%) -0.07(-0.85%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 20276.67亿市值 2500.93亿市值 5088.01亿市值 22.89亿成交额 37.15亿成交额 6.49亿成交额 131.08 205.00 1614.13 -17.88(-1.10%) -4.50(-2.15%) -2.59(-1.94%) 半导体 XD海光信 北方华创 寒武纪-U HYGON 3218.98亿市值 2289.48亿市值 2788.61亿市值 10.79亿成交额 24.03亿成交额 18.85亿成交额 428.60 668.00 138.49 -0.30(-0.07%) -9.00(-1.33%) -3.45(-2.43%) 汽车整车 铁路公路 比亚进 长城汽车 京沪高铁 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Citigroup has set a target price of HKD 32.70 for China Shenhua (601088) based on the expected 2025 EV/EBITDA valuation, with a buy rating [1] - The company’s coal, power, railway, port, and coal-to-chemical businesses have been assigned valuation multiples of 3.7x, 9.9x, 5.6x, 10.8x, and 5.9x respectively, aligning with the average levels in the H-share market [1] - The target price corresponds to a projected P/E ratio of 10.5x and a P/B ratio of 1.3x for 2025 [1] Group 2: Coal Price Outlook - In April 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 16% year-on-year, with management expecting total imports for the year to fall below 500 million tons, down from approximately 540 million tons in 2024 [2] - With rising summer electricity demand and positive outcomes from US-China tariff negotiations, management anticipates a rebound in China's thermal coal consumption starting in early June, which will support coal prices [2] Group 3: Production Costs and Pricing - The company expects a year-on-year increase of about 6% in the unit cost of self-produced coal in 2025, primarily due to rising labor costs and increased mining depth [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the electricity price for Shenhua decreased, mainly due to price reductions in Guangdong and Fujian provinces where most of its power plants are located [4] - Despite falling coal prices, management believes that China will not significantly reduce coal production, with some mines potentially increasing output to maintain profit levels [5] Group 4: Capital Expenditure - For the Xinjie coal mine project, the unit capital expenditure for the first and second mines is higher than CNY 2000 per ton, while the unit capital expenditure for the third to sixth mines will be lower due to preparatory capital expenditures [6]

Important News - Alibaba (09988.HK) reported a net profit of 12.382 billion yuan for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 279%. The board approved a dividend payout totaling approximately 4.6 billion USD [1] - The Supreme Court and the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated that individuals causing harm to others through "small essays" that constitute a crime will be held criminally liable [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that parties involved in the sale of the port by CK Hutchison Holdings must not evade scrutiny [1] Individual Company News - NetEase-S (09999.HK) announced a first-quarter net profit of 10.301 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.94% [1] - Evergrande Property (06666.HK) appointed Mr. Lin Huaihan and Mr. Kong Xiangda as independent non-executive directors [1] - Air China (00753.HK) reported a 5.3% year-on-year increase in passenger capacity input (measured in available seat kilometers) for April [1] - China Southern Airlines (01055.HK) saw a 12.14% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover for April [1] - China Eastern Airlines (00670.HK) reported a 15.56% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover for April [1] - China Shenhua (01088.HK) reported coal sales of 134.9 million tons in the first four months, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [1] - Green Tea Group (06831.HK) had a public offering in Hong Kong that was oversubscribed by 317.54 times, with a final offer price of 7.19 HKD per share [1] - COSCO Shipping Development (02866.HK) experienced unusual stock trading fluctuations, with no undisclosed significant information [1] - Geely Automobile-R (00175.HK) reported first-quarter automotive sales revenue of 19.096 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [1] - Beike-W (02423.HK) announced a first-quarter total transaction volume growth of 34.0% and a net revenue growth of 42.4% year-on-year [1] - Laopu Gold (06181.HK) completed the placement of a total of 4.31 million new H-shares at a placement price of 630 HKD per share [1] - Hopson Development Holdings (00754.HK) reported a total contract sales amount of approximately 4.744 billion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year decrease of 12.21% [1]

