相关报告： 动力煤：库存走低，夏季备库需求待发。本周产地煤矿生产基本维持正 常水平。需求方面，南方降雨频繁，水电出力增加，叠加北方气温回升，港 口堆煤出货压力增加；下游复工及基建仍有待提高，工业原料用煤支撑减弱； 北方港口煤炭调入低于调出，煤炭被动去库，港口煤价维持弱势。进入二季 度中下旬，国际贸易环境有所改善，非电用煤需求或有所恢复；同时，内外 贸价差倒挂，预计国内进口煤减少，临近夏季备库需求，国内动力煤价格中 枢预计继续下降空间不大。截至 5 月 16 日，环渤海动力煤现货参考价 629 元/吨，周变化-2.18%；广州港山西优混 610 元/吨，周变化-8.96%；欧洲三 港 Q6000 动力煤 658.20 元/吨，周变化-7.78%。5 月 16 日，北方港口合计 煤炭库存 3047 万吨，周变化-1.99%；长江八港煤炭库存 763.00 万吨，同比 -0.52%；本周环渤海港口日均调入 175.69 万吨，调出 181.79 万吨，日均净 调出 6.10 万吨。 分析师： 冶金煤：外贸环境改善，冶金煤继续去库。煤矿冶金煤生产供应维持正 常。需求方面，本周降准降息政策落地，中美日内瓦联合声明发布后 ...

金十图示：2025年05月19日（周一）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：银行、保险板块涨跌不一，白酒、汽车整车等 跌幅居前，半导体板块涨幅居前 -0.01(-0.19%) -0.01(-0.13%) +0.03(+0.76%) 保险 中国太保 中国平安 中国人保 01 3639.63亿市值 3213.19亿市值 9716.98亿市值 4.60亿成交额 11.02亿成交额 6.91亿成交额 53.36 8.23 33.40 -0.03(-0.06%) -0.03(-0.09%) +0.02(+0.24%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 19797.05亿市值 2451.03亿市值 5011.54亿市值 38.40亿成交额 6.14亿成交额 20.76亿成交额 1575.95 129.11 200.91 -38.18(-2.37%) -4.09(-2.00%) -1.97(-1.50%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2321.53亿市值 2789.36亿市值 3247.10亿市值 12.09亿成交额 15.83亿成交额 7.58亿成交额 139.70 434.60 668 ...

印尼禁止煤炭出口，国内煤炭市场或将紧张，国内煤价将提前止跌企稳。 投资建议。当前煤炭价格已经处于预期底部，估值明显偏低，伴随动力煤长协基准提升、焦煤长协价预 计维持高位，资源优质企业具备长期价值，转型企业具备成长空间，板块估值提升开启，1）当前首 推：中国神华、靖远煤电、电投能源、兖矿能源、中国旭阳集团；2）推荐：陕西煤业、淮北矿业、中 煤能源、山西焦煤、潞安环能、兰花科创、盘江股份、平煤股份。 1）事件：根据12月31日印尼政府新规，2022年1月禁止煤炭出口。 2）本次印尼限制煤炭出口，我们认为核心原因在于印尼煤炭产量不及预期，且国内消费量增加，导致 煤炭供不应求。印尼矿产能源部公布最新统计数据显示，截至12月17日印尼煤炭开采量达5.81亿吨，完 成年度产量目标的93%，全年产量预计略低于6.25亿吨目标， 2022 年煤炭产量目标提高到 6.37 ~6.64 亿 吨，但由于国内需求提升，出口潜力将有下降。 3）中国2020年/2021年1-11月进口煤及褐煤30399/29232万吨，其中来自印尼13783/17822万吨，占进口 45%/61%、占国内产量3.6%/4.9%，印尼煤供应对国内影响巨大 ...

投资建议：当前煤炭板块已处于预期底部，估值明显偏低，伴随动力煤长协基准提升、焦煤长协价预计 维持高位，资源优质企业具备长期价值，转型企业具备成长空间，板块估值提升开启，1）全年主线： 高股息、绿电转型、成长性煤化工，推荐：靖远煤电、电投能源、兖矿能源、中国旭阳集团等；2）推 荐资源优质企业：陕西煤业、淮北矿业、中煤能源、山西焦煤、潞安环能、兰花科创、盘江股份、平煤 股份。 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期；煤炭供给维持高位。 预计高分红将持续，带动煤炭板块估值长期提升。煤企将于2022年3月份后陆续披露年报，部分企业此 前的股东回报方案已经到期（如行业龙头中国神华上个股东回报方案为2019~2021年），新的分红方案 值得期待。行业资本支出顶部已现，市场格局持续向好，"碳中和"战略大趋势下行业资本开支将持续下 降，"资本支出-现金流-财务-利润-分红"将出现可持续优化。由于担忧煤炭价格变动导致盈利中枢变 动，市场此前并未给与高股息估值，随着未来盈利稳健、高分红更加确定，高股息公司的估值将得到持 续提升。 业绩预告陆续披露，更多的是超预期。本周兰花科创、安源煤业、山煤国际、靖远煤电等企业持续相继 披露2021年业绩预 ...

