Core Viewpoint - The Guangfa CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (520900) has experienced a decline in both share count and total assets in 2024, indicating potential challenges in attracting investor interest [1][2]. Fund Overview - The fund was established on June 26, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of October 27, 2024, the fund's total share count is 1.593 billion shares, with a total asset size of 1.703 billion yuan [1]. - The fund's share count has decreased by 36.42% and total assets by 26.58% since December 31, 2024 [1]. Liquidity Analysis - Over the last 20 trading days, the fund has accumulated a total trading volume of 1.108 billion yuan, averaging 55.42 million yuan per day [1]. - Year-to-date, the fund has seen a total trading volume of 18.107 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 91.92 million yuan across 197 trading days [1]. Fund Management - The current fund managers are Huo Huaming and Lü Xin, with respective management periods yielding returns of 8.60% and 22.17% [2]. - Huo Huaming has managed the fund since its inception, while Lü Xin is set to manage it starting April 30, 2025 [2]. Top Holdings - The fund's major holdings include: - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (10.86% holding) - China Mobile (10.32% holding) - China Shenhua Energy (9.70% holding) - CNOOC Limited (9.52% holding) - COSCO Shipping Holdings (8.42% holding) - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (7.40% holding) - China Telecom (4.53% holding) - China Unicom (3.44% holding) - China Coal Energy (2.59% holding) - China Resources Land (2.22% holding) [2][3].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520890) closed down 0.89% with a trading volume of 37.99 million yuan on October 28, 2024 [1] - The fund was established on September 4, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1] - As of October 27, 2024, the fund's latest share count was 74.008 million, with a total size of 108 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 39.83% in shares and 26.31% in size year-to-date [1] Fund Performance - The current fund manager, Li Qian, has managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 45.70% during her tenure [2] - The fund's performance benchmark is the Hang Seng Stock Connect High Dividend Low Volatility Index [1] Holdings and Liquidity - The top holdings of the fund include Shougang Resources, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy, with respective weightings of 3.76%, 2.94%, and 2.17% [2] - Over the last 20 trading days, the fund's cumulative trading amount reached 1.311 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 65.55 million yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39.052 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0% (restated). In Q3 2025, the net profit was 14.411 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year but up 13.5% quarter-on-quarter. Overall, the increase in sales and decrease in costs offset the impact of falling prices, indicating strong profitability resilience for the leading company [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Coal Sector - Production and sales showed significant recovery in Q3 2025. The company achieved a coal production and sales volume of 25,090 and 24,870 million tons respectively for the first three quarters, down 0.4% and 1.4% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, production and sales volumes were 8,550 and 8,680 million tons, up 2.3% and 2.7% year-on-year, and up 3.1% and 4.1% quarter-on-quarter [13]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal for the first three quarters was 470 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton (10.6% year-on-year). In Q3 2025, the selling price was 455 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton (12.9% year-on-year) [13]. - The cost of self-produced coal decreased significantly due to lower safety production fees, maintenance costs, and labor costs. The cost for the first three quarters was 284 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (5.7% year-on-year), while in Q3 it was 278 yuan/ton, down 6.2 yuan/ton (2.2% year-on-year) [13]. - The gross profit per ton of self-produced coal for the first three quarters was 187 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton year-on-year. In Q3, it was 177 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton (26% year-on-year) [13]. Power Sector - The company saw an increase in electricity generation and sales in Q3 2025. The total electricity sales for the first three quarters were 1,531 billion kWh, down 89 billion kWh year-on-year. In Q3, the sales volume was 602 billion kWh, down 15 billion kWh year-on-year but up 147 billion kWh quarter-on-quarter [13]. - The average selling price of electricity for the first three quarters was 0.426 yuan/kWh, down 0.017 yuan/kWh year-on-year. In Q3, it was 0.409 yuan/kWh, down 0.02 yuan/kWh year-on-year [13]. - The cost of electricity decreased more significantly than the selling price, leading to improved profitability in the power business. The gross profit per kWh improved by 0.01 yuan/kWh for the first three quarters and by 0.03 yuan/kWh in Q3 year-on-year [13]. Dividend and Valuation - The company is characterized by its high dividend yield, with expected earnings of approximately 51.2 billion, 54.6 billion, and 55.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The corresponding PE ratios are projected to be 16.5x, 15.5x, and 15.2x. The dividend yield for 2025, based on a 77% payout ratio, is approximately 4.7% [13].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 28 日 中国神华（601088.SH） 煤炭产销同环比修复，电力业务盈利实现较大幅增长 周期/煤炭开采 中国神华发布 2025 年三季度报告，2025 年前三季度公司实现营业收入 2131.5 亿元，同比下降 16.6%；归母净利润 390.5 亿元，同比下降 10.0%；扣非归母 净利润 387.04 亿元，同比下降 15.9%；经营性现金流净额 652.53 亿元，同比 下降 19.9%。