证券代码：601088 证券简称：中国神华 公告编号：临 2025-025 注：2025 年 2 月，本公司收购国家能源集团杭锦能源有限责任公司（"杭锦能源"） 100%股权的交易已完成。上表中本公司主要运营指标包含杭锦能源相关业务量，并对上年 同期本公司主要运营指标进行了重述。 2025 年 4 月，本公司天津煤码头装船量同比增长的主要原因，是到港资源 量增加、上年同期港口设备更新改造导致基数较低；航运货运量、周转量同比下 降的主要原因，是业务结构调整；聚乙烯、聚丙烯销售量增长的主要原因，是上 年同期煤制烯烃生产设备按计划检修导致基数较低。 以上主要运营数据来自本公司内部统计。运营数据在月度之间可能存在较大 差异，其影响因素包括但不限于天气变化、设备检修、季节性因素和安全检查等。 运营数据可能与相关期间定期报告披露的数据有差异。投资者应注意不恰当信赖 或使用以上信息可能造成投资风险。 1 承中国神华能源股份有限公司董事会命 总会计师、董事会秘书 宋静刚 2025 年 5 月 16 日 2 中国神华能源股份有限公司 2025 年 4 月份主要运营数据公告 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会及全体董事 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua (601088) reported a decline in coal sales and electricity generation in April 2025, while showing significant growth in polyethylene and polypropylene sales [1] Group 1: Coal Sales and Production - The coal sales volume for April 2025 was 35.6 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4% [1] - The cumulative coal sales volume reached 135 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.6% [1] Group 2: Electricity Generation and Sales - The total electricity generation in April was 14.95 billion kilowatt-hours, which is a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% [1] - The total electricity sales volume was 14.1 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a year-on-year decline of 9.5% [1] Group 3: Chemical Products - Polyethylene sales volume reached 32,800 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 97.6% [1] - Polypropylene sales volume was 32,200 tons, indicating a year-on-year growth of 64.3% [1]

智通财经APP获悉，港股今日发力走高，午后涨幅进一步扩大，三大指数均涨超2%。截止收盘，恒生 指数涨2.3%或532.38点，报23640.65点，全日成交额2228.41亿港元；恒生国企指数涨2.47%，报8593.07 点；恒生科技指数涨2.13%，报5381.78点。 交银国际表示，考虑到中美双方今年度首次谈判所取得的成效超预期，可以预期后续中美双方关税谈判 还是朝着建设性方向进展。短期来看，中美双方经贸谈判取得进展极大降低了全球范围内的贸易和衰退 风险，风险情绪有望短期内维持平稳，从而为港股市场带来正面催化。 蓝筹股表现 京东健康(06618)表现亮眼。截至收盘，涨5.13%，报39.95港元，成交额10.3亿港元，贡献恒指3.56点。 京东健康发布2025年第一季度业绩，收入166.45亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增长25.5%；经营盈利10.71 亿元，同比增长119.8%。公司表示，一季度在医疗AI领域取得多项进展，持续推动AI技术在医疗健康 服务、专病诊疗、健康管理等方面的应用。 其他蓝筹股方面，中国人寿(02628)涨6.55%，报16.26港元，贡献恒指12.27点；友邦保险(01299)涨 ...

煤炭 行业周报（20250505-20250511） 同步大市-A(维持) 外需预期主导波动，关注迎峰度夏需求改善 2025 年 5 月 12 日 行业研究/行业周报 煤炭行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 动态数据跟踪 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 【山证煤炭】宏观利好提振钢矿需求， 冶金煤价格企稳-【山证煤炭】行业周报 （20250421-20250427）： 2025.4.28 动力煤：节后库存走高，港口煤价延续弱势。本周产地煤矿生产基本维 持较好水平。需求方面，节后一周南方降雨增加，利好水电出力，叠加气温 下降，居民用电走低，火电负荷受到影响，发电煤耗继续低位；下游复工及 基建仍有待提高，工业原料用煤支撑减弱；节后大秦线复运，港口发运增加， 北方港口煤炭调入恢复高位并高于调出，煤炭库存增加明显，港口煤价维持 弱势。进入二季度中下旬，关税博弈仍存，国内稳经济财政、货币政策将继 续落地，非电用煤需求或有所恢复；同时，内外贸价差倒挂，预计国内进口 煤减少，国内动力煤价格中枢继续下降空间不大。截至 5 月 9 日，环渤海动 力煤现货参考价 643 元/吨，周变化-2.13%；广州港山西优混 670 元/吨，周 变化- ...