导读： 开年至今煤价大幅上涨，发改委出手巩固保供稳价成果，我们判断煤价将于合理区间上限运行，煤炭股投资更应淡化 贝塔、探寻阿尔法，高分红&转型机会将贯穿全年。 投资要点： 开年至今煤价持续上涨，基本面具备上涨基础。2022年初至今，秦皇岛(Q5500)现货煤(山西产)从1月初的790元/吨上 涨至1月末的1070元/吨，这波煤价的上涨基础在于港口煤价跌幅过快与坑口煤价倒挂，贸易商向港口拉煤积极性下 降、港口库存持续偏低；情绪催化在于印尼宣布限制煤炭出口开启；直接推动在于强用电量增长以及电厂补库带来的 需求超预期，随着经济稳增长的政策推动，需求将更加强劲，对煤炭价格形成有效支撑。 发改委出手巩固保供稳价成果，煤价将于合理区间上限运行。2月9日发改委、能源局联合召开会议，强调煤企要抓紧 恢复正常生产供应，严格落实保供稳价政策要求，规范价格行为，并促进煤炭价格稳定运行在合理区间。我们认为煤 价上涨或将暂缓，但无短期快速下跌的风险，主因：1）冷春及经济稳增长将带来用煤用电需求提升；2）印尼基准煤 价2月上调至188.4美元/吨，换算为国内(Q5500)到港成本价已超过1237元/吨，高于国内煤价，进口煤供给无增量；3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing sustained profitability, with a strong cash advantage and high dividends, indicating significant hidden value and potential for substantial valuation increases [1][2][3] Group 1: Performance Overview - In 2021, the coal industry saw a significant increase in total profit growth of 225.3%, with listed companies achieving a net profit growth of 74.7% [3][7] - In Q1 2022, coal prices remained high, leading to a year-on-year profit increase of 191.4% for listed companies, with specific segments like thermal coal and anthracite showing growth rates of 87.6% and 189.4% respectively [3][10][12] - The industry's loss ratio decreased to a near four-year low of 22% by December 2021, but rose to 33% in March 2022, primarily due to losses from small, high-cost coal mines [3][16] Group 2: Financial Analysis - The coal sector's operating net cash flow significantly increased in 2021, with a 73% year-on-year growth, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [19][24] - The debt ratio decreased to 47.0% in Q1 2022, with financial costs also reaching a record low of 1.2%, reflecting improved financial health [23][24] - The sector's cash flow from operations continued to show strong growth in Q1 2022, with a 44% increase year-on-year [19][24] Group 3: Operational Analysis - The coal price surge in 2021 led to a substantial increase in gross profit margins for coal mining companies, with a 53.4% rise in sales revenue against a 23.8% increase in costs [30][32] - Cost increases were generally controllable, with the average cost for 25 coal mining companies rising by 23.8%, driven by higher raw material and labor costs [32][35] - Despite a decline in approved coal mining capacity due to supply-side reforms, many listed companies have significant construction and planning projects, indicating growth potential [36][37] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The coal industry is expected to maintain high prices due to global energy shortages, with significant demand for coal driven by geopolitical factors [45][46] - Companies like China Shenhua and others are recommended for their high dividends and growth potential in the coal chemical sector [52] - The market is likely to reassess the profitability and dividend capabilities of coal companies, with substantial valuation uplift potential [51][52]

