如果这些增产和可以稳步推进并且实现的话,大概会到7万吨左右的一个产能,但其实和核电这边的需求还是会有差距,其他的增量的话相对来说都比较小,其实我们看到最大的增量还是会来自于哈萨克和加拿大的这个副产,因为之前在天然油价格比较低迷的时候, 加拿大是曾经关闭过两个矿山,然后这个哈萨克也是把它所有的矿山的产能都调减到了80%。但是的话我们看到这一部分的其实不确定性还是非常大的,因为哈萨克现在就是缺酸,现在的话还没有一个很明确的一个解决方案,因为它现在远期的解决方案就是要在哈萨克境内建一个差不多80万吨产能的一个硫酸厂, 但是这一块呢,之前它是预计二六年可以建成,但是现在它已经就在一季度的时候已经明确提出要这个推迟到二七年,近期的一些方案的话就是优化采购,但这一部分的话,既然哈远工说可能还是要等中期那个时候,大概八月份才会知道具体的一个解决情况怎么样。 加拿大的话它其实就是23年也是没有达到它当时的一个复产计划的,所以当时有差不多一个10%的miss,这一部分当时也是催生了油价的一个上涨,因为当时这个Chemical它也是在市场上做了一些新货的采购,然后同时其实大家从它的这个事件里面也是看出来就是其实天然油的复产没有之 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for CGN Mining Company (1164 HK) [9][34]. Core Views - CGN Mining is positioned to benefit from the recovery of the global nuclear power sector and the continuous growth in natural uranium demand, aiming to become a leading international supplier of natural uranium [5][10]. - The company has a strong financial performance, with significant revenue growth driven by its natural uranium business, which accounted for nearly all of its revenue in 2023 [14][28]. - The global natural uranium market is experiencing upward price trends due to supply shortages and increased geopolitical tensions, supporting a bullish outlook for uranium prices in the medium to long term [21][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Positioning - CGN Mining is a subsidiary of CGN Group, the largest nuclear power group in China and the third largest globally, focusing on the development and trade of natural uranium resources [10][19]. 2. Financial Performance - In 2023, CGN Mining achieved a revenue of HKD 7,368 million, a year-on-year increase of 101.04%, primarily from natural uranium sales [14][19]. - The company’s net profit decreased by 3.44% to HKD 497.1 million, indicating potential concerns regarding cost control and profitability [14][19]. 3. Global Uranium Price Trends - The report highlights a significant increase in uranium prices, with expectations for continued growth due to supply constraints and rising demand for nuclear energy [21][28]. - The average sales price for natural uranium is projected to rise to USD 79.5, USD 81.4, and USD 82.6 per pound from 2024 to 2026 [6][32]. 4. Internal Synergies with CGN Group - CGN Mining benefits from its close ties with CGN Group, which has a projected demand for approximately 6,120 tons of natural uranium in 2024, indicating a substantial supply gap compared to the company's current sales volume [6][31]. - The company has secured flexible pricing agreements that will allow it to capitalize on rising uranium prices [6][32]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for FY24-26 anticipates revenues of HKD 9,203 million, HKD 11,267 million, and HKD 13,162 million, with corresponding net profits of HKD 543 million, HKD 642 million, and HKD 745 million [6][33]. - A DCF valuation model estimates a target price of HKD 2.81 per share [6][33].

Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 reached HK$7,363,123, a 102% increase from HK$3,648,680 in 2022[14] - Operating profit for the year was HK$690,932, up from HK$628,842 in 2022, representing a 9.4% increase[14] - Profit for the year amounted to HK$497,099, slightly down from HK$514,915 in 2022, a decrease of 3.2%[14] - The gross profit margin decreased to 1.79% in 2023 from 4.06% in 2022[145] - EBITDA increased to HK$692.81 million in 2023, up from HK$630.70 million in 2022[145] - The EBITDA/Revenue ratio fell to 9.41% in 2023 compared to 17.29% in 2022[145] - The net profit margin decreased to 6.75% in 2023 from 14.11% in 2022[145] - The Group's profit for 2023 was HK$497 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3% from HK$515 million in 2022[148] - The cost of sales for 2023 was HK$7,231 million, an increase of 107% from HK$3,501 million in 2022, attributed to higher business volume in the natural uranium market[153] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of December 31, 2023, were HK$6,750,363, a decrease from HK$6,865,707 in 2022[15] - Total liabilities decreased to HK$2,870,172 from HK$3,517,568 in 2022, a reduction of 18.4%[15] - The equity attributable to owners of the Company increased to HK$3,880,191 from HK$3,348,139 in 2022, a growth of 15.8%[15] - Net current assets increased by 115% to HK$823 million as of December 31, 2023, compared to HK$383 million in 2022, attributed to the repayment of bank borrowings[167] - Total current assets were HK$2,214 million as of December 31, 2023, representing a decrease of 10% from HK$2,447 million in 2022, mainly due to reduced inventories[169] - The Group's total non-current assets increased by 3% to HK$4,536 million as of December 31, 2023, from HK$4,419 million in 2022, primarily due to increased interests in joint ventures and associates[172] Market and Industry Trends - The international spot price of natural uranium has been rapidly fluctuating upwards, with prices expected to exceed US$100/lb by January 2024[17] - The global nuclear power industry is experiencing a recovery, leading to increased demand for uranium resources[17] - The World Nuclear Association raised its global installed nuclear power capacity forecast to 686 GWe by 2040, an increase of 12% compared to the previous forecast[34] - The International Energy Agency indicated that nuclear power generation capacity in Asia will account for 30% of the world's electricity generation by 2026, up from 28% in 2022[35] - Global natural uranium demand for nuclear power plants is expected to total 103,808 tU by 2035, representing a 36% increase from the end of 2023[110] Production and Operations - The Company plans to enhance its primary exploration capacity and acquire more high-quality equity sources in 2024[25] - The Company aims to control production costs and achieve its annual production targets while developing the PLS project[25] - The South Tortkudu mine in Kazakhstan is expected to start production by the end of 2023, with a projected capacity of 2,600 tU/year in 2024-2025[66] - The PLS project is expected to enter production in 2028 with a design capacity of 30,000tU and a lifespan of 10 years, having recently submitted a construction application to the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission[71] - The Semizbay Mine achieved an actual uranium extraction of 976tU, completing its annual production tasks by 100.2%, with a production cost of US$27/lbU3O8[83][89] Strategic