Summary of China Shenhua's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited - **Date**: May 9, 2025 Key Points Industry Insights - The coal price center is expected to decline due to supply-demand easing and economic policy uncertainties. Short-term coal prices may resist decline, but long-term impacts from renewable energy and changes in electricity demand will lead to a downward shift in coal prices [2][3] - The coal market showed weak performance in Q1, with market prices down approximately 20% year-on-year. The average sales price decreased by 19.5% [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1, China Shenhua reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.949 billion yuan, a decrease of 18% year-on-year. The average sales price fell by 19.5%, but the revenue decline was less than the cost decline due to cost optimization [2][4][5] - The company maintains a high proportion of long-term contracts, which helps mitigate market volatility. The long-term contract signing rate is at 75%, with a fulfillment rate of 90% [5][6] Strategic Initiatives - China Shenhua is actively promoting asset injections to resolve industry competition issues, including the announced asset injection from Hangjing Energy and negotiations with the State Energy Group for a new round of capital injection [2][8] - The company has adjusted its sales strategy, increasing the proportion of annual contracts and optimizing sales tactics, which has contributed to a higher long-term contract ratio [2][10] Cost Management - The company has set a 6% annual cost guidance and is implementing measures such as budget control and benchmarking analysis to reduce costs and improve efficiency. The operating cost decreased by 21.8%, which is greater than the revenue decline [11][12] - Safety production reserves are robust, amounting to over 23 billion yuan, providing a solid foundation for operational and cost control [11] Market Outlook - The long-term coal price benchmark is currently at 675 yuan/ton, with no conditions for adjustment. The market is closely monitored for impacts from key industries like real estate and steel, as well as electricity market reforms and renewable energy impacts [4][12][17] - The coal industry faces ongoing supply-demand changes, with the potential for continued pressure on coal prices and profitability for leading companies [13][14] Challenges and Responses - The development of renewable energy is significantly impacting the thermal power industry, necessitating China Shenhua to enhance its adjustment capabilities and ensure coal supply to adapt to industry changes [4][19][20] - The company is aware of the challenges posed by global economic uncertainties and trade tensions, and it plans to maintain stability in production and strategic development while ensuring energy security [26] Additional Considerations - The impact of the US-China tariff conflict on the thermal power industry is limited, but it may affect overall economic and electricity demand [22] - The company is focused on enhancing its competitive edge through various measures, including increasing flexibility and securing auxiliary income [20][21] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions of China Shenhua as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market conditions, and future outlook.

内容概要：2024年我国煤炭供应能力持续提升，据国家统计局数据显示，2024年我国煤炭产量达47.59 亿元，同比增长2.17%，其中，内蒙古、山西、陕西、新疆、贵州、安徽、河南、宁夏、山东和甘肃十 省占比超94.52%，晋陕蒙新四大主产区（山西、陕西、内蒙古、新疆）合计产量38.86亿吨，占全国煤 炭产量的81.66%。需求方面，2024年国民经济运行总体平稳，工业生产平稳增长，固定资产投资规模 扩大，火力发电量同比保持稳定，煤炭需求端韧性较强，但受房地产行业低迷以及基建行业增长放缓的 影响，下游钢铁、建材行业对煤炭的需求表现偏弱，2024年我国煤炭需求量约为52.95万吨，同比增长 3.24%。价格方面，由于非电需求较为疲软，国内煤炭价格整体呈区间震荡，重心小幅下移的走势，受 产品价格下滑影响，2024年我国煤炭行业市场规模降至35233.4亿元。 上市企业：中国神华（601088）、中煤能源（601898）、陕西煤业（601225）、山西焦煤（000983）、 兖矿能源（600188）、华阳股份（600348）、晋控煤业（601001）、江苏国信（002608）、淮河能源 （600575）、辽宁能源（6 ...