点击小程序查看报告原文 2025年5月16日盘后，恒生指数公司公布了其定期的一季度指数调整结果（此次审议考察截至2025年3月31日，一般在 考察日期后的8周内公布）。此次调整范围涵盖港股主要旗舰指数如恒生、国企指数和恒生科技指数；此外直接决定港 股通可投资范围的恒生综合指数也有局部调整。我们综合分析影响供投资者参考。 指数调整及影响：美的集团与中通快递-W纳入恒指，比亚迪股份纳入恒生科技 ► 成分股变化：美的集团与中通快递-W纳入恒生指数；比亚迪股份纳入恒生科技，阅文集团被剔除。 1) 恒生指数： 此次调整纳入美的集团与中通快递-W，纳入权重分别为0.33%与0.44%，调整后成分股数量增至85只。 2) 恒 生国 企： 此次无纳入剔除，成分股数量维持50只不变。 3) 恒生科 技 ： 此次调整纳入比亚迪股份，纳入权重为8%；阅文集团被剔除，剔除前权重为0.49%。成分股维持在30 只不变。 ► 被动资金流向测算：关注对网易-S、比亚迪股份与中通快递-W等的正面影响；对阅文集团与万洲国际的负面影响。 基于Bloomberg汇总，追踪恒生指数的ETF资金规模约为290.5亿美元，追踪国企和恒生科技指数ETF规 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that from May 12 to 13, 2025, southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 42.13 billion, primarily flowing into the banking, semiconductor, pharmaceutical, non-bank financial, and durable consumer goods sectors, with the top five industries collectively seeing a net inflow of HKD 45.32 billion [2][6][18] - During the same period, foreign institutional funds experienced a net outflow of HKD 21.71 billion, with significant inflows into non-bank financials, hardware equipment, automotive and parts, home appliances, and media, totaling a net inflow of HKD 32.74 billion across the top five industries [6][29] - The report notes that from May 7 to 13, 2025, southbound funds had a net inflow of HKD 6.25 billion, mainly into banking, discretionary retail, telecommunications services, coal, and pharmaceuticals, with the top five industries seeing a total net inflow of HKD 141.79 billion [7][36] Group 2 - The report indicates that over the past 30 days, the inflow of southbound funds has decreased, while the liquidity surplus in the Hong Kong banking market has significantly increased [5][14] - The report mentions that the "public offering new regulations" have notably enhanced the attractiveness of allocating to large financial sectors in A-shares [5][12] - The report also states that the premium of A-shares over H-shares is currently at a relatively high level, reflecting a divergence in valuation perceptions between investors in both markets [5][20]

证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 煤炭开采 25 年 1-4 月澳煤出口同比-8.1%，因停产澳大利亚焦煤价格上行 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2025 年 5 月 16 日，原油价格方面，布伦 特原油期货结算价为 65.41 美元/桶，较上周上涨 1.50 美元/桶（+2.35%）； WTI 原油期货结算价为 62.49 美元/桶，较上周上涨 1.47 美元/桶 （+2.41%）。天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 11.88 美元/百 万英热，较上周下跌 0.13 美元/百万英热（-1.1%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期 货结算价 35.18 欧元/兆瓦时，较上周上涨 0.42 欧元/兆瓦时（+1.2%）； 美国 HH 天然气期货结算价为 3.33 美元/百万英热，较上周下跌 0.46 美元 /百万英热（-12.1%）。煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到 岸价 94.5 美元/吨，较上周下跌 2.6 美元/吨（-2.7%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤 炭（6000K）FOB 价 99.0 美元/吨，较上周上涨 0.1 美元/吨（+0.1 ...

Core Points - China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd. reported a total coal production of 82.5 million tons and total power generation of 50.42 billion kWh in Q1 2025, with operating revenue of 69.585 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.949 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Coal Sales and Market Conditions - In Q1 2025, coal sales volume decreased by 15.3% year-on-year to 99.3 million tons, with self-produced coal sales down by 4.7% and purchased coal sales down by 40.4% [2] - The decline in coal sales was attributed to faster recovery of production capacity compared to demand, higher temperatures, and elevated coal inventory levels, leading to weak market conditions [2] Group 2: Coal Chemical Business Performance - The coal chemical business achieved a profit of approximately 43 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 168.8%, primarily due to lower raw coal procurement prices and reduced repair costs compared to the previous year [3] Group 3: Intelligent Mining Development - By Q1 2025, the company had established 3 national-level intelligent demonstration coal mines and 7 advanced intelligent coal mines, with plans to build 7 more advanced intelligent coal mines by 2025 [4] Group 4: Power Generation Investment - The company plans to invest approximately 17.4 billion yuan in the power generation sector in 2025, with 6 coal-fired power projects under construction, totaling 12 units and approximately 9.34 million kW of installed capacity [5] Group 5: Power Generation Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's power generation decreased by 10.7% year-on-year to 50.42 billion kWh, influenced by a nationwide decline in thermal power generation and significant reductions in certain provinces [6][7] Group 6: Future Growth Drivers - The company aims to strengthen its integrated operational capabilities and focus on clean and efficient coal utilization, adapting to the evolving energy market [8] - The company is actively pursuing project investments, mergers, and acquisitions to enhance its operational capacity and resource base, including a recent acquisition that added significant resources and power generation capacity [8] - Continuous investment in R&D, maintaining over 4 billion yuan annually, is aimed at enhancing efficiency and exploring new technologies for future growth [8]