Initiatives - The Company aims to strengthen its business dealings with global nuclear power plant owners and actively explore new trading opportunities while controlling operational risks[129] - The Company will pursue high-quality uranium project opportunities globally and seek strategic partnerships with renowned uranium producers and traders to ensure stable uranium resources for nuclear power generation[130] - The Company is exploring medium and long-term equity incentive programs to enhance management participation and effectiveness[22] - The Company will implement medium and long-term incentive plans, such as a share option scheme, to enhance employee loyalty and motivation towards achieving strategic objectives[131] Investor Relations and Market Capitalization - The Company's market capitalization increased by 112% from the beginning of the year, reflecting growing attention from individual and institutional investors[20] - The proportion of equity interest held by institutional investors increased from 11.44% at the end of 2022 to 15.39% at the end of 2023[106] - The company enhanced investor relations through dual channels of offline and online communication, achieving satisfactory results[97] - The company delivered keynote speeches at significant investor summits, highlighting its strategies in the natural uranium market[104] Challenges and Risks - The Company is facing challenges in raw material procurement and production scheduling in Kazakhstan due to inflation and geopolitical factors[23] - The company faced challenges due to the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and market volatility but managed to exceed performance indicators[95] - The Group's finance costs increased by 113% to HK$131 million in 2023, up from HK$62 million in 2022, primarily due to a year-on-year increase in interest-bearing debt and high USD interest rates[167] Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) - The Company released its first standalone ESG report, demonstrating its commitment to social responsibility and a low-carbon corporate image[19]

中广核矿业（1164 HK） | 2024年3月25日 香港股市 | 新能源 | 核燃料 公司点评 中广核矿业（1164 HK） 未评级 FY23 铀矿业务持续增长 股票数据（更新至2024年3月22日） 2023年盈利逊预期 现价 1.65港元 2023 年股东净利润同比下跌 3.5%至 5.0 亿元(港币，下同)，低于市场预测的 5.6 亿元 10.6%，主因(一)天然铀贸易业务价差收窄导致公司毛利率由FY22 的4.1%下跌至FY23 的 总市值 12,541.13 百万 港元 1.8%，公司毛利同比下跌 10.9%至1.3 亿元；(二)财务开支同比上涨113.1%至 1.3 亿元； 流通股比例 27.78% (三)去年联营公司奥公司就 2018-20 年期间违规开采铀矿向哈萨克斯坦政府支付 2.0 亿元 已发行总股本 7,600.68百万 罚款。因违规发生在2021年中广核矿业参股前，奥公司应转回应占款项但尚未进行。 52周价格区间 0.78-2.12港元 天然铀矿主业仍表现亮丽 3个月日均成交额 63.53百万 港元 2023 年公司天然铀矿主业 (合营及联营企业运营)仍表现亮丽。铀矿总产量(tU) ...

h 股 c r a 票 e s e R 研 y tiu [ FT la ab sle h_T Nitl oe] t e: CGN Mining (01164 HK) Kevin Guo 郭勇 究 q (852) 2509 5317 E 快讯： 中广核矿业 (01164 HK) yong.guo@gtjas.com.hk 25 March 2024 [Table_Summary] 铀的基本面维持强劲 e  我们维持中广核矿业（“公司”）“买入”的投资评级，目标价为 1.85 港元。我们的目标价对应9.4倍和8.7倍2024-2025 快 to N 年市盈率。我们预计铀价将在2024年因强劲的基本面而继续上升，公司的矿产品产量将稳步增长。 讯 h s a lF  我们预计铀价上升仍将是主要的利润驱动因素。长期而言，铀的供需基本面预计维持强劲，我们预计铀价在2024年 将继续上升并维持高位。铀矿行业投资不足将对全球铀供应产生长期影响，未来5年铀产量增长有限。但随着核电装 机的增长，全球铀需求将稳步增长。世界各国政府已经更改了核电相关政策，特别是在风电和太阳能发电占比上升以 及需要更加稳定的电源之时。因此，随着风 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中广核矿业(01164)近期连续反弹，早盘再涨超4%。截至发稿，涨4.85%，报1.73港 元，成交额2175.82万港元。 消息面上，中广核矿业发布年度业绩，该集团取得营业额73.63亿港元，同比增加101.8%；公司拥有人 应占溢利4.97亿港元，同比减少3.46%。中金公司指出，公司2023年业绩低于预期，主要由于奥公司罚 款尚未转回和矿山生产成本提升。 该行称，中长期天然铀价格有望延续上行趋势。受到Cameco增产规划等因素影响，天然铀现货价格从 前期高点的106美元/磅回调至3月20日的88美元/磅。虽然短期有所调整，但天然铀价格长期向好趋势不 改，一是全球核电需求复苏将是大势所趋；二是全球天然铀供给扰动频繁；三是哈萨克斯坦的铀矿正在 逐步面临枯竭。 ...