单季度看，Q3 营业收入 750.42 亿元，同比下降 13.1%，环比增 长 9.51%；归母净利润 144.11 亿元，同比下降 6.2%，环比增长 13.54%。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：42.69 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 19869 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 16491 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 848.2 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 704.0 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 20.9 | | ROE（TTM） | 12.4 | | 资产负债率 | 24.4% | | 主 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance is driven by increased electricity generation and reduced costs, leading to stable operations in Q3 [5] - The company reported a revenue of 213.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39.05 billion yuan, down 10.0% year-on-year [6] - The company is addressing industry competition through asset acquisitions, enhancing resource allocation and integrated operational capabilities [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price as of October 27, 2025, was 42.69 yuan, with a market capitalization of 848.19 billion yuan [3] Financial Data - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 75.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.5% [6] - The average coal price was 476 yuan per ton in Q3, down 1.0% from the previous quarter [6] - The company’s production cost for self-produced coal was 163.4 yuan per ton in Q3, reflecting a slight increase of 1.7% quarter-on-quarter [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have a net profit of 53.07 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 16.0 [9] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 are estimated at 331 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.18% [8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 11.84% in 2025 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 213.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 39.05 billion yuan, down 10.0% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 75.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.5%, with a net profit of 14.41 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year but up 13.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The report suggests an upward revision of profit forecasts due to higher-than-expected coal prices since the peak season, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 52.7 billion, 54.4 billion, and 55.4 billion yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Coal Sector - In Q3 2025, the company produced 85.5 million tons of coal, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1%. Coal sales were 111.6 million tons, down 3.5% year-on-year but up 5.7% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased to 455 yuan per ton, down 87 yuan year-on-year and 17 yuan quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to delayed adjustments in long-term contract prices [2] - The coal segment achieved a gross profit of 15.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 25% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter [2] Power Generation Sector - The company’s power generation and sales volumes in Q3 2025 were 64.1 billion and 60.2 billion kWh, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 2.3% and 2.5%, but significant quarter-on-quarter increases of 32.5% and 32.4% [3] - The average selling price of electricity was 376 yuan per MWh, down 4.9% year-on-year and 2.6% quarter-on-quarter, while the average cost of electricity was 298 yuan per MWh, down 14.1% year-on-year and 12.4% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The power generation segment reported a profit of 5.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 58% quarter-on-quarter and 105% year-on-year [3] Transportation Sector - The transportation segment, including railways and ports, reported revenues of 32.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with profits of 10.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [4] - The port segment's gross profit increased due to lower costs, while the shipping segment saw a decline in gross profit due to adjustments in shipping operations [4] Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 52.7 billion, 54.4 billion, and 55.4 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.3, 9.9, and 9.6 [4] - The report indicates a stable dividend return and strong operational synergy across its seven business segments, reinforcing the "Outperform the Market" rating [4]

Core Insights - The company reported its Q3 2025 results on October 25, showing a revenue of 213.15 billion RMB for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decline of 16.6% after restatement, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39.05 billion RMB, down 10.0% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 75.04 billion RMB, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.51%, but a year-on-year decline of 13.10%, with a net profit of 14.41 billion RMB, up 13.54% quarter-on-quarter and down 6.24% year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profitability - The company's self-produced coal sales price decreased, leading to a decline in gross margin. For the first three quarters of 2025, the coal production was 250.9 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, with sales volume at 248.7 million tons, down 1.3% year-on-year, and an average selling price of 470 RMB/ton, down 10.6% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit per ton was 187 RMB, a decline of 17.1% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 39.7%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] Power Generation and Sales - Power generation and sales volumes both decreased year-on-year, with total power generation for the first three quarters at 162.87 billion kWh, down 5.4%, and total sales at 153.09 billion kWh, down 5.5% [3] - The average selling price for electricity was 382 RMB/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 4.50% [3] Cost Management - Management expenses increased while total expenses slightly decreased. Total expenses for the first three quarters were 9.49 billion RMB, down 2.87% year-on-year, with management expenses rising by 2.46% to 7.50 billion RMB [3] Dividend Policy - The company has a shareholder return plan for 2025-2027, committing to a cash dividend of no less than 65% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders, with a proposed mid-year dividend of 19.47 billion RMB for 2025 [4] - Assuming a maintained dividend payout ratio of 79% for 2025, the expected dividend yield is 5.0% based on the closing price on October 27 [4] Earnings Forecast - Due to rising coal prices, the company adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 53.18 billion, 57.66 billion, and 59.36 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.68, 2.90, and 2.99 RMB [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua Energy reported mixed financial results for 3Q25, with net profit showing a decline year-over-year but an increase quarter-over-quarter, primarily driven by the power business's performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - Net profit attributable to shareholders of Shenhua A-shares decreased by 6% YoY but increased by 14% QoQ to Rmb14.4 billion, while recurring net profit fell 13% YoY but rose 14% QoQ to Rmb14.4 billion [1]. - For Shenhua H-shares, net profit dropped 12% YoY but grew 10% QoQ to Rmb14.7 billion [1]. Business Segments - The power business significantly contributed to the improved profit, with gross profit rising Rmb1.93 billion QoQ to Rmb27.5 billion in 3Q25. In contrast, the coal business's gross profit fell Rmb1.01 billion QoQ to Rmb16 billion [2]. - Commercial coal output increased by 2.3% YoY and 3.1% QoQ to 85.5 million tonnes, while self-produced coal sales rose by 2.7% YoY and 4.1% QoQ to 86.8 million tonnes [2]. Pricing and Costs - The selling price of self-produced coal decreased by 13% YoY and 3.7% QoQ to Rmb455 per tonne in 3Q25 [3]. - Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal thermal coal prices fell 21% YoY but rose 5.6% QoQ, with expectations for price improvement in 4Q25 due to rising coal prices since October [4]. - Production cost per tonne of self-produced coal fell 5.3% YoY but increased 3.0% QoQ to Rmb164.5 [4]. Electricity Business - In 3Q25, the electricity sales price decreased by 4.9% YoY and 2.6% QoQ to Rmb0.376 per kWh, while sales volume rose 32% QoQ to 60.18 billion kWh [4]. - Electricity sales cost fell 14% YoY and 12% QoQ to Rmb0.298 per kWh, with expectations for slight recovery in costs in 4Q25 as coal prices rebound [4]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were raised by 6% and 3% for A-shares, and by 5% and 3% for H-shares, now projected at Rmb53.4 billion and Rmb54.2 billion for A-shares, and Rmb56.5 billion and Rmb57.3 billion for H-shares [5]. - A-shares are trading at 15.8x 2025e and 15.6x 2026e P/E, while H-shares are at 13.3x 2025e and 12.9x 2026e P/E [5]. Target Prices - Target prices for A-shares and H-shares were raised by 10% and 25% to Rmb46 and HK$45, respectively, implying 17.1x 2025e and 16.9x 2026e P/E for A-shares, and 14.5x 2025e and 14.1x 2026e P/E for H-shares [6]. - The target prices suggest upside potential of 8.2% for A-shares and 9.2% for H-shares [6].

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua's financial performance in the first three quarters shows a decline in revenue and net profit, attributed to lower coal and electricity prices and sales volumes, while the company emphasizes its integrated business model and future transformation pressures in the power sector [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, China Shenhua reported operating revenue of 213.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39.05 billion yuan, down 10.0% [1]. - The coal sales volume reached 316.5 million tons, with an average price of 496 yuan per ton, reflecting a 14.3% decline from the previous year [2]. - The company's coal production cost per ton decreased by 7.5%, leading to a gross margin of 30.5%, which is an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The coal market is expected to maintain a high level of consumption for an extended period, despite uncertainties in price trends due to various factors such as economic conditions and climate change [3]. - The company aims to control coal production costs with a target increase not exceeding 6% [3]. Group 3: Power Generation Segment - The power generation segment contributed approximately 15% to the company's profits, with total profit reaching 10.14 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [4]. - Despite profit growth, the company's power generation volume decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, attributed to regional declines in electricity generation [5]. - Future profitability in the power sector is expected to shift towards capacity fees and auxiliary services, as traditional revenue sources face increased competition from renewable energy [5].

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua (01088) announced a mid-term dividend of HKD 0.98 per share, to be distributed on December 24, 2025, for the period ending June 30, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The mid-term dividend reflects the company's ongoing commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] - The dividend distribution date is set for December 24, 2025, indicating a planned approach to shareholder returns [1] - The dividend amount of HKD 0.98 per share signifies the company's financial health and profitability for the specified period [1]