中广核矿业（01164.HK） 买入-B(维持) 业绩符合预期，长期看好天然铀行业景气度上行 2024年3月24日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述  公司发布2023年业绩公告，2023年公司实现营收73.63亿港元，同比 增加102%；实现净利润4.97亿港元，同比减少3%。 事件点评  公司天然铀量价齐升。2023 年公司天然铀产量为 2620 tU，同比增加 3.7%，其中权益产量为1284tU；平均销售价格为64美元/磅U O ，同比增 3 8 资料来源：最闻 加27.1%。谢公司（谢矿+伊矿）：根据计划产能的80%安排生产，实际采铀 市场数据：2024年3月22日 量为976tU，完成年度计划100.2%，扣除加工损失量，全年共生产963tU。 收盘价（港元）： 1.650 奥公司（中矿+扎矿）：根据计划产能的80%安排生产，实际采铀量为1644tU， 年内最高/最低（港元）： 2.120/0.780 完成年度计划95.6%，扣除加工损失量，全年共生产1642tU；其中扎矿产能 正在建设中，预计2025/2030年总产能分别达到500/900tU，随着项目的建 总股本（亿）： ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 中广核矿业(01164.HK) 2024年03月25日 中广核矿业（1164.HK）：23 年 买入（维持） 所属行业：原材料业/一般金属及矿石 受奥公司罚款影响溢利小幅下 当前价格(港币)：1.65元 降，长期或受益于铀价上涨 证券分析师 翟堃 投资要点 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 张崇欣  公司发布 2023 年年度业绩公告。公司 2023 年全年实现营业额 73.68 亿港元， 较 2022年的 36.65亿港元增加 101.04%；实现溢利 4.97亿港元，较 2022年的 资格编号：S0120522100003 邮箱：zhangcx＠tebon.com.cn 5.15 亿港元同比减少 3%。营收增加主要原因是中广核国际销售公司把握天然铀 市场活跃时机，全年销售量增加；净利润减少的主要原因系奥公司罚款对公司投 研究助理 资收益影响约 0.95 亿港元，若剔除本因素，公司受益于天然铀现货价格上升， 谷瑜 2023 年实现净利约 5.87 亿港元，较 2022 年同期上涨 14%。公司 20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The recovery of uranium prices is gaining momentum, and the company's performance is expected to grow steadily [4] - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 7.368 billion, a year-on-year increase of 101.04%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 497 million, a decrease of 3.46% due to rising raw material costs [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of HKD 852 million, HKD 929 million, and HKD 1.089 billion respectively [4] - The company is a leader in the uranium industry, with smooth progress in uranium mining projects [4] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's financial expenses increased significantly to HKD 131 million, a year-on-year increase of 113% due to rising interest rates and increased debt [5] - The total revenue and net profit projections for 2024-2026 are as follows: - Revenue: HKD 8.233 billion (2024E), HKD 9.462 billion (2025E), HKD 10.498 billion (2026E) - Net Profit: HKD 852 million (2024E), HKD 929 million (2025E), HKD 1.089 billion (2026E) [8] Uranium Production and Market Outlook - The company's uranium equity production in 2023 was 1,276 tons, with contributions from various projects [6] - The long-term outlook for uranium prices is positive, driven by stable nuclear energy development and increasing global nuclear power installations [7] - The supply-demand gap for natural uranium is expected to continue to widen in the medium to long term, indicating a robust recovery in uranium prices [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline in 2023, primarily due to a significant drop in the mainland China market, but is expected to recover in the medium to long term due to strong technological barriers and manufacturing advantages [3][5] - The company is focusing on expanding its research and development efforts in the electronic vaporization sector, with new product launches expected to drive growth [6] Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, the company's ToB business revenue was 93.21 billion yuan (down 12.7% YoY), while ToC business revenue was 18.47 billion yuan (up 26.0% YoY) [4] - By region, the company saw a revenue increase in the U.S. market, with ToB sales reaching 40.84 billion yuan (up 8.2% YoY), while revenue from the Chinese market dropped significantly to 1.63 billion yuan (down 92.7% YoY) [4] - The company successfully launched the FEELM Max ceramic atomization core technology platform in Europe and other markets, achieving ToB revenue of 50.74 billion yuan (up 8.9% YoY) [4] Profitability - The company's gross margin decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 38.8% in 2023, attributed to a shift in product mix towards lower-margin disposable products [5] - The net profit margin for 2023 was 14.7%, down 5.9 percentage points YoY, reflecting the impact of product structure adjustments and ongoing investment in expenses [5] Company Outlook - The company plans to continue focusing on the electronic vaporization field while exploring new areas such as medical vaporization and beauty applications, with new product launches expected to enhance growth potential [6]